Different draft stratagies without CBA

[jeffbiologist]

Facing a potentially unique situation I would suggest differing ways teams could maximize their dollars come draft days.
First, with Free Agency after the draft I would guess immediate holes have to be shored up and "best player available" will fall by the wayside. Suddenly our needs shift from DE/OLB to OT/G.
Second positions that require the most amount of prep would be emphasized in the draft over Free Agents. RBs de-emphasized, it would be more likely we pick one up later in Free Agency.
Third, and maybe most important, if some owners are convinced that no agreement will be reached and significant amount of games missed than I can see superior value in drafting players with injuries that would otherwise impact the '11 season. Redshirts too. For example a guy like our Tate who basically redshirted his first year we got in the 3rd round who may have been first round talent(ya, right) otherwise.
If teams dont change their strategies and hope to count on their existing FAs(Light/Mankins-though technically not a FA)the players have alot more leverage after the CBA is reached. This will count more $$ against a future cap. Having prospects in place can surely help the team in negotiations. The more time they have in getting drafted players to speed(NFL ready)in certain positions the more successful the draft, right? Not to say the drafted players will get the coaching they need.....but they obviously will have the time to get their bodies and technical deficiencies worked on before they are thrown in the mix. Anyone have any other strategic differences??

 

[Patriot Missile]

Facing a potentially unique situation I would suggest differing ways teams could maximize their dollars come draft days.
First, with Free Agency after the draft I would guess immediate holes have to be shored up and "best player available" will fall by the wayside. Suddenly our needs shift from DE/OLB to OT/G.
Second positions that require the most amount of prep would be emphasized in the draft over Free Agents. RBs de-emphasized, it would be more likely we pick one up later in Free Agency.
Third, and maybe most important, if some owners are convinced that no agreement will be reached and significant amount of games missed than I can see superior value in drafting players with injuries that would otherwise impact the '11 season. Redshirts too. For example a guy like our Tate who basically redshirted his first year we got in the 3rd round who may have been first round talent(ya, right) otherwise.
If teams dont change their strategies and hope to count on their existing FAs(Light/Mankins-though technically not a FA)the players have alot more leverage after the CBA is reached. This will count more $$ against a future cap. Having prospects in place can surely help the team in negotiations. The more time they have in getting drafted players to speed(NFL ready)in certain positions the more successful the draft, right? Not to say the drafted players will get the coaching they need.....but they obviously will have the time to get their bodies and technical deficiencies worked on before they are thrown in the mix. Anyone have any other strategic differences??

I'm bummed over this cba. It runs much deeper than just finacial negotiations. It's messing with our mock drafts in a big way

 

[onegr8om]

I'm pretty sure that even though we draft a player, that player cant step foot into the facility or playbook until the lockout is over. So i'm not sure if this theory holds water.

 

[MaineMan]

I'm pretty sure that even though we draft a player, that player cant step foot into the facility or playbook until the lockout is over. So i'm not sure if this theory holds water.

To be sure, with no CBA the draft isn't really anything more than a claim on the future rights to the draftees within the NFL since they couldn't actually be signed to any contracts. And they wouldn't be allowed into NFL facilities for workouts or rehab.

However, most draftees would likely still have access to their school's facilities and/or private workout/training camps. Also, it's not like a lockout could somehow prevent all private contact between coaches and draftees. It's not as if it would be totally impossible for playbooks or parts thereof to find their way into draftees hands. It's not the same, of course, as actually being in the team facility and participating in OTAs, etc. But it's not like these guys will be limited to sitting on their thumbs, either.

 

[Wilfork#75]

First, with Free Agency after the draft I would guess immediate holes have to be shored up and "best player available" will fall by the wayside. Suddenly our needs shift from DE/OLB to OT/G.

I don't really agree that teams won't go "best player available" because the draft is before free agency. I know its not the most credible source but both Todd McShay and Mel Kiper believe that with the draft before free agency, teams will be more likely to go BPA because they still have the ability to fill holes after the draft through free agency. In the end I don't think their will be a huge adjustment to teams draft strategies, especially for the Pats because of the number of picks and few needs. BB will just do what he thinks is best for the team, regardless of the new CBA.

