Is This The Year the Patriots Trade Up?

[the wrothbroughterer]

The modus operandi of BB has been to move around and manipulate the draft board to position him to collect as many of the players on his draft board as possible. The strategy has been maddening for us fans at times, but I think there is enough data to support what he's doing. When you consider that he has picked up enough picks to make basically a 2nd draft for us this year from nothing it's especially impressive.

However, he drafted 24 players in the last 2 drafts and in the process only 8 haven't made it onto the roster or the practice squad. A pretty damn good hit rate mind you. 16 players or roughly a quarter of the roster has been acquired through the previous 2 drafts, there is a solid nucleus of veteran's to build around, and there is no reason to discount the potential addition of free agents provided they pass the "Are You Not an *******" test.

Point being there isn't a whole lot of roster space for the 12 players being selected in the upcoming April draft. You can bet that 1 or even 2 picks are going to be passed along to other teams to load up for the 2012 draft but even then they'll have 10 players left to squeeze on the roster. Me thinks that this is the year they package some picks together and try and make a splash and grab 3 and if they can swing it 4 players in the 1st round. The number of bodies available clearly isn't an issue, but level of talent may be. It just seems like the perfect storm for them to move up and cash in on 3 years of prudent, conservative drafting and shoot for some marque playmakers.

Thoughts?

 

[Off The Grid]

TWELVE Picks??

WHICH Sport are we talking about??

 

[BritPat]

If we don't trade up, I'm happy taking someone of great value in our spot (a Brandon Harris or suchlike).

But I would frigging love to see us trade up and make a statement of intent, and draft someone like AJ Green or Nick Fairley.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I can see a slight trade up. To maybe 10 or 11. Here's why. The top DL/OLB's might be better suited for the 4-3. Fairley, Quinn and Bowers. Dareus or someone else might be the top 3-4 de. And, we don't know who BB considers the top olb. If the guys I mentioned go in the Top 10. We might be able to get his top guy around 11 with a slight trade up. People forget we've traded up before. To get D.Graham in 02 and T. Warren in 03. Another possibility to trade up could be like the Graham trade. Up from 32. Say we get our guy at 1a(R.Kerrigan for arguments sake). BB might want a 3-4 de now that can get after the qb too. I've been reading good reports on S. Paea. Even though he's short. He has long arms which help in the pass rush. He won't last until our next pick 32(hopefully). We stand pat and take Kerrigan or another olb and move up for Paea or another 3-4 de.

I think we'll trade out of 33. I think someone will give us a first rounder next year(2012) and a 3rd(2011). We flip them a 5th to balance out. Like the 07 draft day trade with SF. They wanted J. Staley - T. We traded out(27TH PICK) and moved all the way into the Top 10 the next year by having a little patience. That's how we got J Mayo. My guess Oakland(Dontay Moch and his 4.25 forty). Or, a team that needs a qb if Jake Locker still on the board that doesn't take one in the 1st round.

 

[CoachK]

I've been thinking about a small trade up as well.

Every year someone who should go higher slides a few slots. If that someone is Bill's guy, I could see us moving up 3-4 slots (using our own 2nd) to get him.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I've been thinking about a small trade up as well.

Every year someone who should go higher slides a few slots. If that someone is Bill's guy, I could see us moving up 3-4 slots (using our own 2nd) to get him.

I'm hoping our pick moves up a few spots before the end of the season too. 15 right now. Seattle can win one. Have Rams at home the last week. Houston has Denver and Jax. They might win both. Dallas has Arizona tonight and Philly(may need to rest some people). SF is at Rams and has Arizona at home. Would be nice to get up to about 12 before the draft.

 

[NewFeep]

I think the Oakland pick will be sitting right in the "sweet spot" for BB. #14 to #18.

If he does trade up to get someone it will only be a couple of spots. I am bracing for the inevitable trade down! He seems to do it every year in the first round. Be really nice if he shocked us all just one dang time!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think the Oakland pick will be sitting right in the "sweet spot" for BB. #14 to #18.

If he does trade up to get someone it will only be a couple of spots. I am bracing for the inevitable trade down! He seems to do it every year in the first round. Be really nice if he shocked us all just one dang time!

BB has actually managed to make it out of the first round without trading, but not once in his tenure has he made it out of the second round without at least one trade.

