Division Round: Jets at Pats, 1/16/2011

[jmt57]

With the countdown at almost exactly five days to go before the Pats play the Jets, I figured it was time to start a pre-game discussion thread. Whether it be yours or something you found by the media, throw all your opinions, analysis, keys to the game and other random thoughts that don't warrant their own threads in this thread.

#6 New York Jets (12-5) at #1 New England Patriots (14-2)
Sunday January 16 at 4:30 p.m. EST on CBS
Jim Nantz and Phil Simms are the announcers
Kevin Harlan, Randy Cross and Kevin Kiley will do the radio broadcast
New England is currently favored by 8½ to 9 points
Over under is currently 45 points
The Money Line ranges from +300 to +350 for the Jets; -380 to -500 for the Pats

 

[SVN]

nantz and simms again. get ready to hear more jets jets jets during the broadcast.

 

[Keyser Söze]

NOT SIMMS UGHHHH

christ, he's done almost every Pats game. I cant stand that idiot, he adds absolutely nothing. Phil-osophy Har har har FU.

 

[jmt57]

The NFL Today: Jets vs. Patriots Breakdown - CBSSports.com NFL Video

In this rather superficial 3-minute video which starts with the premise of "is there any way the Jets can beat the Pats?", Boomer Esiason says that if the Jets can run the ball the way they did against the Colts then they have a 'puncher's chance' and notes that revenge is a big motivating factor for all athletes - though he stops short and says he doesn't think the Jets will win.

Shannon Sharpe thinks the Jets should put Darrelle Revis on Wes Welker, stay away from blitzes, and force the Pats to go on long drives to score.

Bill Cowher says the Jets do not have the passing game to keep up with the Pats in a high scoring game; he suggests they go with a bend-don't-break style of defense to limit the possessions.

Dan Marino likes BeJarvus Green-Ellis and feels that if the Pats don't beat themselves by turning the ball over, they're not going to lose.

 

[Patspsycho]

Finally, a drama-free thread that's strictly X and O's. Hope it stays that way.

 

[kkpat]

getting very anstsy about the game. Need to relax. Can't. The foot Rexy keeps singing driving my BP up and up.

 

[NHPATSFAN11]

I am also antsy as well. I am a teacher and had a snow day today; it was a very productive one, I spent from 10 am to 4 p.m. browsing the internet for pats-jets articles. I dont think I am even going to be able to sleep friday or saturday night.

 

[jmt57]

Finally, a drama-free thread that's strictly X and O's. Hope it stays that way.

I figured I'd start a humorous thread about some pre-game analysis as a temporary diversion from the REAL story this week, "What Did Rex Say Now!"

Unfortunately this topic may quickly drop to page two or three, I don't know.



From behind enemy lines: BACK PAGE: Jets must play like underdog Packers to beat Patriots | New York Post

The Patriots hit a different level when the calendar turned to December.

The Jets know that better than most, the first of New England's late-season victims in a 45-3 rout. The Patriots followed that with a 36-7 mauling of the NFC North champion Bears. Two weeks later, they blasted the Bills 34-3, and even though there finale was meaningless, the Patriots still hammered the rival Dolphins, 38-7.

In between those four games was another win that came by a much-closer margin. The Patriots edged the Packers, 31-27 on Dec. 19 in New England.

Despite losing, the Packers laid out a game plan the Jets must follow if they have a chance to avenge that horrifying loss and advance to the AFC Championship. It’s a game plan the Jets have the personnel to follow; the question is, do they have the mindset? In order to beat the Patriots, the Jets and Rex Ryan must admit to themselves they are not as good as the Patriots.

So, apparently we have another one of those "they showed us the blueprint on how to beat them" columns. Hey, it's better than 'I can't believe what they're saying on the Jets forum'.

Their first bullet point is the element of surprise, such as an early trick play or scheme to gain momentum; analogy to the GB game is the onside kick. Next is a big play (the 66-yard TD pass to James Jones); the writer feels that "WRs Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are capable of burning a mostly inexperienced Patriots secondary", and should be able to pull it off because Sanchez is better/more experienced than Matt Flynn.

