AFC Championship Game: Jets at Steelers

[jmt57]

The weekend is almost here and last week's playoff game has been dissected to the point where I don't think there is anything left of that corpse. The real NFL news over the next 48 hours will now be the two upcoming games this weekend, so I'm going to go ahead and start threads on each of those games now.

#6 New York Jets (13-5) at #2 Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)
Sunday January 23 at 6:30 p.m. EST on CBS
Jim Nantz and Phil Simms will announce the game on TV
Dave Sims, James Lofton and Hub Arkush will do the radio broadcast

Pittsburgh opened as a 3½-point favorite; the line is now 3½ to 4 points
Over under began at 38½ points; it currently ranges from 38½ to 39
The Money Line has New York from +165 to +180; Pittsburgh from -185 to -220



Edit: final tally from poll on front page of this site:
74% believe the Steelers will win; 26% think the Jets will win
Final score: Steelers 24, Jets 19

 

[jmt57]

What to look for: Conference championship games - NFL - CBSSports.com | Charley Casserly

Pittsburgh offense vs. Jets defense

The first thing the Jets have to is to defend Mike Wallace. Will they do it by putting Darrelle Revis on him? Ben Roethlisberger likes to hold the ball. Pittsburgh's tackles are vulnerable. Can the Jets sack him like they did last week against Tom Brady? They were able to make Brady hold the ball by trying to confuse him with their ability to mix coverages. Can they do that to Roethlisberger? Can the Jets get to Roethlisberger without using the blitz? Can the Jets eliminate the big plays he makes outside the pocket? A key part of the Steelers passing game is play action. Will the Jets defensive backs have the discipline to keep their eyes focused on the Steelers' receivers?


Pittsburgh defense vs. Jets offense

The first thing you do against the Steelers defense is have a plan to block James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. What will the Jets' plan be and how well will they execute it? The weakness of the Steelers' defense is their cornerbacks, more so Bryant McFadden and William Gay. Can the Jets take advantage? Will the Jets be able to generate a running game to take the pressure off Mark Sanchez? Can the Steelers keep Sanchez contained in the pocket? Last week Sanchez made a big play out of the pocket to get the Jets' offense jumpstarted against the Patriots. That is why it is key for the Steelers to keep him in the pocket. Troy Polamalu has a great ability to read a quarterback's eyes. Sanchez has a tendency to stare down receivers, especially tight end Dustin Keller. Will he adjust his game to throw off Polamalu? The best way to offset Polamalu is to have a balanced offense. Most of his disguising and gambling comes on obvious passing situations.

 

[AJY the Jets troll]

Curious to see if Ryan will put Revis on Wallace the whole time. During their regular season matchup Cromartie was on him the whole game but that's when Revis was a little banged up.

Hines Ward is old but still comes up with some clutch catches. Eliminating Wallace really changes the dynamic of the Steelers offense.

 

[Kontradiction]

Curious to see if Ryan will put Revis on Wallace the whole time. During their regular season matchup Cromartie was on him the whole game but that's when Revis was a little banged up.

Hines Ward is old but still comes up with some clutch catches. Eliminating Wallace really changes the dynamic of the Steelers offense.

I have to think that Ryan isn't going to mess around with Wallace and will put Revis on him. That will be an interesting match-up to watch, though I have to think that Revis will just shut him down too. I think they put Cromartie on Emmanuel Sanders.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Cromartie is fast and tall. Revis is the more physical corner.

Wallace is very fast. Ward is very physical and a good route runner.

Match physical with physical and speed with speed.

 

[jmt57]

It Is What It Is - Adam Schefter on D&C: Packers are best team left in playoffs

Adam Schefter, ESPN | Dennis and Callahan Audio on Demand | WEEI

Schefter said he’s taking the Jets in another upset in the AFC. “I think that Pittsburgh is a little beat up after playing a physical game against Baltimore. I think they have some question marks at some key spots, at offensive tackle, at cornerback. I think the Jets are rolling, beating the Colts and Peyton [Manning] in Indy, Tom Brady and the Patriots in New England, and I think that they’re so confidently cokcy that they believe, they’re convinced, they’re going to Pittsburgh and going to beat the Steelers.”

