Strength of Schedule and MVP voting

[BradyManny]

I am on record for not caring about the outcome of the MVP as long as Manning doesn't win another undeserved one, but with that said, I think its pretty remarkable to take a look at not just what this offense has done this year, but who it has done it against.

Specifically, in the context of the MVP race.

I'm going to use Football Outsiders opponent adjusted team defense stats, so that the numbers aren't skewed by either of these guys' production against these teams.

I have the rankings listed in parentheses as (PASS DEFENSE RANK, OVERALL RANK).

Here is Brady's opposition:

- San Diego (3, 4)
- Pittsburgh (4, 1)
- Chicago (5, 5)
- Indy (7, 17)
- Baltimore (8, 7)
- Cleveland (9, 9)
- Cincy (12, 21)
- Minnesota (16, 10)
- NYJ (17, 8)
- Miami (20, 12)
- Detroit (24, 23)
- Buffalo (27, 27)

To summarize, Brady has faced the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 12th best pass defenses in the league, and faces the 2nd best on Sunday. Yikes. FYI, Green Bay is the 3rd defense overall, as well.

Overall, the offense has faced 6 of the top 10 overall ranking defenses, again, with the 7th coming on Sunday.

For reference, I'll check Phillip Rivers level of competition, if I had more time, I'd check Manning, but here's Rivers schedule:

- Ten (6, 6)
- Indy (7, 17)
- KC (14, 19)
- Oak (18, 15)
- STL (22, 22)
- Arizona (25, 24)
- New England (26, 26)
- Seattle (28, 29)
- Jax (30,30)
- Den (31, 31)
- Hou (32, 32)

Rivers has only faced two top 10 pass defenses, neither higher than 6th best. Meanwhile, Rivers has faced 6 of the worst 8 pass defenses in the league.

Pretty stark contrast.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Any QB who loses two games to the Raiders should be automatically excluded from any MVP consideration.............

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Another crock is how some people focus on passing yards. People used paasing yards to tout Manning (before his INT streak) and Rivers still. Well, Schaub had more passing yards last night than Brady did on Sunday.

You see, total passing yards have little to do with winning. You often pile up passing yards by desperately playing catch-up.

Of all the QB statistics, TD/INT ratio, passer rating (as flawed as it is), and completion percentage all correlate with winning more than does passing yards. Rivers trails TB by a lot in all three, and that is even when you don't take into account the difference in schedules.

Add in your data, and even an idiot can see who is the MVP even if that idiot has slept through the last 5 weeks.

 

[D-Money]

Rivers lost any chance when he sucked against the raiders at home.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

MVP voting in a nutshell:

All the voters are reporters.

Before the season starts they write an article stating who they predict will be the MVP.

At the end of the season they vote for the person they predicted in the pre-season so they can write an article congradulating themself on the brilliant pre-season pick.

SOS or the actual games has absolutely nothing to do with it.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I am on record for not caring about the outcome of the MVP as long as Manning doesn't win another undeserved one, but with that said, I think its pretty remarkable to take a look at not just what this offense has done this year, but who it has done it against.

Specifically, in the context of the MVP race.

I'm going to use Football Outsiders opponent adjusted team defense stats, so that the numbers aren't skewed by either of these guys' production against these teams.

I have the rankings listed in parentheses as (PASS DEFENSE RANK, OVERALL RANK).

Here is Brady's opposition:

- San Diego (3, 4)
- Pittsburgh (4, 1)
- Chicago (5, 5)
- Indy (7, 17)
- Baltimore (8, 7)
- Cleveland (9, 9)
- Cincy (12, 21)
- Minnesota (16, 10)
- NYJ (17, 8)
- Miami (20, 12)
- Detroit (24, 23)
- Buffalo (27, 27)

To summarize, Brady has faced the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 12th best pass defenses in the league, and faces the 2nd best on Sunday. Yikes. FYI, Green Bay is the 3rd defense overall, as well.

Overall, the offense has faced 6 of the top 10 overall ranking defenses, again, with the 7th coming on Sunday.

For reference, I'll check Phillip Rivers level of competition, if I had more time, I'd check Manning, but here's Rivers schedule:

- Ten (6, 6)
- Indy (7, 17)
- KC (14, 19)
- Oak (18, 15)
- STL (22, 22)
- Arizona (25, 24)
- New England (26, 26)
- Seattle (28, 29)
- Jax (30,30)
- Den (31, 31)
- Hou (32, 32)

Rivers has only faced two top 10 pass defenses, neither higher than 6th best. Meanwhile, Rivers has faced 6 of the worst 8 pass defenses in the league.

Pretty stark contrast.

Wow, the Pats had a killer schedule. I think it was the third hardest schedule coming into the season. They have faced some tough defenses, and destroyed 3 of the best (Pittsburgh, NY & Chicago). Amazing. Brady is the MVP, whether he gets the votes or not.

 

[Imperator]

MVP voting in a nutshell:

All the voters are reporters.

Before the season starts they write an article stating who they predict will be the MVP.

At the end of the season they vote for the person they predicted in the pre-season so they can write an article congradulating themself on the brilliant pre-season pick.

SOS or the actual games has absolutely nothing to do with it.

What were the predictions for the 07 Season MVP? Pretty clear Brady and the offense's games had something to do with him winning it that year.

 

[scout]

Brady is having a great year (duh). The stats can be compared to the other top qb's, but what is really impressive, is his leadership. I've never seen him so emotional and giving "advice" to the team. Compare what he's doing in leadership compared to the other MVP candidates and there's no need to even vote.

 

[wistahpatsfan]

Brady is having a great year (duh). The stats can be compared to the other top qb's, but what is really impressive, is his leadership. I've never seen him so emotional and giving "advice" to the team. Compare what he's doing in leadership compared to the other MVP candidates and there's no need to even vote.

True. Hopefully he can lead the Pats to win out and remove any doubt for the voters. There'll always be some who attribute too much credit to his coach...as if the other players don't have a coach calling the plays and getting teammates around him that help.

Even still, I'd bet Brady would prefer the SB MVP to the league MVP all day long. He might get both.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

brady is a lock for the MVP, barring a completely disasterous showing against green bay, miami and buffalo. and by disasterous, i mean TB has to play like Sanchez for the last 3 games for him to lose the MVP.