Next he points to the time of possession in the Packer game where Green Bay held the ball for over 40 minutes; he feels since the Jets have a better running game based on yards per carry that they too should be able to do the same thing, which will result in them being able to keep Brady on the sidelines.

Last thing he points to is avoiding the big mistake, pointing out Connolly's 71-yard kick return and Arrington's pick six. Of course he neglects to make a connection between those plays and the previously mentioned TOP, or why he feels Sanchez will play error-free ball in Foxboro Sunday.

 

[Patspsycho]

Key will be for Sanchez to have a completion rate of less than 60% which he has done up in Foxboro, a place he has yet to win in.

Sanchez has had a few 60% plus game, particularly against Pittsburgh but that was out of a pared playbook which is giftwrapping it for the Patriots D.

As tired as it sounds, the key is still stopping their run game, and with that in mind, I think we are going to open in our run-stopping nickel and I have a feeling it will be a 24 package with plenty of reduced lines, because linebackers are what we have, not defensive linemen. This would put Wilfork just off Mangold, instead of playing BOB and that has given Mangold fits in the past, because he must snap and then bucket step. I think we will see more of that shifting line that we saw in game 2 at Foxboro because it gave their OL the fits, as well as messing up Sanchez's timing.

On offense, the key for us is just to play smart and of course avoid the turnover. With our multiple formations and alignments, the Jets can only mix and match so much, and I think Ryan realizes it was dumb to try and outguess that by shifting Revis all over. This time I think he will just have Revis stick on Welker and take him out to try and slow down the game and reduce the checkdowns. I would look for plenty of stacks on the line and pick plays, the high-lo drags. If the cover 2 is deep, throw the smash at them, and if they stack the box, plenty of play-action with the run. I would not be surprised to see us run trips and counterthrow on those.

 

[PatsChamp88]

Some interesting tidbits here:

Sports - Pro Football - The Fifth Down Blog - NYTimes.com

 

[SVN]

I figured I'd start a humorous thread about some pre-game analysis as a temporary diversion from the REAL story this week, "What Did Rex Say Now!"

Unfortunately this topic may quickly drop to page two or three, I don't know.



From behind enemy lines: BACK PAGE: Jets must play like underdog Packers to beat Patriots | New York Post



So, apparently we have another one of those "they showed us the blueprint on how to beat them" columns. Hey, it's better than 'I can't believe what they're saying on the Jets forum'.

Their first bullet point is the element of surprise, such as an early trick play or scheme to gain momentum; analogy to the GB game is the onside kick. Next is a big play (the 66-yard TD pass to James Jones); the writer feels that "WRs Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are capable of burning a mostly inexperienced Patriots secondary", and should be able to pull it off because Sanchez is better/more experienced than Matt Flynn.

Next he points to the time of possession in the Packer game where Green Bay held the ball for over 40 minutes; he feels since the Jets have a better running game based on yards per carry that they too should be able to do the same thing, which will result in them being able to keep Brady on the sidelines.

Last thing he points to is avoiding the big mistake, pointing out Connolly's 71-yard kick return and Arrington's pick six. Of course he neglects to make a connection between those plays and the previously mentioned TOP, or why he feels Sanchez will play error-free ball in Foxboro Sunday.

Francesa on WFAN keeps harping on the packer game and says this defense is not good and has the advantage of playing with big leads early.Of course he uses the packer game as an example but fails to note that the D sets up lot of these short yardages and breaks open the game.
IMO, if the pats dont get a turnover or 2, it could be a close game.More impressive IMO that brady's non interception streak is that this D has generated turnovers in every game since cleveland and soemtimes more than one .

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Shannon Sharpe thinks the Jets should put Darrelle Revis on Wes Welker, stay away from blitzes, and force the Pats to go on long drives to score.

Great point, besides the fact that it's stupid. First, that WAS the Jets game plan in the 45-3 massacre. When the Pats spread the ball around the field, it isn't as simple as "this guy shuts down this guy"- and if you want to make it that simple, there will be huge mismatches. Also, the Pats have moved the ball easily when Welker has been shut down. For anyone paying attention, the gigantic problem in stopping the Pats are the two tight ends.

Bill Cowher says the Jets do not have the passing game to keep up with the Pats in a high scoring game; he suggests they go with a bend-don't-break style of defense to limit the possessions.