He said he isn’t buying the theory that the Jets could have a letdown after all the emotion that went into their matchup with the Patriots. “I think at this stage of the season, that sort of thing builds on itself. When you’re 60 minutes from Dallas and Super Bowl XLV, I cannot even imagine a letdown. I just cannot imagine it.”

 

[jmt57]

NFL title game picks: Greener pastures for Jets, Packers - NFL - Sporting News

Mark Sanchez has developed a Ben Roethlisberger-like knack of taking his team deep into the playoffs despite the odds stacked against him. Both quarterbacks have similar challenges this week in tough pass-rushing defenses that can attack from everywhere.

Although each team had some success running the ball in the Dec. 19 meeting, neither Sanchez nor Roethlisberger can expect that kind of consistent support this time. They must bear down, use their mobility to sidestep the pass rush and convert big plays downfield, especially in difficult down-and-distance situations.

Sanchez has a much stronger, sturdier line, even after losing right tackle Damien Woody. The Steelers have struggled up front beyond ace rookie center Maurkice Pouncey and come in with banged up tackles. While Pittsburgh defensive coordinator **** LeBeau will send James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley flying from the outside at Sanchez, Roethlisberger will get a lot more unpredictable looks.

The Jets also have the best cornerbacks on the field. Darrelle Revis will play a big part in slowing Pittsburgh speed receiver Mike Wallace. In addition, safety Eric Smith and linebacker David Harris have made big plays in coverage during the playoffs. As for Sanchez, he might catch a big break if Troy Polamalu (leg) isn't near full speed after missing the December matchup. Polamalu played last week but struggled mightily vs. Baltimore.

Ryan has been saying the right things, and his team is doing the right things. In just his second year, it's time for Sanchez to take that next big step, as Roethlisberger once did. The pick: Jets 20, Steelers 17.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I think the gods have just let this be the Jets season..they were tested through scandals of coaches on the sidelines tripping players,arrested WRs with DUIs and Foot Fetish videos and are still in the AFC Championship game....There would not be too many teams who could handle all this and not only make the playoffs but beat Indy and NE on the road back to back which is unprecedented.

While the Jets did all this stupid circus stuff on their own behalf and it was dumb,you could say that only a VERY STRONG and willful team can get this far without caving into the storylines outside of football.

This is the strongest Jets team in both physical and mental that I have seen since the Sack Exchange days and I doubt that the Steelers are going to be good enough to derail the Jets unless turnovers are an issue.

The Jets are the better team and I expect them to win and then hopefully lose in the Super Bowl so that the Jets end up with the Super Bowl loser curse in 2011...if there is a season next year.

Jets 23 Steelers 14

 

[Kid~Brady]

I think the gods have just let this be the Jets season..they were tested through scandals of coaches on the sidelines tripping players,arrested WRs with DUIs and Foot Fetish videos and are still in the AFC Championship game....There would not be too many teams who could handle all this and not only make the playoffs but beat Indy and NE on the road back to back which is unprecedented.

While the Jets did all this stupid circus stuff on their own behalf and it was dumb,you could say that only a VERY STRONG and willful team can get this far without caving into the storylines outside of football.

This is the strongest Jets team in both physical and mental that I have seen since the Sack Exchange days and I doubt that the Steelers are going to be good enough to derail the Jets unless turnovers are an issue.

The Jets are the better team and I expect them to win and then hopefully lose in the Super Bowl so that the Jets end up with the Super Bowl loser curse in 2011...if there is a season next year.

Jets 23 Steelers 14

I have to disagree with the Jets being a better team that Steelers. Yes, they have a chance but better than the Steelers is a stretch. Remember, Polamalu is back this game. That makes a HUGE difference in that Steelers defense.

