2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

[VJCPatriot]

With just one game to go in the 2010 season, the New England Patriots, currently the #1 offense in the entire NFL, have already amassed 480 points. By scoring just 20 more points in week 17 (12 below their season average), they will become only the 12th NFL offense ever to score 500 or more points in a season.

Although the 2010 New England offense is not as prolific as the 2007 offense, you can make the argument that they are more efficient and reliable. The main difference between the 2010 version and the 2007 version is the balance on offense. The running game has been utilized more in the double tight end set. The talented rookie tight ends have contributed greatly as well. But let's breakdown the stats instead of just making broader generalizations.

Overall Offense
2007 589 points. 36.8 ppg.
Run ATT 451
Run % 43.5
Run YPC 4.1
Run TDs 17
Total Run Yards 1849
Pass ATT 586
Pass % 56.5
Pass YPA 8.3
Pass TDs 50
Total Pass Yards 4731
QB rating 116.0

2010 480 points through 15 games. 32.0 ppg.
Run ATT 409
Run % 46.1
Run YPC 4.4
Run TDs 18
Total Run Yards 1792
Pass ATT 478
Pass % 53.9
Pass YPA 7.7
Pass TDs 34
Total Pass Yards 3526
QB rating 108.4

Tight End Contribution
2007
9 catches 70 yards 2 TDs
36 catches 389 yards 6 TDs
Totals 45 catches 479 yards 8 TDs
Percentage TE catches 45/403 = 11.2%
Percentage TE yards = 479/4731 = 10.1%
Percentage TE TDs = 10/50 = 20%


2010 through 15 games
5 catches 42 yards 1 TD
36 catches 444 yards 9 TDs
45 catches 563 yards 6 TDs
Totals 86 catches 1049 yards 16 TDs
Percentage TE catches = 86/314 = 27.4%
Percentage TE yards = 1049/3526 = 29.8%
Percentage TE TDs = 16/34 = 47.1%

As you can see the Patriots see a marked increase in the utilization of tight ends and tight end productivity in 2010. This reflects perhaps a shift in offensive philosophy or merely an increase in talent in the position and thus higher utilization of the personnel to maximize the talent there. Take the numbers as you will but the increase in TD percentage from tight ends is particulary eyepopping to me, jumping from 20% to 47% which accounts for nearly half of the team's touchdowns in 2010.

The main common factor with these two offenses is that Brady is the trigger man for both offenses and he is amazingly efficient in both seasons. The 2007 offense is more explosive through the air but averages less yardage on the ground and runs a lower percentage of running plays. The increased utilization of TEs and increased offensive balance is evident from the numbers. We can revisit the final numbers after the Dolphins game but I don't expect them to change much overall.

Conclusion - the Patriots 2010 offense is extremely efficient, more balanced than 2007, and is quite likely to join the all time great offenses with 500+ points scored in a season. It makes you appreciate all the more the quality of football we are seeing in 2010 and just what a special quarterback we have in Tom Brady.

(Other all-time scoring NFL offenses.)

 

[TriplecHamp]

cool story and all but I could care less honestly. I want to win that game in February this year.

 

[VJCPatriot]

cool story and all but I could care less honestly. I want to win that game in February this year.

I'm glad you liked my writing. I think what I'm driving at is that the Patriots balance and diversity on offense should make them harder to stop. Even if they don't average as many points on offense as in 2007 I think it will be harder to shut them down in 2010. Which makes it more likely that they can sustain the offense in January and February and hopefully bring another Lombardi trophy to New England.

In particular I think the increased utilization of the Tight Ends is a positive indicator for this offense. Our tight ends - Gronkowski and Herndandez pose very difficult matchup problems for defenses to solve. In 2007 it became evident in the playoffs that the empty shotgun while an effective tool could be countered by rush heavy teams. The fact that Brady can throw or handoff effectively out of the double tight end set makes our offense in 2010 that much harder to predict and thus stop.

 

[Brettlax3434]

cool story and all but I could care less honestly. I want to win that game in February this year.

