AFC divisional finals, Jets vs Pats breakdown/analysis

[Patspsycho]

Going to look at the game closely then step back and look at the big picture here.

There are quite a few myths to dispel here.

Brady's INT had no effect on the game (Jets did not score)

Welker's benching had no effect on the game (that first drive was pretty efficient right up to the bad screen pass by Brady.

Crumpler's drop had no effect on the game.

However:

Lousy G/RG play had an effect on the game. Example: 1st sack, 1q 5:40 1 and 10, Connolly loses BOB battle with Ellis.

Lousy playcalling had an effect on the game.

The botched fake punt was a huge momentum shift.

There was not any one point in the game where the Jets suddenly won the momentum. It was built up slowly over each possession when it dawned on them that it was going to be a low scoring game and that their grandiose defense schemes was really going to work. It was going to be a lowdown drag out maul, and that energized them, and did the opposite to the Patriots who just were in completely unfamiliar territory, not scoring a single TD in the entire 1st half.

Crumpler drops the ball.. fine, **** happens, but then on the next snap, the choice is to go empty. Why? Pretty stupid to go empty on a short field because there's so little field to cover and defense doesn't have to play honest, and they didn't. They sold man to man at the line and then went massive zone. I counted no less than 7 men in zone (Revis is in man coverage on Tate who he mauls and chops and holds). You can see some of the players fake man to man, such as Kyle Wilson who sells that he's in press coverage on Branch but in fact allows Branch to blow by him because he knows the back end is flooded. Branch shows that he is fooled because he turns for the comeback which is not what you do in zone (Wilson is just a step away).

2nd sack 1q 1:38 3rd and 5, Koppen becomes lazy and loses track of Ellis because he has help from Connolly and it looks like he's thinking "Brady must have thrown by now" because he inexplicably just stops jamming Ellis after Connolly releases to... nothing.. (this must have been his cue to start thinking Brady had thrown) and starts to stand there.

And again, empty on 3rd and 5 (2nd 13:07) bonehead call here. Jets know exactly what is coming and it looks like they have an either/or option scheme set because even though Woodhead motion strongside and stays there, Smith (shading woodhead) continues motioning to weakside 6 tech where he stays in the slot, and Coleman motions as if to drop in zone, but moves back into the slot, so my guess is that whichever side Woodhead motions to, it is the responsibility of the opposite to blitz because once Woodhead motions weakside, you can see Coleman crouch so you know that was his identification to blitz. Again the defense isn't being kept honest. They don't have to because there is no ******* run threat. Ryan might be a slobbering loudmouth tub of obscene goo but he outschemed BB/BOB here.

That is two ******* straight 3rd and five where an empty formation is called. Credit the Jets. They ignored the formation and came with their adjustments. BJGE is on the side of a milk carton at this point even though he's averaging 6 or 7 YPC (he has one no gain and one tackle for loss IIRC that drops his average to 4.7 YPC).

Even then, the Jets continued to sputter and struggle, then their turn to have a 3rd and 6- Sanchez experiences zero pressure (our inside rushing is nonexistent, see Brace, Wright, et al). Then you see the infamous helmet pin/catch by Edwards that brings them all the way down to inside the 10, and you know the rest.

Unlike us, the Jets had a backfield threat (LT) that kept the defense honest. Just a great play there. A nice double pick to clean LT and give him a free release to the TD.

What do we do after this? Do we adapt? Do we recognize that the Jets are daring us to run on them? They are essentially conceding the run game to us in favor of going MOFC on Brady. No. Empty, woodhead, empty, woodhead, empty, empty, and ******* empty. I'm reminded of a ******* first grader trying to force a ball through a square. You may raise the point that Woodhead is after all, a running back, and I will point out that he is NOT a POWER back. Jets will not adjust for him in the same way they adjust for BJGE who you must cluster on or he will just power through.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Thanks for the good read as usual, Patspsycho. I enjoy reading your breakdowns, and I appreciate you explaining the finer points.

