Risers and Fallers

[the wrothbroughterer]

So this time last year I remember thinking, "Hey, Brandon Spikes is ******* awesome. He should be a Patriot. But aww shucks, he'll totally be off the board when the Patriots pick at 27."

Aaaaaaaand then he ran a 4.8 at the combine and fell to the end of the 2nd round where we nabbed him.

The same can be said for Everson Griffen who was a surefire mid 1st round pick. Until draft day when nobody decided to draft him until Minnesota took him with the 2nd pick in the 4th round. Jonathan Dwyer was projected to be one of the top backs in the draft until he wasn't and finally found a home in the 6th round.

So my question is, with another deep draft like this, who do you think are the players that fall on draft day? We could do this around the combine but in my mind it's just way less fun.


Fallers:

Cameron Heyward- A less than stellar senior campaign and a nasty elbow injury that will limit him before the draft all add up to a slide out of the first round. Oh, and his position is just stacked.

Jake Locker- When your best season involves completing 58% of your passes, you suck. That's just a fact. I bet he falls to the 3rd.

Robert Quinn- 1 and a half years of football experience, kicked out of school, not a great program. I bet he falls past 15.

Risers:

Ras-I Dowling- He would have been a 1st rounder last year had he entered but that moron decided he wanted an education. With a good combine i bet he sneaks into the late 1st-early 2nd

Phil Taylor- Yes, he's a douchebag but he's got a unique blend of size and speed. Someone will make a play for him earlier than they should.

 

[Defsoul]

A few that come to my mind:

Fallers:
Ryan Williams, VT. Had a disappointing sophomore season after rushing for 1655 yards and 21 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. Was often hampered by injuries and lost a lot of carries to Darren Evans & David Wilson. Will probably live of his fantastic freshman season.

Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa. The Hawkeyes all-time leader in receptions and receving yards was once considered a late day two, early day three prospect. Then he got arrested for multiple drug charges and pleaded guilty to marijuana possession. Will he even get drafted now?

Risers:
Cam Jordan, Cal. Played another great season for the Golden Bears defense despite the loss of fellow defensiv end Tyson Alualu (who went #10 overall in 2010 NFL Draft). Some scouts said that he could get drafted as high as Alualu even prior to his outstanding week at the Senior Bowl.

Mikel LeShoure, Illinois. Put himself on the map as a sophomore than he averaged 6.8 yards per carry and finished sixth in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game. Had his breakout season as a junior in 2010 when he rushed for 1697 yards and 17 touchdowns. He draws comparison to former Illinois rusher Rashard Mendenhall, but I don't think that he can make people miss in the backfield like Mendenhall. LeShoure also doesn't have the sick spinning move that Mendenhall has. He looks more like the 2010 version of Darren McFadden.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Does anyone have a talent evaluator pecking order they follow?

For some reason, this year seems to have more players with varied evaluations. This is true for even the top prospects.

I have soured a little on Mayock with his Cutler love.

 

[MaineMan]

Does anyone have a talent evaluator pecking order they follow?

For some reason, this year seems to have more players with varied evaluations. This is true for even the top prospects.

I have soured a little on Mayock with his Cutler love.

I listen to as many as I can, including numerous "small-time" guys on individual team and general scouting sites. And I give all of them, big-time and small, equal weight by taking absolutely none of their perceptions/opinions at face value. I approach opinions about team needs pretty much the same way except that I give a bit more weight to the local pundits over the national guys.

I also don't put much stock in national pundit opinions about when a guy will be taken in the draft, especially this early in the evaluation process, though I do pay some heed to Gosselin's final Top 100 issued a day or two before the draft.

None of this makes me a better prognosticator than Kiper, Mayock, Schefter, et al. It just makes it easier to tell when such guys are way, way wrong about what team is going to take what guy and when.

 

[Lamanai]

Does anyone have a talent evaluator pecking order they follow?

For some reason, this year seems to have more players with varied evaluations. This is true for even the top prospects.

I have soured a little on Mayock with his Cutler love.

JMO, but I think it is just too early. Truth is, many of the pundits (and us fans) rely a great deal, maybe too much, on the results from the combine. After the prospects are poked, prodded, timed, weighed and have showed what they can do, I expect the projections will normalize a bit more. It doesn't make them more accurate, just compiled with more info in hand.