 

[jeffbiologist]

We have done so well in the past couple drafts even the staunchest critics have to admire the work. We certainly do have at least 12 positions that could be upgraded. Yes, we trade down a few times and accumulate more pics, but we certainly send at least as many into future picks again we all agree. Last year I was begging for the trade up for Suh, and the Raiders pick was worth a bit more before the season too. Cant complain. Because of the CBA we wont be trading picks for players or signing any $$ contracts...say goodbye to Mankins everyone!
We draft at least these guys--

OT-Lights contract is up-Vollmer LT/Kaczur RT??
2 G/C-Mankins is gone, Neal retiring? Does Kaczur fit here?
RB-Taylor is gone, same for Faulk
CB-Bodden has to earn his $$, could be a cap casualty or an injury safeguard
DE-Seymour hasnt been replaced, hope we resign G.Warren
OLB-maybe 2-Do I have to say anything?
FS-Meriweather's last year
A JAG WR and a interior lineman and we should be set barring injury.

 

[jsull87]

BB has actually managed to make it out of the first round without trading, but not once in his tenure has he made it out of the second round without at least one trade.

and i love him for it... last year it was to get chung, butler, brace, vollmer

this year it is gronk, spikes and cunningham

seems to be doing well in the 2nd round... lets all forget wheatly

 

[ctpatsfan77]

and i love him for it... last year it was to get chung, butler, brace, vollmer

this year it is gronk, spikes and cunningham

seems to be doing well in the 2nd round... lets all forget wheatly

Not quite what I meant.

What I meant is that there have been some years where he made no trades in the first round on draft day, and some where he made no trades in the second round, but there's never been a year where neither happened.

 

[Water Boy]

Given the lack of depth in this draft, I can see a slight trade up in the first. I wouldn't expect BB to trade our two No 1s to move up, however.

 

[patman52]

1st off, Mankins will be tagged. If bb offered him 7mill a year on a long term deal,he will spend 1mill more to keep him around one more year with no long term liability

At 1A, I see the pats moving up to 9-12 if Quinn, Dareus or Fairley drop.

I see the pats moving up from 29-32 to get a Jordan, Watt, Houston etc, what ever position did not get addressed with 1A.

At 33, I see that being traded for a #1 next year, BBs phone will be ringing all night.

I see the Vikings trading back and getting their third back from us, Especially if Mallet is off the board.

I can see St Louis and Chicago willing to trade back for our third.

I would not be surprised to see just 6 players drafted this year including the two comp picks.

 

[CTHuskies]

The modus operandi of BB has been to move around and manipulate the draft board to position him to collect as many of the players on his draft board as possible. The strategy has been maddening for us fans at times, but I think there is enough data to support what he's doing. When you consider that he has picked up enough picks to make basically a 2nd draft for us this year from nothing it's especially impressive.

However, he drafted 24 players in the last 2 drafts and in the process only 8 haven't made it onto the roster or the practice squad. A pretty damn good hit rate mind you. 16 players or roughly a quarter of the roster has been acquired through the previous 2 drafts, there is a solid nucleus of veteran's to build around, and there is no reason to discount the potential addition of free agents provided they pass the "Are You Not an *******" test.

Point being there isn't a whole lot of roster space for the 12 players being selected in the upcoming April draft. You can bet that 1 or even 2 picks are going to be passed along to other teams to load up for the 2012 draft but even then they'll have 10 players left to squeeze on the roster. Me thinks that this is the year they package some picks together and try and make a splash and grab 3 and if they can swing it 4 players in the 1st round. The number of bodies available clearly isn't an issue, but level of talent may be. It just seems like the perfect storm for them to move up and cash in on 3 years of prudent, conservative drafting and shoot for some marque playmakers.

Thoughts?

I disagree. There is room on this roster 10-12 new players. You can bet that 1 maybe 2 picks are going to be passed along to other teams to load up for the 2012 draft.

I think that this is the year (because of the salary cap for rookies) BB is more likely to trade down than ever before. While it is a little early to project the strength of this draft until juniors declare. Assuming A Luck enters, I could see a team trading up to our Oakland pick for J Locker or one of the junior QBs (Mallett or Newton). I could also see Buffalo or Denver trade up to #32 for there 2nd round pick plus another pick to grab a player they covert before the end of the first round.

 

[MaineMan]

Here's the thing for me. I feel like the talent pool among seniors in this class is weaker at almost every position than most people seem to think. It appears highly unlikely that a new CBA is signed by declaration day (Jan 15th), AND, if the news about negotiations isn't definitively positive (thus leaving a lockout still a significant possibility), a much smaller percentage of juniors may declare than has been typical recently - thus making the 2011 class overall that much weaker. This all tends to favor BB staying put rather than trading down (though it doesn't necessarily follow that he'd trade-up).

