Re-sign Light or an OT at 17

[mgteich]

Maybe the #9 or #10 front 7 defender will indeed have a better grade than the four OT's that have been given 1st round grades, perhaps not.

The drafts I just checked had Kerrigan, Watt, Jordan and Houston available along with the four OT's.

One of the top 4 OT's may be available at 28, or not.

My BOTTOM LINE, is that the VALUE of an OT goes up considerably if Light is not re-signed.

I can. Chances are there will be a front-seven defender on the board that carries a higher grade than any available OT. Combine that with BBs history (Light and Vollmer in 2nd, Kaczur, Kenyatta Jones in 4th) and the presence of guys like LeVoir and Ojinnaka on the roster, I'll be shocked if OT is the call at #17.

Bottom line is that I'm not sure that the OT available will carry first round grades. Right now the only guy I have a 1st round grade on is Carimi. Other GMs will reach for Costonzo, Solder, and others on perceived upside, but Belichick will more likely take a guy with potential later in the draft I think.

 

[andrewgarrr]

I don't see why they can't do both as long as they get a tackle that is capable of playing guard. I'm not opposed to bringing Light back as long as it's just 2 or 3 years. He's a pretty average LT at this point.

Tackles capable of playing guard are rare, and often not very good at one position or the other.

Taking a LT in the first round usually means you plan on starting him at some point in the season. If they resign Light, he'll probably be making enough money where they would feel obligated to start him. If he takes a veteran's minimum with high incentives then I can understand drafting an OT and resigning Light. LTs customarily (especially the ones with first round grades) do no require a lot of new coaching or development to be fairly successful in the NFL. If they resign Light they might as well wait on drafting an LT in the first round and take a LT next year in the draft or the year after. There are other pressing needs on the team that require development and coaching, more so than OT (if we resign Light).

If we resign Light, I would be opposed to drafting an OT in the second round as well considering Kaczur's return. We have considerable depth at the position, granted Light returns.

 

[stinkypete]

Light's still doing pretty well given his age. Still struggles with speed rushers, but when hasn't he? I don't see the talent at OL in the top 20 this year. I'd take Soldier or Sherrod at #27, but needy teams are going to reach for those guys.

Bring back Light. Use the early picks to complete the D. Shore up the OL in the mid-rounds.

 

[MaineMan]

Tackles capable of playing guard are rare, and often not very good at one position or the other.

Taking a LT in the first round usually means you plan on starting him at some point in the season. If they resign Light, he'll probably be making enough money where they would feel obligated to start him. If he takes a veteran's minimum with high incentives then I can understand drafting an OT and resigning Light. LTs customarily (especially the ones with first round grades) do no require a lot of new coaching or development to be fairly successful in the NFL. If they resign Light they might as well wait on drafting an LT in the first round and take a LT next year in the draft or the year after. There are other pressing needs on the team that require development and coaching, more so than OT (if we resign Light).

If we resign Light, I would be opposed to drafting an OT in the second round as well considering Kaczur's return. We have considerable depth at the position, granted Light returns.

Added value, then, in Danny Watkins perhaps - looked great at OG at the Senior Bowl after starting all his 24 games at Baylor at LT.

OT could still be a later pickup for a Dante project to potentially upgrade over LeVoir/Ojinnaka. Pats reps reportedly spoke with Barksdale at the Shrine Game. Barksdale weighed-in at 6046/336. Not all that thrilled with him - Shrine practice notes labeled him as "passive" - already slid down to #92. James Carpenter might be another OT > OG conversion - 6048/313, good notes at Senior Bowl practices - currently ranked #115. Also, James Brewer - 6063/323, ranked #129 - got some good practice notes at the Senior Bowl.

 

[Shelterdog]

I look at the o-line this way:

1.) Ideally you need 7 pretty talented guys (five starters who on average are very good, a very good swing tackle who can play right away, and a decent third interior lineman who can play right away). If you carry more, fine, but they're just developmental guys and anything they contribute is gravy.
2.) You need a fairly small amount of turnover from year to year-ideally no more than one of the seven although somtimes it will have to be two.
3.) You need two-four of the seven to be 30 or younger because otherwise you're just going to have to turn over players too quickly once they get old.

Right now the Pats have at best four of seven pieces (two tackles, a center, and a halfway decent third interior linemen (Connolly). Even if you resign Mankins and Light, you're still short a starting guard and you're also older than you should be, with Vollmer and Mankins the only two players who are likely to be around for more than a year or three, so you probably want to upgrade Kaczur and/or Connolly as well as adding a quality guard.

 

[satz]

He made about 4.5 million this past season. He's on the wrong side of 30 and has had a lot of trouble with speed rushers, I'm not sure he'd get a huge deal elsewhere. I'm thinking that with enough incentives in his contract he might want to stay here.

Anyway, I was curious to hear your thoughts about how Light at Guard would work on the field.

Light cannot play gaurd .He is not build like mankins or neal .stout guys who are low ,powerfull enought to go against 3-4 DE or DT on single coverage.

