Thoughts on Andrew Luck?

[alphilip77]

I know he isn't declaring this year and Brady still has 4-5 yrs left of good football, but what does everyone here think about him? More importantly, should he declare next year, should we ATTEMPT to trade up and get him? He seems like an all around safe/solid pick. Good intangibles, played in a pro-style offense at Stanford, and knows how to win. I know BB has never drafted any QBs higher than the 3rd round (Kevin O' Connell), but in my mind, grabbing a quality QB like Luck would almost ensure that the Patriots remain SB contenders, or at the very least, playoff contenders, for many years to come. Plus, after this years draft/FA, we SHOULD have all of our needs addressed so we could afford to trade up using multiple picks next year.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I know he isn't declaring this year and Brady still has 4-5 yrs left of good football, but what does everyone here think about him? More importantly, should he declare next year, should we ATTEMPT to trade up and get him? He seems like an all around safe/solid pick. Good intangibles, played in a pro-style offense at Stanford, and knows how to win. I know BB has never drafted any QBs higher than the 3rd round (Kevin O' Connell), but in my mind, grabbing a quality QB like Luck would almost ensure that the Patriots remain SB contenders, or at the very least, playoff contenders, for many years to come. Plus, after this years draft/FA, we SHOULD have all of our needs addressed so we could afford to trade up using multiple picks next year.

Who knows where he'll be by the time next year comes around. I remember when Matt Leinhart and Jake Locker were sure-fire first overall picks and both stayed in college, only to have some major flaws exposed.

I don't think it's a bad idea to draft someone Aaron Rodgers style and groom them into the position, but that said, why would you draft someone like Luck whose biggest selling point is his immediate readiness to play in the NFL?

 

[Dufflebagz]

Who knows where he'll be by the time next year comes around. I remember when Matt Leinhart and Jake Locker were sure-fire first overall picks and both stayed in college, only to have some major flaws exposed.

I don't think it's a bad idea to draft someone Aaron Rodgers style and groom them into the position, but that said, why would you draft someone like Luck whose biggest selling point is his immediate readiness to play in the NFL?

I think he made a mistake by staying at Stanford, the only reason Locker is still in the top 5 is because of the weak QB class...he got lucky. Luck already seems NFL ready though.

 

[borg]

I know he isn't declaring this year and Brady still has 4-5 yrs left of good football, but what does everyone here think about him? More importantly, should he declare next year, should we ATTEMPT to trade up and get him? He seems like an all around safe/solid pick. Good intangibles, played in a pro-style offense at Stanford, and knows how to win. I know BB has never drafted any QBs higher than the 3rd round (Kevin O' Connell), but in my mind, grabbing a quality QB like Luck would almost ensure that the Patriots remain SB contenders, or at the very least, playoff contenders, for many years to come. Plus, after this years draft/FA, we SHOULD have all of our needs addressed so we could afford to trade up using multiple picks next year.

So to get Luck next year, the Patriots would have to trade out of the 2011 draft using two very high picks in order to have 3 #1s available to secure the #1 pick in the draft in 2012. Then the Patriots will redshirt him for a few years as the MVP finishes up on the contract extension he signed just months ago.
So to summarize: Two high draft picks will NOT make the 2011 team better...and 3 very high draft picks from 2012 draft condensed into one QB will not be a part of the starting lineup until 2015.
Seems I neglected the tens of millions of dollars that the bench warming QB will be paid waiting for Brady to get hurt.

 

[jmt57]

Personally I think that given the constraints of the salary cap - and you can be sure it will return - you just can't afford to allocate that high a percentage of your cap space for three or four years as a backup.

As for O'Connell I never understood the Pats using a 3rd round pick on a backup QB when it happened.

If Brady does indeed have four or five good years left in him as you suggest, by the time Luck gets to play he could decide to walk away as a free agent! And though he could improve with that much time learning the system, he could also get rusty from such a long time with little or no real playing time.

On top of that it's not as if the Pats will absolutely have all their needs filled this year. Performance of other players will decline due to age or injuries; others will walk away as free agents; and some just won't be as productive as we had hoped they would. I'm sure in 2011 the team will have one or two pressing needs that need to be addressed and upgraded next year too.

