Media Predictions: Week 14, Pats at Bears

[Betterthanmost]

Week 14 Friday 10-pack | ProFootballTalk

NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 14 - National Football League - ESPN

Sunday Countdown: Your weekly NFL guide - ESPN

 

[BradyManny]

Re: Media Predictions: Week 14, Pats at Bearsf

Shocker, Cris Carter picked against us.

Seriously though, I see the logic in picking Chicago this week. Schefter explained it on D&C, and while he's no analyst, his logic was sound. It will be a tough week for the Patriots, they have a lot to overcome (short week, away game in crummy weather on crummy field, great opposing defense, opposing team with as much or more on the line).

But ultimately, I don't think those intangibles are enough to stop our tangible advantage in personnel.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Re: Media Predictions: Week 14, Pats at Bearsf

The Patriots have some intangibles on their side too -- they've responded positively to pretty much every challenge this year. The team has character.

 

[patfanken]

Re: Media Predictions: Week 14, Pats at Bearsf

Shocker, Cris Carter picked against us.

Seriously though, I see the logic in picking Chicago this week. Schefter explained it on D&C, and while he's no analyst, his logic was sound. It will be a tough week for the Patriots, they have a lot to overcome (short week, away game in crummy weather on crummy field, great opposing defense, opposing team with as much or more on the line).

But ultimately, I don't think those intangibles are enough to stop our tangible advantage in personnel.

In the first paragraph of your post you were right on the money. However outside of QB and OL where exactly do you see our TANGIBLE advantage in personnel??. Quite the contrary, it looks to me that it is Chicago who has a number of "tangible personnel" advantages at RB, more explosive WRs, kick returners - DL, Pass rushers, LBs And in the area where we have the advantage QB - it isn't as large as it was last week.

When you consider all the "intangible" obstacles you mentioned in your first paragraph, and add the personnel issues, I can't believe there aren't more "mediots" who are picking the Bears. I'd feel real good about our chances on a good field with decent weather. All those obstacles and the bad weather makes me nervous. A few lucky bounces either way will decide this game.

 

[Sicilian]

Re: Media Predictions: Week 14, Pats at Bearsf

The Patriots have some intangibles on their side too -- they've responded positively to pretty much every challenge this year. The team has character.

Count the Bears "strength" of schedule amongst the intangibles as well. It's 3rd from the bottom at .396.

 

[Ron Sellers]

NFL Picks, Week 14 - CBSSports.com Football
NFL Picks, Pete Prisco - CBSSports.com Football
Prisco, Judge, Richard, Brinson and Katzowitz all think the Pats will win.
Only Brinson thinks the Bears will keep it close enough to cover the 3½ point spread.

This is the best game of the weekend. The Patriots looked dominant in blowing out the Jets on Monday night, but the Bears have been playing well. Jay Cutler hasn't thrown a pick the past two weeks, but now he has to face Bill Belichick's defense. The Patriots might be coming off a high, which could be in play here, but I think they are the better team. Belichick gets the better of Mike Martz and his offense.
Patriots 28, Bears 21

Weekly expert NFL picks - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN
Cheat Sheet: Week 14 NFL picks - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN
Alex Marvez, John Czarnecki, Adam Schein and Adam Caplan take the Pats.
Jay Glazer and Peter Schrager (comment below) go with the Bears.

Now 9-3 and winners of five straight games, the Bears would be safely headed to the playoffs, you’d think. Then you look at what’s left on their schedule and realize they should feel anything but comfortable. Sunday’s matchup with the red-hot Patriots is followed by a road trip to play the Vikings, an all-out slugfest with the Jets and a season finale at Green Bay. Could Chicago finish the year 0-4 and find itself out of the playoffs at 9-7? Absolutely. Will it? I don’t think so. Few pundits seem to believe in these Bears, but with five touchdowns and just one interception in his past three games, I like Mr. Cutler to get to the playoffs for the first time in his five-year NFL career. It starts on Sunday with a win over the Patriots, who’ll be coming into this one on just six days’ rest after Monday night’s emotional win over the Jets. Belichick and Brady don’t tend to have many “letdown” games, but the Bears are going to be tough to beat in their own building on a late Sunday afternoon in December. In the rare home upset, I’ll take Chicago on a last-second Robbie Gould field goal.
The Pick: Bears 30, Patriots 27