I thought it was a very good read. That’s what patsfans.com is for, to blog our thoughts about the Patriots. Earlier in the year I dismissed someone who compared this offense to the 2007 offense. I was wrong, it’s a legit comparison. This offense methodically kills you, while 2007 was extremely explosive. The offenses are different but like the 2007 offense, this one is very very hard to stop.

 

[TriplecHamp]

I meant no disrespect and yes the running game coupled with the tight end play has produced a more versatile and IMO better offense come playoff time but I have a hard time calling any thing one of the "greatest of all time" until after the superbowl. If a team like Baltimore comes in and shuts us down during the divisional round thats what we will probably be remembered by.

 

[borg]

I'm glad you liked my writing. I think what I'm driving at is that the Patriots balance and diversity on offense should make them harder to stop. Even if they don't average as many points on offense as in 2007 I think it will be harder to shut them down in 2010. Which makes it more likely that they can sustain the offense in January and February and hopefully bring another Lombardi trophy to New England.

In particular I think the increased utilization of the Tight Ends is a positive indicator for this offense. Our tight ends - Gronkowski and Herndandez pose very difficult matchup problems for defenses to solve. In 2007 it became evident in the playoffs that the empty shotgun while an effective tool could be countered by rush heavy teams. The fact that Brady can throw or handoff effectively out of the double tight end set makes our offense in 2010 that much harder to predict and thus stop.

18 out of 19 teams couldn't stop the 2007 Pats. Two teams have already stopped this years team with 4 to go (hopefully)...so I don't grasp your point about "harder" to stop this year
But seriously, if you look at both years and use the time of possession numbers to get a points scored/minute possession...

2007....ToP=32:31...Pts/game=36.8...Pts/min=1.13
2010....ToP=28:56...Pts/game=32.0...Pts/min=1.10

Give the 2010 offense equal time as the 2007 offense and this years O scores 35.75 pts/game.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Great thread.

This year's offense is more multi-faceted and isn't a one trick pony. The tight ends are a double threat to block or catch, which allows the team to pass against run defenses and run against nickel packages. It also improves the rushing average because we aren't telegraphing pre-snap whether we are running or passing.

Did anyone look up the red zone efficiency numbers? I would imagine that the red zone TD conversion numbers would be interesting, and also maybe 3rd down.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

18 out of 19 teams couldn't stop the 2007 Pats. Two teams have already stopped this years team with 4 to go (hopefully)...so I don't grasp your point about "harder" to stop this year
But seriously, if you look at both years and use the time of possession numbers to get a points scored/minute possession...

2007....ToP=32:31...Pts/game=36.8...Pts/min=1.13
2010....ToP=28:56...Pts/game=32.0...Pts/min=1.10

Give the 2010 offense equal time as the 2007 offense and this years O scores 35.75 pts/game.

Thanks, I was just about to go look that up. This year's offense is really close to the 2007 offense in terms of efficiency, and a big reason for the fewer points is the defense struggled at times to get them the ball back.

I thought defensive/ST TDs might skew the results, but they're quite similar. In 2007, had 2 KO TDs and 6 defensive TDs (3 INT, 3 fumble). In 2010, have 2 KO TDs and 5 defensive TDs (4 INT, 1 fumble).

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Tight End Contribution
2007
9 catches 70 yards 2 TDs
36 catches 389 yards 6 TDs
Totals 45 catches 479 yards 8 TDs
Percentage TE catches 45/403 = 11.2%
Percentage TE yards = 479/4731 = 10.1%
Percentage TE TDs = 10/50 = 20%

2010 through 15 games
5 catches 42 yards 1 TD
36 catches 444 yards 9 TDs
45 catches 563 yards 6 TDs
Totals 86 catches 1049 yards 16 TDs
Percentage TE catches = 86/314 = 27.4%
Percentage TE yards = 1049/3526 = 29.8%
Percentage TE TDs = 16/34 = 47.1%

As you can see the Patriots see a marked increase in the utilization of tight ends and tight end productivity in 2010. This reflects perhaps a shift in offensive philosophy or merely an increase in talent in the position and thus higher utilization of the personnel to maximize the talent there.

