Valero Alamo Bowl - Justin Blackmon Ok St

[wiggins!]

I think I said this last year when watching Okie St light up the scoreboard with Dez Bryant (before he was ruled out!) but I've fallen in love with another Cowboy WR that I'd love to see in a Pats uni - Justin Blackmon.

Guy looks like Bryant and plays like him too which i'm guessing means has some of bryants baggage! Last part was off base i know!

I like this kids size, make up, he makes plays. He's good. Curious to see what his draft projections are once the seasons over.

 

[West Philly Patriot]

I haven't seen that much of him, but the little I saw he seems like a bona fide 1st rounder. He's looks like a man amongst boys out there.

 

[ahmed]

I've read some mocks that had us taking him, so I looked him up and became a fan of his since. I have not seen the bowl game but his season numbers are insane. I was thinking that his build and play reminded me of Larry Fitzgeral.

 

[DW Toys]

I've read some mocks that had us taking him, so I looked him up and became a fan of his since. I have not seen the bowl game but his season numbers are insane. I was thinking that his build and play reminded me of Larry Fitzgeral.

Cousin, I look at it this way.We have many choices and this years draft class seems well honestly...weak. Now you have the CBA looming so that makes personnel direction a little more rushed, or prolonged until a later date or status quo. Who knows? Out of all our Draft choices only 17% will have an impact on the Pats if we look at league average over a three year period or NFL learning curve. Our Draft this year was way over that so kudos on a 58% successful Draft class to the Pats F.O. Some of those will digress or get injured and at the end of three year even if 25% work out it was a spectacular Draft.

It wasn't all Draft this year as part of our success. There were some great FA pick ups and trades like Branch, Crumpler, Woody, Arrington, Warren, White to name a few. Do not fall for this "Draft is the only way" crapola. It is a delicate mixture of vets and young talent. Take those guys away above and where were would we have been this year?.

Brady is now at the pinnacle, but as in Peyton Manning, his skills and perhaps his enthusiasm goes down a little each year in adjusting to rookie WRs to one of maybe being more robotic. Working with new receivers is a challenge for TB. He is more into honing what he has at this time in his career. The time to grow with that shiny new WR is waning. I believe he prefers veterans who can react on an NFL level. TB had four new receivers to break in this year. Gronk and Hernandez worked out. Price is another 3rd round disappointment and Tate has been unreliable. This year TB had dropped passes that were second in the league.

Let's concentrate at WR. Tate has shown me nothing this year as an NFL WR. He's not a #3 WR and maybe a #5 WR. If you are a decent NCAA player and a NFL drafted WR you must have some skills. I don't see that much. Great KO return guy? Yes, but even that has been mediocre the second part of the season. I smell a Bethel Johnson clone and I do not like it. Even Bethel made one or two plays as a WR but not enough to allow him to stay here or in the league. Price is a project at best. OK sometimes a WR has to develop for years to become a threat like a Brandon Lloyd or even Welker. Do we say "Tom, in another three years this kid will be lights out"?

My point is this CBA is a new twist to what is going to happen in 2011. We have many arrows in the quiver for 2011 for a draft class that is maybe as weak as 2006. Certainly last years class was far and above better. You have teams that are struggling to catch up or redefine themselves.Teams will covet higher round picks because the pickings are slimmer. We have the wampum.

Besides that, I am not talking about the Pats going out a scooping every expensive FA that is available or making trades just to make them instead, but there could be more movement in trades this year after the CBA changes the rules or if they do like salary cap and present player movement limitations.

Cousin, you mentioned Larry Fitzgerald. I would offer up a ransom of some of our top picks (not all) because I see a weak draft, to a team like the Cardinals who have many needs, to get Fitzy.

In 2011 we then have the flexibility to open up or play close as in a two or three TE set. LF is four years younger than Branch. He is not selfish. He blocks. He is a great Team player and he has an out to leave AZ who is now is full rebuilding mode. He gives TB the positive things that Moss gave to the Pats but on a consistent Team based (non diva) desire to help the cause. He is your big WR who can jump, can demand double coverage, will go over the middle and has the speed to go deep.

