This may be a particularly good year to trade picks forward in time

[Fencer]

If labor problems nuke the offseason, rookies are going to have a harder time contributing their first year than usual.

So the disincentive to trade a pick for one in a future year could be even lower than usual.

Now, there are 32 teams, each of whom may realize the same thing. So the effect on the Patriots' likelihood of getting a favorable trade-ahead deal is hard to predict. Still, I think the point is worth remarking on.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I can understand that argument, and it's been mentioned a few times. But I think the reverse will happen, and picks this year will be valued significantly more. I think it really depends on what you think the final CBA will look like.

If you think it'll be around the 2009 number or even a bit more, then most teams will be in a good position to manage their cap and even add salary, as plenty of teams took advantage of the removal of the cap floor last year.

But if you believe it'll be significantly lower (as I do, say $115-$120M range), then draft picks this year could be deemed more valuable to fill roster spots, especially with the draft before FA.

I expect FA will offer more extremes than in past seasons. There will be fewer big winners, but they could make significantly more as teams know they have to fill that spot since they didn't do it in the draft. The desperation of a few teams will drive up the prices for the few elite guys. However, the majority of FAs may find their leverage dwindling significantly if teams have drafted someone to fill that spot.

A lot will be determined by how quickly the CBA gets put into place and how it looks.

 

[MaineMan]

I can understand that argument, and it's been mentioned a few times. But I think the reverse will happen, and picks this year will be valued significantly more. I think it really depends on what you think the final CBA will look like.

If you think it'll be around the 2009 number or even a bit more, then most teams will be in a good position to manage their cap and even add salary, as plenty of teams took advantage of the removal of the cap floor last year.

But if you believe it'll be significantly lower (as I do, say $115-$120M range), then draft picks this year could be deemed more valuable to fill roster spots, especially with the draft before FA.

I expect FA will offer more extremes than in past seasons. There will be fewer big winners, but they could make significantly more as teams know they have to fill that spot since they didn't do it in the draft. The desperation of a few teams will drive up the prices for the few elite guys. However, the majority of FAs may find their leverage dwindling significantly if teams have drafted someone to fill that spot.

A lot will be determined by how quickly the CBA gets put into place and how it looks.

Either way, the Cowboys could be shedding a lot of guys. Last I saw (though it's awhile ago now) they were up close to $150M for 2010. For that reason alone, they might be willing to trade down out of #9 or even into 2012.

 

[Fencer]

I can understand that argument, and it's been mentioned a few times. But I think the reverse will happen, and picks this year will be valued significantly more. I think it really depends on what you think the final CBA will look like.

If you think it'll be around the 2009 number or even a bit more, then most teams will be in a good position to manage their cap and even add salary, as plenty of teams took advantage of the removal of the cap floor last year.

But if you believe it'll be significantly lower (as I do, say $115-$120M range), then draft picks this year could be deemed more valuable to fill roster spots, especially with the draft before FA.

I expect FA will offer more extremes than in past seasons. There will be fewer big winners, but they could make significantly more as teams know they have to fill that spot since they didn't do it in the draft. The desperation of a few teams will drive up the prices for the few elite guys. However, the majority of FAs may find their leverage dwindling significantly if teams have drafted someone to fill that spot.

A lot will be determined by how quickly the CBA gets put into place and how it looks.

Are you arguing that teams will be in particular cap hell the first year of a new CBA and hence have particular need for cheap talent?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Either way, the Cowboys could be shedding a lot of guys. Last I saw (though it's awhile ago now) they were up close to $150M for 2010. For that reason alone, they might be willing to trade down out of #9 or even into 2012.

I agree that the Cowboys will have trouble getting under the cap but I don't see them trading into 2012. A trade down would make sense, but if one of the top two corners is still on the board, I can't see them doing that either.

Are you arguing that teams will be in particular cap hell the first year of a new CBA and hence have particular need for cheap talent?

