The Value of pick #33

[onegr8om]

I love this pick. I think a majority of pats fans do as well, especially since we didn't "earn" the pick by being horrible and losing, but by actually doing smart business. Since last year i've wondered what a team like the Patriots could do with the supposed value of the pick and having a full day to wheel and deal and i'd LOVE to hear what everyone thinks we could turn this into. I'll start!

Patriots Trade Pick #33 to......

The Tampa Bay Bucs for their 1st round pick in 2012 AND Pick #51 in 2011.

This is something along the lines of what i'm HOPING for. My hopes is that some team who thinks they're VERY close falls in LOVE with a player who slides out of the first round. They may feel like a LOT of teams are vying for the pick from us and give more than they have to/want. I didn't use a draft chart value system because i think this pick really doesn't apply to that.

More than likely, it wouldn't be Tampa that would overpay for the pick. It would probably be a team who needs a QB that slides, but i just wanted to throw it out there. Thoughts? Ideas?

 

[Uncle Rico]

I like the idea that teams will know there's a lot of competition for 33, and wayoverpay for 32 to head them off. That would be cool.

 

[SirApropos]

I like the idea that teams will know there's a lot of competition for 33, and wayoverpay for 32 to head them off. That would be cool.

Agreed. I think it will be more likely that the Pats will trade back from 32 into round 2 than the 33rd.

Everyone though last year St. Louis would make some killer trade after having a whole night to wheel and deal the 33rd and it didn't happen.

However Minnesota traded their 30th pick to Detroit so they could move up and take Javid Best and moved back to 34, swapped 4th rounders and picked up a 7th rounder.

I could see the Pats doing something similar to the Vikings. Moving back a bit and swapping mid round picks with a team picking in the early spots. The pats also shouldn't have any picks after round 5 so they may use this tactic to pick some up or replace all of the late round 2012 picks they gave up for Moss (7th) and Tracy White (conditional 2012 6-7).

 

[cstjohn17]

Although pick #32 will pay a slightly higher salary it also gives the team the ability to sign a player for 5 years.

If there is a QB that a team likes at #32, having the five year window could make the pick have more value.

 

[Metaphors]

Interesting thread. There are a couple of components that go into this:

1) What player/position is likely to slip that could entice a trade?
2) What teams are missing high picks (more likely to trade up)?
3) What teams are under enough pressure to win now to give up a 2012 #1?

You are looking for the perfect storm of those 3 components. Looking at them one at a time:

1) Slipping 1st rounders?

From a position perspective, I would say QB and WR stand out. It is likely that the "first wave" of those positions will bleed out into day 2. That makes #33 a good position to get a Jake Locker or a Michael Floyd/Jon Baldwin. From a player perspective, I would look to Kyle Rudolph. He looks to be the top TE with a good-sized drop to the next guy.

2) Teams missing picks?

A handful of teams have traded away picks in the top 3 rounds. OAK (1st), CAR (2nd), MIA (2nd), NYJ (2nd or 3rd), WAS (3rd), MIN (3rd), SEA (3rd). I doubt the Fins or Jets are dealing with the Pats. The Panthers are unlikely to trade for their old pick (it would be embarrassing). That leaves the Raiders, Skins, Vikings and Seahawks.

3) Under pressure?

New coaches get a pass their 1st year so the eliminates OAK, DEN, CLE, SF, MIN and OAK. Garrett is not really "new" and the expectations in Dallas are so high, so they stay on the list. Knock off playoff teams and teams that were unexpectedly close (TB, STL). Eliminate the dumpster fires that are still crawling up to respectibility (BUF, DET). That leaves CIN, ARZ, TEN, DAL, WAS, HOU, MIA, JAX, SD and NYG.

So it looks to me like the Skins are the optimal trading partner. They need a QB (even if they sign a vet) and WRs. Ownership and the fan base are seriously losing patience with Shanahan. And they have shown in the past they are willing to mortgage the future to win now. Since the Skins don't have a 3rd or 4th this year, any trade would likely involve 2012 picks. Say a 1st and 3rd in 2012 for the #33 this year.

The other team that seems interesting is Houston. They need to revamp their entire secondary and this draft has some nice talent at the top. They will also need a TE if they don't re-sign Daniels. If they are transitioning to a 3-4, they also need some pieces to do that. However, their options might dry up before they pick in the 3rd round. They might be willing to trade their 3rd round pick and their 2012 #1 for #33 in order to have 3 picks (#11, #33, #42) to solidify their DBs to finally knock off the Colts next year.

 

[patfanken]

Agreed. I think it will be more likely that the Pats will trade back from 32 into round 2 than the 33rd.

No I think you do it in reverse. The reason to keep the 32nd is (I think) is that the team can control first rounders an extra year. IIRC after the first round you can only sign a guy for 4 years max. So if you want to trade down or out, the 33rd pick would be the place to do it.

 

[anotherbruschi]

The Patriots will have numerous options, but the 33rd pick in effect gives them 3 1st round picks this year.

 

[jeffbiologist]

There are numerous possibilities here but one thing I havent seen anyone suggest is to package say both our 2s to a team like Carolina for a 1st rounder next year. I think if its a notably bad draft maybe we grab our 2 first rounders and trade out. Truth is with the way we have been picking up players off the street I tend to think the draft is getting a bit over rated...anyone else?

 

[borg]

The Patriots will have numerous options, but the 33rd pick in effect gives them 3 1st round picks this year.

