Brady's historic run

[Uncle Rico]

We all know Tom Brady is about winning and rings, and couldn't care less about statistics beyond how they help him get to the title.

At the same time, The Man has put up some amazing numbers the past three seasons he's actually played (one quarter in KC doesn't count). They help tell a part of the story of his greatness.

Just so folks can put what we're all seeing in perspective, I compiled Brady's 07-09-10 numbers and compared them to the best three-year stretch of the most productive QBs of the past 25 years or so (obviously '10 stats are incomplete):

Tom Brady (2007, 2009, 2010)
Yards: 12,905 / TDs: 112 / INTs: 25

Peyton Manning (2008-2010)
Yards: 12,938 / TDs: 108 / INTs: 45

Peyton Manning (2003-05)
Yards: 13,024 / TDs: 106 / INTs: 30

Drew Brees (2008-10)
Yards: 13,881 / TDs: 100 / INTs: 49

Brett Favre (1996-98)
Yards: 12,179 / TDs: 112 / INTs: 42

Dan Marino (1984-1986)
Yards: 13,967 / TDs: 122 / INTs: 61 (!)

As you see, he's right up there with the best in yards, and in a league of his own in TD:INT ratio.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

That's pretty phenomenal. And those numbers were done in the cold, wind and snowy outdoors for the most part.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Brady is going to win the MVP this year.
Especially after Vick laid that egg last Tuesday, there is no longer any justification to vote for Vick.

 

[RobertWeathers]

We all know Tom Brady is about winning and rings, and couldn't care less about statistics beyond how they help him get to the title.

At the same time, The Man has put up some amazing numbers the past three seasons he's actually played (one quarter in KC doesn't count). They help tell a part of the story of his greatness.

Just so folks can put what we're all seeing in perspective, I compiled Brady's 07-09-10 numbers and compared them to the best three-year stretch of the most productive QBs of the past 25 years or so (obviously '10 stats are incomplete):

Tom Brady (2007, 2009, 2010)
Yards: 12,905 / TDs: 112 / INTs: 25

Peyton Manning (2008-2010)
Yards: 12,938 / TDs: 108 / INTs: 45

Peyton Manning (2003-05)
Yards: 13,024 / TDs: 106 / INTs: 30

Drew Brees (2008-10)
Yards: 13,881 / TDs: 100 / INTs: 49

Brett Favre (1996-98)
Yards: 12,179 / TDs: 112 / INTs: 42

Dan Marino (1984-1986)
Yards: 13,967 / TDs: 122 / INTs: 61 (!)

As you see, he's right up there with the best in yards, and in a league of his own in TD:INT ratio.

Over those samples, Marino averaged an INT every 28 pass attempts.

Brady averaged 64.

Sick.

 

[brdmaverick]

Brady's last INT

Much has been made about Brady's record setting INT-less streak. What's even more impressive is that his last pick was actually a hail mary attempt into the end zone at the end of regulation of the Baltimore game. Granted, he had one earlier in the game, but that really only 3 legit interceptions all year.

 

[RodThePat]

Re: Brady's last INT

Much has been made about Brady's record setting INT-less streak. What's even more impressive is that his last pick was actually a hail mary attempt into the end zone at the end of regulation of the Baltimore game. Granted, he had one earlier in the game, but that really only 3 legit interceptions all year.

Yeah, but there were 3 times in which defenders dropped balls that hit them square in the hands, so you gotta take the bad luck with the good.

 

[Sciz]

Re: Brady's last INT

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FO Mailbag: Dropped Interceptions

Adjusted INT = INT - Tipped INTs - Hail Mary INTs + Dropped INTs

He still has easily the best INT%. And Mark Sanchez is one lucky SoB. Defenders have only caught half of the picks he's thrown :lol2:

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Re: Brady's last INT

Yeah, but there were 3 times in which defenders dropped balls that hit them square in the hands, so you gotta take the bad luck with the good

Thats probably true for every QB, he has had a streak of good luck lately but he doesnt put the ball where it can be picked too often.

 

[Dufflebagz]

Re: Brady's last INT

Much has been made about Brady's record setting INT-less streak. What's even more impressive is that his last pick was actually a hail mary attempt into the end zone at the end of regulation of the Baltimore game. Granted, he had one earlier in the game, but that really only 3 legit interceptions all year.

That's part of the game. Its still a "legit" INT.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Re: Brady's last INT

Yeah, but there were 3 times in which defenders dropped balls that hit them square in the hands, so you gotta take the bad luck with the good.

I'm not sure about square in the hands. Maybe one or two, but I think a few of those were more difficult than they first looked. Like the Urlacher one - looked like a bad drop from the live camera up high, but the field-level replay showed a guy fully extended, pretty much on his toes just getting his fingers on the ball.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: Brady's last INT

I'm not sure about square in the hands. Maybe one or two, but I think a few of those were more difficult than they first looked. Like the Urlacher one - looked like a bad drop from the live camera up high, but the field-level replay showed a guy fully extended, pretty much on his toes just getting his fingers on the ball.

Yeah, tougher catch than it appeared. Still, the bottom line is that any ball tipped between the numbers in the NFL is a pick waiting to happen.

I think the streak is probably indicative of exactly what it suggests. I think picks when trying to win a game with a long pass should count.

 

[BradyBranch39]

Re: Brady's last INT

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FO Mailbag: Dropped Interceptions

Adjusted INT = INT - Tipped INTs - Hail Mary INTs + Dropped INTs

He still has easily the best INT%. And Mark Sanchez is one lucky SoB. Defenders have only caught half of the picks he's thrown :lol2:

Love it. Sorted it by rate in Excel, and TFB is followed by Cassel and Roethlisberger at 1.8%. Matt Moore is last at 6.3, but if I remember, he had a concussion while throwing ~3 of them.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Brady finishes with fifth best passer rating season of all-time

With a quarterback rating of 145 in the season finale, Brady finishes at 111.0. With this final masterpiece (without his two best receivers), he finished fifth all-time in single season passer rating.