Whether you are honest about this or not, Welker has been affected by the Moss trade. Even if he is 15% less defective, there it is. Branch has made this less of a factor but there is still something missing. Would I have kept Moss? Yes if I knew this was not a locker room issue. Why not Moss and Branch? But having Fitzy who is a Team player, great locker room guy and devoted to the game makes more sense than taking a swing at another WR in the Draft. TB is 34 next year and he would like his weapons battle tested. Welker, Branch and Fitzy as your "NFL ready" fleet of WR is intriguing without the Moss, Brandon Marshall and Edwards distractions.

Branch is also a liability health wise. In 2011 he is older. He can't take the pounding. If he went down during the playoffs it changes this Team. I hope he sits Sunday.

IF the new CBA rules are more player movement friendly, trading Fitzy and using the rest of the Draft to add Defense depth is what I would do. LR has a present CAP cost similar to Moss, we own Branch cheap so devoting money to another WR who is only 27 year old who fits the Pats seems well worth it. Would the Cardinals trade? He does have an out if he so desires after 2011. so why not make an offer to get them started with some high picks this Draft.

To add to this, if a Fitzy trade was not possible, would I add #85 Ocho Cinco to this roster? With no doubt. He will go over the middle, take a hit unlike Branch (who in all fairness is productive but frail) and is funny and not really in a diva way, but yet not as much of a distraction to TB as even Moss was. Why Cinco?;

It's third and ten and we need a catch to continue the drive. Welker is triple teamed and Branch is being molested by a much larger CB. I want Ocho Cinco in the one on one coverage and he still has speed, has decent size, his effort on the field is consistent and he runs.....precise routes (see Tom Brady)...or do you want to see TB trying for Tate to get that first down?

Ocho Cinco has caught 67 to date even though he knew stumping for T.O. to help the Bengals would cut his catches and he is still over 12 YPC. So he gave up his stats to help the Team. I also think BB likes the kid. How do you think Ocho Cinco would react to helping the Pats for another SB run in 2011? He loves the game. How important is that to TB and BB?

Or I would add a Steve Smith who is a playmaker as well.

DW Toys

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

He's listed at 207 but I'd guess he weighs more now. To me he plays more like Anquan Boldin but without the polish.

I'm looking at a few lesser known guys such as Torrey Smith, Jermaine Kearse, and Kris Adams. These guys can run and shouldn't need jump balls every game.

 

[jsull87]

Cousin, I look at it this way.We have many choices and this years draft class seems well honestly...weak. Now you have the CBA looming so that makes personnel direction a little more rushed, or prolonged until a later date or status quo. Who knows? Out of all our Draft choices only 17% will have an impact on the Pats if we look at league average over a three year period or NFL learning curve. Our Draft this year was way over that so kudos on a 58% successful Draft class to the Pats F.O. Some of those will digress or get injured and at the end of three year even if 25% work out it was a spectacular Draft.

It wasn't all Draft this year as part of our success. There were some great FA pick ups and trades like Branch, Crumpler, Woody, Arrington, Warren, White to name a few. Do not fall for this "Draft is the only way" crapola. It is a delicate mixture of vets and young talent. Take those guys away above and where were would we have been this year?.

Brady is now at the pinnacle, but as in Peyton Manning, his skills and perhaps his enthusiasm goes down a little each year in adjusting to rookie WRs to one of maybe being more robotic. Working with new receivers is a challenge for TB. He is more into honing what he has at this time in his career. The time to grow with that shiny new WR is waning. I believe he prefers veterans who can react on an NFL level. TB had four new receivers to break in this year. Gronk and Hernandez worked out. Price is another 3rd round disappointment and Tate has been unreliable. This year TB had dropped passes that were second in the league.

