Playoff Bye Week thoughts aftr Denver loss

[JR4]

Since I can't search on words less than 6 characters I don't know if this
topic has been discussed recently.
so ..

This discussion assumes PATs win out
(it's is the only way I see PATs having a shot at #2 seed position )

Last night Denver's loss means PATs now pass them in the hunt if PATs win out.

The two major players are the Ravens and Chargers that could take that
2nd seed.

Chargers have beat Denver and PATs lost to them so it seems Chargers
have to lose two games in the final six if PATs are to beat them out.

KC is getting hot and may deliver a loss to each of these teams in the
final weeks.
That would make a three way tie for the #2 seed postion.

Any thoughts here.

 

[ironwasp]

The AFC is an increasingly complicated pciture and it's all getting pretty bunched up below Baltimore/San Diego, and KC's emergence as a contender has really heated things up.

The Western teams, in particular, now have the opportunity to beat each other up big time and it's not difficult to see how we could slide ahead of them. I'm beginning to think the real obstacle to the second seed is Baltimore, and if they are going to stagger we are going to need some help from Pittsburgh (who they play twice) and Cincinnati. They also play KC.

That said, I think if we lose again, we're not having a week off. Realistically we have three tough games left: Bears, Jags and Fins in Miami. I think we can win them all, but it ain't going to be easy.

 

[Fumblerooski]

The AFC is an increasingly complicated pciture and it's all getting pretty bunched up below Baltimore/San Diego, and KC's emergence as a contender has really heated things up.

The Western teams, in particular, now have the opportunity to beat each other up big time and it's not difficult to see how we could slide ahead of them. I'm beginning to think the real obstacle to the second seed is Baltimore, and if they are going to stagger we are going to need some help from Pittsburgh (who they play twice) and Cincinnati. They also play KC.

That said, I think if we lose again, we're not having a week off. Realistically we have three tough games left: Bears, Jags and Fins in Miami. I think we can win them all, but it ain't going to be easy.

Agreed, the last 6 games are going to be interesting. But, as you say, the Pats can not afford another loss. 12-4 may not get a bye this year.

Does anyone know the tie breaker between the Ravens and Pats if they both finish 13-3 which is a distinct possibility.

But, a more likely scenario will be the Chargers and Pats and Ravens all finish at 12-4. Who wins ties?

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

But, a more likely scenario will be the Chargers and Pats and Ravens all finish at 12-4. Who wins ties?

I didn't see anything at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers that tells specifically what happens when there are three teams tied from different divisions vying for playoff seeding. I assume since they didn't play each other it would likely be conference record followed by winning % vs common opponents.

 

[Fumblerooski]

I didn't see anything at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers that tells specifically what happens when there are three teams tied from different divisions vying for playoff seeding. I assume since they didn't play each other it would likely be conference record followed by winning % vs common opponents.

If the all tied scenario plays out, the Conference records could also be tied. Interesting season in the AFC to say the least. The Pats need to take care of business and win the AFC EAST first, then let the cards fall where they may. It is possible to win on the road as they have proven in the past. (Note AFC title game win over Pittsburgh)
And, the way they are playing this year, it might not be a bad thing to go on the road.

IMO, as long as they don't have to go to Denver, they will be fine and competitive against any of the other teams. SD may also be a problem if they have to go West.

The most likely scenario is the Pats play a wild card at home and then have to win two more games on the road to advance to the big dance. Playing road games at Indy and Baltimore are both winnable.

 

[JR4]

Agreed, the last 6 games are going to be interesting. But, as you say, the Pats can not afford another loss. 12-4 may not get a bye this year.

Does anyone know the tie breaker between the Ravens and Pats if they both finish 13-3 which is a distinct possibility.

But, a more likely scenario will be the Chargers and Pats and Ravens all finish at 12-4. Who wins ties?

Not sure about Ravens. But I believe Chargers win a tie with PATs because
they beat Denver and PATs loss to Denver.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Ravens are going to lose a couple. They were luck as hell to beat
Tennessee. Pitt will get them at least once. I wouldn't be shocked if
Cincy beat them in Cincy either. And, they're at KC. That said. I don't see us running the table either. 3 tough games left; Chicago,@Miami,@Jax. I'd take a 12-4. As Bill Walsh says in that beer commercial. 12-4 is pretty good you know. I don't see SD losing any more than one game at the most the rest of the year. They could go 14-2. Just don't see us getting a bye.

 

[Tunescribe]

That damn loss to the Jets is screwing things up.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

This is what CBS Sportsline offers:

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM OR AMONG DIVISION WINNERS
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss


When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing division and conference records or records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
4. To determine home-field priority for Wild-Card qualifiers, apply division tie breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild-Card tie breakers (if teams are from different divisions).

 

[Fanfrom1960]

This is what CBS Sportsline offers:

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM OR AMONG DIVISION WINNERS
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

I wonder what Strength of victory means.

 

[Jacky Roberts]

Denver is cooked. They won't win the division, so the head to head vs. the Pats is meaningless. Indy will get the first bye and we'll compete with Baltimore and SD for that last bye. I, for one, have no fear whatsoever of going to SD and playing Shottenheimer for a berth in the AFC title game at Indy.

 

[shakadave]

Our loss and SD's win vs. Denver won't matter. It almost never comes down to common opponents. It's likely to be decided on record in AFC, where Pats don't look so good.

Baltimore sucks but their easy schedule won't bring it out. They could be the worst 14-2 team of all time.

 

[JR4]

Our loss and SD's win vs. Denver won't matter. It almost never comes down to common opponents. It's likely to be decided on record in AFC, where Pats don't look so good.
........

well if PATs win out and SD lose to Seattle or Arizona then you are right
.... the Denver game won't matter ....SD would win the tie because they
have the better conference record.
But if SD loses 1 remaining game to KC or another AFC team then it becomes the common games to determine the tie breaker.
The common games tie breaker rule says there has to be a minium of 4
common games .... if I am reading the rule correct.
The common games
are tenn, cincy, denver and bills
if SD should split with Denver, 1 loss and 1 win ... I don't know which game
they use for the tie breaker rule.
Not so straight forward.

 

[Pats726]

well if PATs win out and SD lose to Seattle or Arizona then you are right
.... the Denver game won't matter ....SD would win the tie because they
have the better conference record.
But if SD loses 1 remaining game to KC or another AFC team then it becomes the common games to determine the tie breaker.
The common games tie breaker rule says there has to be a minium of 4
common games .... if I am reading the rule correct.
The common games
are tenn, cincy, denver and bills
if SD should split with Denver, 1 loss and 1 win ... I don't know which game
they use for the tie breaker rule.
Not so straight forward.

I would think they would use both...so it may depend on the AFC games of bith teams...

 

[Fumblerooski]

Denver is cooked. They won't win the division, so the head to head vs. the Pats is meaningless. Indy will get the first bye and we'll compete with Baltimore and SD for that last bye. I, for one, have no fear whatsoever of going to SD and playing Shottenheimer for a berth in the AFC title game at Indy.

Ditto going to play the Baltimorons and then on to San Diego.

But, the best scenario is to get the bye, have Balimore come here and then, have SD come here.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

SD worries me from a pure team talent standpoint, well rounded offense and talented D, but I have confidence that Schott will yet again burn out his team by playoff time. Marty is quite susceptable to being out coached in a playoff game.

 

[Isaac]

Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.

Full breakdown on common games tiebreaker with SD and Balt here:
http://208.109.107.176/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=45243