Vollmer struggled alot post concussion last year with wake,williams and needed a bunch of help. THis year after his injury TE was on his side all the time. Can you explain how you are projecting him to be preconcussion player when he has struggled last 2 yrs. If you get a rookie RT he will be protected so will you pull all help from vollmer side like light this year?


I rather draft a 2 gaurds/center guys one high and one is 3-4th and call it a day resigning light. It also helps vollmer to develop and maybe be get a good year in before moving over.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

What happens to Light will most likely be shaped by what happens to Mankins.

If Mankins is resigned, Light can be franchised and maybe traded. There are way too many teams looking for Oline not to get something.

If Mankins is franchised, he should have good trade value and can be replaced. At that point, Light's experience helps and should suffice for 2-3 years.

I just hope we are not in a position where we have HAVE to draft a tackle.

 

[reflexblue]

I can't see see us passing on OT (or trade down a bit and then picking an OT) if Light is not re-signed.

If Light is re-signed, there is less need with both Light and Kaczur available in addition to Vollmer.

BB Will Not draft an OT at #17

 

[Shelterdog]

What happens to Light will most likely be shaped by what happens to Mankins.

If Mankins is resigned, Light can be franchised and maybe traded. There are way too many teams looking for Oline not to get something.

If Mankins is franchised, he should have good trade value and can be replaced. At that point, Light's experience helps and should suffice for 2-3 years.

I just hope we are not in a position where we have HAVE to draft a tackle.

Light's not good enough to franchise and you can't do a tag and trade-no one wants one year of Light at $11 million guaranteed. And it kills you with any free agent you ever deal with if you re-sign Light and then immediately trade him.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I'm not a fan of the OT's in this draft at all, and I don't see a single one that is worth a top 33 pick. But because of the position and need accross the NFL these guys will be way over valued. I'd much rather re sign Light for 2 years and look at a top OT next year when it looks like a much stronger draft. There seem to be a bunch of really interesting O-lineman next year that would be much better options that the guys this year.

Some of the guys who could be available next yeat are Matt Kalil form USC, Nate Potter from Boise State, Blake DeChristopher from V Tech, Matt Reynolds from BYU and Mike Adams and Michael Brewster from Ohio State. My two favorites however are Jonathan Martin from Stanford and Josh Oglesby from Wisconsin. Martin is a potential franchise LT who could see his way into the top 5 is he can live up to his potential. While Oglesby is a monster who would probably be better suited for RT with the Pats. But there are a lot of interesting guys in next years draft that I would definitely prefer over the guys this year.

My dream scenario would be:

2011
C- Rodney Hudson- Late 2nd/Early 3rd
OG- Clint Boling- 3rd/4th
OG- James Carpenter- 4th

2012
OT- J. Martin/ J. Oglesby- 1st/2nd

Which would leave an O-Line for the next decade of:
LT- J. Martin/ S. Vollmer
LG- J. Carpenter
C- R. Hudson
RG- C. Boling
RT- S. Vollmer/ J. Oglesby

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Light's not good enough to franchise and you can't do a tag and trade-no one wants one year of Light at $11 million guaranteed. And it kills you with any free agent you ever deal with if you re-sign Light and then immediately trade him.

You do know we franchised Cassel and traded him?

The reality if the team wants to move in the draft, Light can be part of the mix. Use Dallas as an example.

Would they consider #17 and Light for #9?

Obviously, some prior mechanism or understanding would be in place with Light having potential destinations already outlined. Besides, when did $11 million become outrageous for a starting LT?

They might also just let him walk. No doubt that's very plausible.

 

[SanAngeloState]

You do know we franchised Cassel and traded him?

The reality if the team wants to move in the draft, Light can be part of the mix. Use Dallas as an example.

Would they consider #17 and Light for #9?

Obviously, some prior mechanism or understanding would be in place with Light having potential destinations already outlined. Besides, when did $11 million become outrageous for a starting LT?

They might also just let him walk. No doubt that's very plausible.

The risk on a tag and trade with light is that you tag him, he signs it, and you are now obligated to pay him 11M or whatever. Then he has to agree to being traded basically and sign a new deal. Otherwise the team would be trading for a 1 year rental at a huge price for a mediocre tackle...why would they do that?

The new team would have to offer light a deal he would sign...the deal would have to be rich enough to move him off of his guaranteed 11M for one year. The new team may not be willing to pay that much...in which case light wouldn't sign it and they'd be paying 11M AND a draft pick for a mediocre tackle.

Worst case, the pats get stuck with light, unable to trade him and are obgliated to pay him his franchise tag price. Once he signs it, it's guaranteed, pats can't get out of it.

That's the risk.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

The risk on a tag and trade with light is that you tag him, he signs it, and you are now obligated to pay him 11M or whatever. Then he has to agree to being traded basically and sign a new deal. Otherwise the team would be trading for a 1 year rental at a huge price for a mediocre tackle...why would they do that?