Let's concentrate at WR. Tate has shown me nothing this year as an NFL WR. He's not a #3 WR and maybe a #5 WR. If you are a decent NCAA player and a NFL drafted WR you must have some skills. I don't see that much. Great KO return guy? Yes, but even that has been mediocre the second part of the season. I smell a Bethel Johnson clone and I do not like it. Even Bethel made one or two plays as a WR but not enough to allow him to stay here or in the league. Price is a project at best. OK sometimes a WR has to develop for years to become a threat like a Brandon Lloyd or even Welker. Do we say "Tom, in another three years this kid will be lights out"?

My point is this CBA is a new twist to what is going to happen in 2011. We have many arrows in the quiver for 2011 for a draft class that is maybe as weak as 2006. Certainly last years class was far and above better. You have teams that are struggling to catch up or redefine themselves.Teams will covet higher round picks because the pickings are slimmer. We have the wampum.

Besides that, I am not talking about the Pats going out a scooping every expensive FA that is available or making trades just to make them instead, but there could be more movement in trades this year after the CBA changes the rules or if they do like salary cap and present player movement limitations.

Cousin, you mentioned Larry Fitzgerald. I would offer up a ransom of some of our top picks (not all) because I see a weak draft, to a team like the Cardinals who have many needs, to get Fitzy.

In 2011 we then have the flexibility to open up or play close as in a two or three TE set. LF is four years younger than Branch. He is not selfish. He blocks. He is a great Team player and he has an out to leave AZ who is now is full rebuilding mode. He gives TB the positive things that Moss gave to the Pats but on a consistent Team based (non diva) desire to help the cause. He is your big WR who can jump, can demand double coverage, will go over the middle and has the speed to go deep.

Whether you are honest about this or not, Welker has been affected by the Moss trade. Even if he is 15% less defective, there it is. Branch has made this less of a factor but there is still something missing. Would I have kept Moss? Yes if I knew this was not a locker room issue. Why not Moss and Branch? But having Fitzy who is a Team player, great locker room guy and devoted to the game makes more sense than taking a swing at another WR in the Draft. TB is 34 next year and he would like his weapons battle tested. Welker, Branch and Fitzy as your "NFL ready" fleet of WR is intriguing without the Moss, Brandon Marshall and Edwards distractions.

Branch is also a liability health wise. In 2011 he is older. He can't take the pounding. If he went down during the playoffs it changes this Team. I hope he sits Sunday.

IF the new CBA rules are more player movement friendly, trading Fitzy and using the rest of the Draft to add Defense depth is what I would do. LR has a present CAP cost similar to Moss, we own Branch cheap so devoting money to another WR who is only 27 year old who fits the Pats seems well worth it. Would the Cardinals trade? He does have an out if he so desires after 2011. so why not make an offer to get them started with some high picks this Draft.

To add to this, if a Fitzy trade was not possible, would I add #85 Ocho Cinco to this roster? With no doubt. He will go over the middle, take a hit unlike Branch (who in all fairness is productive but frail) and is funny and not really in a diva way, but yet not as much of a distraction to TB as even Moss was. Why Cinco?;

It's third and ten and we need a catch to continue the drive. Welker is triple teamed and Branch is being molested by a much larger CB. I want Ocho Cinco in the one on one coverage and he still has speed, has decent size, his effort on the field is consistent and he runs.....precise routes (see Tom Brady)...or do you want to see TB trying for Tate to get that first down?

Ocho Cinco has caught 67 to date even though he knew stumping for T.O. to help the Bengals would cut his catches and he is still over 12 YPC. So he gave up his stats to help the Team. I also think BB likes the kid. How do you think Ocho Cinco would react to helping the Pats for another SB run in 2011? He loves the game. How important is that to TB and BB?

Or I would add a Steve Smith who is a playmaker as well.

DW Toys

don't you think your being a little quick to judge our young recievers... tate is basically a rookie, price has said that this is basically his red shirt year as he was coming from an offense that wasn't to hard in college.

That being said yes i agree with your sentiment if we are to add 1 wide reciever fitzgerald, smith and Ocho would be great in that order. Ocho is great but can you honestly say he won't be a distraction? BB has spent all offseason getting rid of distractions

 

[patchick]

don't you think your being a little quick to judge our young recievers... tate is basically a rookie, price has said that this is basically his red shirt year as he was coming from an offense that wasn't to hard in college.