We'll have to wait and see what the team's situation is then, but as of right now I would think there will be better options.

 

[upstater1]

You'd have to give up the entire draft and then some to get him, and then he'd sit on the bench. No, you don't do it.

The kid goes to Stanford. There's something to be said about an education at one of the elite institutions in the entire world. You can't replicate that. Once you leave a place like that, you leave for good. There's no going back 10 years later. Nor are there any thing such as correspondence or summer classes in your major at a place like that.

 

[Triumph]

I wouldnt be surprised to see Luck and Harbaugh united in SF.

Luck could refuse to play for who ever drafted him like Eli Manning.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Luck seems like a very tough player. I like that aspect of his game. Is he worth the #1 overall pick? I don't know. His stock can only drop from here on out. Now if he drops into 2nd round territory and only has a ho hum season but still displays good intangibles would I be interested? Yes. As long as his flaws aren't too huge that he couldn't be coached. But I wouldn't draft a 1st round QB right now.

 

[ausbacker]

I'm more interested in seeing if the Pats can find someone of a Josh Freeman value. You wouldn't think Luck would slip past the first few picks.

 

[billdog3484]

IDIOT...in my opinion...especially with the CBA uncertainty and apparent willingness of the Union to seriously cut rookie cap

 

[MoLewisrocks]

IDIOT...in my opinion...especially with the CBA uncertainty and apparent willingness of the Union to seriously cut rookie cap

The rookie cap will be here this year, with or without a CBA...

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I think Luck made a mistake by going back to school. It's no guarantee it's better for him. Look at Leinhart. Locker's stock has dropped significantly as well. Maybe that'll be good for him if he gets lower expectations to begin with though. But I think as far as bad teams go, Carolina was probably a pretty good spot to land for a young QB.

I'd love to have Luck, but it would cost a LOT in picks to get him, and I can't justify it. I'm all for spending a 5th on Greg McElroy this year though to see if he can be the next Tom Brady.

 

[alphilip77]

I think Luck made a mistake by going back to school. It's no guarantee it's better for him. Look at Leinhart. Locker's stock has dropped significantly as well. Maybe that'll be good for him if he gets lower expectations to begin with though. But I think as far as bad teams go, Carolina was probably a pretty good spot to land for a young QB.

I'd love to have Luck, but it would cost a LOT in picks to get him, and I can't justify it. I'm all for spending a 5th on Greg McElroy this year though to see if he can be the next Tom Brady.

Ugh. Greg ***-Elroy. I hate that pompous ass. Nothing more than a glorified game manager.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Ugh. Greg ***-Elroy. I hate that pompous ass. Nothing more than a glorified game manager.

Okay.

So he's not worth a 5th or 6th?

 

[Deus Irae]

I think Luck made a mistake by going back to school. It's no guarantee it's better for him. Look at Leinhart. Locker's stock has dropped significantly as well. Maybe that'll be good for him if he gets lower expectations to begin with though. But I think as far as bad teams go, Carolina was probably a pretty good spot to land for a young QB.

I'd love to have Luck, but it would cost a LOT in picks to get him, and I can't justify it. I'm all for spending a 5th on Greg McElroy this year though to see if he can be the next Tom Brady.

Going back to school didn't hurt Sam Bradford. I don't see why people worry about these things anyway. It's the kids' decision. However, Carolina is in shambles right now. Dodging that bullet is a pretty good reason to stay in school.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Going back to school didn't hurt Sam Bradford. I don't see why people worry about these things anyway. It's the kids' decision. However, Carolina is in shambles right now. Dodging that bullet is a pretty good reason to stay in school.

Bradford was a bit fortunate considering he got injured in his first game back and missed a few weeks, only to come back and get injured again and miss the rest of the season. He very easily could have dropped considering he only played 2 games.

And while almost any team drafting first overall is going to be in poor shape, I think Carolina would have been a better situation than Bradford had going to the Rams or Stafford had going to the Lions. Carolina has capable tackles in Gross and Otah, solid running game with Stewart and Williams, a #1 WR in Steve Smith, and a middle-of-the-pack defense. Their most glaring hole was QB, which Luck would have filled.

I'm not saying he would have been going to the Super Bowl. But I like that scenario compared to what Bradford/Stafford had.