OTOH - It's been widely speculated that a new CBA (signed AFTER declaration day) would delay the implementation of a rookie cap until 2012. If this speculation gains traction among juniors, a few more may come out, though perhaps not enough to completely offset the uncertainty about a potential lockout for many others, and it wouldn't necessarily alter the quality of the talent pool enough to significantly encourage BB trade-downs.

Another factor to consider is that, if a new CBA is not in place before the draft, as I understand it, Free Agency will have been wiped out and no trading of pick for players will be allowed. With no way to supplement the roster with FA signings, this would tend ( think) to encourage BB to trade down (some) to fill out the camp roster with at least some contending candidates.

BTW - I do happen to think that there would be room on the roster for another 12 new players, whether FAs or draft picks.

Also, I've been reviewing the needs of other teams besides the Pats. Among those teams likely to be picking before the Raiders' slot, several are likely to be have O-line, 34DE, 34 OLB and CB as their top needs.

IOW - This may end up being a relatively weak class with a lot of competition for the actually good players at exactly those positions where the Pats appear to have their greatest need.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Here's the thing for me. I feel like the talent pool among seniors in this class is weaker at almost every position than most people seem to think. It appears highly unlikely that a new CBA is signed by declaration day (Jan 15th), AND, if the news about negotiations isn't definitively positive (thus leaving a lockout still a significant possibility), a much smaller percentage of juniors may declare than has been typical recently - thus making the 2011 class overall that much weaker. This all tends to favor BB staying put rather than trading down (though it doesn't necessarily follow that he'd trade-up).

OTOH - It's been widely speculated that a new CBA (signed AFTER declaration day) would delay the implementation of a rookie cap until 2012. If this speculation gains traction among juniors, a few more may come out, though perhaps not enough to completely offset the uncertainty about a potential lockout for many others, and it wouldn't necessarily alter the quality of the talent pool enough to significantly encourage BB trade-downs.

Another factor to consider is that, if a new CBA is not in place before the draft, as I understand it, Free Agency will have been wiped out and no trading of pick for players will be allowed. With no way to supplement the roster with FA signings, this would tend ( think) to encourage BB to trade down (some) to fill out the camp roster with at least some contending candidates.

BTW - I do happen to think that there would be room on the roster for another 12 new players, whether FAs or draft picks.

Also, I've been reviewing the needs of other teams besides the Pats. Among those teams likely to be picking before the Raiders' slot, several are likely to be have O-line, 34DE, 34 OLB and CB as their top needs.

IOW - This may end up being a relatively weak class with a lot of competition for the actually good players at exactly those positions where the Pats appear to have their greatest need.

This draft is weak on blue chip prospects, with only three potential blue chippers, however there is a huge red chip class, which could swell even more depending on the juniors.

By having 6 of the first 100 picks, BB should be able to secure four legitimate contributors to the 2011 team and squirrel away a couple of trades for 2012 picks if need be. However our roster could definitely stand an infusion of 12 rookies. Ifforno other reason than to provide competition.

But as always in will come down to who's available vs. value.

If BB wants a certain player, he will go up and get him, he has in the past. However if the player is one of two or three available at a position that BB wants to fortify, then he will probably try to trade back and increase the value.

 

[mgteich]

Sure, Belichick might move up few spots and down a few spots, as is usually the case.

Personally, I don't see us moving from Oakland's pick to the top 10. That would likely take our 2nd.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Here's the thing for me. I feel like the talent pool among seniors in this class is weaker at almost every position than most people seem to think. It appears highly unlikely that a new CBA is signed by declaration day (Jan 15th), AND, if the news about negotiations isn't definitively positive (thus leaving a lockout still a significant possibility), a much smaller percentage of juniors may declare than has been typical recently - thus making the 2011 class overall that much weaker. This all tends to favor BB staying put rather than trading down (though it doesn't necessarily follow that he'd trade-up).

OTOH - It's been widely speculated that a new CBA (signed AFTER declaration day) would delay the implementation of a rookie cap until 2012. If this speculation gains traction among juniors, a few more may come out, though perhaps not enough to completely offset the uncertainty about a potential lockout for many others, and it wouldn't necessarily alter the quality of the talent pool enough to significantly encourage BB trade-downs.