A lot of teams took advantage of no cap floor in 2010, but I do think there are still many teams will need the cheap talent to get by. And since players can't be involved in trades, trading to next year means filling a hole via FA, which could be much more expensive. Then again, FA rules will also change the outlook on how big the FA class actually is.

Which is all a wishy-washy way of saying while teams may contemplate going one way or another, I doubt we'll see any team move most of their picks into next year.

 

[MaineMan]

I agree that the Cowboys will have trouble getting under the cap but I don't see them trading into 2012. A trade down would make sense, but if one of the top two corners is still on the board, I can't see them doing that either.



A lot of teams took advantage of no cap floor in 2010, but I do think there are still many teams will need the cheap talent to get by. And since players can't be involved in trades, trading to next year means filling a hole via FA, which could be much more expensive. Then again, FA rules will also change the outlook on how big the FA class actually is.

Which is all a wishy-washy way of saying while teams may contemplate going one way or another, I doubt we'll see any team move most of their picks into next year.

Yeah, kind of casually stupid way to state it on my part. I didn't intend to mean I think they'd push a 1st rounder into 2012 directly, more that they might trade down a ways in the 1st and accept something from 2012 as the difference.

Hard to say what Ryan is likely to do. WRT CB, both their safety positions seem a bit shaky as well and their DE situation seems less than ideal. But Ryan's done better with a bit less, so . . .

OTOH, there's the Jerrah Jones factor. He may want to take that top CB regardless and then figure out the $$ part later. However, it's probably a good bet that he's lobbying vigorously for a higher cap, eh?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Yeah, kind of casually stupid way to state it on my part. I didn't intend to mean I think they'd push a 1st rounder into 2012 directly, more that they might trade down a ways in the 1st and accept something from 2012 as the difference.

Hard to say what Ryan is likely to do. WRT CB, both their safety positions seem a bit shaky as well and their DE situation seems less than ideal. But Ryan's done better with a bit less, so . . .

OTOH, there's the Jerrah Jones factor. He may want to take that top CB regardless and then figure out the $$ part later. However, it's probably a good bet that he's lobbying vigorously for a higher cap, eh?

Gotcha, makes much more sense

Yeah, Jones is pretty unpredictable. Maybe he really is crazy enough to draft a QB. And you're right, he's probably the only owner wanting the higher cap. Or at the very least, some type of grandfathering provision when the new CBA comes into effect.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Either way, the Cowboys could be shedding a lot of guys. Last I saw (though it's awhile ago now) they were up close to $150M for 2010. For that reason alone, they might be willing to trade down out of #9 or even into 2012.

I agree. The reasonable thing for the Cowboys to do is to shed unproductive veteran dead weight from their roster, ie: Romo.

If Dareus is available at #9, he would definitely be worth going up for.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Gotcha, makes much more sense

Yeah, Jones is pretty unpredictable. Maybe he really is crazy enough to draft a QB. And you're right, he's probably the only owner wanting the higher cap. Or at the very least, some type of grandfathering provision when the new CBA comes into effect.

On a minor note: Jerry Jones is not involved in the negotiations at all. The players didn't want him involved b/c they're afraid he'll drive too hard a bargain, and the owners didn't want him b/c they figured he'd try to craft the deal to give the Cowboys a major advantage.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

On a minor note: Jerry Jones is not involved in the negotiations at all. The players didn't want him involved b/c they're afraid he'll drive too hard a bargain, and the owners didn't want him b/c they figured he'd try to craft the deal to give the Cowboys a major advantage.

How much pull does Jones have behind the scenes and if a deal is struck that he does not like, would he need special appeasing in order to get his vote?

 

[MaineMan]

On a minor note: Jerry Jones is not involved in the negotiations at all. The players didn't want him involved b/c they're afraid he'll drive too hard a bargain, and the owners didn't want him b/c they figured he'd try to craft the deal to give the Cowboys a major advantage.

Yeah, I meant "lobbying" literally - as in, pacing around out in the lobby chain-smoking Cuban cigars, button-holing player reps as they come out of negotiations to use the restroom and saying, "You guys are right! The cap should be higher! Stick to your guns in there!"