Top Needs Without Re-signings or Extensions

[mgteich]

Before I even look at the 2 passrushers (DE and OLB) posters here want every year, there are SEVEN more important needs IMHO. Obviously these needs (and any needs) might be met before the draft through free agency, trades, re-signings and extensions. This is why it is so unreasonable for us to focus on players or positions that we HAVE TO HAVE at this early date.

So, while I expect us to draft a front seven player early, I would not be surprised to see say Ingram, Weisnewski the bsa (best safety available) in our future (after taking care of LT and LG before the draft).

LT (unless Light is re-signed)
LG (unless Mankins is re-signed)
RG (unless the team does not feel that Connolly needs to be upgraded
C (Koppen is in his last year; or we could extend Koppen)
S (it takes at least a year for us to train a safety; or we could extend both safeties)
RB (some of us are kidding ourselves; we have 2 solid RB's and 2-3 open positions)
NT backup (I'm not satisfied with Love; re-signing G. Warren would be a solution)

MY BOTTOM LINE
I see solving the OL issues as our first priority, and our next ones bring in a running back and a safety.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Before I even look at the 2 passrushers (DE and OLB) posters here want every year, there are SEVEN more important needs IMHO. Obviously these needs (and any needs) might be met before the draft through free agency, trades, re-signings and extensions. This is why it is so unreasonable for us to focus on players or positions that we HAVE TO HAVE at this early date.

So, while I expect us to draft a front seven player early, I would not be surprised to see say Ingram, Weisnewski the bsa (best safety available) in our future (after taking care of LT and LG before the draft).

LT (unless Light is re-signed)
LG (unless Mankins is re-signed)
RG (unless the team does not feel that Connolly needs to be upgraded
C (Koppen is in his last year; or we could extend Koppen)
S (it takes at least a year for us to train a safety; or we could extend both safeties)
RB (some of us are kidding ourselves; we have 2 solid RB's and 2-3 open positions)
NT backup (I'm not satisfied with Love; re-signing G. Warren would be a solution)

MY BOTTOM LINE
I see solving the OL issues as our first priority, and our next ones bring in a running back and a safety.

I see a DE,OT and OLB being the picked with their 3 picks in the top 33 assuming they don't trade or pick a player they figure too good to pass up.
At least 1 of Light and Mankins will be resigned and I can't see them letting Mankins go at this point. A safety and RB can be taken in rounds 2-4. Connolly and Wendell can play center. Not sure what you have against Love but he played well for a first year undrafted player in the Pats system. If you're saying that their first 3 picks will be RB, center and safety, I'll put money on it that that won't be the case.

 

[mgteich]

I'd put money against anyone's guess regarding our first three picks.

Yes, Love has played well for a rookie UDFA. That and a couple of bucks will buy him a coffee as Dunkin Donuts and an opportunity to compete for a roster spot next year. Love has been absolutely aweful as a NT backup and he isn't anywhere near the others in other roles. He's been better than some of the walkons.

Don't get me wrong. Given that we have three defensive linemen on the IR, I'm glad we have Love. Lovwe is an amergency player who has worked out OK.

I compare him to Fletcher who I think has played much better than Love. I think Fletcher has shown that he belongs on the roster.

I see a DE,OT and OLB being the picked with their 3 picks in the top 33 assuming they don't trade or pick a player they figure too good to pass up.
At least 1 of Light and Mankins will be resigned and I can't see them letting Mankins go at this point. A safety and RB can be taken in rounds 2-4. Connolly and Wendell can play center. Not sure what you have against Love but he played well for a first year undrafted player in the Pats system. If you're saying that their first 3 picks will be RB, center and safety, I'll put money on it that that won't be the case.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

I'd put money against anyone's guess regarding our first three picks.

Yes, Love has played well for a rookie UDFA. That and a couple of bucks will buy him a coffee as Dunkin Donuts and an opportunity to compete for a roster spot next year. Love has been absolutely aweful as a NT backup and he isn't anywhere near the others in other roles. He's been better than some of the walkons.

Don't get me wrong. Given that we have three defensive linemen on the IR, I'm glad we have Love. Lovwe is an amergency player who has worked out OK.

I compare him to Fletcher who I think has played much better than Love. I think Fletcher has shown that he belongs on the roster.

