Division Round: Jets at Pats, 1/16/2011

[jmt57]

I think this article was intended to boost confidence in New Yorkers that the results of week two could be repeated. I actually came away feeling more confident in the Pats, because I see many reasons to expect that neither Sanchez nor Brady will repeat their week two performances.

So What Did the Jets Do Right When They Beat the Patriots in Week 2? -- The Sports Section | New York Magazine | New York Times

The short answer: Mark Sanchez. The second-year quarterback had a terrific game: He completed 21 (out of 30) passes and threw for three touchdowns (both career highs), good for 220 yards and what's still the highest single-game passer rating of his career. (He also didn't throw an interception.)

In any case, Tom Brady threw for 248 yards on 20–36 passing on the day, but also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble as a result of a late sack by Jason Taylor.

There's also an obligatory 'keys to the game' column; this one is by Ian Rapoport on behalf of The Sporting News.

AFC Divisional playoff matchup: New York Jets at New England Patriots - NFL - Sporting News

Three key Jets

CB Darrelle Revis. With Revis in top shape again, don’t expect Brady to throw his way. Instead, the onus is on Revis’ counterpart, Antonio Cromartie, who was victimized badly by Brady in the 45-3 loss. If bad Cromartie shows up and he can’t keep up with the Patriots’ quickness, it could be a long game.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson. The aging running back looked young again in the first round of the playoffs, gaining 82 yards and scoring twice on the ground against the Colts. It was the first time he gained more than 57 yards since Oct. 11. That helped his team keep the ball away from Peyton Manning. The Jets may look to employ the same strategy against Brady, and Tomlinson could help the Jets maintain control of the game.

LB Bart Scott. Scott can be a solid run-stopper, but like the rest of his unit, he often gets exposed in pass coverage. That was the case in December, when Danny Woodhead constantly eluded Jets defenders and gained 104 yards receiving. The main point of emphasis for Scott is wrapping up Patriots ball-catchers underneath once they make a catch, not allowing anything extra.

The bottom line

With the home crowd staying nice and quiet while they are on offense, the Patriots will have plenty of time for Brady to diagnose what Ryan is cooking up — an overload on one side, a tricky blitz on the other. Brady unloads the ball more quickly than anyone, which is why he is rarely fazed by the Jets’ defensive looks. Don’t expect that to change. The Jets have played in some big games, making huge plays at the end. But they haven’t had to scratch and claw back against a team like New England. Don’t be surprised if the Pats jump out to a quick lead, limit mistakes, and take a cruise-control win. Prediction: Patriots 35, Jets 20

 

[Free_Pacman]

Does anyone know exactly what time is kickoff? Will the game begin at 4:30? The thing is I have a school organization meeting at 8 and I'm the VP and I already pushed the meeting back. Do you think the game will be over by 8 assuming it doesn't go into OT? I figure at most 3:20 for a regulation game, right?

 

[jmt57]

It feels like sunday afternoon is never going to get here. I think the bye week makes it feel that much longer for me. I'm glad work will be busy for me saturday night as by the time I'll be done and home, it will be close to 3am. I always seem to have a hard time sleeping the night before a playoff game. Anybody else like this?

I know what you mean. And both times this season it was leading up to a game against the Jets. Three weeks since a meaningful game this time, the extra time off after playing early (Thanksgiving) last time.

Big game coming up fellas. If the Pats win the coin toss should be kick it or start out with the offense?

I'm a proponent of starting out the second half with the ball myself.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

Does anyone know exactly what time is kickoff? Will the game begin at 4:30? The thing is I have a school organization meeting at 8 and I'm the VP and I already pushed the meeting back. Do you think the game will be over by 8 assuming it doesn't go into OT? I figure at most 3:20 for a regulation game, right?

I think you will miss maybe the last couple minutes of the game at the most.

 

[jmt57]

Key will be for Sanchez to have a completion rate of less than 60% which he has done up in Foxboro, a place he has yet to win in.

Sanchez has had a few 60% plus game, particularly against Pittsburgh but that was out of a pared playbook which is giftwrapping it for the Patriots D.

As tired as it sounds, the key is still stopping their run game, and with that in mind, I think we are going to open in our run-stopping nickel and I have a feeling it will be a 24 package with plenty of reduced lines, because linebackers are what we have, not defensive linemen. This would put Wilfork just off Mangold, instead of playing BOB and that has given Mangold fits in the past, because he must snap and then bucket step. I think we will see more of that shifting line that we saw in game 2 at Foxboro because it gave their OL the fits, as well as messing up Sanchez's timing.