 

[Bruno]

I think the gods have just let this be the Jets season..they were tested through scandals of coaches on the sidelines tripping players,arrested WRs with DUIs and Foot Fetish videos and are still in the AFC Championship game....There would not be too many teams who could handle all this and not only make the playoffs but beat Indy and NE on the road back to back which is unprecedented.

While the Jets did all this stupid circus stuff on their own behalf and it was dumb,you could say that only a VERY STRONG and willful team can get this far without caving into the storylines outside of football.

This is the strongest Jets team in both physical and mental that I have seen since the Sack Exchange days and I doubt that the Steelers are going to be good enough to derail the Jets unless turnovers are an issue.

The Jets are the better team and I expect them to win and then hopefully lose in the Super Bowl so that the Jets end up with the Super Bowl loser curse in 2011...if there is a season next year.

Jets 23 Steelers 14

The same can be said about the Steelers that had to endure and off-season of Ben the Scumbag and four games of Charlie Batch.

This years Jets defense is not as good as last years. The offense is better...and that is the rub. If the Jets win Sunday it will be the O, not the D...Steelers Defense is better overall.

Homefield should be huge. Temperatues of 10-5 degrees. My pick: Steelers by 4. Shutting up all front-running Jets fans coming out of the woodwork: priceless.

 

[jmt57]

Jets have the flight plan to soar in playoffs - NFL - Sporting News - Vinnie Iyer

When examining the Jets' personnel, from the coaching staff to the talented mix of young and veteran players, there are few holes keeping them from the Super Bowl. Rex Ryan draws up a great defense. Offensively, the line and running game are strengths.

"Their two wide receivers are making big plays," said former Giants Super Bowl-winning quarterback Phil Simms, now CBS' lead game analyst. "They've got difference-makers on the defensive side of the ball. All their so-called stars came through against New England."

Like the team they just defeated, New England, the Jets have developed the knack to morph a unit to create favorable matchups vs. high-level opponents. They can pound the ball with Greene and Tomlinson, but they also are capable of burning defenses downfield with Edwards and Santonio Holmes.

As much as Ryan has been associated with being aggressive and bringing extra pressure, he also is smart enough to scale back the blitzing and instead use various coverages to confuse the quarterback when necessary.

"They've just refined what they are," Simms said. "The defense has learned they can do it without blitzing."

So much has been said about teams establishing an identity, but Ryan's Jets have the personality to do whatever it takes to win.

 

[jmt57]

NFL playoff team reports: Conference championships - NFL - Sporting News

Ryan talked about how much different it will be to prepare for Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger than it was to get ready for Manning and New England’s Tom Brady. Manning and Brady stay in the pocket, but the strong and mobile Roethlisberger is adept at avoiding pressure and/or breaking tackles and then making big passing plays on the run. In the Jets’ 22-17 victory in Pittsburgh on Dec. 19, Roethlisberger completed 23 of 44 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown but was sacked three times. Two of those were strip/sacks by DB Drew Coleman, a much better blitzer than pass defender.


S Troy Polamalu and TE Heath Miller did not play in the Dec. 19 loss to the Jets, so their presence in the AFC championship game will be a boost for the Steelers. Polamalu, though, did not play well Saturday vs. the Ravens, twice missing tackles on RB Ray Rice that resulted in touchdowns. Polamalu must do a better job of wrapping against Jets RB Shonn Green, a powerful runner who breaks tackles. Since he returned from a concussion, Miller has 14 catches for 167 yards and two touchdowns in three games. Miller will be a big factor Sunday night because the Jets are sure to deploy their cornerbacks to lock down WRs Hines ward and Mike Wallace.

 

[jmt57]

'Flight Boys' primed to soar vs. banged up Steelers secondary - NFL - Sporting News - Vinnie Iyer

Holmes, Edwards and Cotchery each have posted one 1,000-yard plus season in their careers and each is capable of making big plays against man-to-man coverage if a team blitzes or only commits to only a single deep safety.