That being said yes i agree with your sentiment if we are to add 1 wide reciever fitzgerald, smith and Ocho would be great in that order. Ocho is great but can you honestly say he won't be a distraction? BB has spent all offseason getting rid of distractions

In case you've missed it in the past, Mr. Toys feels the draft is too risky. So makes it his annual mission for the Pats to trade away their top picks for the chance to sign veterans to big-$$ contracts. Last year's particular dream was #22 for Ray Edwards, but here's a thread where he suggested trading all 4 high picks for vets:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...raded-proven-young-nfl-players-would-you.html

 

[D-Money]

I am not trading picks for older guys even if they are proven.

 

[doesntmatter1]

Wow, if dw had his way we wouldnt have the shut down mccourty or our beastly tight ends. Im not trying to be mean but you gotta stop thinking about the draft in such ***** way. Trading away all of our top picks for fitzgerald might stop us from finding another mccourty. And i value mccourty alot more than fitzgerald to this team, hell we are scoring about 30 points a game as it is. With all of the picks we have i would love to give blackmon a shot or throw a few picks at rb with high potential. I want a game changer like desean jackson, adrian peterson, or chris johnson. At least one, damn.

 

[BelichickFan]

Blackmon isn't a lock to come out but if he does I think he will be the #2 WR behind Green and ahead of Jones. I worry about him a little, the DUI is bad but the fact that he was stopped going 90 MPH during the DUI stop is worse. There's DUI and there's D-U-I and he was the latter. I also didn't care for his DeSean Jackson-esque running across the front of the end zone yesterday but I realize he's a college kid having fun. He comes with concerns to me, however he is supposed to be a pretty good kid and he sure is a stud WR.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Cousin, I look at it this way.We have many choices and this years draft class seems well honestly...weak. Now you have the CBA looming so that makes personnel direction a little more rushed, or prolonged until a later date or status quo. Who knows? Out of all our Draft choices only 17% will have an impact on the Pats if we look at league average over a three year period or NFL learning curve. Our Draft this year was way over that so kudos on a 58% successful Draft class to the Pats F.O. Some of those will digress or get injured and at the end of three year even if 25% work out it was a spectacular Draft.

It wasn't all Draft this year as part of our success. There were some great FA pick ups and trades like Branch, Crumpler, Woody, Arrington, Warren, White to name a few. Do not fall for this "Draft is the only way" crapola. It is a delicate mixture of vets and young talent. Take those guys away above and where were would we have been this year?.

Brady is now at the pinnacle, but as in Peyton Manning, his skills and perhaps his enthusiasm goes down a little each year in adjusting to rookie WRs to one of maybe being more robotic. Working with new receivers is a challenge for TB. He is more into honing what he has at this time in his career. The time to grow with that shiny new WR is waning. I believe he prefers veterans who can react on an NFL level. TB had four new receivers to break in this year. Gronk and Hernandez worked out. Price is another 3rd round disappointment and Tate has been unreliable. This year TB had dropped passes that were second in the league.

Let's concentrate at WR. Tate has shown me nothing this year as an NFL WR. He's not a #3 WR and maybe a #5 WR. If you are a decent NCAA player and a NFL drafted WR you must have some skills. I don't see that much. Great KO return guy? Yes, but even that has been mediocre the second part of the season. I smell a Bethel Johnson clone and I do not like it. Even Bethel made one or two plays as a WR but not enough to allow him to stay here or in the league. Price is a project at best. OK sometimes a WR has to develop for years to become a threat like a Brandon Lloyd or even Welker. Do we say "Tom, in another three years this kid will be lights out"?

My point is this CBA is a new twist to what is going to happen in 2011. We have many arrows in the quiver for 2011 for a draft class that is maybe as weak as 2006. Certainly last years class was far and above better. You have teams that are struggling to catch up or redefine themselves.Teams will covet higher round picks because the pickings are slimmer. We have the wampum.

