2011 Offseason Outlook - Offensive Line

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

You're skewing the numbers a little. There are a lot of Guards making 7, but only Jahri Evans is making 8. On the other hand, Willis is making 10 and a bunch of guys are making 8+. But after Lewis, Urlacher, Dansby, and Demeco Ryans, it begins to fall off. Which again brings up my point that you're choosing to ignore. Very good ILBs - of which Harris is one - don't come along that often.


Harris is not as good as Phifer in coverage, and neither is Mayo. But both are complete enough to play a lot and improve the defense overall. Spikes can play the occasional TJ role and give either of the 2 a break. Guyton is basically a jag. Fletcher is intriguing.

1.) I'm not skewing the numbers. Willis got an extension added on after the final two years of his rookie deal, not a new contract. He's not actually getting $10 million per year over the course of his deal.

2.) AGAIN, Mayo is a better player than Harris, including in pass coverage.

You want to pay significant money for an unnecessary upgrade at a position of relative strength, while refusing to pay for a man who shores up what would otherwise be a position of incredible weakness. That's L.A. Clippers/Oakland Raiders level foolishness.

 

[bucky]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

So is it your contention that inside linebacker is of greater priority than the offensive line?

The offensive line, particularly if Mankins leaves, is in dire straits. It's funny that you say Koppen has two good years left; that seems to assume that in the twilight of his career he'll manage a higher level of play than he did this season. I find that proposition unlikely, at best.

To answer your question - I believe the OL unit performed better in 2010 than the ILB unit. Obviously, the OL needs to be addressed with Mankins and Light as UFAs and Neal seemingly on his last leg. If we resign Light, we'll be fine at OT and we can fill in at Guard via either draft or mid-level FA. Or we can sign Mankins and we'll be in good shape for 2011.

As for ILB, I don't think we can improve it via the draft. But I do think we can improve it via FA And Harris is that guy, with possible Chad Greenway being another. That's why I think we're better off spending FA money on ILB and addressing Guard with draft or lower $$ FA.

To address your other email with regards to my logic, I think you are putting words in my mouth. I never said that "Connoly had 1 bad game" or "Guyton had 1 bad play". In fact, Connoly gave up 1 sack, but was quite adequate the rest of that game. Guyton, on the other hand, was completely useless throughout the entire game. He was replaced by Spikes in the 2nd half, who made some nice plays vs. the run, but then proceeded to blow the coverage on the 60 yard play and then get benched for the rest of the game.

As for the Jets/Steelers game, the Jets lost that game because they made the Patriots game their Superbowl and didn't show up in the 1st half. It also helps that the Steelers are much better at rushing the passer than the Pats. But that's something we all agree on. The bottom line is that the Steelers' win had nothing to do with the Jets' linebacker issues any more than the Pats loss had to do with Dan Connoly in particular.

 

[bucky]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

You want to pay significant money for an unnecessary upgrade at a position of relative strength, while refusing to pay for a man who shores up what would otherwise be a position of incredible weakness. That's L.A. Clippers/Oakland Raiders level foolishness.

Hey, I like Logan Mankins. But I think that he's pretty far from the John Hannah level of excellence. And I think it would be foolish to pay him top 2 Guard money when you can get 95% of the play from someone getting 50% of the money. I obviously disagree with your feeling that ILB is an "unnecessary upgrade" when an outstanding player is available who can make this team significantly better in an area of weakness - defense.

 

[JackBauer]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

To answer your question - I believe the OL unit performed better in 2010 than the ILB unit. Obviously, the OL needs to be addressed with Mankins and Light as UFAs and Neal seemingly on his last leg. If we resign Light, we'll be fine at OT and we can fill in at Guard via either draft or mid-level FA. Or we can sign Mankins and we'll be in good shape for 2011.

As for ILB, I don't think we can improve it via the draft. But I do think we can improve it via FA And Harris is that guy, with possible Chad Greenway being another. That's why I think we're better off spending FA money on ILB and addressing Guard with draft or lower $$ FA.

