What position SHOULD the Pats draft first?

[ctpatsfan77]

Let's say YOU ran the draft, and you were on the clock for the Patriots' first pick of the first round. What POSITION (not necessarily a specific player) would you take?

 

[D-Money]

J.J Watt if he comes out.I doubt we will get a guy like Fairley, Dareus,Quinn.I would want J.J Watt or Allen Bailey if he falls to our spot.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

J.J Watt if he comes out.I doubt we will get a guy like Fairley, Dareus,Quinn.I would want J.J Watt or Allen Bailey if he falls to our spot.

I'll take that as a vote for DE, then?

 

[SirApropos]

Since I think the pick will be in the 15-17 range I think OT is the best value. It's too early for OG/OC and if NE waits until their 1st round pick teams like the Bears, Colts and Eagles will get the better OT's.

I've been high on Anthony Castonzo from BC for a few weeks now. He's who I would pick regardless of resigning Matt Light or not.

 

[Metaphors]

One of (in no particular order):

AJ Green (not a need but dude is special)
Marcel Dareus
Nick Fairley
Da'Quan Bowers
Robert Quinn
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara

If these guys are gone (and they should be) trade down and try to get a 1st in 2012.

 

[billdog3484]

if the players at each position were all graded the same, id go with a DE.

but, im up for taking the best available player if there is a significant gap between he and the next, even if hes not a position i necessary covet

id like to obtain an OL, DE, OLB, S in the first 2 rounds. dont care what order.

 

[UofApatsfan]

Since OT isn't there I voted DE, but either one would be a good pick. Marcell Dareus is enough of a talent where IMO it would be worth trading up in the first to get him depending on what they'd have to give. It's not every year when you get a top 10 prospect who's already shown dominance as a 3-4 DE. Regarding the other positions and why using a 1st on them:

OLB - 3-4 OLB has been pretty boom or bust recently for teams that take them early in the draft, and in a system as complicated as BB's is for OLBs, it's even harder to tell what OLB prospects coming out of college would work. IMO it's just not worth the risk to wager a 1st rounder on an OLB being a good fit in this system, except if it's a physical freak like Quinn whom they have very little chance at getting.

OG/OC - A position where theres always talent later on. It wouldn't make much sense to give an unproven guard first round money but let Mankins leave. This year there isn't a stand out center like Pouncey, so the one exception (a stand out C) doesn't exist this year.

RB - too many reasons why it would be stupid to use a first here, but the names Laurence Maroney and Benjarvus Green-Ellis should do all the talking alone.

WR - The way Brady turns no names into dependable guys, the way the offense is playing with the receivers it has, and the way it worked out the last time they used a high pick on a receiver is enough of a reason here to wait on a receiver.

DB - Just not enough of a need to be the first choice of a 1st rounder. With that said, there are DBs worth taking in the 1st if value presents itself, but not as big of a need as OT or DE.

 

[jmt57]

Go for the best value, with best value defined as a combination of best player available + team need.

Looking at the question strictly from the angle of team need - i.e., without considering who is available at what positions, any consideration of how deep the draft is at specific positions, or the impossible to guess question of who will be available when the Pats draft - I'll go with DE first, OLB second and OL third.

 

[NewFeep]

I voted DE. I hope BB takes a stud DE/OLB type but if the best player is a Tackle I will be fine with that selection. Matt Light doesn't have too many good seasons left in him. I agree that 14-18 range is too high a pick for a C/G unless the guy is a can't miss, all-pro sort with all the other intangibles.....

Half the fun of the draft for me is not knowing who BB is targeting. He fleeced Denver and Dallas and still got his man in McCourty. I can't wait for this coming draft with 3 picks in the first 33.

 

[Urgent]

Of course, best value when looking at specific picks.

Hypothetically which position?

I would say OLB.

Why?

CB - Pats have done perfectly well with OTIS, Troy Brown, Kyle Arrington, etc. at corner in big games.