NFL Week 14 Picks including Patriots-Bears, Eagles-Cowboys - Peter King - SI.com

New England Patriots (10-2) at Chicago Bears (9-3)
It could be an awful weather day in the spaceship just off Lake Michigan, and what makes it worse for the Bears is a lightning bug named Danny Woodhead. He'll be the Pats' not-so-secret weapon, along with short stuff to the rookie tight ends.
Patriots 17, Bears 14

NFL Football Picks - Sporting News
Vinnie Iyer: Pats 20, Bears 19
Dennis Dillon: Pats 28, Bears 23
Steve Greenberg: Bears 24, Pats 21
Clifton Brown: Pats 32, Bears 24
Todd Wright: Bears 19, Pats 13
Real Scouts: Pats 34, Bears 31
Russ Lande: Pats 24, Bears 17
Bears can win big one for NFC - Sporting News - Vinnie Iyer

The New England Patriots have rolled through the AFC's best -- New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. Now they get consecutive tests against two of the NFC's best: the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.

If the Bears beat the Pats this week –- a la Super Bowl 20 –- we'll just continue to scratch our heads on who should be the favorites for Super Bowl 45.

Game of the Week
New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears
The Patriots have made their pass defense look a whole lot better with 18 interceptions, tied for most in the AFC. Jay Cutler has gone two games without being picked off, so let's just say he's due.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Bears 19

Week 14 Matchup: Patriots at Bears - Sporting News - Gene Chamberlain

KEY BEARS PLAYERS

DE Julius Peppers: The $91 million pass rusher has to be all over Brady from the start, whether it's by beating left tackle Matt Light or right tackle Sebastian Vollmer. Peppers is the key to the Bears' defensive plans because they'll never be able to stand up to the Patriots' precision passing game by blitzing -- they don't blitz enough to do it effectively. Getting to Brady in a four-man rush is the only way the Bears can force him into turnovers.

Nickel Back D.J. Moore: He'll get matched Welker a lot, or sometimes Woodhead. Moore's good quickness will make him tough for both Patriots to shake on short routes. It's covering the bigger players downfield, like Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson, that causes the undersized corner problems.

QB Jay Cutler: He must continue playing more like Brady than like Rex Grossman. Cutler has thrown 57 consecutive passes without an interception. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has swallowed his pride and had Cutler looking underneath more than downfield in recent weeks. Cutler can't afford taking big risks because New England's defense thrives on turnovers, but the unit is inexperienced and susceptible to breakdowns.

BOTTOM LINE
The Bears will fail to establish a running game and Cutler will be forced into gambling, causing mistakes that New England eventually capitalizes upon. The last game between these teams was a 17-13 trench war, but the only thing that could make this one look like that would be for Soldier Field's abysmal turf and Chicago's December weather conditions to have an impact. Instead, Brady should be able to get underneath the Bears' coverage and mix in the run and short passes enough to scrape out a win, similar to the 31-28 victory over Indianapolis.
Score: Patriots 28, Bears 23.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Weekly NFL picks from USA TODAY's analysts - USATODAY.com
Pete's Picks: Broncos will start post-McDaniels era with win - USATODAY.com
All eight panelists take the Pats to win in Chicago.
Pete O'Brien thinks the Pats will cover the 3-point spread and win 28-24.



Yahoo! Sports - NFL - Expert Picks Week 14
Les Carpenter and Michael Silver pick the Bears to win.
Jason Cole and 83% of Yahoo's users go with the Pats.



NFL Picks Week 14: Shine's Off Colts-Titans Matchup -- NFL FanHouse
Dave Goldberg is going with the Pats to cover a 3-point spread.

What does the betting public think of the Patriots? Well, how many teams would be favorites on the road against a 9-3 team coming off a short week?

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady demonstrate they can get ready in five days as well as they can in 10.

Patriots 24, Bears 20

2010 NFL Week 14 Picks and Predictions from Whatifsports.com From WhatIfSports.com

While Mike Martz's arrival dominated the offseason headlines, Chicago has rose to prominence this season behind a vaunted defense that is conceding just 16 points a contest. Behind acquisition Julius Peppers and a healthy Brian Urlacher the Bears have held opponents to an NFC-low 84.9 yards per game on the ground. The secondary has been just as stout, suffocating signal callers to a QB Rating of 71.1, second-best in the NFL.