 

[Coach42]

For the most part I think teams probably have some idea of were their own free agents heads are at. The wildcard is other teams free agents.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Facing a potentially unique situation I would suggest differing ways teams could maximize their dollars come draft days.
First, with Free Agency after the draft I would guess immediate holes have to be shored up and "best player available" will fall by the wayside. Suddenly our needs shift from DE/OLB to OT/G.
Second positions that require the most amount of prep would be emphasized in the draft over Free Agents. RBs de-emphasized, it would be more likely we pick one up later in Free Agency.
Third, and maybe most important, if some owners are convinced that no agreement will be reached and significant amount of games missed than I can see superior value in drafting players with injuries that would otherwise impact the '11 season. Redshirts too. For example a guy like our Tate who basically redshirted his first year we got in the 3rd round who may have been first round talent(ya, right) otherwise.
If teams dont change their strategies and hope to count on their existing FAs(Light/Mankins-though technically not a FA)the players have alot more leverage after the CBA is reached. This will count more $$ against a future cap. Having prospects in place can surely help the team in negotiations. The more time they have in getting drafted players to speed(NFL ready)in certain positions the more successful the draft, right? Not to say the drafted players will get the coaching they need.....but they obviously will have the time to get their bodies and technical deficiencies worked on before they are thrown in the mix. Anyone have any other strategic differences??

It is a good topic Jeff, and something I have thought alot about. My 2 cents:

I think the strategy 'filling the hole' will be more true than usual for certain positions in the draft. If you are feks. Arizona without a starting QB, then you cannot be sure (if FA comes after the draft) who or what you will get in FA. Maybe you can't afford (or don't wan't to pay) top dollar for a starting vet QB. Or those vet QB prices will be pushed even higher as teams fight for those few. So then, IMO, that will push up the value of the Lockers, the Mallets, Newtons of the class. Every team knows you can't get to the playoffs without a decent QB. That will push the demand for the top 5-7 draft QB's - but not the middle/late round 'put them on the bench for a few years and see what develops' QB. The top tier QB's will go higher in the draft if no FA period before.

I see the same logic for other critical positions. There are just some positions that you have to have good caliber players at or your team will suffer badly. Positions such as left tackle, CB, #1 WR, nose tackle (3/4 D's). If you don't have a LT, a starting caliber CB, or a #1 WR - then those positions in the upcoming draft will be higher in demand than normal but only for the top tier talent - ie. could possibly start during '11 season.

Consequently - for those other positions that are not as critical - guards, centers, running backs, punters, etc - the opposite will be true. Instead of targeting mid-round players who might not get OTA time to learn the pro game and develope their technique with good NFL coaching - free agents at those positions will get a bidding war for their services as they can quicker adapt to a new teams system with limited OTA's. Naturally the teams will try extra hard to keep their own players unless they just changed coaches / systems. Teams with a total coaching overhaul will be screwed as neither their new players nor former players will have much time to learn the new system, playbook, etc.

In all of the above scenarios, you gotta like how NEP are sitting. Stable coaching staff and system, few key FA's, good depth, cap in good shape (if there is one) , high quality starters at key positions (QB, CB, Volmer if Light isn't resigned). Maybe it is just wishfull thinking on my part, but I really believe if the draft is before FA, then those critical positions (QB, CB, LT) will be even more in demand than usual. Cause you can't be sure what you will get in FA - or even WHEN those FA's you contract will be on your team (one month before the season starts?)

 

[CTHuskies]

Facing a potentially unique situation I would suggest differing ways teams could maximize their dollars come draft days.
First, with Free Agency after the draft I would guess immediate holes have to be shored up and "best player available" will fall by the wayside. Suddenly our needs shift from DE/OLB to OT/G.
Second positions that require the most amount of prep would be emphasized in the draft over Free Agents. RBs de-emphasized, it would be more likely we pick one up later in Free Agency.
Third, and maybe most important, if some owners are convinced that no agreement will be reached and significant amount of games missed than I can see superior value in drafting players with injuries that would otherwise impact the '11 season. Redshirts too. For example a guy like our Tate who basically redshirted his first year we got in the 3rd round who may have been first round talent(ya, right) otherwise.
If teams dont change their strategies and hope to count on their existing FAs(Light/Mankins-though technically not a FA)the players have alot more leverage after the CBA is reached. This will count more $$ against a future cap. Having prospects in place can surely help the team in negotiations. The more time they have in getting drafted players to speed(NFL ready)in certain positions the more successful the draft, right? Not to say the drafted players will get the coaching they need.....but they obviously will have the time to get their bodies and technical deficiencies worked on before they are thrown in the mix. Anyone have any other strategic differences??

