Trading for picks in 2012

[Lamanai]

This has been BB’s strategy, moving picks out and up. I like it. However, I could envision these trades being less lucrative this year if a new CBA is not agreed upon by draft time.

First, if no CBA is imminent, rookies would likely miss all of the spring passing camps and possibly training camp. They probably won’t even get to look at the playbook. In missing this key development time, 2011 may be a washout season for many rookies, thereby reducing their prospective value to teams. Result: fewer teams willing to trade future picks for this year’s draftees.

Second, if no CBA is agreed to by draft time, there will not be any rookie salary cap in 2011. But more likely there will be one in 2012. Under this scenario, 2012 picks may become more valuable. This may only apply to 1st round picks.

I wonder if this impacts the relative value of trading picks into the following year?

 

[Off The Grid]

This has been BB’s strategy, moving picks out and up. I like it. However, I could envision these trades being less lucrative this year if a new CBA is not agreed upon by draft time.

First, if no CBA is imminent, rookies would likely miss all of the spring passing camps and possibly training camp. They probably won’t even get to look at the playbook. In missing this key development time, 2011 may be a washout season for many rookies, thereby reducing their prospective value to teams. Result: fewer teams willing to trade future picks for this year’s draftees.

Second, if no CBA is agreed to by draft time, there will not be any rookie salary cap in 2011. But more likely there will be one in 2012. Under this scenario, 2012 picks may become more valuable. This may only apply to 1st round picks.

I wonder if this impacts the relative value of trading picks into the following year?

Very interesting angle, Bro. Well considered.

My take is that, should no CBA get enacted before then, there would be a real yet very mild Discount to the usual Premium, if you will. Ultimately, though, Trading Forward is generally Bad Business, requiring bad judgment. As such, I expect that those who are inclined to do so ~ and there are MANY, Praise the Gods!! ~ will neither be deterred by the chance of a slow start, nor inclined to dig in their heels when negotiating.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

This has been BB’s strategy, moving picks out and up. I like it. However, I could envision these trades being less lucrative this year if a new CBA is not agreed upon by draft time.

First, if no CBA is imminent, rookies would likely miss all of the spring passing camps and possibly training camp. They probably won’t even get to look at the playbook. In missing this key development time, 2011 may be a washout season for many rookies, thereby reducing their prospective value to teams. Result: fewer teams willing to trade future picks for this year’s draftees.

Second, if no CBA is agreed to by draft time, there will not be any rookie salary cap in 2011. But more likely there will be one in 2012. Under this scenario, 2012 picks may become more valuable. This may only apply to 1st round picks.

I wonder if this impacts the relative value of trading picks into the following year?

Like every year, BB will trade picks for next yr. That's why I love to see all these "Mock" pundits having us keep all the picks and take their binky's.

I would not be shocked if we traded down from 17, traded #28 or #33 for 2012 picks. Anything is possible. One thing you won't see pats do is package picks to move up.

Out of 6 picks in 3rds, I expect 2 to be traded into 2012 draft. That's how you keep reloading every year.

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

This has been BB’s strategy, moving picks out and up. I like it. However, I could envision these trades being less lucrative this year if a new CBA is not agreed upon by draft time.

First, if no CBA is imminent, rookies would likely miss all of the spring passing camps and possibly training camp. They probably won’t even get to look at the playbook. In missing this key development time, 2011 may be a washout season for many rookies, thereby reducing their prospective value to teams. Result: fewer teams willing to trade future picks for this year’s draftees.

Second, if no CBA is agreed to by draft time, there will not be any rookie salary cap in 2011. But more likely there will be one in 2012. Under this scenario, 2012 picks may become more valuable. This may only apply to 1st round picks.

I wonder if this impacts the relative value of trading picks into the following year?

The CBA ****show not withstanding I'm really hoping they make a move using 2012 picks to grab picks in 2011.

Barring another record number of Juniors declaring next year that 2012 class stands to be very weak. With the amount of 3rd year eligible players who have declared the last 2 years we're looking at a thin crop similar to the 2007 draft. Facing a weak draft class, BB has shown a willingness to move picks, my hope is that he just uses them a year early.

 

[meggett]

Like every year, BB will trade picks for next yr. That's why I love to see all these "Mock" pundits having us keep all the picks and take their binky's.

I would not be shocked if we traded down from 17, traded #28 or #33 for 2012 picks. Anything is possible. One thing you won't see pats do is package picks to move up.

Out of 6 picks in 3rds, I expect 2 to be traded into 2012 draft. That's how you keep reloading every year.

thats the logic i really cant get on board with. i understand reloading picks for the next year, but if we never actually use the picks, what good are they? i would expect, after a rookie wage scale is agreed upon, we will be trading down less, at least in the first round. as it wouldnt be such a financial risk to go get an early round talent. what could make things interesting is if a new CBA is agreed on before the draft, we have the ammo to actually move up and grab a AJ Green or Julio Jones, and of course depending on the rookie wage scale, could get them for considerably less than it would have cost us last year, on a 5 or 6 year deal.

 

[Off The Grid]

The CBA ****show not withstanding I'm really hoping they make a move using 2012 picks to grab picks in 2011.

