National Football Post Mock

[mgteich]

It is very difficult to find a college DE or OLB who Belichick projects as a higher value as a pass-rusher than do GM's of 4-3 teams.

Consider the first two rounds. Belichick is drafting players to develop into 3-4 OLBs. Others are drafting starting DE's or OLB's.

We are looking at the same players. Who should be valuing these players most highly?

Are there really 1st or 2nd round 3-4 OLB prospects that should be more highly by 3-4 teams than by 4-3 teams. If there is such a player, then this is where we might focus.

Was Cunningham such a player?

.And what does any of this have to do with BB spending a 1st round pick on a guy who doesn't fit his base scheme?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

It is very difficult to find a college DE or OLB who Belichick projects as a higher value as a pass-rusher than do GM's of 4-3 teams.

Consider the first two rounds. Belichick is drafting players to develop into 3-4 OLBs. Others are drafting starting DE's or OLB's.

We are looking at the same players. Who should be valuing these players most highly?

Are there really 1st or 2nd round 3-4 OLB prospects that should be more highly by 3-4 teams than by 4-3 teams. If there is such a player, then this is where we might focus.

Was Cunningham such a player?

Cunningham is a complete mystery to me. While he does have a quick first step, he is horribly slow, lacks strength, instincts and intelligence. While some say he really came on 2/3 of the way through his freshman season for us, I say he still looked very lost and robotic for us. Clearly his head was still spinning by the end of the season.

Does he have upside for 2011, probably, however.........

As long as BB values run stopping over suddenness as the first ingredient in an OLB, we will never get the player we want.

In my mind Cunningham was a low risk pilot test to see if a sudden player could thrive at OLB in his defense. The injury devastation on the D Line may have washed out any meaningful results for BB, but it clearly showed me that we NEED sudden players for the OLB spot.

Von Miller is the most sudden player in this draft. But he also projects as the worst run defender.

IF BB takes Miller at #17, then he can line him up on Mayo's side and let Mayo clean up Miller's run stopping short comings, while upgrading the pass rush nearly 100 percent.

However that means the 2 extremely slow Florida players (Spikes and Cunningham) man the other side and that scares me a bit. Or Ninkovich and Fletcher pass them on the depth chart with TBC replacing Wilfork in passing situations.

 

[MaineMan]

It is very difficult to find a college DE or OLB who Belichick projects as a higher value as a pass-rusher than do GM's of 4-3 teams.

Consider the first two rounds. Belichick is drafting players to develop into 3-4 OLBs. Others are drafting starting DE's or OLB's.

We are looking at the same players. Who should be valuing these players most highly?

Are there really 1st or 2nd round 3-4 OLB prospects that should be more highly by 3-4 teams than by 4-3 teams. If there is such a player, then this is where we might focus.

Was Cunningham such a player?

My thinking is that BB, for his base scheme, doesn't value demonstrated pass-rush ability in 3-4 DE candidates or DE-OLB conversion candidates as much as other teams might. So, BB might have higher values on guys that the market in general values at a somewhat lower level and vice versa.

So, while the market (IOW, teams whose schemes dictate different evaluations) might bid Von Miller up into the top 5, BB might have a higher rating - for his scheme - on a guy like, say, Brooks Reed, who he can get at #60. [Disclaimer: I'm not particularly touting Reed, just using him as a casual example.]

Similarly, BB might value the size and 2-gap run-stopping potential of, say, Watt, Heyward or Wilkerson over the "get after it" qualities of a Dareus or a Bowers.

"Attacking 3-4" teams and 4-3 teams might not place as high a value on some of these guys.
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Post-script: The point of my original response to DW Toys was that, yes, BB has acquired/had guys for the roster (arguably for rosters of the past that were already more "complete", scheme-wise) that were not exactly "scheme fits". But he hasn't spent much in draft pick value on them and the guys mentioned seemed somewhat more like "filling in around the edges" or circumstantial acquisitions to me. So, I don't see how any of these guys supports the idea that BB would necessarily take a "non-fit" (or even a partial-fit) guy with an early pick if he's missing critical scheme pieces, like "his" type of 3-4 DE, and one is available early..

 

[Ochmed Jones]

My thinking is that BB, for his base scheme, doesn't value demonstrated pass-rush ability in 3-4 DE candidates or DE-OLB conversion candidates as much as other teams might. So, BB might have higher values on guys that the market in general values at a somewhat lower level and vice versa.

So, while the market (IOW, teams whose schemes dictate different evaluations) might bid Von Miller up into the top 5, BB might have a higher rating - for his scheme - on a guy like, say, Brooks Reed, who he can get at #60. [Disclaimer: I'm not particularly touting Reed, just using him as a casual example.]

Similarly, BB might value the size and 2-gap run-stopping potential of, say, Watt, Heyward or Wilkerson over the "get after it" qualities of a Dareus or a Bowers.