On offense, the key for us is just to play smart and of course avoid the turnover. With our multiple formations and alignments, the Jets can only mix and match so much, and I think Ryan realizes it was dumb to try and outguess that by shifting Revis all over. This time I think he will just have Revis stick on Welker and take him out to try and slow down the game and reduce the checkdowns. I would look for plenty of stacks on the line and pick plays, the high-lo drags. If the cover 2 is deep, throw the smash at them, and if they stack the box, plenty of play-action with the run. I would not be surprised to see us run trips and counterthrow on those.

Great job; that's a helluva breakdown. Of course I did have to read it three times before it sank in. Lots of people talk about stopping the running game but you're the first I've seen to explain HOW to accomplish that.

Thanks a lot for the analysis.

 

[jmt57]

Does anyone know exactly what time is kickoff? Will the game begin at 4:30? The thing is I have a school organization meeting at 8 and I'm the VP and I already pushed the meeting back. Do you think the game will be over by 8 assuming it doesn't go into OT? I figure at most 3:20 for a regulation game, right?

Looking at last weekend's games they were all over in well less than 3:30. Besides, the networks want the game over before 8:00 so they can start their primetime shows at their regular times; they're not going to load up with extra commercials and have it run past 8:00. Unless it goes into overtime you should be fine; it should be over at about 7:30 - 7:45.

 

[Patspsycho]

One thing I guarantee is that our run game is going to have the same success it did last time. Because we run so much with the Ace package (212) there are almost always at least five blockers at work and with that much, it becomes a numbers game, where you have block after block, nullifying the Jets personnel until there is nothing left but what is upfield (DB) and thus BJGE or Woodhead can release way past the 2nd level.

For example, on the first run of the 2nd game in Foxboro we are in 212, Crumper weakside I offset, line blocks weakside except for Mankins running a trap nullifying the DE, opening the gate for Crumpler to climb over and stone Harris, and once BJGE is on 2nd level, Connolly and Light have swept back to neutralize the rest of the backers with Gronk who logs Smith. That is five blocks and in the numbers game that absolutely nullifies the Jets personnel up to and past the 2nd level and BJGE is able to gain 13 yards on the play before Revis tackles him.

Of course you can cheat a safety to the box, but that opens up the seams.

It just almost is unfair that we should have such multi-talented personnel, players who are solid blockers and can catch a pass anytime.

 

[SoCal Pmen]

Not sure if this has been brought up in other threads but I'm somewhat surprised this game was scheduled for Sunday afternoon versus Saturday. Gives the lower seeded Steelers/Ravens an extra day of rest/preparation.

 

[Patspsycho]

Great job; that's a helluva breakdown. Of course I did have to read it three times before it sank in. Lots of people talk about stopping the running game but you're the first I've seen to explain HOW to accomplish that.

Thanks a lot for the analysis.

I didn't really explain anything in detail. Because Mangold comes as near as anyone can, in the league, to neutralizing Wilfork, I think the Jets like to work the B gaps as far as the run game is concerned, and I think with a reduced line (we walk the backers standing up into the A gaps where they can rush or drop) this complicates Mangold's task because he has a split second to decide who to block, the backer(s) in the A gap who may or may not be rushing, or Wilfork on the outside shade on either side, or the opposite DE. Additionally we complicate this by shifting the line after Sanchez makes the initial identification of the mike. This makes Mangold have to change the protection again. This in theory is ideal for stopping the IZ run but not sure about OZ, especially if TBC is holding up one end. On the other hand, Murrell is playing, and he is a monster on the edge. That is one matchup I am very excited about.

 

[SVN]

possible kiss of death- collinsworth picked the pats to win 28-17

 

[Patspsycho]

One thing to remember is that Eric Moore did not play in this game (the 45-3 game). I believe that with his effectiveness at DE, he will be a factor in this game. One thing I saw us doing is with that shift thing, we sometimes went into a 40 front at the last minute, and I think this is where Moore will feature prominently.

 

[Patspsycho]

i think they did put revis on welker a few times. Pats countered by moving him to the backfield and confusing them with woody also there i think.

Revis was on Welker a few times, but he also was on everyone else who was not a lineman. That was stupid. On the few times He was in consistent man on welker they ran him out on wheel routes to identify the coverages. That's why Brady was picking them apart.