One note about the tight ends. The trio we have is very talented, but I want to dismiss the assertions made in past years on this forum that the tight ends weren't getting the ball because they simply weren't very good. Ben Watson, playing on a bad Cleveland team with bad QB's, just put up a 61 catch 700 yard season, by far his best of his career after leaving New England.
Benjamin Watson - Cleveland Browns - Career Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

 

[Deus Irae]

Reading some of the comments here leaves me with the impression that some people don't remember 2007 all that well. The Patriots had 6 receivers with 30 or more catches, including a tight end and a running back. This year's team will finish with only 5 players reaching that level, unless Tate racks up 8 catches against the Dolphins.

Also, when looking at the run, Maroney and Morris both averaged 4.5 ypc, compared to BJGE's 4.4 this season. The the 2010 running game does get the nod with the third down back production, with Woodhead v. Faulk, as Woodhead's averaging 5.6 ypc compared to Faulk's 4.3 ypc.

 

[Deus Irae]

One note about the tight ends. The trio we have is very talented, but I want to dismiss the assertions made in past years on this forum that the tight ends weren't getting the ball because they simply weren't very good. Ben Watson, playing on a bad Cleveland team with bad QB's, just put up a 61 catch 700 yard season, by far his best of his career after leaving New England.
Benjamin Watson - Cleveland Browns - Career Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

Dave Thomas will also be putting together his second consecutive 30+ reception season since leaving the Patriots.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Did anyone look up the red zone efficiency numbers? I would imagine that the red zone TD conversion numbers would be interesting, and also maybe 3rd down.

2007 was #1 or #2 and this year is #3

 

[Kasmir]

Football Outsiders' numbers support the OP assertion of historic team efficiency:

It should be no surprise that the New England Patriots are still far ahead of the rest of the league in this week's DVOA ratings. Sunday's win over Buffalo saw further improvement from the Pats defense, which is now ranked 20th in the league. In addition, the Patriots' weighted DVOA of 48.3% is now the highest of any team ever, passing the 2004 Steelers and 2007 Patriots. Barring some Brian Hoyer-led faceplant against Miami, the Patriots will be the hottest team going into the playoffs since at least 1993, when our play-by-play stats begin. I took out the "Best DVOA Ever" watch this week, since the results are basically the same as last week, but I'll run those tables one last time after Week 17.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 16 DVOA Ratings

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Reading some of the comments here leaves me with the impression that some people don't remember 2007 all that well. The Patriots had 6 receivers with 30 or more catches, including a tight end and a running back. This year's team will finish with only 5 players reaching that level, unless Tate racks up 8 catches against the Dolphins.

Also, when looking at the run, Maroney and Morris both averaged 4.5 ypc, compared to BJGE's 4.4 this season. The the 2010 running game does get the nod with the third down back production, with Woodhead v. Faulk, as Woodhead's averaging 5.6 ypc compared to Faulk's 4.3 ypc.

2007 was a much more explosive team, more of a quick-strike element to it, so they're very different. The offense this year has had the ball less because of the defensive struggles, but they've also benefited from shorter fields from turnovers too. In 2007, we led the league in yards and points. This year, we lead the league in points but aren't even in the top 10 in yards. So they are very different teams. But in terms of results, they've been quite similar.

One other thing I'd point to as favourable for this year's group is they're getting stronger as the season goes on. In 2007, we averaged 41 over the first 10 games, only once finishing under 30 points. But over the last 6 regular season games, they averaged under 30 points, still very good but a significant drop-off.

This year's team averaged around 27 points per game over the first 8 games, but has really kicked it into gear in the second half averaging 37 points the last 7 games. Hopefully that trend continues this week and into the playoffs.

 

[VJCPatriot]

One note about the tight ends. The trio we have is very talented, but I want to dismiss the assertions made in past years on this forum that the tight ends weren't getting the ball because they simply weren't very good. Ben Watson, playing on a bad Cleveland team with bad QB's, just put up a 61 catch 700 yard season, by far his best of his career after leaving New England.
Benjamin Watson - Cleveland Browns - Career Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

The increased productivity of the tight ends in 2010 is by no means an indictment of the ones the Pats fielded in 2007. However the difference in talent and increased utilization is apparent. Ben Watson was not nearly the threat in the endzone that Gronkowski and Hernandez have been. Gronk is also the superior blocker. Meanwhile Hernandez is far more versatile than Watson ever was, the Pats have lined him up all over the field this season to create mismatches.