Another factor to consider is that, if a new CBA is not in place before the draft, as I understand it, Free Agency will have been wiped out and no trading of pick for players will be allowed. With no way to supplement the roster with FA signings, this would tend ( think) to encourage BB to trade down (some) to fill out the camp roster with at least some contending candidates.

BTW - I do happen to think that there would be room on the roster for another 12 new players, whether FAs or draft picks.

Also, I've been reviewing the needs of other teams besides the Pats. Among those teams likely to be picking before the Raiders' slot, several are likely to be have O-line, 34DE, 34 OLB and CB as their top needs.

IOW - This may end up being a relatively weak class with a lot of competition for the actually good players at exactly those positions where the Pats appear to have their greatest need.

I've got it in the back of my head that Goodall had said there would be no rookie cap for 2011, from what I've been reading about underclassmen preparing to declare there will be a good pool of them coming out - which supports that vague memory of Goodall's remark.

 

[DaBruinz]

The modus operandi of BB has been to move around and manipulate the draft board to position him to collect as many of the players on his draft board as possible. The strategy has been maddening for us fans at times, but I think there is enough data to support what he's doing. When you consider that he has picked up enough picks to make basically a 2nd draft for us this year from nothing it's especially impressive.

However, he drafted 24 players in the last 2 drafts and in the process only 8 haven't made it onto the roster or the practice squad. A pretty damn good hit rate mind you. 16 players or roughly a quarter of the roster has been acquired through the previous 2 drafts, there is a solid nucleus of veteran's to build around, and there is no reason to discount the potential addition of free agents provided they pass the "Are You Not an *******" test.

Point being there isn't a whole lot of roster space for the 12 players being selected in the upcoming April draft. You can bet that 1 or even 2 picks are going to be passed along to other teams to load up for the 2012 draft but even then they'll have 10 players left to squeeze on the roster. Me thinks that this is the year they package some picks together and try and make a splash and grab 3 and if they can swing it 4 players in the 1st round. The number of bodies available clearly isn't an issue, but level of talent may be. It just seems like the perfect storm for them to move up and cash in on 3 years of prudent, conservative drafting and shoot for some marque playmakers.

Thoughts?

2009 - Chung, Butler, Brace, Vollmer, Tate, McKenzie, Ornberger, Bussey, Ingram, Pryor, Edelman, Richard

2010 - McCourty, Gronkowski, Cunningham, Spikes, Price, Hernandez, Mesko, Larson, Welch, Deaderick, Weston, Robinson.

Those are the ones that were drafted the last 2 years. Here is the run down the 8 lesser known players whom I'm assuming you are thinking that didn't make it onto the Roster.

McKenzie - IRed as a rookie. Was cut and signed to the PS this year.. Then he was cut this year at his request after 7 weeks on the PS.

Bussey - IRed as a Rookie. Was IRed this year and released with an injury settlement.

Ingram - made the team as a Rookie, but then was cut 6 weeks into his sophomore year.

Richard - Was on the PS as a rookie. Currently on the IR during his Sophomore year.

Larsen - Cut by the Pats who wanted him on the PS. Claimed by the Buccaneers and is currently starting for them.

Welch - Cut by the Pats. Signed by the Vikings to their PS and then to their Pro-Roster.

Robinson - Cut by the Pats. Signed by the Seahawks to their PS. Signed by the Detroit Lions to their Pro Roster.

Kade Weston - IRed by the Pats.

Anyways.. the Pats have 6 guaranteed picks in the 1st 3 rounds. Beyond that, we don't know because we don't know what compensation is owed for the likes of Tracy White and Jarrod Page.

 

[patchick]

I see this as a draft to be aggressive in response to opportunities. I'd be surprised by any blockbuster trades, but strategic moves up as they made for Ty Warren and Gronkowski make a lot of sense.

In particular, there's likely to be a tier of impact defensive players that drops off just above the Oakland pick. If a 2-3 slot move up nets a guy like Fairley or Amukamara, IMO that's huge value.

On the flip side, if that handful of guys go early, that top pick becomes wildly unpredictable. Maybe you stay in place, draft Julio Jones as a pure luxury pick, then trade up from the low 1st for a J.J. Watt. Or maybe you trade down. Or maybe you like a Watt or Beal or ? well enough to just make certain and get your man, Kipers of the world be damned.

IOW, I'd call this a stay-flexible draft with a lonngggg list of if-then scenarios in place.