To address your other email with regards to my logic, I think you are putting words in my mouth. I never said that "Connoly had 1 bad game" or "Guyton had 1 bad play". In fact, Connoly gave up 1 sack, but was quite adequate the rest of that game. Guyton, on the other hand, was completely useless throughout the entire game. He was replaced by Spikes in the 2nd half, who made some nice plays vs. the run, but then proceeded to blow the coverage on the 60 yard play and then get benched for the rest of the game.

Well, you're certainly entitled to your opinion, but I doubt you'll find many people out there who would agree that ILB is weaker than OL. It's risible to me that you endorse spending 6-7 MM to marginally improve one spot on the defense at the expense of a guy you just drafted in the second round, but you know what they say about opinions.

If you go back to 2007, the common factor in playoff losses is opposing teams getting pressure up the middle; Connolly and Koppen both sucked against the Jets, Koppen was mediocre all season long, and the interior OL as currently constituted has a disturbing tendency of coming up small in the playoffs (that would include Mankins). Even if we do re-sign Mankins, we're not in "good" shape for 2011 because Koppen is marginal and Connolly shouldn't be a starting RG in the NFL.

At the end of the day, OG is a much, much higher priority than ILB and I don't think you could argue otherwise with a straight face.

The bottom line is that the Steelers' win had nothing to do with the Jets' linebacker issues any more than the Pats loss had to do with Dan Connoly in particular.

So what you're saying is that allowing Mendenhall to run for 121 at 4.5 YPC doesn't reveal anything at all about the Jets linebackers, but somehow Guytons' and Spikes' respective performances were entirely dispositive and thus they should be replaced.

That's a novel argument, I'll give you that.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Hey, I like Logan Mankins. But I think that he's pretty far from the John Hannah level of excellence. And I think it would be foolish to pay him top 2 Guard money when you can get 95% of the play from someone getting 50% of the money. I obviously disagree with your feeling that ILB is an "unnecessary upgrade" when an outstanding player is available who can make this team significantly better in an area of weakness - defense.

1.) The John Hannah line is meaningless.

2.) Your "95%" argument assumes there's someone out there that fits those parameters. Feel free to name those people, remembering that the team would need two guards if Mankins were to walk. Connolly is nowhere near "95%" of Mankins. Connolly is not a starting caliber guard in the NFL.

3.) Using your own percentages argument......

The Patriots can get 95%" of David Harris using Spikes as the run stopper and Guyton as the coverage LB, and they can do it at, possibly, less than 20% of the cost.



Your ILB argument fails on pretty much every level.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

And I think it would be foolish to pay him top 2 Guard money when you can get 95% of the play from someone getting 50% of the money.

The same can be said of Brandon Spikes next season at a fraction of the cost of David Harris. The biggest jump for a NFL player development is from his rookie season to his second season.

I obviously disagree with your feeling that ILB is an "unnecessary upgrade" when an outstanding player is available who can make this team significantly better in an area of weakness - defense.

The two biggest areas of the weakness on the New England Patriots defense is the 3-4 outside linebacker position and the 3-4 right defensive end position. The New England Patriots desperately need pass rushers from those two positions.

 

[bucky]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Dan Connolly was by far the worst offensive lineman for the New England Patriots in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. Sean Ellis owned the right side of the New England Patriots offensive line in the first half.

The New England Patriots offense gave up five sacks to the NY Jets in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. It's far more important to keep the New England Patriots franchise upright than marginally upgrade the inside linebacker position.

Go and watch the game again. Ellis wasn't lining up on Connolly all the time. Connolly gave up 1 sack, Koppen gave 1 up, 2 were on DB blitzes that were unaccounted for, and 1 was a coverage sack.

Saturday and Kreutz were former Pro-Bowlers while Dan Connolly is a stiff. Apples to oranges, there is no comparison between Kreutz, Saturday versus Connolly let alone Nick Kaczur.

I never compared them to Connolly. I compared them to Light and Koppen.

That's pure speculation on your part. Matt Light is an unrestricted free agent while Nick Kaczur is recovering from back surgery. Dan Koppen has been a lightening rod for criticism on the PatfsFans message board this season.