As for Ben Watson's production in another system and on a bad team, which might arguably inflate his statistic, that really isn't debated here. As a group the Pats 2010 tight ends are far more talented, versatile, and productive than the ones we fielded in 2007. Translating it to the field, this allows the Pats to play two tight end set more often, allowing them to either block and run, play action, or split out on passes all thanks to the versatility and strengths of the TE personnel in 2010.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The increased productivity of the tight ends in 2010 is by no means an indictment of the ones the Pats fielded in 2007. However the difference in talent and increased utilization is apparent. Ben Watson was not nearly the threat in the endzone that Gronkowski and Hernandez have been. Gronk is also the superior blocker. Meanwhile Hernandez is far more versatile than Watson ever was, the Pats have lined him up all over the field this season to create mismatches.

As for Ben Watson's production in another system and on a bad team, which might arguably inflate his statistic, that really isn't debated here. As a group the Pats 2010 tight ends are far more talented, versatile, and productive than the ones we fielded in 2007. Translating it to the field, this allows the Pats to play two tight end set more often, allowing them to either block and run, play action, or split out on passes all thanks to the versatility and strengths of the TE personnel in 2010.

Route running, creating separation and hands. Both Gronk and AH are superior in those skill sets to BW. I speculate that BW played tense here but I could be wrong. Seemed to drop easy passes, etc.

I respect the year BW had in CLE, maybe he was just more comfortable in that offensive system.

 

[borg]

Reading some of the comments here leaves me with the impression that some people don't remember 2007 all that well. The Patriots had 6 receivers with 30 or more catches, including a tight end and a running back. This year's team will finish with only 5 players reaching that level, unless Tate racks up 8 catches against the Dolphins.

Also, when looking at the run, Maroney and Morris both averaged 4.5 ypc, compared to BJGE's 4.4 this season. The the 2010 running game does get the nod with the third down back production, with Woodhead v. Faulk, as Woodhead's averaging 5.6 ypc compared to Faulk's 4.3 ypc.

The 2010 Pats offense will endup with about 80 fewer plays from scrimmage (5.3 fewer/game) which makes sense considering the time of possession is 3:35 mins less than 2007. So maybe a few of these 80 extra plays would get a 6th WR to the 30 catch number you value so much.
Looking at the two teams on a yards/point basis. The '07 team scored 1 point for every 11.16 yds of offense while the '10 team was slighty more efficient scoring 1 point every 11.06 yds.
Using both points/min ( 1.13 vs 1.10) and yds/pt (11.16 vs 11.06)...these two teams are identical

 

[Calciumee]

One note about the tight ends. The trio we have is very talented, but I want to dismiss the assertions made in past years on this forum that the tight ends weren't getting the ball because they simply weren't very good. Ben Watson, playing on a bad Cleveland team with bad QB's, just put up a 61 catch 700 yard season, by far his best of his career after leaving New England.
Benjamin Watson - Cleveland Browns - Career Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

But if your QB doesn't trust you, you aren't going to get alot of the ball!

 

[ausbacker]

Football Outsiders' numbers support the OP assertion of historic team efficiency:


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 16 DVOA Ratings

Not with this defense. That's unpossible!

 

[borg]

The 2010 Pats offense will endup with about 80 fewer plays from scrimmage (5.3 fewer/game) which makes sense considering the time of possession is 3:35 mins less than 2007. So maybe a few of these 80 extra plays would get a 6th WR to the 30 catch number you value so much.
Looking at the two teams on a yards/point basis. The '07 team scored 1 point for every 11.16 yds of offense while the '10 team was slighty more efficient scoring 1 point every 11.06 yds.
Using both points/min ( 1.13 vs 1.10) and yds/pt (11.16 vs 11.06)...these two teams are identical

Strength of schedule
2007 .469
2010 .507