Draft Scouting - projections and hindsight

[Snake Eyes]

Have any of you guys ever looked at scouting reports of players drafted years ago and then compared those to what they have become in the league? I think that would be an interesting exercise of what actually matters and what doesn't.

Why did one player succeed when another failed? What did the scouts not see that should have been obvious, what did they not see that couldnt not have been seen?

I think analizing the failures and successes in the league relative to their profiles will challenge our presumptions and give us greater insight.

 

[Metaphors]

Have any of you guys ever looked at scouting reports of players drafted years ago and then compared those to what they have become in the league? I think that would be an interesting exercise of what actually matters and what doesn't.

Why did one player succeed when another failed? What did the scouts not see that should have been obvious, what did they not see that couldnt not have been seen?

I think analizing the failures and successes in the league relative to their profiles will challenge our presumptions and give us greater insight.

You see redrafts on various scouting sites. They generally don't dig into the depth you are talking about (or go back and analyze their successes and failures). I think scouting services (not the scouts themselves) as well as draft fans fall into the trap of group-think. It becomes an echo chamber and one passionate opinion (backed by some youtube highlights) can quickly become conventional wisdom.

My belief is that scouts are taking a snapshot in time and projecting without the benefit of knowing future organization, scheme, teammates, coaching, life situations, injuries (as a result of playing bigger/stronger/faster opponents), etc. Is Brady the GOAT if he gets drafted by Cleveland? Or if Bledsoe stays healthy? Does Tim Couch become a punch-line if he developed within the Patriots framework?

Some players would be successful no matter what situation you threw them into. Some players are screw-ups regardless. The vast majority are a combination of talent, work and circumstance...with circumstance playing a significant and underrated role.

 

[Sciz]

I feel like far too many coaches think they can fix guys with poor work ethic, and then wonder why their former first round pick still sucks three years later.

 

[Criptonite]

Have any of you guys ever looked at scouting reports of players drafted years ago and then compared those to what they have become in the league? I think that would be an interesting exercise of what actually matters and what doesn't.

Why did one player succeed when another failed? What did the scouts not see that should have been obvious, what did they not see that couldnt not have been seen?

I think analizing the failures and successes in the league relative to their profiles will challenge our presumptions and give us greater insight.

I love doing that. For many years I've written up scouting reports for my non-draftnik friends. It's always interesting to compare what I wrote back then and how I feel about the players now. I often go back and revisit my writeups to check out players who turned out to be bigtime steals. I like to see if I had any inkling as to their potential success. I feel it also helps me going forward trying to project the next class of incoming rookies.

 

[MaineMan]

You see redrafts on various scouting sites. They generally don't dig into the depth you are talking about (or go back and analyze their successes and failures). I think scouting services (not the scouts themselves) as well as draft fans fall into the trap of group-think. It becomes an echo chamber and one passionate opinion (backed by some youtube highlights) can quickly become conventional wisdom.

My belief is that scouts are taking a snapshot in time and projecting without the benefit of knowing future organization, scheme, teammates, coaching, life situations, injuries (as a result of playing bigger/stronger/faster opponents), etc. Is Brady the GOAT if he gets drafted by Cleveland? Or if Bledsoe stays healthy? Does Tim Couch become a punch-line if he developed within the Patriots framework?

Some players would be successful no matter what situation you threw them into. Some players are screw-ups regardless. The vast majority are a combination of talent, work and circumstance...with circumstance playing a significant and underrated role.

Or the Lions. Doesn't seem to matter how talented a QB is when the Lions draft him, he'll be a basket case by the end of his 4th season regardless. Stafford might not even last THAT long with his injury rate.