That gives the Jets a big chance to have a big advantage over the Steelers if they can protect Mark Sanchez. Steelers superstar safety Troy Polamalu (Achilles'/ankle) is hurting, and starting cornerback Bryant McFadden (hip) is doubtful to play. That means a decent nickel back, William Gay, would be needed at cornerback while Anthony Madison would move into Gay's spot vs. slot receivers.

Madison did a good job of using his speed to overcome his 5-9 frame in helping to contain the Ravens' trio of Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Their average age is greater than 33; among Holmes, Edwards and Cotchery, no one is older than 28 -- making them both bigger and younger than Madison. Adding to Pittsburgh's potential problems is tight end Dustin Keller, especially if Polamalu is limited in coverage.

To the Steelers' credit, they shut down everyone except Edwards in the first meeting. You can bet Holmes, who has four big TDs in six career playoff games, will be determined to change that on Sunday.

Facing Polamalu a hair-raising experience for Sanchez - NFL - Sporting News - Clifton Brown

1. Run the football effectively

Running back Rashard Mendenhall ran for 99 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries against the Jets in December. The Jets ranked third in the league against the run in 2010, so it's a good sign for the Steelers that they had success in the earlier matchup.

If the Steelers can run effectively Sunday, it would lessen the need for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense.

"I have confidence in our guys, that they're going to make plays," Roethlisberger said. "It's not just me by any means."

However, the Steelers count heavily on Roethlisberger to make plays, particularly in late-game situations. Few quarterbacks are better at delivering. However, if Roethlisberger gets help from the running game, he might not need late-game heroics for the Steelers to win.

2. Get pressure on Mark Sanchez

The Steelers pride themselves on pressuring quarterbacks, but the defense registered only one sack in that December loss to the Jets.

It's not just the Steelers who have had trouble getting to Sanchez of late. He has been getting Secret Service-like protection from his line. He was not sacked by the Patriots on Sunday, and he has been sacked only twice since Dec. 12.

It will be interesting to see how Steelers defensive coordinator **** LeBeau mixes up blitz calls this time around. LeBeau is a shrewd in-game adjuster, as he displayed Saturday against the Ravens, when the Steelers turned up the pressure on Joe Flacco in the second half and harassed him into mistakes.

The Steelers should get a lift from having star safety Troy Polamalu in the lineup. Polamalu missed the December loss to the Jets, and few if any defensive players are more important to their team.

"He's the ultimate playmaker," Sanchez said. "He'll kind of freelance out there and read your eyes. Especially a young quarterback, he'll try to get after you early and rattle you. So I'm excited about the matchup against him, and he's going to bring his best. And we're going to need our best."

3. Avoid foolish penalties

The Steelers were fortunate to win Saturday, considering they were penalized nine times for 93 yards. There were times when the Steelers lost their composure, caught up in the emotion of the game and their rivalry against the Ravens.

The Steelers must avoid that trap against the Jets, a team loaded with trash-talkers who can get underneath an opponent's skin. Offensive penalties can be momentum breakers against the Jets, who thrive on putting opponents in third-and-long situations.

AFC championship game matchup: New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers - NFL - Sporting News - Gerry Dulac

Something has to give. Both the Jets and Steelers are good rushing teams that find ways to win in the fourth quarter, and both play aggressive defense — especially vs. the run. The Jets were the last team to beat the Steelers, thanks in part to the fact they rushed for 106 yards — the most the Steelers' No. 1 rush defense has given up all season.

QB Mark Sanchez. He had the lowest completion percentage of any AFC quarterback in the regular season (54.8), but he has stepped up in the postseason. Sanchez has completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 383 yards, three touchdowns and only one interception.