The Patriots haven't had two true Nose Tackles on the roster since 2004 with Wilfork and Traylor. You put backup NT above DE and OLB as a need in the draft. I don't see that happening.

 

[patsoxfan]

Pass rush (OLB) has been nonexistent for quite some time, so there is definite need there. I would project Volmer to move to LTackle. It is esier to find a RTackle in F/A or draft. resign Mankins. We have plenty of picks to go around, but if there is a special pass rusher or cornerback I dont see passing on it this year.

 

[MaineMan]

Pass rush (OLB) has been nonexistent for quite some time, so there is definite need there. I would project Volmer to move to LTackle. It is esier to find a RTackle in F/A or draft. resign Mankins. We have plenty of picks to go around, but if there is a special pass rusher or cornerback I dont see passing on it this year.

If you're talking about pass rush (sacks) being generated at a rate of, say, 9+ per year by one premier pass rushing OLB, that's never really existed in BB's tenure.

Since 2000 (11 seasons):
- A guy has topped 9 sacks for the Pats only four times: Vrabel (2x), McGinest (1x), and TBC (1x).
- The Pats sack leader has been a different guy each year, most often either an OLB or DE, but an interior D-lineman has led a couple times, too.
- Sacks have been distributed among 12-14 different guys each year, the exceptions being 2000, 2008 and 2009 (10 guys each).
- Sack totals have averaged 37 per year, 43 in Superbowl appearance years. Lowest annual totals (31 or less) have been 2000, 2008 and 2009.

In 2010, the defense produced 36 sacks distributed among 16 different guys (only one sack from a DB). Half of those came in the final six games and were distributed among 11 different guys.

Personally, I think BB's defensive philosophy is to have a pass rush that can come from any front-seven player at any position at any time so that offenses can't ever key on just one guy. So, I have my doubts that BB will ever draft a "pass-rushing OLB" or a DE whose primary claim to fame is his pass rush.

 

[MaineMan]

..........
MY BOTTOM LINE
I see solving the OL issues as our first priority, and our next ones bring in a running back and a safety.

Basically agree with this. What's unclear to me is just HOW O-line issues are going to be resolved. What direction BB and Dante choose to go with the O-line almost certainly effects what they do about the RB position as well.

Safety is pretty murky, as well. Including the guys on IR, we have eight safeties on the roster, but only one guy, Meriweather, who's clearly (to me) a decent deep coverage guy. It really depends on what the coaching staff sees in the rest of them and that could go a number of different ways, many of which wouldn't involve spending much on a safety in this year's draft.

But your main point - that numerous contract issues need to be resolved one way or the other before we can even begin to reasonably guess at what positions will actually be the priorities in the draft - is well-taken. Before that, any mock is really just wishful thinking.

 

[SanAngeloState]

I think they'll draft OL and RB heavily. But also they have austin, ohrn-bust, and the TE conversion as well as kaczur coming back from back surgery and levoir.

OLB, how long is Eric Moore signed for? He looks like the real deal...6'4" 265, makes plays all over the place..or is he useless in coverage?

Maybe we go more 4-3 or 4-2-5.

 

[patchick]

But your main point - that numerous contract issues need to be resolved one way or the other before we can even begin to reasonably guess at what positions will actually be the priorities in the draft - is well-taken. Before that, any mock is really just wishful thinking.

This is true every year, but it's even murkier than usual given the CBA mess. There's no saying whether there will even be a free agency period before the draft. However AFAIK teams can extend contracts for their own players through the end of the league year.

Does this pose a tactical disadvantage to the teams that play deep into the playoffs, do you suppose?

 

[UofApatsfan]

IMO, running back is a need but it's not a need worth addressing with a pick in the 1st 3 rounds. Woodhead and BGJE as the 2 main guys is working just fine, they have plenty of flexibility regarding what to have as the 3rd and 4th running back, but it would make no sense to use a high pick on someone like Ingram.

 

[mgteich]

Personally, I think that the backup NT need will be addressed by re-signing G. Warren.

The patriots have indeed TRIED to address the backup NT for several years. We drafted Kareem Brown in the 4th, Brace in the 2nd, have brought in Love and others over the last few years.