Besides that, I am not talking about the Pats going out a scooping every expensive FA that is available or making trades just to make them instead, but there could be more movement in trades this year after the CBA changes the rules or if they do like salary cap and present player movement limitations.

Cousin, you mentioned Larry Fitzgerald. I would offer up a ransom of some of our top picks (not all) because I see a weak draft, to a team like the Cardinals who have many needs, to get Fitzy.

In 2011 we then have the flexibility to open up or play close as in a two or three TE set. LF is four years younger than Branch. He is not selfish. He blocks. He is a great Team player and he has an out to leave AZ who is now is full rebuilding mode. He gives TB the positive things that Moss gave to the Pats but on a consistent Team based (non diva) desire to help the cause. He is your big WR who can jump, can demand double coverage, will go over the middle and has the speed to go deep.

Whether you are honest about this or not, Welker has been affected by the Moss trade. Even if he is 15% less defective, there it is. Branch has made this less of a factor but there is still something missing. Would I have kept Moss? Yes if I knew this was not a locker room issue. Why not Moss and Branch? But having Fitzy who is a Team player, great locker room guy and devoted to the game makes more sense than taking a swing at another WR in the Draft. TB is 34 next year and he would like his weapons battle tested. Welker, Branch and Fitzy as your "NFL ready" fleet of WR is intriguing without the Moss, Brandon Marshall and Edwards distractions.

Branch is also a liability health wise. In 2011 he is older. He can't take the pounding. If he went down during the playoffs it changes this Team. I hope he sits Sunday.

IF the new CBA rules are more player movement friendly, trading Fitzy and using the rest of the Draft to add Defense depth is what I would do. LR has a present CAP cost similar to Moss, we own Branch cheap so devoting money to another WR who is only 27 year old who fits the Pats seems well worth it. Would the Cardinals trade? He does have an out if he so desires after 2011. so why not make an offer to get them started with some high picks this Draft.

To add to this, if a Fitzy trade was not possible, would I add #85 Ocho Cinco to this roster? With no doubt. He will go over the middle, take a hit unlike Branch (who in all fairness is productive but frail) and is funny and not really in a diva way, but yet not as much of a distraction to TB as even Moss was. Why Cinco?;

It's third and ten and we need a catch to continue the drive. Welker is triple teamed and Branch is being molested by a much larger CB. I want Ocho Cinco in the one on one coverage and he still has speed, has decent size, his effort on the field is consistent and he runs.....precise routes (see Tom Brady)...or do you want to see TB trying for Tate to get that first down?

Ocho Cinco has caught 67 to date even though he knew stumping for T.O. to help the Bengals would cut his catches and he is still over 12 YPC. So he gave up his stats to help the Team. I also think BB likes the kid. How do you think Ocho Cinco would react to helping the Pats for another SB run in 2011? He loves the game. How important is that to TB and BB?

Or I would add a Steve Smith who is a playmaker as well.

DW Toys

I think you're overly harsh on Tate and Price. It's still too early to know what we have here. This is basically Tate's rookie season, while Price is being red-shirted.

In basically his rookie season, Tate has 22 catches, 350 yards, 2 TDs, and averages 15.9 yards per catch.

You're big on Ochocinco and Steve Smith, but here's what they did in their rookie seasons:

Ochocinco
28 catches, 329 yards, 1 TD, 11.8 average

Smith
10 catches, 154 yards, 0 TD, 15.4 average

Both those guys were also drafted ahead of Tate. So let's not jump to conclusions so quickly on Tate or Price.

I also wonder how you plan on paying for one of these acquisitions. The 2009 cap was just under $128 million. There's no cap this season, but the Pats would be at $132 to $135 million according to Miguel. The owners are pushing to reduce the cap. So somehow we'll have to cut payroll by at least $4 to $7 million, if not more.

So even though Fitzgerald has a similar cap figure to Moss (both Fitzgerald and Smith are on the books for $7 million in 2011, while Ochocinco will be $6 million, though that's a club option), any of those 3 guys would become the second-highest paid Patriot behind Tom Brady, and added at a time when we need to shed some payroll while also (hopefully) signing Mankins to a long-term extension.