 

[jmt57]

Jonathan Comey looks at ten players that could be the x-factor in Sunday's game:
Patriots-Jets: X-factors could be difference makers | SouthCoastToday.com

Antonio Cromartie, CB, Jets: Cromartie played some of his worst football against the Patriots this year, especially in the Week 13 drubbing. With Darrelle Revis back at his 2009 level the second half of the season, Tom Brady will certainly be looking in Cromartie's direction a lot Sunday. Cromartie was picked apart by Peyton Manning in the win over the Colts last week, but his problems were lost in the thrill of victory. He's going to have to have a big game against the Patriots if the Jets have hopes of an upset.

Dan Koppen, C, Patriots: Koppen really had trouble early in the season with instability around him at both guard spots, but has been great during the Patriots' big second-half run. But he faces a big challenge in Jets NT Sione Pouha, who has been a real strength in place of Kris Jenkins this year and got the better of Koppen in both games this year. With the starter at right guard a game-time decision, Koppen is going to need to be at his best Sunday.

Jason Taylor, OLB, Jets: Taylor is no superstar anymore, and the Jets are probably playing him more snaps than they'd really like to. With starting OLB Bryan Thomas struggling with an ankle injury, Taylor will probably play a lot against the Pats Sunday — which is good news for New England. Despite doing a lot of blitzing, Taylor only has two sacks in the Jets' last 12 games and will need to play like his young Miami self against Matt Light if the Jets want to force Brady into a mistake or two.

Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo tackles questions about the Jets - Quincy, MA - The Patriot Ledger

Q: Has it been easier jumping back into preparation having only played them a month ago?
JM: I mean, yeah. We played them a couple of weeks ago, so you go in and we still know what they do. But, at the same time, they do a little bit different things in the playoffs. Against the Colts, they showed some different looks. So, we still have to study film and study these last couple of weeks that we didn’t play them and hopefully get it ready to go.

Q: How different you expect this game to be compared to the last one?
JM: I think it will be very different. Like I said, they did a couple of different looks against the Colts. They got [Mark] Sanchez out of the pocket a little bit, trying to protect him. At the same time, they still want to run the ball, so we still have to study a lot of film.

Q: What did you learn from the trouble your defense had stopping the Jets’ run game in the second half of the last game?
JM: What they were trying to do was get us in those sub packages and things like that and run the football. Now, we show different looks and move the defensive line around a little bit and try to stop the run that way.

Jets Have Reasons to Believe - WSJ.com
Scott Cacciola starts out by pointing out that the Jets beat the Patriots earlier - and then realizes that is a stupid reason why the Jets have a reason to believe. He follows that up with how the Jets offense played well against the Bears, they have recovered from the loss of Jim Leonhard, and have won a lot of close games.

Maybe the Wall Street Journal should stick to economics rather than sports.



The Jets shouldn't blitz theory:
Like With Manning, Jets Shouldn't Blitz Brady - WSJ.com

Rex Ryan placed his signature blitzing schemes in mothballs for all but two plays in the Jets' Wild Card win over Peyton Manning's Colts. The numbers say any chance for a Jets upset of Tom Brady and the Patriots will require a similarly conservative defensive approach.

Brady's yards-per-pass attempt when the Jets blitz has steadily climbed in each successive meeting against Ryan's defense. The trend is unlikely to continue, but that's only because Brady last outing against the Jets' extra rushers was superhuman—18.1 yards on average against the 11 blitz calls. His QB rating against the blitz was a near perfect 154.4, keying the Patriots 45-3 win.

The Jets have to blitz theory:
Rex Ryan must dial up blitzes, bring more pressure on Tom Brady than Jets did on Peyton Manning | Manish Mehta | NY Daily News

Here's the truth about Rex Ryan's brilliant game plan that foiled Peyton Manning in the Jets' wild-card win last Saturday night: It's already outdated.

The blueprint for stopping Tom Brady and the Patriots' top-ranked scoring offense in the divisional playoff round on Sunday will be markedly different. Don't expect the Jets to duplicate their fairly conservative approach from Indianapolis. Ryan's team rarely blitzed Manning and opted to play coverage on a consistent basis. The move paid off as Manning had trouble finding receivers within the Jets' mixing of man and zone coverages.

However, bringing just three- or four-man pressure against Brady probably isn't the best way to topple the Patriots.

"You don't want to have Brady just sit back in there in the pocket," Darrelle Revis said. "Because he'll tear you apart."