CB Antonio Cromartie. Cromartie was matched up against Steelers receiver Mike Wallace — who had 1,257 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns in the regular season and led the AFC with a 21.0 yards per catch average — in the teams' first meeting; Wallace was targeted 10 times and caught seven passes for 102 yards. The Steelers will likely try to attack deep with Wallace again, so Cromartie will have to step up.

OLB James Harrison. After registering just half a sack in his previous five games, Harrison had three sacks and two tackles for loss last week against the Ravens. The matchup of Harrison vs. Jets left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson will be one of the best in this game. The player who comes out on top could determine the outcome of the game.


The bottom line
The Jets are trying to do what the Steelers did in the 2005 season, when they became the first No. 6 seed to win all three playoff games on the road and win the Super Bowl. The Jets have already beaten the top three quarterbacks in the league — Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady — on the road and are trying to make it two in a row against Roethlisberger. But for the Jets to win, they'll have to disrupt Big Ben, who has been efficient and productive. That will prove too difficult, and the Steelers will prevail. Prediction: Steelers 27, Jets 13.

 

[stcjones]

The same can be said about the Steelers that had to endure and off-season of Ben the Scumbag and four games of Charlie Batch.

This years Jets defense is not as good as last years. The offense is better...and that is the rub. If the Jets win Sunday it will be the O, not the D...Steelers Defense is better overall.

Homefield should be huge. Temperatues of 10-5 degrees. My pick: Steelers by 4. Shutting up all front-running Jets fans coming out of the woodwork: priceless.

Good summation. I think it comes down to several things. First and most importantly, the steelers need to get alot of pressure on Sancheese.....not only pressure but a few PHYSICAL sacks.......Harrison needs to take another fine and pound sancheese into the frozen turf a few times. If they DO that.....and get some pressure on the guy....HE WILL MAKE MISTAKES. HE does not like playing in the cold.....and if you pressure him and bloody him up a bit....IT WILL make a difference. Conversely, the more teams seem to bloody and beat on Rottenburger....THE STRONGER he gets.

If somehow sancheese gets time.....he has the weapons to get it done....I DON'T see the Jests getting much on the ground unless steelers have more guys dinged up than I have heard about.......I think you pressure sanchez and make him beat you through air.

Now, the steelers are limited a bit with receivers.....yes wallace is awesome....but after that if falls off alot......Ward is a shadow of his former self and they have a bunch of ? other than that don't they? Mendenhall is great and should have a good game.

I think steelers win a close one by a TD........

 

[stcjones]

NFL playoff team reports: Conference championships - NFL - Sporting News

Is Heath Miller really all that much of an asset? Really? I had the guy on fantasy team this year and he was a bust!!!

 

[jmt57]

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Picks Foresee Jets-Packers Super Bowl - NFL - NESN.com - Michael Hurley

New York Jets (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH

• The reasoning: I was impressed (obviously) with the way the Jets played, but I was equally unimpressed with the Steelers' play against the Ravens. They drove down the field with ease to go up 7-0, but their next five drives ended fumble, punt, fumble, missed field goal, punt, with the Steelers gaining an average of 13.4 yards per drive. It was, really, one of the ugliest things you can see in a playoff football game, but from a Steelers-Ravens playoff game, we shouldn't have expected anything more.
  
  
• The concerns: Rex Ryan told his players last week that they'd be playing in the second-biggest game in franchise history. So what does he tell them this week? "This one's not as big as last week's game, because we don't have any personal vendettas against the Steelers, but it's even bigger than last week's game because it actually means more! This is the one-and-a-halfth-most important game in franchise history!!"
  
  
• With a team that was incredibly motivated to beat New England and had extra incentive after an emotional pep talk from Dennis Byrd, and with a team that isn't exactly devoid of distractions, I'm concerned that there may be a letdown. Football's about emotion as much as any scheming, and we all witnessed its power on Sunday night.
  