What? That Light and Koppen have 2 good years left? That's a pretty safe bet. Their performance has remained pretty steady, as as their health. And OL can easily go till their 33-34. Look at Woody - he was 33 this year and was pretty solid.

The New England Patriots are committed to rebuilding the defense via the NFL Draft. It's far more important to re-sign Logan Mankins and maintain some continuity on the offensive line while the New England Patriots seriously upgrade the right offensive guard position via the 2011 NFL Draft.

That bolded part is pure speculation on your part. You have no idea what the Pats intend to do in the draft. One thing we know for sure is there isn't an ILB in the draft that would be an upgrade. However, there certainly is at least on in free agency. And the Pats have money to spend if they want to.

 

[bucky]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

1.) The John Hannah line is meaningless.

What I'm saying here is that Mankins is not head and shoulders above the rest of the league, like Hannah was. He gets beat plenty of times.

2.) Your "95%" argument assumes there's someone out there that fits those parameters. Feel free to name those people, remembering that the team would need two guards if Mankins were to walk. Connolly is nowhere near "95%" of Mankins. Connolly is not a starting caliber guard in the NFL.

3.) Using your own percentages argument......

The Patriots can get 95%" of David Harris using Spikes as the run stopper and Guyton as the coverage LB, and they can do it at, possibly, less than 20% of the cost.

No. You cannot get 95% of Harris using Spikes and Guyton. You are refusing to listen to the central point of my argument although I've stated it many times. ILB position is a lot harder to fill than Guard. Especially for this scheme. And Harris has already proven that he can excel in it.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Go and watch the game again. Ellis wasn't lining up on Connolly all the time. Connolly gave up 1 sack, Koppen gave 1 up, 2 were on DB blitzes that were unaccounted for, and 1 was a coverage sack.

Dan Connolly was so bad in pass protection that Sebastian Vollmer had to help out Dan Connolly while Alge Crumpler tried to pass block Calvin Pace. Now what you have observed is not only Dan Connolly needs to be upgraded but Dan Koppen as well. Note that Matt Light and Logan Mankins are both unrestricted free agents, the only quality starter on the New England Patriots offensive line under the age of 30 is Sebastian Vollmer. Dan Connolly sucks does not deserve a roster spot on the New England Patriots.

I never compared them to Connolly. I compared them to Light and Koppen.

Kreutz was a six time Pro-Bowler, neither Light nor Koppen have been nominated to the Pro Bowl that many times. Koppen and Light are on the downslope of their careers since they are both past the age of thirty. Furthermore, the last two playoff games, the New England Patriots offensive line has been manhandled by the Ravens and Jets defense. It's time to start upgrading Neal, Koppen, and Light. Logan Mankins is by far the best offensive guard on the New England Patriots roster and one of the best in the NFL.

What? That Light and Koppen have 2 good years left? That's a pretty safe bet. Their performance has remained pretty steady, as as their health.

The New England Patriots offensive line allowed five sacks against the Jets defense in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. The lack of performance speaks for itself.

And OL can easily go till their 33-34. Look at Woody - he was 33 this year and was pretty solid.

The New York Jets are not a pass happy offense and Mark Sanchez is more mobile than Tom Brady. Not only the New England Patriots allowed five sacks against the New York Jets but Tom Brady took a physical beating, as well.

That bolded part is pure speculation on your part. You have no idea what the Pats intend to do in the draft.

The New England Patriots are more likely to draft an offensive lineman than another inside linebacker.

One thing we know for sure is there isn't an ILB in the draft that would be an upgrade. However, there certainly is at least on in free agency. And the Pats have money to spend if they want to.

The money is far more likely to be spent on Logan Mankins and possibly a 3-4 outside linebacker if a LaMarr Woodley is not franchised in the off-season.

Your rational behind a David Harris free agent acquisition has no merit whatsoever since he is no better than Gary Guyton is pass coverage and no better than Brandon Spikes in run defense.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

As for Mankins, I'm telling you right now BB and Kraft are not going to make him the highest paid Guard in the NFL. Not unless they plan to move him to OT.

