Actually D-Day is Thursday March 3rd. If the union decertifies there will be a season albeit under ownerships terms pending litigation by individual players who can afford it that could drag on for 4-6 seasons if the last time this happened (1987-93) is any indication.
If the union doesn't decertify before 11:59PM on the 3rd they can't decertify until September 4th per the CBA. If they don't decertify there will almost certainly be a lockout declared by owners at 12:01AM on the 4th. Unless of course the two sides agree to an interim extension of the old deal, say for 7-14 days more of "negotiating". They would also lose Minnesota Judge Doty who has ruled in their favor countless times because his oversight involvement with the NFL CBA that has been extended continuously from 1993-2010 would end with the end of that CBA. Different judges in different jurisdictions tend to have different views on labor relations matters.
Decertification is a rocky road for both sides since the union would no longer exist except as a trade association and be unable to file grievances for players or negotiate on their behalf. Owners would get everything they want short term but face the risk of losing some things they want (as the result of courts weighing in on anti trust issues) as a result of eventual court rulings. There is also the risk for the union that they cannot get an injunction to preclude a lockout (that is why the league filed a complaint with the NLRB last week contending the decertification would be a sham based on the union's last use of it which was followed by re-certification once they got some leverage based on court rulings). You cannot use it as a hammer, per se.
The union would also be facing a potential uphill battle because they don't have an issue like Free Agency to be adjudicated this time, it's rather a case of not wanting to give back $$$ gained during the last CBA which was negotiated in different economic times and with a gun being held to ownerships heads (people forget Upshaw was threatening to strike unless he got to apply essentially the same % to the new definition of revenue amongst owners for their revenue sharing formula). And they don't want to play 18 games although the existing CBA actually allows for owners to make that change even without their consent. And they don't really want the rookie wage scale, but then again it flies in both the NBA and NHL. Earlier court rulings have indicated that courts are reluctant to rule on matters that can, have and should be collectively bargained.
They really need to find some compromise common ground because historically that is where they will end up eventually, anyway.