DE - Rotation of late-rounders and veterans has worked.

OT - Scarnecchia has worked magic given time to train tackles over a year or two.

WR - Huge bust factor, and the things the Pats value - getting open, good hands - are not huge draws for the first round, when size and speed dominate.

OLB - Most complicated position on the Belichick 3-4 defense, requiring power to engage OT's, speed to rush the passer, mass to hold the edge, agility to drop into coverage, and intelligence to know when to do each. The Pats have struggled converting vet players into 3-4 OLB's, and need special players to deliver all those attributes. The defense is dramatically better with versatile OLB's. It's time to restock.

 

[TriplecHamp]

I feel like DE is a lot deeper than OLB this year so my vote has to go to OLB. We can grab DE with our pick.

 

[Off The Grid]

Respectfully submitted: I'd never draft that way: the thinking is too linear to be effective.

1 ~ It doesn't take account of the Supply and Demand model, or other dynamics.

2 ~ And it doesn't take the approach of Return On Investment ~ or Impact ~ which is the ONLY way to draft, in my opinion.

For instance, if I thought the ROI on an O Tackle and a D End were the same, when our turn came, but I figured that there'd be a lot of D Ends drafted before we dropped a level, allowing us to pick up a comparable one at our next pick...whereas the thinner O Tackle Market was about to go off a CLIFF...that would, of course, make a strong Argument in favor of snatching the O Tackle.

Personally, I'd like to see us Trade Down a FEW times, into the 20's, and see where that takes us. Some folks have Nate Solder and Cameron Heyward sliding into the mid 2nd Round, which is not inconceivable, and I could certainly see Aldon Smith AND Ryan Kerrigan sliding into the early 2nd.

At worst, we could rake up a few extra 3rd Rounders, and roll them into 2012...

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Trade.

....

 

[Peachhead]

3-4 DE if the player is there. Good D-lineman go earlier than good (most other positions). It's no co-incidence that our D-line had 3 first rounders for several of our best years, and no-coincidence the entire defense (especially the passing defense) has declined greatly since Seymour was shipped out of town.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Trade.

....

Dear Prof. Rocks:

Could you please enlighten us as to why?

Sincerely,

ctpatsfan77

 

[patchick]

Respectfully submitted: I'd never draft that way: the thinking is too linear to be effective.

1 ~ It doesn't take account of the Supply and Demand model, or other dynamics.

2 ~ And it doesn't take the approach of Return On Investment ~ or Impact ~ which is the ONLY way to draft, in my opinion.

I think that's all implicit in the question. It's really "given the way this draft class and the Pats' picks are shaking out, what's your first move?" That requires looking at the 2011 & 2012 rosters, looking at the depth of talent in the draft at different positions, considering the FA market and salaries at different positions, etc. etc.

You can see that people are thinking that way by the votes. OT would be a strong candidate IF there were OTs worth taking with a #10-16 pick this year, but no dice. On the flipside, DE is in the lead in the poll, but nobody would be thinking that way with last year's talent pool which was very light in 5-technique prospects.

From this early vantage point, there are likely to be 3 legit 5-techniques this year: Dareus, Fairley and Watt. (Cameron Jordan is an interesting prospect, but probably more of a Jarvis Green than a Seymour/Warren IMO.) I rank all 3 comfortably ahead of Odrick from last year. I want to be sure to come away with one of the 3, so DE is my answer.

That said, I do NOT think Watt is a top-16 talent, so if Dareus and Fairley are off the boards way too early, some dealing and brinksmanship may be in order.

Also, it is my intention to change my mind 5-8 times between now and April.

 

[Off The Grid]

Respectfully submitted: I'd never draft that way: the thinking is too linear to be effective.

1 ~ It doesn't take account of the Supply and Demand model, or other dynamics.

2 ~ And it doesn't take the approach of Return On Investment ~ or Impact ~ which is the ONLY way to draft, in my opinion.