I have very little knowledge of the Xs and Os, but one thing I saw that made know were going to lose this game: this was last year's offense. A shotgun spread with an empty backfield. This has not worked since 2007. Some of us were talking about this a couple of games ago (as usual, it was ignored due to the win). When you see the team going out of shotgun with an empty backfield on third and short or third and medium, it seems like they are panicking and believing that Brady will do more than he will actually do.

I was very disappointed because I felt they were predictable this game, and this is despite having a bunch of valuable chess pieces like Woodhead and Gronkowski. I watch the games with my wife, and I usually am right about 50% of the time in figuring out where the ball is going. This game, I was right about 90% of the time. That's not good. It seems to me that the Jets DID NOT BITE on any playaction attempts? Were my eyes fooling me?

Also, this is a footnote, but did the Jets REALLY not see the direct snap to BJGE on the two-point conversion? I walked up to the television and put my finger on him to tell my wife to watch this guy, because he's receiving the direct snap. I think they've run that same play on every 2 pt attempt since 2001. Glad they made it, but another example, to me, of their predictability.

If you wouldn't mind, psycho, could you give a brief run down of Aaron Hernandez? It seemed like the Patriots just did not use him enough. Did they try to get him involved, or did they just leave him out of the gameplan? Not sure how bad that injury was, but he seemed to be the perfect Jets killer with his size and speed.

 

[pherein]

Patspsycho what was the starting field position of the Jets offense threwout the game? If I remember correctly they stated 3x on the 30,30 and 10 YL of N.E., could you clear that up for me?

 

[Leave No Doubt]

If you wouldn't mind, psycho, could you give a brief run down of Aaron Hernandez? It seemed like the Patriots just did not use him enough. Did they try to get him involved, or did they just leave him out of the gameplan? Not sure how bad that injury was, but he seemed to be the perfect Jets killer with his size and speed.

Good question

I'd also love for someone to analyze (not coach-bash) why we ran that 4th quarter drive like we did. I heard the crowd was yelling "GO GO GO" and that drive just crawled, Donovan McNabb style.
What was the logic behind playing it that way, was it a read-react thing or what I can see wanting to eat some of the clock, give your D a break, etcetc but there came a point when I really didn't understand what was going on. Were the Jets doing something to cause us to play it that way? So much of this game I don't understand, I hope we get lots of analysis, thanks Psycho!

 

[ausbacker]

Good question

I'd also love for someone to analyze (not coach-bash) why we ran that 4th quarter drive like we did. I heard the crowd was yelling "GO GO GO" and that drive just crawled, Donovan McNabb style.
What was the logic behind playing it that way, was it a read-react thing or what I can see wanting to eat some of the clock, give your D a break, etcetc but there came a point when I really didn't understand what was going on. Were the Jets doing something to cause us to play it that way? So much of this game I don't understand, I hope we get lots of analysis, thanks Psycho!

It seemed ridiculous that we had 3 major weapons on offense in Gronkowski, Hernandez and Gree-Ellis and they were used sparingly when all three have performed and coule create mismatches against the Jets D.

It's unforgivable really.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Good question

I'd also love for someone to analyze (not coach-bash) why we ran that 4th quarter drive like we did. I heard the crowd was yelling "GO GO GO" and that drive just crawled, Donovan McNabb style.
What was the logic behind playing it that way, was it a read-react thing or what I can see wanting to eat some of the clock, give your D a break, etcetc but there came a point when I really didn't understand what was going on. Were the Jets doing something to cause us to play it that way? So much of this game I don't understand, I hope we get lots of analysis, thanks Psycho!

I'm not sure anyone without inside information would know. So if you want my speculation: it wasn't planned. There was panic, and once again there was confusion. Brady/O'Brien likely figured they CANNOT afford to come out of the drive without points, so they conceded the extra time to make sure it was the right call. Good tactic? No. Bad preparation. But when you are in that position, just throw out the reason you got there and play the odds. Obviously they were very confused, disorganized and hesitant.