It is NOT a good idea to count on Wilfork for 70% of the reps. To count on him for so many reps and not having reasonable backups for those key reps is simply an accident waiting to happen.

To put it another way, Wilfork is indeed indispensible and irreplaceable. However, we do need to be able to function if he is out for a few plays or a few games. We prepare for backups at every key position. NT certainly rates such a concern.
======

With regard to NT being a more serious need than passrusher, I think it is a matter of perspective. I like our current from seven a lot. They will only get better as they play together more. Ty Warren will be back.

Personally, I do see us addressing the OL needs sufficiently well before the draft to allow us the LUXURY of adding a front seven draftee as one of first three picks.

The Patriots haven't had two true Nose Tackles on the roster since 2004 with Wilfork and Traylor. You put backup NT above DE and OLB as a need in the draft. I don't see that happening.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

This is true every year, but it's even murkier than usual given the CBA mess. There's no saying whether there will even be a free agency period before the draft. However AFAIK teams can extend contracts for their own players through the end of the league year.

Does this pose a tactical disadvantage to the teams that play deep into the playoffs, do you suppose?

Naturally! Especially if Pats make it to super bowl would have an extra week (before SB) to address this.

Regarding the chance there may not be a new CBA before draft - Not that I wan't to root for the CBA being done after the draft (I dont), but this could cause MANY teams to be scrambling to fill holes during the draft. As NEP have fewer holes than most teams - would really allow Pats drafting BPA approach and may get some great talent slipping.

Reason being -if this situation occurs (filling holes as no FA before) - I could really imagine heavy runs on critical positions such as QB, CB, LT, etc. As every team knows they need some decent starters at these crucial positions. Which may allow some blue chip talent (at a non critical position) to slide down.

Wishful thinking :singing:

 

[patchick]

Personally, I think that the backup NT need will be addressed by re-signing G. Warren.

The patriots have indeed TRIED to address the backup NT for several years. We drafted Kareem Brown in the 4th, Brace in the 2nd, have brought in Love and others over the last few years.

I'm with you on Warren, I like his versatility and I like having some vets aboard who have seen life on the other side of the fence and appreciate how green it is here.

As for "trying" in the past...I'm not sure any of the examples you listed really fill the bill. Kareem Brown was 6'4" 290 and I don't recall anybody considering him an NT, he has only played DE. Brace looked for all the world like an NT, but he lined up at DE from day 1 too. (That STILL baffles me.) And Love was simply a UDFA who stuck, and wasn't even active until linemen started dropping like flies late in the season.

 

[Luke Skywelker]

With the current lack of depth in the front 7, you would think at least one of the first three picks are going in that direction. If you ask me, I think based on need, tendencies, past errors, we don't look at any one of the following with that 17th pick(if we keep it).

QB
RB (I've seen a lot of Ingram here in mocks, but just no way)
TE's - stocked there
WR's - lot's of depth in the first round, but given Pryce/Edelman and coming back to strategy that works, doubtful
Safeties - unlikely, but possible depending on the organizational buy in of Merriweather

Which leaves us the Front 7 and OL, whereas the clearest need is on that front 7. It's also where this draft has the most depth. So if we keep that pick, what are the chances we go with one of the following 4?

Von Miller
Ryan Kerrigan
Cameron Jordan
Akeem Ayers

Unlikely that we see any of the studs drop to us. Would like have to trade up for (Bowers, Dareus, Quinn, Fairley). Most mocks I see have an assortment of those four go to us unless we go OL, whereas there just isn't the kind of OL talent in this draft to take with a pick that high. Nor has it been a tendency of BB's.

50%?

 

[SunnyDenmark]

With the current lack of depth in the front 7, you would think at least one of the first three picks are going in that direction. If you ask me, I think based on need, tendencies, past errors, we don't look at any one of the following with that 17th pick(if we keep it).

QB
RB (I've seen a lot of Ingram here in mocks, but just no way)
TE's - stocked there
WR's - lot's of depth in the first round, but given Pryce/Edelman and coming back to strategy that works, doubtful
Safeties - unlikely, but possible depending on the organizational buy in of Merriweather

Which leaves us the Front 7 and OL, whereas the clearest need is on that front 7. It's also where this draft has the most depth. So if we keep that pick, what are the chances we go with one of the following 4?

