The likely top 16

[patchick]

It seems to me that the top 16 look relatively set at this point. (Though by April, I'll doubtless look foolish for saying so.) In alphabetical order:

A.J. Green
Aldon Smith
Blaine Gabbert
Cameron Jordan
Cam Newton
DaQuan Bowers
J.J. Watt
Julio Jones
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
OT #1 TBD
OT #2 TBD
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Robert Quinn
Von Miller

Adrian Clayborn probably has the best chance to crash the party; Stephen Paea, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Smith and another QB are long shot possibilities.

Any disagreement? And if not, who the heck do you take at 17? I really don't like that spot at this point. If I'm looking at a choice of Kerrigan, Heyward, Wilkerson and Paea with #17, it's trade time.

 

[Coach42]

Heyward or down or out.

 

[cstjohn17]

It seems to me that the top 16 look relatively set at this point. (Though by April, I'll doubtless look foolish for saying so.) In alphabetical order:

A.J. Green
Aldon Smith
Blaine Gabbert
Cameron Jordan
Cam Newton
DaQuan Bowers
J.J. Watt
Julio Jones
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
OT #1 TBD
OT #2 TBD
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Robert Quinn
Von Miller

Adrian Clayborn probably has the best chance to crash the party; Stephen Paea, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Smith and another QB are long shot possibilities.

Any disagreement? And if not, who the heck do you take at 17? I really don't like that spot at this point. If I'm looking at a choice of Kerrigan, Heyward, Wilkerson and Paea with #17, it's trade time.

It is always a struggle, f-cking Raiders had to go out and be average...

Based on that board I would say it depends on who the offensive tackles are, if two are gone then two of these four would be available and you may get your right tackle for the next 5 years.
Smith, Solder, Carimi, Castonzo

That wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.

Ingram looks to be a pro bowl player for many years, this wouldn't make me kick the tv screen... or least kick it as hard as past years anyway.

Other options
a) The ever popular "Trade back" or "Trade to the future"
b) Trade up and take the front seven defender who can be paired with the rest of the youth movement

 

[bucky]

I would remove "OT #2" and Cam Newton from that list of top 16.

To answer your question of who's next from a Pats perspective, I would say Wilkerson, Hayward, Ayers, Ingram, or a trade down. However, I really expect a trade up.

 

[billdog3484]

It seems to me that the top 16 look relatively set at this point. (Though by April, I'll doubtless look foolish for saying so.) In alphabetical order:

A.J. Green
Aldon Smith
Blaine Gabbert
Cameron Jordan
Cam Newton
DaQuan Bowers
J.J. Watt
Julio Jones
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
OT #1 TBD
OT #2 TBD
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Robert Quinn
Von Miller

Adrian Clayborn probably has the best chance to crash the party; Stephen Paea, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Smith and another QB are long shot possibilities.

Any disagreement? And if not, who the heck do you take at 17? I really don't like that spot at this point. If I'm looking at a choice of Kerrigan, Heyward, Wilkerson and Paea with #17, it's trade time.

you're assuming at least 1 team makes a move not involving these players. not likely people will all do what we all think they will/should

 

[patchick]

you're assuming at least 1 team makes a move not involving these players. not likely people will all do what we all think they will/should

Unfortunately, 1 team choosing outside the 19 players I mentioned wouldn't fix the problem. The 8-10 players I'd want for the Patriots aren't likely to be the ones displaced. IMO the only real possibility to slip to 17 is Aldon Smith.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Well if we have a backdoor deal with Light a 1st round pick is too high for a OL to sit on the bench. Ingram would be a very real option, and I think BB isnt as concerned about over drafting RBs as this board is. I think the mid to late rounds will have alot of movement because its the teams on the top of the 2nd that will need QBs and there will be a rush....and everyone knows we are open for business. So my final answer is a T if Light is gone, Ingram, or a trade down.

 

[patsfanboy]

If that were to happen i would trade down and get Ingram. But i want aldon as our number 17.

 

[sbpatfan]

Unfortunately, 1 team choosing outside the 19 players I mentioned wouldn't fix the problem. The 8-10 players I'd want for the Patriots aren't likely to be the ones displaced. IMO the only real possibility to slip to 17 is Aldon Smith.

You have to remember a lot of teams picking in the top 16 are there for a reason, they do things that don't make sense. Who knows what will actually happen.

 

[sevengables_2207]

Anything is possible for the Patriots in the first round. Maybe this will be the year they move up to take a blue chipper that they feel really fits their shemes.

FWIW, I was just perusing a Kiper chat from this afternoon, and he responded to a question about what the Patriots would do with their first first round pick by saying that he keeps hearing the Patriots will move up to take A.J. Green. I have to admit that an already potent offense that adds a player of Green's ability will doubtless be extremely formidable.