The list goes as follows:
Manning (04)
Brady (07)
Young (94)
Montana (89)
Brady (10)

Young's second best season was 15th all-time, while Manning has the 25th.

When you consider the following players from the list, I'd argue that this is the greatest single season in NFL history.

Manning (04)- Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Edgerrin James
Brady (07)- Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth
Young (94)- Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Brent Jones, Ricky Watters
Montana (89)- Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Brent Jones, Roger Craig, Tom Rathman

A note on the '89 Niners. Their offense was so good that Montana put up a QB rating of 112.4. Young started three games and had a passer rating of 120.8.

Obviously, Brady's 2010 squad did not have the firepower, within any stretch of the imagination, of any of the other five teams on here.

 

[DarrylS]

The most impressive Brady stat.. 4 Int.

4 interceptions by Brady for a season is the most impressive stat that he accomplished this year...

That is a 1.2 % intercepted... not sure where that stands all time, but has to be close to the top.

The next closest are Freeman and Rothlisberger who come in at about 2% percent intercepted. Other noticeables include Brees at 4.9% intercepted, and Peyton Manning at 3.7% intercepted..

Last week was listening to Aaron Schatz(sp) of CHFF discussing interceptions and their impact on a game.. he contended:

If the D intercepts the there is a +20% chance that team will win..
Conversely, if the O throws an Int there is a -20% that the team will loose..

 

[ausbacker]

Re: Brady finishes with fifth best passer rating season of all-time

I'll wager that if their scope for improvement continues you'll see just how good the tools Tom Brady had to work with in 2010 will become.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Re: Brady finishes with fifth best passer rating season of all-time

I do agree with this. While it will be hard to argue these guys were as good now as some of those other players were then, there is still a perception that these "rookie tight ends" are made by Brady. Gronkowski might already be a top-five tight end, and I'd wager perhaps the best in the NFL over the second half of the season. Hernandez is just as dangerous at raw receiving skills.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Brady finishes with fifth best passer rating season of all-time

With a quarterback rating of 145 in the season finale, Brady finishes at 111.0. With this final masterpiece (without his two best receivers), he finished fifth all-time in single season passer rating.

The list goes as follows:
Manning (04)
Brady (07)
Young (94)
Montana (89)
Brady (10)

Young's second best season was 15th all-time, while Manning has the 25th.

When you consider the following players from the list, I'd argue that this is the greatest single season in NFL history.

Manning (04)- Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Edgerrin James
Brady (07)- Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth
Young (94)- Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Brent Jones, Ricky Watters
Montana (89)- Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Brent Jones, Roger Craig, Tom Rathman

A note on the '89 Niners. Their offense was so good that Montana put up a QB rating of 112.4. Young started three games and had a passer rating of 120.8.

Obviously, Brady's 2010 squad did not have the firepower, within any stretch of the imagination, of any of the other five teams on here.

For those of us who remember the '89 and '94 49ers well, those offenses were hell on wheels. They were explosive sure, but they were better than that- they were perfect.

 

[Razor's Edge]

Re: Brady finishes with fifth best passer rating season of all-time

Not to get to far off subject but As I was watching this game yesterday, I was thinking that this team is exactly the team BB envisions every year, just hard working smart FOOTBALL players, we have the best TE group going, good WR's, Branch, Welker and now our running game? Who would have thought that our running game would be this good. The defense is going to turn out to be the best in the league, I can't believe how much improved they are, and Brady, 4 interceptions all season, are you kidding? Amazing feat!

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Re: Brady finishes with fifth best passer rating season of all-time

One big critique of passer rating is that it encourages "small ball" by rewarding completion percentage and interception ratio (and thereby discourages being a "gunslinger," one of those words that sounds great but ends up meaning you throw the season-ending int., because you throw int.s all the time -- as in favrevrah's case.) Of course, Peyton threw his share of those too.

What's interesting is that in NE, the biggest lure to throwing the ball the wrong place at the wrong time seems to have been Moss. Of course, this could all be coincidence, but the siren song of "the Randy Ratio" seems to have seeped into even the most disciplined passing game in the league (as it later turned out to be.)

Wanting the answer to the 06 AFC Championship meltdown led (in part) to the Randy/Wes offseason, and also to the youth movement on defense. (Well, that and old man Time himself.)

Randy was a great 3-year answer and I'm glad he played that role in record-setting fashion for one year, and at a high level (for anybody else) in subsequent years. But this particular stat goes a long way to telling us about "bad Randy" impacts, that may as well be described as the bad impacts of having a single supremely talented player at the WR position.

That's why the perfect on-field exemplar of the incredible wideout is a Harrison or a Wayne more than a Moss. This season has convinced me that a WR beast with his ego in check is the rarest find in the NFL... a WR beast with an ego to address is a liability, even more than the absence of said beast.

PFnV

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Brady finishes with fifth best passer rating season of all-time

Randy was a great 3-year answer and I'm glad he played that role in record-setting fashion for one year, and at a high level (for anybody else) in subsequent years. But this particular stat goes a long way to telling us about "bad Randy" impacts, that may as well be described as the bad impacts of having a single supremely talented player at the WR position.

That's why the perfect on-field exemplar of the incredible wideout is a Harrison or a Wayne more than a Moss. This season has convinced me that a WR beast with his ego in check is the rarest find in the NFL... a WR beast with an ego to address is a liability, even more than the absence of said beast.

PFnV

You can count the number times Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, John Taylor, etc squawked about not getting the football on one finger.