Also a great point, if not for it being stupid. "Bend-but-don't-break" is exactly the type of defense that doesn't work against the Patriots. They are not a threat in the vertical game, so why would you strategize to keep the big play from happening? You are basically daring them to beat you with high efficiency short passes. That's a recipe for success against this team? Perhaps he meant red-zone defense, which is a different concept. If that's the case, I would agree.

 

[SVN]

Key will be for Sanchez to have a completion rate of less than 60% which he has done up in Foxboro, a place he has yet to win in.

Sanchez has had a few 60% plus game, particularly against Pittsburgh but that was out of a pared playbook which is giftwrapping it for the Patriots D.

As tired as it sounds, the key is still stopping their run game, and with that in mind, I think we are going to open in our run-stopping nickel and I have a feeling it will be a 24 package with plenty of reduced lines, because linebackers are what we have, not defensive linemen. This would put Wilfork just off Mangold, instead of playing BOB and that has given Mangold fits in the past, because he must snap and then bucket step. I think we will see more of that shifting line that we saw in game 2 at Foxboro because it gave their OL the fits, as well as messing up Sanchez's timing.

On offense, the key for us is just to play smart and of course avoid the turnover. With our multiple formations and alignments, the Jets can only mix and match so much, and I think Ryan realizes it was dumb to try and outguess that by shifting Revis all over. This time I think he will just have Revis stick on Welker and take him out to try and slow down the game and reduce the checkdowns. I would look for plenty of stacks on the line and pick plays, the high-lo drags. If the cover 2 is deep, throw the smash at them, and if they stack the box, plenty of play-action with the run. I would not be surprised to see us run trips and counterthrow on those.

i think they did put revis on welker a few times. Pats countered by moving him to the backfield and confusing them with woody also there i think.

 

[102 Pat]

It feels like sunday afternoon is never going to get here. I think the bye week makes it feel that much longer for me. I'm glad work will be busy for me saturday night as by the time I'll be done and home, it will be close to 3am. I always seem to have a hard time sleeping the night before a playoff game. Anybody else like this?

 

[patfanken]

i think they did put revis on welker a few times. Pats countered by moving him to the backfield and confusing them with woody also there i think.

That's the beauty of the Pats flexible offense. Through motion and formation, the Pats can protect a their small receivers and get them free releases off the line if they are being out physicalled at the LOS.

I will be VERY interested to see how Rex decides to defend Brady. He had some success in game 2 in the 2nd half with max protection schemes. Schemes that were very similar with what he showed vs Manning.

In December he came after Brady with a lot of blitzes with the obvious negative results. Common wisdom would make us think that we'll see more of the same as what we saw vs Indy. 2 deep S's with man/zone/and combination of both with tight coverage in the short to midrange areas.

But if it seem so clear to us, I'm sure BB will be well prepared to combat that strategy, and I think Rex knows it. The question is does he have to the nuts to go against conventional wisdom and a slew of new blitz schemes that can create enough pressure on Brady to disrupt our offensive rhythm. The ones he's thrown at him thus far have been pretty well blocked.

BTW- thanks to jmt for putting this thread together each week and continually updating them in between the inane post from people like myself.

 

[PatsChamp88]

Also a great point, if not for it being stupid. "Bend-but-don't-break" is exactly the type of defense that doesn't work against the Patriots. They are not a threat in the vertical game, so why would you strategize to keep the big play from happening? You are basically daring them to beat you with high efficiency short passes. That's a recipe for success against this team? Perhaps he meant red-zone defense, which is a different concept. If that's the case, I would agree.

Yeah maybe he meant their defense will give up yards (bend) but play well in the red zone(don't break)? Sure that might help limit New England's possessions but I think more of that falls on their offense and it's ability to run the ball which when playing from behind will work well

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

Big game coming up fellas. If the Pats win the coin toss should be kick it or start out with the offense?

 

[jmt57]

While all the talk has been Belichick vs Ryan and Brady vs Sanchez, the most important individual battle may be Vince Wilfork vs Nick Mangold. The HC and QB may get the most press, but games are still won and lost in the trenches.