Meanwhile, whether they scored in seven minutes or four and half, which was probably the fastest they would have scored with a no huddle, they would need two scores and would have needed to stop the Jets three-and-out either way.

But that's just my take. I would also like to here psycho's thoughts on it.

 

[Marqui]

The Pats need to go back to being a power running first team. Putting all the pressure on a passing game to carry a team through the playoffs just doesn't work, no matter how good your QB is.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

It seemed ridiculous that we had 3 major weapons on offense in Gronkowski, Hernandez and Gree-Ellis and they were used sparingly when all three have performed and coule create mismatches against the Jets D.

It's unforgivable really.

like i said 1000 times before in other threads - this game was a coaching issue. i can't blame any of the players really except brady, but the offensive playcalling again in a playoff game was abysmal. at the end of the day you have to blame belichick for not getting a more competent OC.

 

[pherein]

like i said 1000 times before in other threads - this game was a coaching issue. i can't blame any of the players really except brady, but the offensive playcalling again in a playoff game was abysmal. at the end of the day you have to blame belichick for not getting a more competent OC.

I refuse to believe that. BB is a pretty smarty guy and compared to you or me he's a genius in football. So, your point is he just forgot he was playing the Jets and he laughed off all the put downs from Rex and went fishing? why doesn't that make sense to me?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It sounds like this team, like many, many quarterback-driven teams, succumbed to human nature and panicked. They won all season, in a dominant fashion, by taking what defenses gave them, being blessed with the perfect blend of players to do this. In the playoffs, the pressure is on, and there is too much reliance on Tom Brady, since he's the guy that wins the game and makes the right decisions. As the game progressed, they "needed" to score more and more, so they sold out the reliable five-yard gains and just had no faith in the stellar running backs they have. A real shame.

I remember Corey Dillon being furious after the 2006 AFCCG against the Colts. They ran over all the Colts in the first half and then abandoned the run game as soon as they felt some pressure to score points. Last year was an abysmal display of pass-pass-pass whenever the game got tight.

This reminds me of a Dan Marino offense in the postseason...

Blame to go around, but this was a team that averaged 32 ppg and scored (really )14 against a team they'd seen twice. Not sure if it was Brady failing to audible or BOB, but clearly there is a problem with these guys believing in their running game.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

Meanwhile, whether they scored in seven minutes or four and half, which was probably the fastest they would have scored with a no huddle, they would need two scores and would have needed to stop the Jets three-and-out either way.

But that's just my take. I would also like to here psycho's thoughts on it.

Good point.

 

[Ring 6]

Good question

I'd also love for someone to analyze (not coach-bash) why we ran that 4th quarter drive like we did. I heard the crowd was yelling "GO GO GO" and that drive just crawled, Donovan McNabb style.
What was the logic behind playing it that way, was it a read-react thing or what I can see wanting to eat some of the clock, give your D a break, etcetc but there came a point when I really didn't understand what was going on. Were the Jets doing something to cause us to play it that way? So much of this game I don't understand, I hope we get lots of analysis, thanks Psycho!

I felt like when the drive started, there wasnt urgency in a quick drive, and didnt really need to be because there was 12 minutes left. 2 drives, one stop, score with no time left to win.
But as the drive wore on, it became an issue. A 5-6 minute drive would have been fine. 8 with no points was not.
I think they were correct in recognizing that scoring was more important than how quickly they did it, but they need to change that after the drive was 4 minutes old and they were only at midfield

 

[andrewgarrr]

I don't see how NOT scoring 14 points does not change the game.

Like you said, the offense was working splendidly on the first draft and the INT killed the draft and most likely took 7 points away from our team. The dropped Crumpler pass took away 4 points from the team.

Going up 14-0 as opposed to 3-0 at then end of the first quarter certainly changes the mindset and game-plan of the Jets. Sure, there are three quarters left and they can still run the ball as much as they like, but they are certainly under more pressure to score TDs. Psychologically, after losing 45-3 not too long ago and then going down 14-0 again, there has to be some strain on them.