 

[WelshPat]

I watched Paea in college and to me he's a 2 down run stuffer... I'd take him at 33, but not at 17. He's getting a little over hyped IMO.

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

Heyward or down or out.

True that. I happen to think that he will drop down into the 2nd round though. After what Watt put up today he's officially off the board and a lock for the top 12.

 

[Peachhead]

Too many teams have a screaming need at QB. I think more than two QBs go in the top 16...at least that's what I'm keep trying to convince myself of.

It won't surprise me in the slightest to see BB aggrresively move up. Luckily we have the ammo to do it without borking the rest of our draft.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Too many teams have a screaming need at QB. I think more than two QBs go in the top 16...at least that's what I'm keep trying to convince myself of.

It won't surprise me in the slightest to see BB aggrresively move up. Luckily we have the ammo to do it without borking the rest of our draft.

Can't stand Mallett or Locker, but I've been rooting for them like we're related. Would love to see some team get suckered into taking one of them (two would be too much to ask for).

I could see a slight trade-up if a player BB wants is there or if one of the QB-needy teams wants to trade down a few spots so they aren't reaching as much. Otherwise, I think we're moving down as well. Though if we stick, I'd take Heyward.

 

[mgteich]

I do not share your sudden pessimism. I don't think much has changed in a month. Actually surprisngly little has changed.

A couple of weeks ago, we would have been psyched to have a choice between Kerrigan, Wilkerson, Ingram and OT #3. Heyward has always been a wildcard depending on projections of his health.

Obviously, Belichick and the staff will do lots more evaluation. Consider that Spikes was too slow last year. Is Ingram too slow this year? Is Wilkerson too stiff? What has changed since last week.? We have the #9 front seven defensive player, same as last week.

Nothing has changed. We still have reasonable choices if we move to 11-13. We still ahve reasonable choices here. We will still ahve reasonable opportunities to move down within the first round.

It seems to me that the top 16 look relatively set at this point. (Though by April, I'll doubtless look foolish for saying so.) In alphabetical order:

A.J. Green
Aldon Smith
Blaine Gabbert
Cameron Jordan
Cam Newton
DaQuan Bowers
J.J. Watt
Julio Jones
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
OT #1 TBD
OT #2 TBD
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Robert Quinn
Von Miller

Adrian Clayborn probably has the best chance to crash the party; Stephen Paea, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Smith and another QB are long shot possibilities.

Any disagreement? And if not, who the heck do you take at 17? I really don't like that spot at this point. If I'm looking at a choice of Kerrigan, Heyward, Wilkerson and Paea with #17, it's trade time.

 

[Deus Irae]

Call it what you will, but I expect that some QB needy and/or front office silly, team will take a chance on a guy like Locker/Mallett, etc... I'm thinking that at least 3 QBs will go in the top 15.

That could change moving forward, but that's where I'm at right now.

 

[patchick]

I do not share your sudden pessimism. I don't think much has changed in a month. Actually surprisngly little has changed.

A couple of weeks ago, we would have been psyched to have a choice between Kerrigan, Wilkerson, Ingram and OT #3.

Who's "we," mon ami? Personally, I've never, ever wanted Ingram at 17, and I've been hoping to snag Wilkerson at 28. Kerrigan is a guy I've always had profoundly mixed feelings about; I like a lot about him, but I'm not convinced he's what this defense needs.

And come to think of it, I've also said for a while that this seemed like a likely trade-up year. So maybe you're right that not much has changed. You remain cheery about the options at 17, and I remain gloomy!

 

[patchick]

You have to remember a lot of teams picking in the top 16 are there for a reason, they do things that don't make sense. Who knows what will actually happen.

You betcha, something crazy might happen and 16 straight teams will pass on Cam Jordan in favor of the likes of Ryan "Leaf" Mallett, Mike "Not Maurkice" Pouncey, etc. etc. etc.

But banking on that doesn't really count as a draft strategy. Around pick 10 the Pats are probably going to have to make a decision on trading up.

 

[mgteich]

The addition of a QB to the top 15 will allow one more player to drop to us. Perhaps that will make the difference between pessimism and ecstacy. That depends on whether it happens and who the player is.

Call it what you will, but I expect that some QB needy and/or front office silly, team will take a chance on a guy like Locker/Mallett, etc... I'm thinking that at least 3 QBs will go in the top 15.

That could change moving forward, but that's where I'm at right now.

 

[Deus Irae]

The addition of a QB to the top 15 will allow one more player to drop to us. Perhaps that will make the difference between pessimism and ecstacy. That depends on whether it happens and who the player is.

Well, you're rating top 15, the O.P. is rating top 16. Either way, if you toss in one QB and one type of pick, the Patriots would have the option of grabbing someone from that first large tier or using that chip as part of a trade.

Unfortunately, one of the usual drafters is the Raiders, which lessens the number of hopefuls.