So you are Bill Belichick and/or Robert Kraft? You have no idea whatsoever if contract negotiations have been ongoing between Mankins and the New England Patriots organization since the conclusion of the 2010 NFL Season. If the New England Patriots have money under an assumed salary cap value for the 2011 NFL Season, the New England Patriots can afford to sign Logan Mankins to a long term contract. In the meantime, Tully Banta-Cain and Gerard Warren are expendable and any salary cap savings can be applied to a Logan Mankins contract.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

ILB position is a lot harder to fill than Guard. Especially for this scheme. And Harris has already proven that he can excel in it.

Funny how the New England Patriots filled the inside linebacker position via the draft and undrafted free agents: Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, Fletcher whose collective salary cap charge will probably be less than what David Harris will command in 2011.

If offensive guard is so easy to replace than why do the New England Patriots have backup interior lineman stiffs like Connolly, Wendell, Ohrnberger, Ojinnaka?

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

DO you really think Connolly/Wendell/Ohrnberger are _that_ bad? We got Connolly for nothing and while he was the weak link he played almost the entire reason on a pretty good line.

It's called expectations. Do you just want to just qualify for the AFC Playoffs or win the Super Bowl? Dan Connolly is just adequate enough for the New England Patriots to qualify for the AFC Playoffs. Dan Connolly was severely exposed against the NY Jets in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. If Connolly is the top interior offensive lineman reserve, it reveals the lack of quality depth on the New England Patriots offensive line. In other words, Connolly is no Hochstein.

 

[JackBauer]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

It's called expectations. Do you just want to just qualify for the AFC Playoffs or win the Super Bowl? Dan Connolly is just adequate enough for the New England Patriots to qualify for the AFC Playoffs. Dan Connolly was severely exposed against the NY Jets in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. If Connolly is the top interior offensive lineman reserve, it reveals the lack of quality depth on the New England Patriots offensive line. In other words, Connolly is no Hochstein.

I disagree with this.

Connolly is fine as a backup, but is not an ideal starter. He played relatively well throughout the season, and that should be considered in addition to his lackluster performance against the Jets.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

I disagree with this.

Connolly is fine as a backup, but is not an ideal starter. He played relatively well throughout the season, and that should be considered in addition to his lackluster performance against the Jets.

Dan Connolloy played so relatively well that he was benched in the second half of the San Diego Chargers game. In addition, Sean Ellis eat Dan Connolly alive in the first half of the Jets game in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. The New England Patriots offense cannot effectively operate at maximum efficiency if Vollmer and/or Koppen have to babysit for Connolly. A major upgrade is needed at the right offensive guard position that must be addressed in the 2011 NFL Draft.

 

[JackBauer]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Dan Connolloy played so relatively well that he was benched in the second half of the San Diego Chargers game. In addition, Sean Ellis eat Dan Connolly alive in the first half of the Jets game in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. The New England Patriots offense cannot effectively operate at maximum efficiency if Vollmer and/or Koppen have to babysit for Connolly. A major upgrade is needed at the right offensive guard position that must be addressed in the 2011 NFL Draft.

None of this changes or refutes my contention that Connolly is an acceptable backup and a suboptimal starting player.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

DO you really think Connolly/Wendell/Ohrnberger are _that_ bad? We got Connolly for nothing and while he was the weak link he played almost the entire reason on a pretty good line.

Yes, they really are that bad.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

None of this changes or refutes my contention that Connolly is an acceptable backup and a suboptimal starting player.

If Connolly is one of the starting offensive guards for the New England Patriots next season, forget about the Super Bowl.

 

[JackBauer]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

If Connolly is one of the starting offensive guards for the New England Patriots next season, forget about the Super Bowl.

That's a silly thing to say. Look who's playing LT for the Super Bowl-bound Steelers.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

That's a silly thing to say. Look who's playing LT for the Super Bowl-bound Steelers.

Different QB, which makes a world of difference.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

That's a silly thing to say. Look who's playing LT for the Super Bowl-bound Steelers.

Yeah, Tom Brady can avoid the pass rush and scramble like Ben Roethlisberger.

Tom Brady took a beating against the New York Jets in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. The New England Patriots offense allowed five quarterback sacks against the New York Jets.