Or the 32nd pick in effect gives them 3 2nd round picks this year...just saying

 

[jsull87]

There are numerous possibilities here but one thing I havent seen anyone suggest is to package say both our 2s to a team like Carolina for a 1st rounder next year. I think if its a notably bad draft maybe we grab our 2 first rounders and trade out. Truth is with the way we have been picking up players off the street I tend to think the draft is getting a bit over rated...anyone else?

Our 33rd straight up is worth a 1st next year. but yes that is an option if BB wants out of this draft and into next years. Same with our 32nd pick. That is somehting no one is talking about... how funny would it be if we trades our 32nd for someones 1st next year and a 3rd/4th this year and same with our 33rd... we'd have 3 picks in the 1st next year hahah yet still be picking 17, late 2nd and have 4 picks in the 3rd pretty funny situation what ever we do

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Our 33rd straight up is worth a 1st next year. but yes that is an option if BB wants out of this draft and into next years. Same with our 32nd pick. That is somehting no one is talking about... how funny would it be if we trades our 32nd for someones 1st next year and a 3rd/4th this year and same with our 33rd... we'd have 3 picks in the 1st next year hahah yet still be picking 17, late 2nd and have 4 picks in the 3rd pretty funny situation what ever we do

I was thinking more like trading 17 for 20something and 2012 2nd. Then trade either 32 or 33 for a 2012 1st and a 2011 3rd. We'd then trade one of our thirds for a 2012 2nd.

The first 3 rounds would look something like:
20something
32 or 33
late second
two thirds

Plus an extra 1st and two 2nds next year.

That would be sick.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Would it shock anybody if BB traded the #33 pick and a third rounder to move UP into the 20's?

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Would it shock anybody if BB traded the #33 pick and a third rounder to move UP into the 20's?

If there is a pair of players that BB truly covets, I could see him doing it in a "weak draft".

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Everyone though last year St. Louis would make some killer trade after having a whole night to wheel and deal the 33rd and it didn't happen.

To give the Rams some credit, they knew that they had to protect their franchise QB so he didn't Plunkett-ized ( for those of us old enough to remember that) and they got their LT for the present and future in Rodger Saffold and he has turned out to be more than they could have expected...
Not trading the pick , for them was the right decision...

 

[mgteich]

We could use a 3rd, a 4th or the pick we get for moving down from 17. But no, I wouldn't suprised to see us move into the 1st from 33. We end up with a player for an extra year.

Would it shock anybody if BB traded the #33 pick and a third rounder to move UP into the 20's?

 

[Sciz]

If Bill truly is looking for a DE or OLB, then the best place to trade up is to about 20 or so. Assuming the Patriots don't lose their first playoff game, they'd jump ahead of teams like the Chiefs, Jets, and Ravens for those 3-4 players.

 

[onegr8om]

Would it shock anybody if BB traded the #33 pick and a third rounder to move UP into the 20's?

I wouldn't be "shocked" by it, per se, but it would definitely surprise me for sure. That would be a nice surprise too. IF Belichick chooses to do this then it would obviously be for someone he has targeted and wants. I think it would raise a LOT of excitement too, adding whomever we select at 17, PLUS a targeted player with the trade up to add to this already young and exciting team.

 

[NewFeep]

Like everyone else here I know BB probably "wheels and deals" with 17,32 and 33.

I would love to be shocked and hear, "with the 17th pick the NE Patriots select DE (fill in the appropriate binky name here)"

"With the 32nd pick the NE Patriots select OLB (fill in the appropriate binky name here)"

With the 33rd pick the NE Patriots select OT (fill in the appropriate binky name here)"

This is my pipe dream. I know it will never happen!

I should add...... I also would love to see Ochmed Jones scenario with a major move up. That would be exciting!

 

[fluoropolymer]

All of these comments are fun, but I can't wait for the "talking heads" to enter the party. Kiper and McShay are going to go nuts because they realize that the Pats have the fire power to essentially control the draft (and totally screw up their mock drafts). The pats can trade up to "get their guy"; mix and match to go anywhere; trade back -either this year or stockpile picks for next year. Imagine 9 picks in the first 3 rounds this year, converted into multiple picks in the first couple of rounds next year while still getting three or four of the premier prospects this year. It just isn't fair to the rest of the league, and I LOVE IT!! Go Pats.

 

[furley]

I should hope that New England won't trade away the thirty-third pick. A lot of bargain players have been had in the early second round in recent years. Actually, Patrick Chung was selected thirty-fourth with Kansas City's pick in 2009.

Look at recent years, the top of the second round, thirty-three to forty, has produced some good defensive players.


2010 - Nate Allen (37th) and TJ Ward (38th)
2009 - Louis Delmas (33rd) and James Laurinaitis (35th)
2008 - Brandon Flowers (35th) and Curtis Lofton (37th)
2007 - Paul Posluszny (34th), Eric Weddle (37th) and Zach Miller (38th)
2006 - DeMeco Ryans (33rd), D'Qwell Jackson (34th) and Thomas Howard (38th)
2005 - Barrett Ruud (36th)
2004 - Karlos Dansby (33rd) and Chris Snee (34th)
2003 - Charles Tillman (35th)


Depending on whether or not there will be changes in rookie salaries in the new CBA. It wold seem unlikely that Belichick will keep all of New England's picks in the first two rounds. One possibility is to package Oakland's first round pick with New England's second round pick in exchange for another early second round pick and filler or for future picks.

Personally, I stand pat with New England's first round pick and with the second round pick from Carolina.