For instance, if I thought the ROI on an O Tackle and a D End were the same, when our turn came, but I figured that there'd be a lot of D Ends drafted before we dropped a level, allowing us to pick up a comparable one at our next pick...whereas the thinner O Tackle Market was about to go off a CLIFF...that would, of course, make a strong Argument in favor of snatching the O Tackle.

Personally, I'd like to see us Trade Down a FEW times, into the 20's, and see where that takes us. Some folks have Nate Solder and Cameron Heyward sliding into the mid 2nd Round, which is not inconceivable, and I could certainly see Aldon Smith AND Ryan Kerrigan sliding into the early 2nd.

At worst, we could rake up a few extra 3rd Rounders, and roll them into 2012...

I think that's all implicit in the question.

Let's say YOU ran the draft, and you were on the clock for the Patriots' first pick of the first round. What POSITION (not necessarily a specific player) would you take?

You infer a great deal, my friend.

I hope I didn't come across as argumentative to Brother Con Pat: my intent was to offer very respectfull criticism of his proffered approach.

It's really "given the way this draft class and the Pats' picks are shaking out, what's your first move?"

That requires looking at the 2011 & 2012 rosters, looking at the depth of talent in the draft at different positions, considering the FA market and salaries at different positions, etc. etc.

You can see that people are thinking that way by the votes. OT would be a strong candidate IF there were OTs worth taking with a #10-16 pick this year, but no dice. On the flipside, DE is in the lead in the poll, but nobody would be thinking that way with last year's talent pool which was very light in 5-technique prospects.

From this early vantage point, there are likely to be 3 legit 5-techniques this year: Dareus, Fairley and Watt. (Cameron Jordan is an interesting prospect, but probably more of a Jarvis Green than a Seymour/Warren IMO.) I rank all 3 comfortably ahead of Odrick from last year. I want to be sure to come away with one of the 3, so DE is my answer.

That said, I do NOT think Watt is a top-16 talent, so if Dareus and Fairley are off the boards way too early, some dealing and brinksmanship may be in order.

Also, it is my intention to change my mind 5-8 times between now and April.

Excellent assessment. I assume you're clear that I was using my above example as an example, as I stated. Indeed, I've said many times that this was a particularly weak O Tackle crew.

Of course, in the likely event of Tyron Smith or others from the stronger 2012 and 2013 Classes joining in, that could certainly change.

 

[borg]

They will go DE for the following reasons...
1) Mid 1st rounder needs to be a 3 Down player
2) T Warren recovery is unknown
3) G Warren is old
4) Ravens ran it down their throats last playoffs. Seymour was missed, they had to slide Wilfork to DE.
Pryor, Brace, Wright are situational players only.

 

[jays52]

I would say DE if Watt or Fairley are available. Dareus will likely go to a 1-gap 34 or to a 43 team before the Pats pick. Even if he's there, I wouldn't think Dareus would be a good fit for the Patriots. I would even consider moving up for Fairley. He's got the length, technique, and nastiness required for this scheme. He can own his assignment on the tackle against the run, and can rush against the tackle, guard, or center in the passing game. In a four man sub front he and Wilfork would be dominant at the 3 and 1 techniques, respectively. Yeah, I like Fairley. Dareus isn't even on my board FWIW.

If there's no play on Fairley or Watt, I think there is the real opportunity to take an athlete. Considering that most 34 Jokers are the best athletes on the team, I think there needs to be a strong consideration on taking the gamble here. Worst case you get a great ST'er, best case you get Demarcus Ware.

Other than that? Trade down for linemen, a two-down homerun back, a backup Mike, and a safety.

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

Offensive Line, Defensive Line, and Outside LB are all of critical importance going forward, where they are picked is pretty inconsequential. I'd like to see them get go defense, defense, offense and then round out the rest of the roster based on how things sort out with the teams free agents.