Also, a disproportionate number of the top prospects are Juniors, that have less of a history to track. (I don't have the stats to back this up, but I believe it is true)

 

[Ochmed Jones]

JMO, but I think it is just too early. Truth is, many of the pundits (and us fans) rely a great deal, maybe too much, on the results from the combine. After the prospects are poked, prodded, timed, weighed and have showed what they can do, I expect the projections will normalize a bit more. It doesn't make them more accurate, just compiled with more info in hand.

Also, a disproportionate number of the top prospects are Juniors, that have less of a history to track. (I don't have the stats to back this up, but I believe it is true)

A lot of things go into determining if a college player will make a good pro for your team. The scouting combine is clearly one of those elements.

And while I think GM's should use the combine to test measurables against what they see on tape, most GM's are looking at combine numbers and projecting guys based more on the combine numbers than the tape.

For example: If a WR caught two balls in 40 games in college, why do GM's think that because that said WR runs a 4.2 forty, he will catch 50 balls a season as a pro?

Yes I am continually frustrated by BB on draft day, but at least I know one thing to be true, draft picks (I am talking non third round picks that is) get on the field for TC, you wind up saying "yes" now I see why BB drafted that player, he can play for our team or he fits the system.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

A lot of things go into determining if a college player will make a good pro for your team. The scouting combine is clearly one of those elements.

And while I think GM's should use the combine to test measurables against what they see on tape, most GM's are looking at combine numbers and projecting guys based more on the combine numbers than the tape.

For example: If a WR caught two balls in 40 games in college, why do GM's think that because that said WR runs a 4.2 forty, he will catch 50 balls a season as a pro?

Yes I am continually frustrated by BB on draft day, but at least I know one thing to be true, draft picks (I am talking non third round picks that is) get on the field for TC, you wind up saying "yes" now I see why BB drafted that player, he can play for our team or he fits the system.

Where I think The Combine helps is in the 4-6 round range. Players have to have physical ability. If someone can show physical ability, but don't have the tape; you can go back and figure out if it's the player or college.

The Combine seems ideal to find specimens who you think can be coached up by your staff.

 

[Mark Morse]

Riser: Danny Watkins OG Baylor - Watkins will be 26 when he gets drafted but has only been playing football for 4 years (2 years at JC and 2 at Baylor). He is tough, nasty, and can pass block. Former OLT.

Faller: Mark Herzlich LB BC - Herzlich is a great inspirational story and I think he can play in this league, but his is not back to where he was as a Junior before his cancer. NFL GM's will pass on him because they are afraid of a reoccurance of the cancer (2% Chance). I would love to see the Pats take a chance on this kid in Day three. He had a really rough Senior Bowl that exposed some of his weaknesses. He stuggled in traffic.

 

[Metaphors]

Riser: Torrey Smith. Blazing speed is getting him noticed. He is going to make a lot of money at the Combine later this month. 3rd-round talent that will Heyward-Bey his way into the first round.

Faller: Deunta Williams. Amazingly productive first 3 years in college, but senior year featured a multi-game suspension, a huge drop in productivity (the team was a dumpster fire though) and a nasty broken leg in their bowl game. Assuming he gets back to 100% health, someone is going to get a stud in the 4th round.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Faller: Deunta Williams. Amazingly productive first 3 years in college, but senior year featured a multi-game suspension, a huge drop in productivity (the team was a dumpster fire though) and a nasty broken leg in their bowl game. Assuming he gets back to 100% health, someone is going to get a stud in the 4th round.

I would love to get Deunta Williams in the 3rd round. He has 1st round talent, but as you said the suspension and drop in productivity on a decimated UNC team dropped him to a 2nd rounder. Now with his injury I think he will definitely fall, but I still don't think he'll reach the 4th round. I think he will go in the top half of the 3rd, probably to a team like the Texans who are 1 spot ahead of the Pats.

I think the biggest faller will be Ryan Mallett. Apart from being completely overrated, Mallett has major character concerns and big substance abuse red flags which I think will definitely drop him out of the first, and possibly even into the 3rd round. When you add this to the poor mechanics, bad footwork and slow release I dont see any team thats stupid enough to take him in the first round (because the Raiders dont have a pick). This guy has bust written all over him.

 

[IllegalContact]

biggest riser right now is aldon smith. he's a top 10 in many mocks now.

 

[Sciz]

biggest riser right now is aldon smith. he's a top 10 in many mocks now.