  
• The score: Jets 27, Steelers 20

Friday Out-Takes: Karma's Day Off

STEELERS exact revenge on BART SCOTT and the various mouthy baby-daddies who play in New Giants Stadium. But after seeing REX RYAN's "foot-soldiers" (© pint-size, pine-riding wideout WES WELKER) shut down the two Quarterbacks of this era, even Out-Takes can't give Big Ben that big a cushion.

Pittsburgh grounds the Jets and their rushing attack enough to put MARK "Body Language" SANCHEZ in the center of the storm. That eye of the Tiger fades and Pittsburgh punches its ticket to Valley Ranch. Steelers 24, Jets 20.

 

[jmt57]

Is Heath Miller really all that much of an asset? Really? I had the guy on fantasy team this year and he was a bust!!!

I think it's all about matchups and gameplan. As you saw his stats have been pretty good since he came back from that concussion. Jets knew the Pats had an advantage with their tight TE and slot receiver, so they game planned against that. Not so sure that the Jets will do the same thing against Pittsburgh.

I wouldn't base much of anything on a guy's fantasy numbers, as they tend to put far too much emphasis on touchdowns. Miller may not be an All-Pro but I can certainly see him possibly being a difference maker in this game.

 

[jmt57]

So much for the conventional wisdom that the Steelers would come into the game more banged up after playing the Ravens.

Jets-Steelers Injury Report - Jets Blog - ESPN New York

Friday's injury report:

NEW YORK JETS

QUESTIONABLE
DB Drew Coleman (knee; limited practice), DE Shaun Ellis (knee; did not practice), S James Ihedigbo (knee/ankle; limited practice), WR Brad Smith (groin; limited practice).

PROBABLE
LB Jason Taylor (concussion; full practice), CB Antonio Cromartie (groin, full practice), CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring; limited practice), DL Mike DeVito (neck, full practice), WR Santonio Holmes (quad, full practice), C Nick Mangold (shoulder, full practice), DL Sione Pouha (back, full practice), QB Mark Sanchez (right shoulder, full practice).


PITTSBURGH STEELERS

DOUBTFUL
DE Aaron Smith (triceps; limited practice).

QUESTIONABLE
S Will Allen (knee; limited practice), CB Bryant McFadden (abdomen; full practice).

PROBABLE
S Troy Polamalu (Achilles; full practice).

Troy Probable-malu against the Jets - AFC East Blog - ESPN

New York Jets fans shouldn't be concerned with all the names on the AFC Championship Game injury report. Jets head coach Rex Ryan announced Friday everybody will play Sunday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers list four names on their report. The two biggest are safety Troy Polamalu (probable, Achilles) and defensive end Aaron Smith (doubtful, triceps). Polamalu missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, but participated fully Friday.

Cornerback Bryant McFadden (abdomen) and safety Will Allen (knee) are questionable.

For the Jets, receiver Brad Smith (groin), defensive end Shaun Ellis (knee), cornerback Drew Coleman (knee) and safety James Ihedigbo (knee, ankle) are questionable.

"They're questionable. They're playing. OK," Ryan said after rattling off the injury report at the start of Friday's news conference. "That's pretty much it."

Listed as probable are quarterback Mark Sanchez (shoulder), receiver Santonio Holmes (quadriceps), center Nick Mangold (shoulder), defensive tackle Mike DeVito (neck), defensive tackle Sione Pouha (back), outside linebacker Jason Taylor (concussion), cornerback Darrelle Revis (hamstring) and cornerback Antonio Cromartie (groin).

 

[SmokeShowin]

I haven't listened to 1 minute of sports radio this week. I will admit I listened to Robin Meade on CNN Headline News talk about the game cuz she's hotter than hell.

I am praying with every ounce of anything that I have that the Squeelers crush the Jests. That is if my prayers that they have a horrific bus crash fall through.

 

[NJPatsGirl]

GO STEELERS!

I am still smarting from last week's loss to the Jests (I know, get over it already), but a win by the Steelers would make my f'n weekend