However, unlike years' past where it acted as an Achilles' heel, the offense has held their own in 2010. Although the unit is far from explosive (averaging a mere 20.5 points and 300.3 yards per game), quarterback Jay Cutler and company have become extremely efficient in the past month. In five games since the Bye week, the offense is averaging 24 points while Cutler has thrown just three interceptions. A rejuvenated Matt Forte has also aided in Chicago's recent success. Failing to rush for 55 or more yards in six of the first seven games, the Bears back is averaging 79.2 on the ground during Chicago's five-game win streak.

We would be remiss in our Chicago discussion without mentioning the outside influences that have blessed the Bears. Chicago has reaped the benefits from generous schedule, as the Bears' victories have come against opponents with a composite record of 36-60 (.375 pct.). The Vikings have vastly underperformed thanks to the declining play of Brett Favre, and Detroit has been burdened with a carousel at the QB position thanks to injuries. Moreover, Chicago's victories haven't exactly been executed in dominant fashion, as six of their nine wins have been by seven points or less.

2010 NFL Week 14 - New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears From WhatIfSports.com

Every week WhatIfSports.com simulates thousands of NFL games. This week the New England Patriots win 62.7% of the time by an average score of 21.5-17.6. The stats in the box score below represent the average outcomes of those simulations.

WalterFootball.com: NFL Picks Against the Spread - Week 14, 2010

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: How good is Tom Brady? He just does everything proficiently and is in complete command of the offense. He has so many perfectly tailored weapons at his disposal that containing New England is next to impossible.

The Patriots just humiliated the Jets, and they're more than capable of doing the same thing to the Bears. And I'm not showing disrespect; Chicago's defense is prolific. I just don't see how any defense can slow down Brady right now.

If the Patriots struggle to get into the end zone, it'll be because they commit unforced errors, much like the Eagles did a couple of weeks ago (dropped touchdowns, tipped passes turned into interceptions, etc.)

Week 14 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Bears 21

 

[SVN]

ESPN's Patriots-Bears prediction roundup - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

only one iam worried about is schefter. when he has picked against the pats he has been right for some weird reason

 

[SVN]

Reid top coach heading into home stretch - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

michael silver

The Patriots will have their inevitable letdown in Chicago and the Bears will continue to surprise us by pressuring Tom Brady(notes) in an upset victory.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Week 14 NFL picks - Sam Farmer - chicagotribune.com

Bears are blocking better and giving Jay Cutler more time. That might be enough to pull off upset against team due for letdown.

Pick: Bears 24, Patriots 23

Week 14 NFL Picks Wary of Overrating Patriots, Underrating Jets - Michael Hurley - NESN.com

New England (-3) over CHICAGO

I'm really happy to see this line -- not because I don't think the Pats are good, but because they're not 45-3 good.
Now, earlier in the season, the Pats followed up what was then their biggest win of the year with a stinker in Cleveland. It was probably the best thing to happen to the young team, which learned in a hurry that last week doesn't matter.

The only concern I have about the Patriots taking care of business is that Soldier Field turf. Remember what it did to Michael Vick? But Belichick is the master of preparation (soaking practice balls in practice leading up to the 2008 Oakland game comes to mind), so it won't catch the Pats off guard.

Globe 10.0 - Sports video with Bob Ryan - Boston.com
Bob Ryan and Greg Lee bot take the Pats, though Ryan did say he would not be shocked if it was a close game - or if the Bears win.
Eric Wilbur's Boston Sports Blog

Patriots 20, Bears 14. After the drama of Monday night, it's conceivable that the Pats drop one in the snow, then win out the rest of the way. But go ahead, you pick against this team right now.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Globe staff's pro picks, Week 14 - Boston.com
Christopher Gasper, Shalise Manza Young, Monique Walker and Jim McBride all think that not only will the Pats win, they'll cover a 3-point spread.



Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Week 14 real and spectacular picks
Patriots-Bears is NFL game of the week - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

3. Cutler is the man from Santa Claus (Ind.), but Brady is the king of cold weather. Seen the forecast for late Sunday afternoon in Chicago? Papa Bear Halas must be smiling from the great big owner's box in the sky: snow, lows in the single digits and brisk winds.