There are many other things the Patriots could've done better after the dropped pass and the interception, but to completely rule these out as non-factors to the result of the game is foolish. This year, the Patriots are a team that thrived on turnovers, ball security, and getting ahead.

 

[Marqui]

It sounds like this team, like many, many quarterback-driven teams, succumbed to human nature and panicked. They won all season, in a dominant fashion, by taking what defenses gave them, being blessed with the perfect blend of players to do this. In the playoffs, the pressure is on, and there is too much reliance on Tom Brady, since he's the guy that wins the game and makes the right decisions. As the game progressed, they "needed" to score more and more, so they sold out the reliable five-yard gains and just had no faith in the stellar running backs they have. A real shame.

I remember Corey Dillon being furious after the 2006 AFCCG against the Colts. They ran over all the Colts in the first half and then abandoned the run game as soon as they felt some pressure to score points. Last year was an abysmal display of pass-pass-pass whenever the game got tight.

This reminds me of a Dan Marino offense in the postseason...

Absolutely, a Marino offense in the postseason, a Rivers offense, a Brees offense, a Brady offense, the list goes on and on.

IMO the key to being a champion is spreading out the pressure on every aspect of your football team, not just the passing game or just the running game or just the defense. I like the model of the 01-04 Patriots and 90s Cowboys. Instead of putting everything your passing game, make things easier on your elite QB buy building a great defense that can win games on its own and be a power running first offense. I know it sounds weird to have your elite QB be a "game manger" but its what's been proven to work.

 

[andrewgarrr]

When the Patriots were stopped on a 2nd and 2 and then a 3rd and 1 during the drive coming out of the first half was a huge opportunity to gain some momentum, but it ended up giving the Jets defense a lot more confidence and their team more momentum. Coming out of a disappointing half, a successful drive here could've really helped boost morale.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

I felt like when the drive started, there wasnt urgency in a quick drive, and didnt really need to be because there was 12 minutes left. 2 drives, one stop, score with no time left to win.
But as the drive wore on, it became an issue. A 5-6 minute drive would have been fine. 8 with no points was not.
I think they were correct in recognizing that scoring was more important than how quickly they did it, but they need to change that after the drive was 4 minutes old and they were only at midfield

Exactly. What was our purpose in continuing on, there HAD to be some kind of logic behind it Had we only needed one score then voila...

 

[slash83]

Has JMcD been hired by anyone? I would love to have him back, I am pretty sure Brady would too...

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

One more question for you, Patpsycho.

How did this compare with the SB42 gameplan?

While I've never been able to re-watch that game, it seemed pretty similar. Although Brady took five sacks, even on plays where he had the protection, I remember him constantly looking down the field with no answers. Was that another case of the Pats failing to run the ball in run situations? Or were the NYG d-linemen just do dominant up front that it had little to do with the scheme?

 

[pherein]

Exactly. What was our purpose in continuing on, there HAD to be some kind of logic behind it Had we only needed one score then voila...

Its seemed to me, something Ive seen payton do. Sp turns the clock over to Brees at a certain point. When I watch the game thats what I thought was happening. I thought BB was out of it and Brady was in charge.

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree with absolutely everything you wrote and observed. I kept screaming yesterday (to my girlfriend's horror) about why they kept bringing BJGE out of the game and abandoning the run. He was breaking off chunks of yardage every time he touched the ball. By the time BOB figured out "hey, we can run on this team!", there was five minutes left in the game and the time was just dripping off the clock every time there was a hand-off. Perhaps if we had stuck to the running game more throughout the game, the result would have been different.

Question: How many times did you observe the Jets dropping a safety into the box? I saw it happen quite a bit yesterday. After answering that, can you observe whether or not any of our pass catching TE's were in when the safety dropped down into the box and whether or not they were assigned to block? I feel like I saw this happen often yesterday and, most of the time when I DID see it, the TE really didn't have anyone to block as Light and Vollmer had their man handled.