Barring another record number of Juniors declaring next year that 2012 class stands to be very weak. With the amount of 3rd year eligible players who have declared the last 2 years we're looking at a thin crop similar to the 2007 draft. Facing a weak draft class, BB has shown a willingness to move picks, my hope is that he just uses them a year early.

Ahhhh...Trade FORWARD, out of an anticipated weak class. VERY interesting...

As stated above, I USUALLY find that to be a fundamentally unsound policy. Indeed, it is only because Coach Bill has acquired such a wealth of Picks that I floated my radical idea, this past Spring, to roll the Raider Pick forward, in pursuit of San Fran's 2nd 1st Rounder, as the likes of Marquis de Pouncey don't come along very often.

So while I'm not on board with your approach, I salute the creativity and forward thinking whence it came.

If the 2012 Draft Class DOES turn out weak ~ as opposed to every last 2014 Red Shirt Sophomore stampeding to fill the void ~ my approach would simply be to Trade Back, as we did in 2007.

Still...I LOVE your sense of GREED.

 

[jeffbiologist]

While some may say draft picks may not be as valuable because of the learning the playbook stuff......the fact remains that because the draft is before Free Agency alot of teams will be looking to shore up cheap starting positions with draft picks instead of paying the premium. Because of this draft picks will be more valuable this year than any for any team.

 

[townes]

First they have to see how the draft falls because it makes little sense to move picks to the following draft if they have the players they want out of this one right in front of them.

Second they have to take into consideration, however unlikely, the CBA negotiations going completely south and the Players Union using the one real card they hold, decertification and an Antitrust lawsuit against the league, which could mean no bargaining partner and no draft in coming years. The draft is only legal because the union has a deal in place with the owners allowing it as the vehicle for obtaining players, with no union every player would be a free agent from the start and the owners would have no right to dictate to incoming players where they go or don't go.

 

[Mogamedogz]

I know this board hates it, but I'd love to see him gather enough Ammo to move up to #1 land Andrew Luck next year if a Rookie Wage scale is in place (which most believe will).

 

[townes]

I know this board hates it, but I'd love to see him gather enough Ammo to move up to #1 land Andrew Luck next year if a Rookie Wage scale is in place (which most believe will).

And seven years from now he can start.

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

And seven years from now he can start.

but hell b soooooOOOoo awsum then!!!!1!11!

 

[Mogamedogz]

And seven years from now he can start.

Right...

Because Brady has 7 good years left in him.

Only in this forum will you read such out of touch with reality nonsense.

ETA: Brady will be 35yrs old going into lucks Rookie year. Lets say he sits just TWO seasons behind TFB. You don't think it would be a solid idea to have a groomed stud going into camp to battle it out with a 37yr old Tom Brady?

Brett Favre was a completely washed up 38yr old when the team FINALLY decided to give him the boot for Rodgers.

Does Brady appear to be the kind of guy who is going to try and hang on longer than he should? My money would be on Peyton being that guy.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Right...

Because Brady has 7 good years left in him.

Only in this forum will you read such out of touch with reality nonsense.

With all due respect, how is trading up for Andrew Luck reflective of reality?

 

[Mogamedogz]

With all due respect, how is trading up for Andrew Luck reflective of reality?

How much do you think it would take to get into the top 3? You dont think we have enough ammo between this year and next? We have 175 freaking draft picks stockpiled... may as well cash them in for a player that is actually worth it.

 

[Deus Irae]

...Brett Favre was a completely washed up 38yr old when the team FINALLY decided to give him the boot for Rodgers....

I assume that you realize this is absolutely false, right?

 

[dhamz]

Second, if no CBA is agreed to by draft time, there will not be any rookie salary cap in 2011. But more likely there will be one in 2012. Under this scenario, 2012

The CBA does not need to be agreed to before the draft for it to include a rookie cap for 2011.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

How much do you think it would take to get into the top 3? You dont think we have enough ammo between this year and next? We have 175 freaking draft picks stockpiled... may as well cash them in for a player that is actually worth it.

The last time someone traded up to #1 was the Rivers-Manning trade, and the Giants traded their 2004 third and their 2005 first and fifth. . . . to move up three spots.

 

[Mogamedogz]

I assume that you realize this is absolutely false, right?

Which part? That Favre was washed up? I'll give you that was probably an overstatement... But had Rodgers Been put in a year sooner... maybe they win that game in '07.

 

[letekro]

I know this board hates it, but I'd love to see him gather enough Ammo to move up to #1 land Andrew Luck next year if a Rookie Wage scale is in place (which most believe will).

What "ammo" do you have in mind? Assuming he plays as well or better then he did last year, we will be talking about a Herschel Walker type trade to get it done (especially with the Pats who will be picking towards the bottom of the draft for the foreseeable future). I can't believe you would seriously advocate setting the franchise back years in terms of draft picks to draft someone who MAY be a starter in 5 years.

 

[Deus Irae]

Which part? That Favre was washed up? I'll give you that was probably an overstatement... But had Rodgers Been put in a year sooner... maybe they win that game in '07.

Overstatement? In 2008, Favre had the Jets at 8-3 before getting hurt. In 2009, he was an MVP candidate, and one of only 4 players to get a vote for the award. He was nowhere near "completely washed up".