The new team would have to offer light a deal he would sign...the deal would have to be rich enough to move him off of his guaranteed 11M for one year. The new team may not be willing to pay that much...in which case light wouldn't sign it and they'd be paying 11M AND a draft pick for a mediocre tackle.

Worst case, the pats get stuck with light, unable to trade him and are obgliated to pay him his franchise tag price. Once he signs it, it's guaranteed, pats can't get out of it.

That's the risk.

True

Yet we are talking left tackle. The franchise number is high because of what the NFL pays left tackles. If this was Koppen, yeah, because that is huge center money.

The reality is there are many, many teams looking for Oline help. Just look at the two playing Sunday. In fact, many competitive teams are looking for oline help. Chicago, Dallas, Philly come to mind.

Light has been here a long time. Based on the status on the 2011 NFL, it seems his value is underestimated in Patsdom.

 

[dryheat44]

True

Yet we are talking left tackle. The franchise number is high because of what the NFL pays left tackles. If this was Koppen, yeah, because that is huge center money.

The reality is there are many, many teams looking for Oline help. Just look at the two playing Sunday. In fact, many competitive teams are looking for oline help. Chicago, Dallas, Philly come to mind.

Light has been here a long time. Based on the status on the 2011 NFL, it seems his value is underestimated in Patsdom.

So the question is, as Patriots GM, would you pay Light 11 million in 2011? He has more value to the Patriots than to any other team, if you put stock in things like OL continuity and trust of the QB. If the answer is "no", than you probably shouldn't consider franchising him. Either offer him a 2-3 year deal, or let him go.

If the franchise tag somehow doesn't go to Mankins, it would make probably make more sense to give it to Meriweather rather than Light, although I wouldn't be in favor of doing that either.

 

[IllegalContact]

keep light, keep mankins......and focus the 3rd and 4th rounds on OL....I think the value is there as many of the guys taken in rounds 3 and 4 will be almost as good as the earlier picks....it would be good for the pats to come out of this draft with some of these guys: Jason Pinkston, Demarcus Love, Danny Watkins

 

[MaineMan]

keep light, keep mankins......and focus the 3rd and 4th rounds on OL....I think the value is there as many of the guys taken in rounds 3 and 4 will be almost as good as the earlier picks....it would be good for the pats to come out of this draft with some of these guys: Jason Pinkston, Demarcus Love, Danny Watkins

According to some post-Senior Bowl rankings, we may have to spend the #33 if we want Watkins.

 

[Sciz]

According to some post-Senior Bowl rankings, we may have to spend the #33 if we want Watkins.

No way. That's where he ranks as a player, but his age is going to drop him at least a round or so. I'd be shocked if he's taken in the top 50, surprised if he's not around at 60. That's nothing against him as a player, but 27-year-old rookies aren't worth as much as 22-year-old ones.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

So the question is, as Patriots GM, would you pay Light 11 million in 2011? He has more value to the Patriots than to any other team, if you put stock in things like OL continuity and trust of the QB. If the answer is "no", than you probably shouldn't consider franchising him. Either offer him a 2-3 year deal, or let him go.

If the franchise tag somehow doesn't go to Mankins, it would make probably make more sense to give it to Meriweather rather than Light, although I wouldn't be in favor of doing that either.

Why am I not shocked you think it makes sense to use the franchise tag on Meriweather? Outside of the fact that he's signed through 2012.

The question is what are the various scenarios.

If Mankins is resigned but the 2011 tackle position is not satisfactory; a franchise tag is viable if you don't want to committ to 2 or 3 years. $11 million is steep but left tackles are the high paid guys on the line.

If Mankins leaves, Light will be in a much better negotiating position. What if his demands are too high? Franchise should be considered.

Besides, It is my belief that Light is undervalued here. There is less risk franchising Light than there was Cassel based on Oline needs in the league. If Light was franchised in an unsettled situation, it should be easier to reach a settlement satisfactory to the Patriots, Light, and the other team.

How many teams are not looking for Oline help?

What is the tackle replacement plan?
What is Mankins plan?
What are Light's demands?

There is a difference between probability and possibility. Possible Light franchising:

Mankins stays, Light demands too high, 2011 draft and/or trade does not produce good replacement.

Mankins goes, Light demands too high, want year to acclimate new guard.

2012 has much better left tackle replacement.

 

[Patriot Missile]

No way. That's where he ranks as a player, but his age is going to drop him at least a round or so. I'd be shocked if he's taken in the top 50, surprised if he's not around at 60. That's nothing against him as a player, but 27-year-old rookies aren't worth as much as 22-year-old ones.

I'd be shocked to see him last until the 3rd round considering how weak this class is. Regardless of his age. I doubt 33 though. Not when you have more polished guards in the mix.

 

[SanAngeloState]

I think light could play guard...I think he realizes he's 33 and has at most a year or two left. Pats probably sign him to a 2 year deal for minimal money, maybe 7-8M total.

Or they let him go.