This first article links to the Boston Herald but it's actually written by Tom Rock of Newsday, a Long Island newspaper.

Jets' ground game gets Patriots' attention - BostonHerald.com

It’s no secret that the Jets’ running attack doesn’t start with a handoff to one of their backs, though. The offensive line starts things off. And on that line, it’s Nick Mangold who makes things happen.

"It all starts with Mangold," Bill Belichick said. "He’s as good a center as we’ve faced and he’s outstanding."

Belichick said that while there are primary holes for the running backs to slide through, the Jets always have a backup plan behind Mangold.

"It seems like there’s always a second point of attack, second entry point, wherever his block is," Belichick said.

But just as the Jets’ running offense starts with Mangold, the Patriots’ defense starts with Wilfork. Belichick compared the way he keeps offensive linemen off Mayo to the way Mean Joe Greene protected Jack Lambert in the days of the Steel Curtain. "A nose tackle is an inside linebacker’s best friend," Belichick said.

And a nose tackle’s worst enemy? Well, that might be Mangold. Wilfork knows that very well, having faced him many times in his career.

"The offensive line is just big and physical," Wilfork said. "They can get away with a lot of guys being single-blocked because they have the faith and confidence in their offensive line being able to go out there and block head up, getting a hat on a hat and moving power. Up front, we’re going to have to do a real good job. Because if they get a running game going and we can’t slow them down, it will be a long day for us."

Cris Collinsworth also talks about the importance of the Mangold-Wilfork matchup - and then points something out that many Jets fans overlook when bringing up the Jet cornerbacks.

Collinsworth: Don't expect another lopsided Pats win vs. Jets - Sunday Night Football- NBC Sports

If I only get to watch one matchup in this game, I would watch Jets center Nick Mangold against Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork. Both may be the best in the NFL at their respective positions. Wilfork generally eliminates all runs between the guards, but if Mangold could neutralize Wilfork in a way most teams cannot.

The Jets also have two outstanding cover cornerbacks, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Unfortunately for the Jets, the Patriots' strength are their inside receivers, not the guys Revis and Cromartie generally cover. To beat the Patriots you have to shut down rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez — in addition to Wes Welker. That means the burden will be on guys such as Eric Smith, Brodney Pool, Dwight Lowery, Drew Coleman and rookie Kyle Wilson to cover the short, quick passes.

Jets must establish run against Patriots - Newsday

For the first half of their 17-16 wild-card playoff win at Indianapolis , the Jets forgot who they are on offense in an effort to be unpredictable. It wasn't until they reverted to their "ground and pound'' identity with two long touchdown drives that they took control.

Was it a lesson learned? If the Jets can do it again, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will be harmless watching from the bench in their divisional playoff game Sunday at Gillette Stadium .

Using the running game to effectively punch the Patriots in the mouth, fullback Tony Richardson said Tuesday, "sounds good on paper, but they're a tough, physical football team. I don't think we're just going to line up and mash these guys.

"They're probably the best-coached team you're ever going to see. They're very, very sound in technique . . . They don't beat themselves. But yeah, that's the mentality you take. You want to go up there and impose your will. Sometimes, that's easier said than done.''

"He's a full-grown man in there,'' said Richardson, who has run into Wilfork many times as a lead blocker. "I've been around this game a long time, and he's one of the best at eating up double-teams.''

The Jets ran for 136 yards in their 28-14 home win over the Pats and actually improved to 152 yards in their stunning 45-3 loss Dec. 6 at New England.

"Everyone keeps saying, 'Oh, you guys ran the ball well,' '' Richardson said. "We only scored three points. So we definitely want to run the ball, but we've got to put points on the board.''

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I just want the game to be here..i am confident they will win but theres always a change that things can go south in anything..would rather lose the AFC champ game than this one even though the farther you get..the harder it is when taking a loss..GO PATS

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

That means the burden will be on guys such as Eric Smith, Brodney Pool, Dwight Lowery, Drew Coleman and rookie Kyle Wilson to cover the short, quick passes.

This is the key to the game ladies and gentlemen. If these players cant stop our TE's and passes out of backfield..pats will win easily. Its amazing that two rookie TE's are going to have to get major recognition from the D on Sunday