 

[JB1089]

Bradford was a bit fortunate considering he got injured in his first game back and missed a few weeks, only to come back and get injured again and miss the rest of the season. He very easily could have dropped considering he only played 2 games.

And while almost any team drafting first overall is going to be in poor shape, I think Carolina would have been a better situation than Bradford had going to the Rams or Stafford had going to the Lions. Carolina has capable tackles in Gross and Otah, solid running game with Stewart and Williams, a #1 WR in Steve Smith, and a middle-of-the-pack defense. Their most glaring hole was QB, which Luck would have filled.

I'm not saying he would have been going to the Super Bowl. But I like that scenario compared to what Bradford/Stafford had.

Really? Going to the same division as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman to play for an owner that doesn't want to spend any money is a good scenario?

Bradford and the Rams are in a great situation going forward. He doesn't have any receivers, but he gets to play in a dome and has Stephen Jackson in the backfield. Most importantly, look at that division, there's nothing there.

Andrew Luck could break his leg and still be the #1 pick next year. Teams would just look at it as getting a year to acclimate to life in the NFL. He's on the same level, as a prospect, that Elway and Peyton Manning were. He doesn't have any red flags. Locker and Leinart weren't anywhere near that level.

Son of an NFL QB, smart, mobile, strong, good (not Cutler type) arm strength, very accurate, puts the ball on the correct shoulder, will be a three year starter and a college graduate, consistently gets to 3rd and 4th reads in an NFL offense. Sometimes he doesn't set his feet, but that's about the only flaw I've seen when watching him, and it happened less and less as the year went on (he's been well coached his entire life, from his dad to Harbaugh).

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Really? Going to the same division as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman to play for an owner that doesn't want to spend any money is a good scenario?

Bradford and the Rams are in a great situation going forward. He doesn't have any receivers, but he gets to play in a dome and has Stephen Jackson in the backfield. Most importantly, look at that division, there's nothing there.

Andrew Luck could break his leg and still be the #1 pick next year. Teams would just look at it as getting a year to acclimate to life in the NFL. He's on the same level, as a prospect, that Elway and Peyton Manning were. He doesn't have any red flags. Locker and Leinart weren't anywhere near that level.

Son of an NFL QB, smart, mobile, strong, good (not Cutler type) arm strength, very accurate, puts the ball on the correct shoulder, will be a three year starter and a college graduate, consistently gets to 3rd and 4th reads in an NFL offense. Sometimes he doesn't set his feet, but that's about the only flaw I've seen when watching him, and it happened less and less as the year went on (he's been well coached his entire life, from his dad to Harbaugh).

The NFC South is a very tough division, no doubt. But you have to admit that, barring incredibly unusual circumstances, the #1 pick is going to a really bad team.

But as far as bad teams go, Carolina has all of the things you'd want to surround a young QB with: a solid OL especially at tackle, #1 WR, and strong running game.

Bradford's Rams look pretty good in hindsight, but that team was surrounded with question marks to start the season. High draft pick Jason Smith was swapped from left to right tackle, while Bradford's blind side would be protected by a rookie. Their best receiver got injured in the pre-season. And even Steven Jackson was coming back from back surgery. It all worked out in the end, but it wasn't really ideal.

Luck is a very strong prospect, you're right. But I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say he could break his leg and still be #1. And if his play slips, especially with Harbaugh gone now, the questions will rise.

He'll probably still be the #1 pick though. But will it be a better situation for him? What other bottom dweller would provide more than Carolina this year? Buffalo has a poor OL, Cincy is dysfunctional and has an even cheaper owner. Maybe if Arizona has an awful year, that could be a better scenario. But odds are it'll be somewhere worse.

 

[Fogbuster]

Good luck getting Andrew Luck. He un-declared because of the CBG uncertainty vs a sure thing at Stanford. I think he's going to be good in the NFL some day.

 

[andrewgarrr]

The only good reason to come out is money.

He comes from a pretty well-to-do family, he is majoring in some type of engineering, and is going to graduate from one of the best universities in the world. He will still be a first round pick. He will still be a millionaire. People have different values and different priorities. It may be a mistake in your eyes, but in his own mind, he made the correct decision and that is all that matters.