I'm not opposed to adding Larry Fitzgerald. But I'd rather have Mankins. And it'll be hard to afford one, let alone both.

 

[DW Toys]

In case you've missed it in the past, Mr. Toys feels the draft is too risky. So makes it his annual mission for the Pats to trade away their top picks for the chance to sign veterans to big-$$ contracts. Last year's particular dream was #22 for Ray Edwards, but here's a thread where he suggested trading all 4 high picks for vets:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...raded-proven-young-nfl-players-would-you.html

Cousin, Mr. Toys is adamant about a proper mix. Please let's face facts. The NFL Draft is a crap shoot at best. .....17% success rate on league average. Why is it we hit on a year or two and no one remembers 2006 and 2007? Amazing!!!Trade away every draft choice? Not really. Trade for young veteran talent to supplement our choices? Absolutely. No question. It would be folly to disagree.
Lets us look at last years little question I proposed last year as simply a "Would you?":


DE/OLB Ray Edwards. -Would have led our Pats in sacks and have more tackles than any of our DEs and he missed three games and is still only 26

WR Steve Smith. -A wash with Branch, but prior to the Moss issue the piece BB was seeking as a replacement if he gave up on Moss. His numbers are similar to Branch with perhaps the worst QB core in the NFL........ And younger than Branch

LB Chris Gocong -Very solid. Would be only behind Mayo in tackles at ILB and only 27

26 year old Greg Olsen. We guessed right on Gronkowski although Olsen is very productive as well in a Martz system that does not use the TE. I like the bigger Gronk but he did have injury issues coming out. It worked out but Olsen was not a bad consolation prize.

#87 Adam Carriker DE-Would be leading our D line in tackles and he is only 27. We are dragging DEs off the street.

OK. Tell me that what I had offered was that bad? Would these guys have helped? How many would have bet the farm that McCorty would make the Pro Bowl? Even a blind squirrel can find a nut and he has a 17% chance to do so.

I am not proposing a Ricky Williams scenario. I am saying there is no one in the 2011 NFL Draft that has a better upside than Fitzgerald and how many years will it take to develop them if the are a WR for Brady? I have already heard the rhetoric...."well Tate and Price are still young. Let's not give up on them"> Brady is not 29 Years old anymore. What do you not get here?

I say I will take a high pick or two and go after Fitzgerald if I had the opportunity over any player in this Draft (not every high pick please). He is NFL ready and can help the Team as an upgrade even over this years roster in 2011. How many will disagree with this theory?

How many were sure that BB should Draft McCorty, He would start and he would become a Pro Bowler in year one? Has this happened in every Patriot draft class?.....NO! I am glad he worked out and happy he is a Pat but what I proposed last year was really not that bad and perhaps in time, even better. No one knows.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

I think you're overly harsh on Tate and Price. It's still too early to know what we have here. This is basically Tate's rookie season, while Price is being red-shirted.

In basically his rookie season, Tate has 22 catches, 350 yards, 2 TDs, and averages 15.9 yards per catch.

You're big on Ochocinco and Steve Smith, but here's what they did in their rookie seasons:

Ochocinco
28 catches, 329 yards, 1 TD, 11.8 average

Smith
10 catches, 154 yards, 0 TD, 15.4 average

Both those guys were also drafted ahead of Tate. So let's not jump to conclusions so quickly on Tate or Price.

I also wonder how you plan on paying for one of these acquisitions. The 2009 cap was just under $128 million. There's no cap this season, but the Pats would be at $132 to $135 million according to Miguel. The owners are pushing to reduce the cap. So somehow we'll have to cut payroll by at least $4 to $7 million, if not more.

So even though Fitzgerald has a similar cap figure to Moss (both Fitzgerald and Smith are on the books for $7 million in 2011, while Ochocinco will be $6 million, though that's a club option), any of those 3 guys would become the second-highest paid Patriot behind Tom Brady, and added at a time when we need to shed some payroll while also (hopefully) signing Mankins to a long-term extension.