"Attacking 3-4" teams and 4-3 teams might not place as high a value on some of these guys.

This is true, BB does project every player into his schemes, offensive, defensive and even special teams. And that is why BB drafts players like McCourty and we all scratch our heads but when those players get on the field, we all acknowledge it was a decent pick.

This is why draftniks and ourselves have such a hard time mocking Patriot picks.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Von Miller is Dwight Freeney 2.0. He would be great in a Colts 4-3 style defense, but he'll be run on all day. He's 235 lbs. BB didn't even sniff at Clay Matthews who was bigger, taller, weighed 245 lbs at around this time of the year and probably plays at 250 now in the pros. Luckily, thanks to the hype Miller will be drafted in the top 10 so that will be out of our hands anyways and hopefully pushes another talented player who does fit our system down to us.

I'm all aboard with Watts or another similar player at 17. The Pats need a stud DE and I don't see why people can't understand that a stud DE who demands double teams is as much of a pass rusher in the Pats system as an OLB, and is probably more important.

BTW I'd be happy to nab Phil Taylor at 60 if he lasts that long. Big uglies up front impact football games. Just rewatch this years Steelers/Packers matchup. Though of course Pack had Matthews as well as the uglies. Pats DL right now is not as good as the Packers DL though. And that's a problem not having those monsters up front with our style of 3-4.

 

[upstater1]

Anyone who watched the Packers washout on the edge last night should probably be rethinking the pass rushing emphasis. A special player like Matthews was able to cause a fumble that changed the tide of the game, but otherwise he was being had.

It makes me emphasize stopping the run first and then worry about the pass rush. It also makes me want two shutdown corners instead of one.

Obviously what the team really needs is another Seymour who can collapse the pocket, and then all this worry about a pass rush would become moot. He would crater the pocket a bit, allowing for an extra man to blitz.

I'm talking Nick Fairley here--the only one who fits the bill.

 

[SanAngeloState]

Anyone who watched the Packers washout on the edge last night should probably be rethinking the pass rushing emphasis. A special player like Matthews was able to cause a fumble that changed the tide of the game, but otherwise he was being had.

It makes me emphasize stopping the run first and then worry about the pass rush. It also makes me want two shutdown corners instead of one.

Obviously what the team really needs is another Seymour who can collapse the pocket, and then all this worry about a pass rush would become moot. He would crater the pocket a bit, allowing for an extra man to blitz.

I'm talking Nick Fairley here--the only one who fits the bill.

cameroon heyward also is very strong at the point. He is the pick at #28...possibly even #17.

 

[JackBauer]

Anyone who watched the Packers washout on the edge last night should probably be rethinking the pass rushing emphasis. A special player like Matthews was able to cause a fumble that changed the tide of the game, but otherwise he was being had.

It makes me emphasize stopping the run first and then worry about the pass rush. It also makes me want two shutdown corners instead of one.

Obviously what the team really needs is another Seymour who can collapse the pocket, and then all this worry about a pass rush would become moot. He would crater the pocket a bit, allowing for an extra man to blitz.

I'm talking Nick Fairley here--the only one who fits the bill.

Isn't Cullen Jenkins a FA?

 

[MaineMan]

Isn't Cullen Jenkins a FA?

The usual rumors that the Pack will tag him are already circulating. Beyond that, he's a pretty dinged-up 29-year-old, only 6'3"/292, primarily a gap-penetrator and doesn't tackle all that well. Sounds like a bunch of guys we already have.

 

[MaineMan]

Anyone who watched the Packers washout on the edge last night should probably be rethinking the pass rushing emphasis. A special player like Matthews was able to cause a fumble that changed the tide of the game, but otherwise he was being had.

It makes me emphasize stopping the run first and then worry about the pass rush. It also makes me want two shutdown corners instead of one.

Obviously what the team really needs is another Seymour who can collapse the pocket, and then all this worry about a pass rush would become moot. He would crater the pocket a bit, allowing for an extra man to blitz.

I'm talking Nick Fairley here--the only one who fits the bill.

I see him as an undisciplined gap-shooter, so I'm not sure he fits at all. Moreover, if he's "the only one", then we're kinda screwed since we'd probably need to trade nearly all the rest of our picks to go up and get him. He's kinda off the table for me unless he falls to #15 or so, which seems highly unlikely.

 

[SanAngeloState]

I see him as an undisciplined gap-shooter, so I'm not sure he fits at all. Moreover, if he's "the only one", then we're kinda screwed since we'd probably need to trade nearly all the rest of our picks to go up and get him. He's kinda off the table for me unless he falls to #15 or so, which seems highly unlikely.

cameron kenny er heyward was said on another site to be the most 2 gaap ready 3-4 de they'd ever SEEN!

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