It's good news for the legacy of the old Black & Blue Division.

It's bad news for the Bears.

Last week we chronicled Tom Brady's unprecedented collection of record win streaks: from the longest playoff win streak in history (10 games) to the longest overall win streak in history (21 games) to the longest regular-season home win streak in history (still active at 26 games).

Here's another: Brady is the best cold-weather quarterback in history (since 1960), with a remarkable 18-2 (.900) career record in games played in snow, ice or below freezing temperatures.

Some other notable cold-weather champions? Green Bay Hall of Famer Bart Starr, hero of the Ice Bowl, was 15-4; Pittsburgh's legendary big-game gunslinger Terry Bradshaw was 14-4.

Brady's greatest cold-weather performance came in the 2004 AFC title game at Pittsburgh. It was the coldest game in Heinz Field history (-1 wind chill) and the Steelers possessed the league's stingiest scoring defense. Brady was near flawless (130.5 rating) as the Patriots won, 41-27.

There were steady winds last week at Foxboro and a wind chill of 15 degrees. Again, Brady (148.9 rating) and the New England offense were virtually flawless, dropping 45 large on a tough Jets defense.

The Pick

The Bears are good. But it's hard to go against New England's history in big games or the fact that the Patriots have lit up a series of great defenses in recent weeks, including 39 points against Pittsburgh and 45 points against the Jets last week.

And New England just dominates NFC opponents.

Brady's Patriots are 32-6 (.842) in games against NFC opponents (including 3-1 in Super Bowls) and 9-1 (.900) against the NFC North. The lone loss to an NFC North team was delivered by the Packers in 2002.

New England 26, Chicago 21

PFT’s Week 14 picks | ProFootballTalk

Patriots at Bears

Florio’s take: Several weeks ago, the Bears cooled off the red-hot Eagles in a game at Soldier Field. This time around, the opponent is much more formidable, with a quick-strike passing game that gladly will take what the Cover Two defense gives it. New England has rediscovered its 2007 vibe, without the pressure of having to remain unblemished.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 28, Bears 20.

Rosenthal’s take: On PFT Daily, I made the case this is a dangerous matchup for the Patriots. It’s a road game on a short week and the Bears’ defense is the rare group that can slow Tom Brady down. The Patriots don’t have the pass rush to truly expose Chicago’s offensive line. Then Florio put me on the spot to ask if I’d actually pick the Bears and I said no way. So there you go.

Rosenthal’s pick: Patriots 28, Bears 21.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Dumb & Dumber!

I Was Checking Out NFL Picks On Espn.com From So-Called "Experts" And As If I Didn't Know It Already Shefter & Mortensen Picked Chicago. Their Hate For Pats Is So Obvious. I Wonder Which One Leads When They Dance?! Not That There's Anything Wrong With That! lol

 

[Ron Sellers]

ESPN's Patriots-Bears prediction roundup - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

A roundup of how ESPN's analysts see Sunday's Patriots-Bears game playing out:

* ESPNBoston.com’s Mike Reiss: Patriots 24, Bears 16. This looks like it will be an elements game and special teams becomes a big part of it. I think the Bears are better equipped to handle the heavy winds and possible snow flurries that are part of the forecast, and it also helps that they are getting the Patriots on a short week after an emotional win over the Jets. All those factors seem to favor the Bears, but in the end, I still see the Patriots as a cut above. In a lower-scoring game, I like the Patriots.

* ESPNBoston.com’s Tedy Bruschi: Patriots 21, Bears 13. I actually think the Patriots are better equipped to handle the elements. Brady is a terrific cold-weather quarterback. Jay Cutler hasn't thrown an interception the last two games. That short-lived streak ends. This Patriot defense is extremely opportunistic and will continue to make big plays.

* Mark Schlereth: Patriots over Bears. I’m going to go with the New England Patriots. Obviously, you look at them offensively, they're clicking on all cylinders. I think the Bears will be able to slow them down somewhat. I still question the Bears offensively, especially offensive line-wise. Every week I put on the tape, they give up 5, 6 sacks, a bunch of pressure and eventually that’s what leads to turnovers and you know the opportunistic Patriots will take advantage of those sacks. They’re going to create some turnovers and give Tom Brady a short field.