I'm not opposed to adding Larry Fitzgerald. But I'd rather have Mankins. And it'll be hard to afford one, let alone both.

Would you trade either Price or Tate even up for Smith or even Ochocinco? Of course you would. I understand the upside of age. I get it. But are these kids play makers or yet another Bethel Johnson? I take the sure thing. As we all know Tate is apt to screwing up again. Only a moron smokes herbius weedius before his NFL combine. He has not shown he can be an NFL WR to me. This is not Mensa material either. I think Mankins can still be gone although I'd love to keep him.

Fitzgerald the second highest paid Pat? That sounds reasonable to me. Do you pay Mankins the same money as a guard than arguably one of the top three receivers in the NFL who is still young and a solid Team player? So let's see..Mankins as the second highest paid Patriot or Fitzgerald? I say Mankins can be replaced easier than a potential hall of Fame WR who now has Brady to throw to him.


DW Toys

 

[patchick]

Lets us look at last years little question I proposed last year as simply a "Would you?"

OK, I'll take a stab at it. Here are the problems with the "little question""

1. Those trades are imaginary. Draft picks are real.
It's total conjecture that the trades you suggested were even possible. E.g., despite outside conjecture, the Bears were clear that they intended to keep Olsen and that's just what they did.

2. While assailing the risk of draft picks, you assume that FAs have no risk and will produce exactly the same in a new system.
E.g. you state that Edwards, a career-long 4-3 DE, "would have led the Pats in sacks." Meanwhile experience with Burgess, Thomas et al tells us that plugging in a big-name outside player as a Pats OLB is risky business indeed.

3. You ignore contracts.
This is the biggest one. To land Edwards, you would have either been picking up a 1-year rental for your 1st-round pick, or committing to a blockbuster long-term deal for a guy who had never played a snap in anything resembling the Patriots defense. Instead, the Patriots committed their long-term $$ to Vince Wilfork. Would you have preferred the reverse?

Or consider Steve Smith, who IS under contract -- he'll get $14.75 million over the next 2 years, as a 32/33 year old receiver. That's more than all of the players the Pats drafted with their top 4 picks put together...all 6 of them.

Yep, the Patriots got McCourty, Gronkowski, Cunningham, Spikes, Price and Hernandez with those 4 picks, and the group of them will early significantly less than Steve Smith, let alone a new deal for Edwards. So how the heck are you going to put together the rest of your roster now that you have no cheap youth and 4 players (if you keep Wilfork) earning over $7 million a piece? Say goodbye to your offensive line, to start with.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

OK, I'll take a stab at it. Here are the problems with the "little question""

1. Those trades are imaginary. Draft picks are real.
It's total conjecture that the trades you suggested were even possible. E.g., despite outside conjecture, the Bears were clear that they intended to keep Olsen and that's just what they did.

2. While assailing the risk of draft picks, you assume that FAs have no risk and will produce exactly the same in a new system.
E.g. you state that Edwards, a career-long 4-3 DE, "would have led the Pats in sacks." Meanwhile experience with Burgess, Thomas et al tells us that plugging in a big-name outside player as a Pats OLB is risky business indeed.

3. You ignore contracts.
This is the biggest one. To land Edwards, you would have either been picking up a 1-year rental for your 1st-round pick, or committing to a blockbuster long-term deal for a guy who had never played a snap in anything resembling the Patriots defense. Instead, the Patriots committed their long-term $$ to Vince Wilfork. Would you have preferred the reverse?

Or consider Steve Smith, who IS under contract -- he'll get $14.75 million over the next 2 years, as a 32/33 year old receiver. That's more than all of the players the Pats drafted with their top 4 picks put together...all 6 of them.

Yep, the Patriots got McCourty, Gronkowski, Cunningham, Spikes, Price and Hernandez with those 4 picks, and the group of them will early significantly less than Steve Smith, let alone a new deal for Edwards. So how the heck are you going to put together the rest of your roster now that you have no cheap youth and 4 players (if you keep Wilfork) earning over $7 million a piece? Say goodbye to your offensive line, to start with.