I know. That needs to not happen!
In my current mock, I have the Pats trading with Detroit up to #13 to grab him, but he could easily be gone by then.

 

[IllegalContact]

I know. That needs to not happen!
In my current mock, I have the Pats trading with Detroit up to #13 to grab him, but he could easily be gone by then.

I don't think it matters. I'd rather have JJ Watt at 17 anyway and then get justin houston at 28 or jeremy beal at 56 or even KJ wright in round 3

 

[SanAngeloState]

I would love to get Deunta Williams in the 3rd round. He has 1st round talent, but as you said the suspension and drop in productivity on a decimated UNC team dropped him to a 2nd rounder. Now with his injury I think he will definitely fall, but I still don't think he'll reach the 4th round. I think he will go in the top half of the 3rd, probably to a team like the Texans who are 1 spot ahead of the Pats.

I think the biggest faller will be Ryan Mallett. Apart from being completely overrated, Mallett has major character concerns and big substance abuse red flags which I think will definitely drop him out of the first, and possibly even into the 3rd round. When you add this to the poor mechanics, bad footwork and slow release I dont see any team thats stupid enough to take him in the first round (because the Raiders dont have a pick). This guy has bust written all over him.

Deunta williams, if he were completely healthy and had a great senior season, would be a good pick in the 3rd round.

Given his condition, he should be bargain bin time, ie 6th round or later. As should Herzlich.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Riser: Danny Watkins OG Baylor - Watkins will be 26 when he gets drafted but has only been playing football for 4 years (2 years at JC and 2 at Baylor). He is tough, nasty, and can pass block. Former OLT.

Faller: Mark Herzlich LB BC - Herzlich is a great inspirational story and I think he can play in this league, but his is not back to where he was as a Junior before his cancer. NFL GM's will pass on him because they are afraid of a reoccurance of the cancer (2% Chance). I would love to see the Pats take a chance on this kid in Day three. He had a really rough Senior Bowl that exposed some of his weaknesses. He stuggled in traffic.

He is a medical mystery at this point. With those two rods in his leg, the doctors will have a lot to say about where he goes.

Right now he is looking like boom or bust. Teams will be gambling with "is he headed back" or "is this as good as he gets".

Should learn more when we see him run at the combine.

 

[MaineMan]

Brooks Reed is starting to see some elevation as post-Senior Bowl big boards are coming out. Went from #123 to #86 on CBS; from #135 > #49 on Drafttek.

 

[Metaphors]

I would love to get Deunta Williams in the 3rd round. He has 1st round talent, but as you said the suspension and drop in productivity on a decimated UNC team dropped him to a 2nd rounder. Now with his injury I think he will definitely fall, but I still don't think he'll reach the 4th round. I think he will go in the top half of the 3rd, probably to a team like the Texans who are 1 spot ahead of the Pats.

I would agree with you except that I'm not sure how much he will be able to do pre-draft. I would suspect the combine is out (he was on crutches as recently as last week). He may be able to make the UNC pro day (not sure when that is) but by then he will have been passed by lesser DBs that showed well at the combine. So while his current position may be in the 3rd, it has nowhere to go but down between now and April.

 

[D-Money]

I cant see Robert Quinn falling.I wish so the pats can take him at 17.

Risers-Leonard Hankerson.The senior bowl he was outstanding.The guy just makes plays.They can knock his speed but he doesnt look slow on this clip.
YouTube - (HD) Leonard Hankerson's 79 yrd TD vs. Georgia Tech (11.13.10)


Fallers-I am not a fan of Allen Bailey.He doesnt look physical.I was dissapointed with his performance.

 

[MaineMan]

I cant see Robert Quinn falling.I wish so the pats can take him at 17.

Risers-Leonard Hankerson.The senior bowl he was outstanding.The guy just makes plays.They can knock his speed but he doesnt look slow on this clip.
YouTube - (HD) Leonard Hankerson's 79 yrd TD vs. Georgia Tech (11.13.10)


Fallers-I am not a fan of Allen Bailey.He doesnt look physical.I was dissapointed with his performance.

At 6'2"/205 with 33" arms and 10.6" catcher's mitts for hands, Hankerson probably doesn't need to be blazing fast as long as he runs good routes and gets separation.

 

[D-Money]

He's gonna be a steal.He reminds me of Boldin.I would take him in the second round at 60.I dont know if he will be there though.