* Herm Edwards: Bears over Patriots. I think they go to Chicago, on a field that is conducive to the Bears, not a very good field to play on, tough, conditions will be cold … I think the Bears make this an ugly football game and find a way to win.

* ESPN experts: Five of eight pick the Pats. Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter and Seth Wickersham pick the Bears.

* Sunday Countdown: Keyshawn Johnson and Tom Jackson pick the Patriots. Mike Ditka and Cris Carter pick the Bears.

* AccuScore simulations: Patriots 24.3, Bears 20.7 (on average). Patriots win 61 percent of the time. You can simulate the game yourself here.

* Madden simulation: Patriots 30, Bears 28. Down 28-23 with time ticking away in the fourth quarter, Tom Brady leads the Patriots on an incredible 82-yard drive, capping things off with a game-winning 15-yard touchdown pass to Wes Welker. It's the eleventh win of the season for New England as it continues to look like the best team in the NFL, while the Bears' loss helps tighten up the standings in the NFC North.

* Matt Williamson, Scouts Inc.: Patriots 28, Bears 27

Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog From the Hart: Bears Friday Six-Pack - Andy Hart

Prediction:
I actually think this is a bad spot for the Patriots. They’re coming down off a huge victory over the rival Jets. They have a short week to prepare for a team they don’t play too often or know much about. Their strength – offense – might be matched by the Bears strength – defense. That leaves a battle of the teams’ lesser units. Assuming it doesn’t turn into a pure weather game I’ll give Jay Cutler the edge over New England’s suspect pass defense. The real wild card will be the wind. If it’s just ridiculous, then the game may come down to good fortune more than good play. Regardless, I’m going with the Bears to get the home win and pull off the upset in this one with the 20-17 victory. I certainly won’t be surprised to see the Patriots win, and don’t expect them to lay a Cleveland-like letdown egg, but I think this is a tough overall spot. But, hey, I’ve been wrong many, many, many, many times before.

Insiders' Picks - Showtime Sports
Cris Collinsworth and Warren Sapp both take the Bears; Phil Simms abstains.



Greg Cote's Week 14 NFL selections - Greg Cote - MiamiHerald.com

NFL Game of the Week
Upset of the Week
Line: NE by 3 Cote's pick: CHI 20-17
``AAWWK!'' bellows the Upset Bird. ``Monster of the Midwaaawwwk!'' The men of pretty-boy Tom Brady have scored 30-plus points with zero turnovers in four consecutive games -- a first in NFL history. What better place for such a streak to end, though, than at The Soldier and against arguably the league's best defense? Chitown will see this as their statement game to include the under-regarded Bears in the title contender talk, while Patriots won't be able to match the emotion of their Monday dismantling of Jets. Teams have combined for nine wins in a row; this one ought to be in prime time. ``Valid point,'' notes U-Bird, the professorial pipe clamped in his beak juxtaposed with the serendipity of a Santa hat. ``Time for these Bears to hit Brady so hard his toupee flies off. Toupaawwk! Tom Braawwk!''

News staff selections: Week 14 - Bills & NFL - The Buffalo News

New England at Chicago (+3)
(Picks are against the spread)
Gaughan: Chicago
Wilson: New England
Sullivan: New England
DiCesare: New England (best bet)
Northrop: Chicago
McKissic: Chicago

Week 14 N.F.L. Matchups - Mike Tanier - NYTimes.com

Line: Patriots by 3

The thunderclap that shook the skies at about 9:30 p.m. last Monday was a message from the Patriots. They are back, and better than ever, thanks in part to one of the best draft classes in recent memory. The rookie cornerback Devin McCourty has six interceptions; linebacker Brandon Spikes has 61 tackles and assists. Tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski have combined for 65 catches and 10 touchdowns. Even punter Zoltan Mesko has been a factor — if you do not think mistake-free punting by a rookie is important, Tom Coughlin wants a word with you. All of the new faces are keeping Tom Brady young, which explains (but does not justify) the Bieberization of his hair. The Patriots plan to hold onto their Team of the Decade title a little while longer, or maybe earn a second one.

The Bears have achieved considerable success despite their mediocrity. