How much roster turnover?

[Sciz]

It seems that there are quite a few differing opinions on here about how many new pieces need to be added before next season. I think the Pats can still be an elite team as long as they don't lose Mankins, Light, or GWarren and draft some good young defenders. Others want a new WR, new OL, and an upgrade at every position on defense.

So, how many players will be on the 2011 week 1 roster that aren't on the team right now? "Team right now" includes everyone who ended the year on the 53 plus IR.

I'm saying 10, or right around 20% roster turnover. That includes at least 6 draft picks. Obviously, I'm not expecting the team to be overly active in free agency.
2 RBs
1 WR
1 OL
2 DL
2 OLB
1 CB
1 S

Also, if anyone wants to figure out the roster turnover for the Pats in previous years, please do.

 

[aurakilla]

impossible to guess but definitely not 2 rbs maybe 1 at most

 

[Sciz]

impossible to guess but definitely not 2 rbs maybe 1 at most

The Pats will have at least 4 backs. Who of Faulk, Morris, and Taylor do you expect back?

 

[ddanny1992]

We have already signed 7 players from the practice squad to return for next season.

Patriots re-sign 7 from practice squad - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[jmt57]

If I'm not mistaken it is typically about a 20% turnover each year. Of course the number and percentage change a bit when you add in the number of guys on IR, which I believe was much higher than usual this year. Ten new players sounds about right.

 

[aurakilla]

The Pats will have at least 4 backs. Who of Faulk, Morris, and Taylor do you expect back?

morris woodhead and green-ellis? so 1?

unless u guys think morris is done in which case maybe they keep clayton so still 1??

 

[Sciz]

morris woodhead and green-ellis? so 1?

unless u guys think morris is done in which case maybe they keep clayton so still 1??

Hmm, I completely forgot about Clayton. They did actually have 5 backs then, so they would still need to replace Taylor and Morris. If Morris AND Clayton stay, then one is enough.

 

[sieglo]

This is why I expect the Pats will trade a bunch of draft picks into 2012.

 

[aurakilla]

This is why I expect the Pats will trade a bunch of draft picks into 2012.

probably a 3rd and a 4th.

possibly trade down from 28 into the second round to in order to gain more picks next year but either way they should use a majority of their top 5 without trades

 

[ctpatsfan77]

probably a 3rd and a 4th.

possibly trade down from 28 into the second round to in order to gain more picks next year but either way they should use a majority of their top 5 without trades

If you can get the specific players you want AND pick up extra picks, there's no reason not to.

It's what the Pats did with McCourty. If they felt they could have gotten him even later, they would have traded down again.

 

[ATippett56]

It seems that there are quite a few differing opinions on here about how many new pieces need to be added before next season. I think the Pats can still be an elite team as long as they don't lose Mankins, Light, or GWarren and draft some good young defenders. Others want a new WR, new OL, and an upgrade at every position on defense.

Gerard Warren is expendable since he will turn 33 years old next year and the New England Patriots have plenty of young defensive lineman to develop next year.

Defensive Line (Choose 7)
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork
Mike Wright
Ron Brace
Myron Pryor
Brandon Deaderick
Kyle Love
Darryl Richard
Kade Weston

Unfortunately, none of the younger 5 technique defensive lineman (3-4 defensive ends) are above average in run support yet are able to consistently generate a pass rush.

The New England Patriots need to upgrade the right offensive guard position since Dan Connolly is not the long term solution and the injury prone Stephen Neal turns 35 years of age next season. The New England Patriots will need to upgrade the depth at the offensive tackle position since Nick Kaczur will be returning from back surgery and Matt Light will be an unrestricted free agent in 2011.

None of the 3-4 outside linebackers have shown this season to be able to set the edge in run support and consistently generate a pass rush. While Jermaine Cunningham may have potential, his pass rushing ability has yet to be realized on the field. Rob Ninkovich sets the edge in run support far better than Tully Banta-Cain however he is not a feared pass rusher. Tully Banta-Cain and Eric Moore are expendable and the youth movement at the 3-4 outside linebacker is further warranted.

The defensive draft priorities for the 2011 New England Patriots:

3-4 Outside Linebacker(s)
3-4 Defensive End(s)
Nickel Cornerback
Backup Free Safety

The offensive draft priorities for the 2011 New England Patriots:

Right Offensive Guard
Left Offensive Tackle
Running Back

Players I do not expect back on the 2011 New England Patriots 53 man roster:

Gerard Warren
Eric Moore
Tully Banta-Cain
Stephen Neal (retirement)
Fred Taylor (retirement)
Kevin Faulk (retirement)
Sammy Morris
Mark LeVoir (need to seriously upgrade)
Quinn Ojinnaka (need to seriously upgrade)
Shayne Graham
Landon Cohen

 

[THELAWFIRM226]

This is why I expect the Pats will trade a bunch of draft picks into 2012.

Not a bad observation, wouldn't surprise me at all if this happened. BB loves trading picks.

 

[THELAWFIRM226]

Gerard Warren is expendable since he will turn 33 years old next year and the New England Patriots have plenty of young defensive lineman to develop next year.

Defensive Line (Choose 7)
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork
Mike Wright
Ron Brace
Myron Pryor
Brandon Deaderick
Kyle Love
Darryl Richard
Kade Weston

Unfortunately, none of the younger 5 technique defensive lineman (3-4 defensive ends) are above average in run support yet are able to consistently generate a pass rush.

The New England Patriots need to upgrade the right offensive guard position since Dan Connolly is not the long term solution and the injury prone Stephen Neal turns 35 years of age next season. The New England Patriots will need to upgrade the depth at the offensive tackle position since Nick Kaczur will be returning from back surgery and Matt Light will be an unrestricted free agent in 2011.

None of the 3-4 outside linebackers have shown this season to be able to set the edge in run support and consistently generate a pass rush. While Jermaine Cunningham may have potential, his pass rushing ability has yet to be realized on the field. Rob Ninkovich sets the edge in run support far better than Tully Banta-Cain however he is not a feared pass rusher. Tully Banta-Cain and Eric Moore are expendable and the youth movement at the 3-4 outside linebacker is further warranted.

The defensive draft priorities for the 2011 New England Patriots:

3-4 Outside Linebacker(s)
3-4 Defensive End(s)
Nickel Cornerback
Backup Free Safety

The offensive draft priorities for the 2011 New England Patriots:

Right Offensive Guard
Left Offensive Tackle
Running Back

Players I do not expect back on the 2011 New England Patriots 53 man roster:

Gerard Warren
Eric Moore
Tully Banta-Cain
Stephen Neal (retirement)
Fred Taylor (retirement)
Kevin Faulk (retirement)
Sammy Morris
Mark LeVoir (need to seriously upgrade)
Quinn Ojinnaka (need to seriously upgrade)
Shayne Graham
Landon Cohen

Pretty good insight overall. Not sure if those needs are in order, but do you think an OLB is the most pressing need for the patriots? (not disagreeing, only wondering what you think.)

 

[ATippett56]

Pretty good insight overall. Not sure if those needs are in order, but do you think an OLB is the most pressing need for the patriots? (not disagreeing, only wondering what you think.)

3-4 Outside Linebacker (Willie McGinest type) and a dominant 3-4 Defensive End (Richard Seymour type) are two most pressing needs following by right offensive guard.

 

[aurakilla]

If you can get the specific players you want AND pick up extra picks, there's no reason not to.

It's what the Pats did with McCourty. If they felt they could have gotten him even later, they would have traded down again.

not what I meant, I completely agree with that strategy,I would prefer 5/6 of the top picks were used in this draft, by this I mean using them this year with trade downs and such and not trading them to next years draft.

 

[jmt57]

morris woodhead and green-ellis? so 1?

unless u guys think morris is done in which case maybe they keep clayton so still 1??

Hmm, I completely forgot about Clayton. They did actually have 5 backs then, so they would still need to replace Taylor and Morris. If Morris AND Clayton stay, then one is enough.

If I'm not mistaken the Pats have started each of the last two seasons with five running backs, not four. That's not to say that means that could change in 2011; just saying don't assume it will be a specific number at that position.

As for Clayton, he was not part of the 53-man roster at the start of the season. The five backs they started with were Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris and BJGE.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Banta-Cain is signed through 2012. Anyone know how much we would have to pay him if we release him?

I don't know if we should cut him just yet. Cunningham, Ninkovich, Murrell would be our only remaining OLB. I don't even know if Murrell is signed for next year.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

3-4 Outside Linebacker (Willie McGinest type) and a dominant 3-4 Defensive End (Richard Seymour type) are two most pressing needs following by right offensive guard.

Agreed. I think Cunningham has alot of potential, but thats about it. They definately need to upgrade the big uglys on both sides of the ball.

 

[jmt57]

Banta-Cain is signed through 2012. Anyone know how much we would have to pay him if we release him?

I don't know if we should cut him just yet. Cunningham, Ninkovich, Murrell would be our only remaining OLB. I don't even know if Murrell is signed for next year.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2010 Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page

Pats don't have to pay him anything more.

But if a cap is reinstated under the old cap rules and it includes prior transactions for future caps - a very big if - then the Pats would be on the hook for $4 mil against the cap. TBC had a $6 mil signing bonus in 2010 spread across a three year contract.

 

[Fencer]

Players I do not expect back on the 2011 New England Patriots 53 man roster:

Gerard Warren
Eric Moore Dumping both Moore and TBC is harsh in terms of vet experience, even though Moore hasn't been here long.
Tully Banta-Cain
Stephen Neal (retirement) Not unlikely.
Fred Taylor (retirement) Agreed.
Kevin Faulk (retirement) He didn't end the season on it. Anyhow, I actually think he'll be back.
Sammy Morris Tough to keep both him and Faulk.
Mark LeVoir (need to seriously upgrade) Nick Kaczur says Hello.
Quinn Ojinnaka (need to seriously upgrade) Or Ohrenberger -- but yes, generally agreed.
Shayne Graham Quite so.
Landon Cohen Indeed.

I'd add Wilhite. And Sergio Brown is a luxury, at risk of a numbers crunch.

As for DL: Ty Warren is coming back. Call that the Cohen slot. Mike Wright is coming back or, if his health is that bad, perhaps getting replaced. Pryor is at risk of providing the slot, especially given his durability issues this year.

In addition, one or more of G. Warren, Brace, Deaderick, Love will likely be replaced by a high-pick rookie, but it's not obvious which. Probably not Brace.