Easy "cousin" patchick, "cousin" Toys is probably still hungover from celebrating James Sanders' season. :amusic:

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That's more than all of the players the Pats drafted with their top 4 picks put together...all 6 of them.

Yep, the Patriots got McCourty, Gronkowski, Cunningham, Spikes, Price and Hernandez with those 4 picks,

7+. Let's not forget the Pats also got the Carolina gift from the proceeds of those picks.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Would you trade either Price or Tate even up for Smith or even Ochocinco? Of course you would. I understand the upside of age. I get it. But are these kids play makers or yet another Bethel Johnson? I take the sure thing. As we all know Tate is apt to screwing up again. Only a moron smokes herbius weedius before his NFL combine. He has not shown he can be an NFL WR to me. This is not Mensa material either. I think Mankins can still be gone although I'd love to keep him.

Fitzgerald the second highest paid Pat? That sounds reasonable to me. Do you pay Mankins the same money as a guard than arguably one of the top three receivers in the NFL who is still young and a solid Team player? So let's see..Mankins as the second highest paid Patriot or Fitzgerald? I say Mankins can be replaced easier than a potential hall of Fame WR who now has Brady to throw to him.


DW Toys

I'm not as high on Ochocinco or Smith, as their best days seem behind them, so you're paying top dollar for declining guys. That's a Dan Snyder type of move. And I love Fitzgerald, but he doesn't fit what we're doing, and we'd let his greatest strengths (in the deep passing game) go to waste.

$7 million is a lot when you think about it. By comparison, we'll be paying Wes Welker and Deion Branch less than $5 million combined next season. Fitzgerald would be triple the cost of one of them, and we're not going to get anywhere near an appropriate increase in production to justify that cost, so what's the point?

I like Mankins. He's stabilized the line, and it seems Koppen is playing a LOT better with Mankins back next to him, so he's improved the overall line play. And he protects our most valuable asset, Brady. I think the upgrade from him to Connolly or Wendell is more significant than say the upgrade from Fitzgerald to Deion.

I also don't think you appreciate how valuable a draft pick is. I know they're free in the sense that we get 7 every year, but you keep pointing to the low hit rate. But what you don't seem to understand is that, so long as you stay out of the top 10, they're low-risk, high-reward deals. When you miss, it doesn't destroy your cap so long as you're not in the top 10. But when you hit, it's a huge hit.

A guy like McCourty gives you 5 years at $10 million total. That's a huge boost to the team. The value gained from that one pick significantly outweighs all the other misses, and significantly outweighs even a much higher hit rate in free agency or trades.

While discussing receivers, I'm not convinced Brandon Tate is the answer either. But it'd be better to try and draft a starter instead of trading for Fitzgerald. Using your 17% success rate, that should be 1 in 6 making it. Lets say we drafted 6 guys like Tate, and only 1 made it. He's signed for 4 years, $2.5 million total. If we kept all 6 guys on the roster, that'd still be barely over half of what Fitzgerald would make in one year. We could burn 11 picks at that rate and still not come to Fitzgerald's annual salary.

Draft picks are low-risk, high-reward. Big name FA and trades are high-risk, low-reward. They're like buying a stock at it's peak.

FA and trades may be more effective at filling roster spots. You could say sign 10 free agents and 5 or 6 make the team, while you draft 10 guys and only 2 make it. But FA and trades rarely provide the value that the draft can.

 

[patchick]

7+. Let's not forget the Pats also got the Carolina gift from the proceeds of those picks.

Whoops, how could I forget the magical self-perpetuating #89? You trade it for 2nd rounder, which you then trade for a lower 2nd and...#89. Which you trade for a 2nd rounder, which...

When you think about it, the potential total picks are infinite.

 

[BritPat]

As always, DW talks the talk, but as so often, is left wanting when it comes to walking the walk.

He wants us to become the Redskins MK II. And I love how scouting a player for hours, watching hours and hours of film on him, comparing his strengths and weaknesses to what he'd be asked to do for us, digging deep into everything about him, and then eventually Drafting him is deemed as "guesswork".

Yikes.