With Free Agency after the draft:

1. Immediate holes have to be shored up and "best player available" will fall by the wayside. You may be right, however, I think all teams use a blend of both [BPA vs, need] every year. Big FAs are signed before the draft but there are plenty of holes filled after July 1 each year with lesser FA and releases.

2. Positions that require the most amount of prep would be emphasized in the draft. I disagree, I think without off-season programs, OTAs and the possibility of lock out into the summer, teams may emphasis experienced college players (after the first round) over early entrees. They are also less likely to take changes on rookies with character issues since they may have a lot of time to get into trouble before you can get them into your program.

3. If some owners are convinced that no agreement will be reached and significant amount of games missed than I can see superior value in drafting players with injuries that would otherwise impact the '11 season. I can see some merit in taking injured players who are superior character people for all the reasons noted in #2 above.

4. Anyone have any other strategic differences?? I have been trying to figure out just what the impact of no CBA after the draft. The most pessimistic view is that the owners lock out the players, negotiations drag on until August and the season is shortened. If that were to happen, how valuable will any of this year’s draft picks be? It would be the rare talent (or lack of talent – see TBC) who would able to help this year? Again, no mimi camps, OTA, weight programs, etc. I think we can agree BB looks for value [if he thinks he can get his player by trading down he does] in the draft. I could see teams such as the Patriots trading out of this draft, not entirely but at least 1 pick in 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds since all picks this year will be very little help to their teams – think Taylor Price!:bricks:

 

[SunnyDenmark]

With Free Agency after the draft:

1. Immediate holes have to be shored up and "best player available" will fall by the wayside. You may be right, however, I think all teams use a blend of both [BPA vs, need] every year. Big FAs are signed before the draft but there are plenty of holes filled after July 1 each year with lesser FA and releases.

2. Positions that require the most amount of prep would be emphasized in the draft. I disagree, I think without off-season programs, OTAs and the possibility of lock out into the summer, teams may emphasis experienced college players (after the first round) over early entrees. They are also less likely to take changes on rookies with character issues since they may have a lot of time to get into trouble before you can get them into your program.

3. If some owners are convinced that no agreement will be reached and significant amount of games missed than I can see superior value in drafting players with injuries that would otherwise impact the '11 season. I can see some merit in taking injured players who are superior character people for all the reasons noted in #2 above.

4. Anyone have any other strategic differences?? I have been trying to figure out just what the impact of no CBA after the draft. The most pessimistic view is that the owners lock out the players, negotiations drag on until August and the season is shortened. If that were to happen, how valuable will any of this year’s draft picks be? It would be the rare talent (or lack of talent – see TBC) who would able to help this year? Again, no mimi camps, OTA, weight programs, etc. I think we can agree BB looks for value [if he thinks he can get his player by trading down he does] in the draft. I could see teams such as the Patriots trading out of this draft, not entirely but at least 1 pick in 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds since all picks this year will be very little help to their teams – think Taylor Price!:bricks:

Yes, I agree with most of your line of thinking. The following types will be more of a benefit IMO (with limited to no OTA's)

Seniors vs underclassman - as Seniors will be less negatively affected by lack of OTA's as they have more mature bodies, minds, played game longer so more likely better technique. All of which help them quicker make transition to NFL game with only limited OTA's than some 'one year wonder' underclassman.

Major conference players (SEC, Big 10, Pac 10 etc)- as that game closer to NFL level (speed , pro style offenses) so bigger chance players from those conferences can make impact in rookie year with no OTA's.

True 3/4 OLB vs. DE conversions. As those conversion players will have a tough time rookie year with little / no offseason work.

How will a player like Quinn do rookie year when not having played senior season and no offseason time to get back the 'hitting' condition. Or any other player who got injured early in the last collegiate season? Their rookie seasons could really be tough.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I don't really agree that teams won't go "best player available" because the draft is before free agency. I know its not the most credible source but both Todd McShay and Mel Kiper believe that with the draft before free agency, teams will be more likely to go BPA because they still have the ability to fill holes after the draft through free agency. In the end I don't think their will be a huge adjustment to teams draft strategies, especially for the Pats because of the number of picks and few needs. BB will just do what he thinks is best for the team, regardless of the new CBA.