Brady has carved up just about every team that has taken the treacherous path of dropping seven or eight men into coverage. Rex's twin brother, Rob, is the only defensive coordinator to stymie Brady with that approach. The Browns actually rushed only two defenders and dropped an unfathomable nine into coverage a couple times in the Patriots' 34-14 loss to the Browns in Week 9. Brady responded to that humiliating loss by helping the Patriots score at least 31 points every week en route to eight consecutive wins.

 

[SVN]

NFL Videos: On the Beat: Jets under Brady's skin?

i wonder if this is a calculated and concerted effort by the jets.

 

[BelichickFan]

Not sure if this has been brought up in other threads but I'm somewhat surprised this game was scheduled for Sunday afternoon versus Saturday. Gives the lower seeded Steelers/Ravens an extra day of rest/preparation.

We actually get the extra day of preparation, as soon as the Ravens/Steelers game is over we'll know the opponent whereas that winner won't know who they're facing until Sunday night. Of course all 4 teams will be working on the other three now but before the Pats/Jest game, we'll have people working on the Ravens/Steelers winner.

I just want to point out the amazing irony that the Jets defense is currently built to stop the opening day Patriots, with Cromartie's length against Moss; too bad Randy isn't here anymore and now the Jets have very little change to defend our offense.

 

[jmt57]

Not sure if this has been brought up in other threads but I'm somewhat surprised this game was scheduled for Sunday afternoon versus Saturday. Gives the lower seeded Steelers/Ravens an extra day of rest/preparation.

To add on to BelichickFan's reply: first off, one of the lower seeded (i.e, #2 vs whoever) teams is always going to get an extra day of prep by playing on Saturday. The NFL is not going to have both #1 seeds play Saturday; they're nearly always going to have one #1 play Saturday night and the other #1 play the late Sunday game in the division round.

As for which team gets the Saturday night game and which gets the late Sunday game, it's a case of appeasing all business partners- the networks. Typically they alternate, though that's not always the case. Also, the schedules are set up before the wild card round games are played.

I think one big factor in this case is that FOX got what was considered to be the worst wild card game (Saints-Seahawks) because NBC got the other NFC game (Packers-Eagles). It would make sense that FOX would in turn get the best time slot (prime time, Saturday night) to offset that the following week.

 

[Coach42]

The actual GAME

I would like to get away from the trash talk and talent comparisons for a second and talk about the actual game on Sunday. As I see it (and most Jet fans from what I gather on their boards) their weakness is their inability to get to the QB and the fact that they only go two deep on players who can play decent pass D (Revis superstar and Cromartie). The last time these teams played the Pats exploited these weaknesses to the tune of a 45-3 beatdown. Is there anything the Jets can do to make up for these problems? I say no they just don't have the players to do it. Discuss.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Re: The actual GAME

I think their biggest weakness is their softness in the middle of the field when they play man-to-man.

 

[PatsChamp88]

possible kiss of death- collinsworth picked the pats to win 28-17

Your first mistake was listening to Collinsworth

 

[TheTeufelShuffle]

Re: The actual GAME

I would like to get away from the trash talk and talent comparisons for a second and talk about the actual game on Sunday. As I see it (and most Jet fans from what I gather on their boards) their weakness is their inability to get to the QB and the fact that they only go two deep on players who can play decent pass D (Revis superstar and Cromartie). The last time these teams played the Pats exploited these weaknesses to the tune of a 45-3 beatdown. Is there anything the Jets can do to make up for these problems? I say no they just don't have the players to do it. Discuss.

I think the jets will use the packages they used versus Indy. Which is very different than how they played versus the Pats last time out.

What that means is, taking Bart Scott out of the game and inserting Eric Smith as the 3rd safety playing the MIKE with Lowery (better cover man than Smith) and Pool deep in a 2 shell. Considering the jets will have 3cb on the field also with Coleman or Cole, that would be a 6DB set up for most of the game.

The idea versus Manning, and it applies to Brady, is that if they are handing off you have already won a small battle.

Now, we all know the Pats have a real run game. So your risk is the Pats control the ball and the clock with long scoring drives on the ground. But that still keeps you in the game better than getting down 17-0 on mismatches like Scott on Woodhead or Scott on Hernandez.

Thomas and Pace will have to play big on the edges, with DeVito and Pryce holding the point of attack inside. If they can defend the run halfway decently with 6 in the box (one of the 6 being Smith) they can stay in this game and maybe make it interesting.