However, I see us being one injury away from being totally screwed at the position. We need someone better than Taylor and Morris.
Generally speaking, IMHO, in the NFL era of free agency and the salary cap, along with the use of metrics spurred by "Moneyball" theory ( work done by Billy Beane, Sandy Alderson, Tony LaRussa, Bill James, etc), the NFL RB position has been severely devalued.
What do stats/trends tell us about most RBs in the NFL?
1) At the age of 30, their production goes downhill on the average. Not just a slow decline but a sharp painful drop.
2) Given X number of snaps, the RB simply stops being as effective given the combination of age/wear and tear. Consider this is a position where the player has taken a pounding probably since he was 12 years old on the football field. You only have so many snaps in you as a running back
There are outliers like Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis, but those are not very common players. You could argue Thomas Jones might be one who also tends to buck the trend a bit.
3) Most players in the NFL, including the RB position, are not all purpose players with vast skill sets. Many do some things well and other things not so well. The advent of a QB driven league ( no longer in the massive QB talent drought of 20 years ago), the third down/COP back has become a quasi starter position.
4) Valuation of the salary cap broken down position makes the TE position one where a market inefficiency still exists. TEs don't get paid nearly as well as the elite WRs but offer the versatility of size, mismatches, blocking and pass catching ability, if you use a combo of TEs or find the right one. Along with the phasing out of the FB position ( partially due to fewer teams using the West Coast Offense than previously), the TE is simply more valuable on the field than the 2nd RB or the FB.
5) General trends show the strength of the running game is often determined by the play of your offensive line. A great line can make an average back productive. A great back, rare as they are, are requirements for your running game to succeed despite the O line if that O line is weak ( the early Tomlinson years in SD) The former situation is more easily achieved that the latter.
6) Elite and very productive backs have been found in the lower rounds of the NFL draft and sometimes even undrafted. This is not true for positions like QB, LT, CB and DL, where the elite players are often isolated in the first round of the draft and the only means to acquire them.
RBBC ( running back by committee) using cheaper players and multiple specialists ( goal line back, 3rd down COP back, two down grinder, etc) is a byproduct of multiple trends in the NFL in the last 20 years.
It's essentially, barring a few exceptions like Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, a disposable position. Law Firm and Woody were acquired, no offense to them as I like both players, from the scrap heap. And to replace them wouldn't be too difficult IMHO if push came to shove. Using RBBC allows you to pay the position less ( less stats to produce or split across multiple backs), not lock yourself into a long term contract situation, try to achieve max value from a player before his 2nd contract if you draft him, guard from injury, force defenses to game plan for multiple players, limit wear and injury risk, increase longevity by reducing total snaps taken, and allow you to focus your assets/draft choices elsewhere.
When the Colts had to give up something, they gave up Edge James, they'd rather pay their QB and WRs and their O line, which they did. And it was probably the right move.
Max value for a franchise is to draft a RB in the lower rounds, like the 4th, hope he breaks out, and ride him into the ground before his 2nd contract or before he clearly outplays his first contract by a large margin. ( Part of the sad reason Maroney was held onto so long, he was still cheap on his first contract. Only in this case it was mediocre production for mediocre cost) Then let some other team overpay him and take the brunt of the decline as all those snaps and the approaching age of 30 kicks in. This is how the Patriots and Steelers and Eagle survive. Targeting market inefficiencies before a player hits his 2nd contract.
IMHO, unless you are getting Terrell Davis 2.0, most backs aren't worth a first round pick ( risk of a bust/value structure against the salary cap) when you consider all your other needs and demand for other high value positions. IMHO, Belichick uses castoffs and retreads at the position because he can. With an elite O line, most average NFL talented backs can give you a solid performance.
Focus on your O line and make it strong and NFL RB simply becomes a low value position. Same reason kickers are so disposable in both the real NFL and Fantasy Football, most are interchangeable.