Well, this is the reason the Pats extended Woody mid season. By now they know which of their guys they could lose, even Light might demand too much coming off a Pro Bowl year. If we have a first round pick drafted to play RT, safe to say he should be able to play this year even if behind Kaczur. Vollmer to LT, now we have LEVERAGE and dont have to pay market value...for a LT that is significant. Drafting the same guy in say round 2-3 its no longer safe to say he could step in and play. Each move causes ripples. Now looking at some FA positions it seems like some are deeper than others. No chance we draft a WR with 3 young guys and the plethora of FA's in the wings. I think it more important than ever being able to ID starters in the draft because they will save you more money this year. With the Brady's blind side in question the draft will tell us what their intentions are in free agency.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

2. Positions that require the most amount of prep would be emphasized in the draft. I disagree, I think without off-season programs, OTAs and the possibility of lock out into the summer, teams may emphasis experienced college players (after the first round) over early entrees. They are also less likely to take changes on rookies with character issues since they may have a lot of time to get into trouble before you can get them into your program.

I agree with this line of thinking, especially with FA coming after the draft. If you're drafting a potential guy who won't be at your facility for a while, you still probably need to sign a FA for that position as security. So it makes sense to take on the more polished guys who are ready to contribute sooner.

4. Anyone have any other strategic differences?? I have been trying to figure out just what the impact of no CBA after the draft. The most pessimistic view is that the owners lock out the players, negotiations drag on until August and the season is shortened. If that were to happen, how valuable will any of this year’s draft picks be? It would be the rare talent (or lack of talent – see TBC) who would able to help this year? Again, no mimi camps, OTA, weight programs, etc. I think we can agree BB looks for value [if he thinks he can get his player by trading down he does] in the draft. I could see teams such as the Patriots trading out of this draft, not entirely but at least 1 pick in 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds since all picks this year will be very little help to their teams – think Taylor Price!:bricks:

Price didn't do much his first season, true. Then again, Tom Brady was absolutely useless his first season I'm not saying Price will be the next Jerry Rice, just that the first season doesn't make or break a career.

A lot of teams are probably considering trading into next year, but it'd be hard to find a trade partner for one thing. Though as you said, BB is big on value. But if everyone is looking to trade picks to next year, the real value might be in trading picks from next year's class into this year if he can get a good exchange rate.

With a potential cap reduction, I could see draft picks becoming even more valuable as cheap labour to fill roster holes.

 

[Fencer]

I don't see why any team would draft a rookie QB out of desperate first-year need, ESPECIALLY in a year when OTAs are limited.

The chance that he fills the need is too low to get desperate over.

 

[Fencer]

The more I think about it, the more surprised I am at how LITTLE effect the CBA is likely to have on the Pats' draft strategy.

QB, K, P, LS, TE, ILB -- no real draft need either way
CB, NT, C -- FA seems of little relevance
DE -- except for Gerald Warren, ditto
S -- with all due respect to Page, ditto, unless you think the CBA affects the chance of trading Meriweather one way or the other
OLB -- ditto, unless you think the Pats are going back to the FA well where they got Colvin and Thomas
OT -- either they come out of FA with two returning starters or three. That swing shouldn't have a big effect on draft strategy.
OG -- even with a CBA, Mankins might not come to a resolution quickly. So it's not clear the lack of a CBA makes much difference. (But see below.)
RB -- we won't really know if Faulk is coming back and sticking until well into the offseason. Taylor is probably gone either way. But Morris/Heath Evans/Pierre Thomas/whoever -- yeah, that's affected by the CBA.
WR -- yep, the Pats are reasonable candidates to sign a quasi-starting WR (although Welker would get reps over the "#2" receiver anyhow), and that is affected by the CBA.

As for lack of ability to coach guys up in the offseason, possibly bigger rosters, etc. -- I'm not sure how that affects draft strategy much, given that the Pats are set with some reasonable facsimile of a starter and starter-like sub-package player at every position except perhaps OG.

So the three positions affected by the CBA are OG, broken-down RB, and broken-down WR. Big whoop.