Von Miller
Ryan Kerrigan
Cameron Jordan
Akeem Ayers

Unlikely that we see any of the studs drop to us. Would like have to trade up for (Bowers, Dareus, Quinn, Fairley). Most mocks I see have an assortment of those four go to us unless we go OL, whereas there just isn't the kind of OL talent in this draft to take with a pick that high. Nor has it been a tendency of BB's.

50%?

"Your intuition serves you well Luke."

Nice post #2 and welcome aboard. You write with more sense than some posters with hundreds more posts. Keep it coming....

 

[MaineMan]

I'm with you on Warren, I like his versatility and I like having some vets aboard who have seen life on the other side of the fence and appreciate how green it is here.

As for "trying" in the past...I'm not sure any of the examples you listed really fill the bill. Kareem Brown was 6'4" 290 and I don't recall anybody considering him an NT, he has only played DE. Brace looked for all the world like an NT, but he lined up at DE from day 1 too. (That STILL baffles me.) And Love was simply a UDFA who stuck, and wasn't even active until linemen started dropping like flies late in the season.

Agree with you about Brown. I thought of him as a rotational DE, occasional interior pass-rusher, development project (mostly recently on the TEN roster as a utility D-linemen).

With Brace lining up at DE so far, I'm not sure that indicates that much about his future. Could be simply part of the specific development process for him - gets him snaps, gets him involved, broadens his view of D-line roles and increases his versatility.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm with you on Warren, I like his versatility and I like having some vets aboard who have seen life on the other side of the fence and appreciate how green it is here.

As for "trying" in the past...I'm not sure any of the examples you listed really fill the bill. Kareem Brown was 6'4" 290 and I don't recall anybody considering him an NT, he has only played DE. Brace looked for all the world like an NT, but he lined up at DE from day 1 too. (That STILL baffles me.) And Love was simply a UDFA who stuck, and wasn't even active until linemen started dropping like flies late in the season.

Yes Love "stuck" and was inactive before the injuries accumulated; however, Koppen has testified that working against him on the Scout team has improved his own game. As a rule I don't expect much from rookie DL, especially ones coming from a one-gap system and needing to learn NE's. They need to learn to read blocking schemes and blocks, it took Wilfork 1.5 seasons before he started to understand what was happening and apply his practice reps to counter the OL. Love "stuck," and he has a lot to learn, but I'm seeing progress and maybe a "Vince-lite" in the making.

 

[MaineMan]

Yes Love "stuck" and was inactive before the injuries accumulated; however, Koppen has testified that working against him on the Scout team has improved his own game. As a rule I don't expect much from rookie DL, especially ones coming from a one-gap system and needing to learn NE's. They need to learn to read blocking schemes and blocks, it took Wilfork 1.5 seasons before he started to understand what was happening and apply his practice reps to counter the OL. Love "stuck," and he has a lot to learn, but I'm seeing progress and maybe a "Vince-lite" in the making.

That compliment from Koppen is a positive reflection on himself, too - that's he's open to "taking a lesson" even from a UDFA rookie.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

That compliment from Koppen is a positive reflection on himself, too - that's he's open to "taking a lesson" even from a UDFA rookie.

What makes me better, Danno has always represented the Belichick constant improvement ideal and it's nice to know Love has the strength and quickness to make the NE OL work up a sweat in practice.

 

[mgteich]

I thought most most had Brown as a DT and as a potnetial backup NT for the pats.
=========
NT from patriots.com

Korch concluded, "We could always see the talent in him. Kareem’s going to take it to another level."

Brown agrees.

"Yes, I can [play nose tackle]. When we went to our 3-4, I played end. This is my dream…I will play whatever the Patriots ask me to play."
========================
DT from SI
SI.com - 2007 NFL Draft - Kareem Brown



Read more at: Meet the Rookies - DL Kareem Brown

Agree with you about Brown. I thought of him as a rotational DE, occasional interior pass-rusher, development project (mostly recently on the TEN roster as a utility D-linemen).

With Brace lining up at DE so far, I'm not sure that indicates that much about his future. Could be simply part of the specific development process for him - gets him snaps, gets him involved, broadens his view of D-line roles and increases his versatility.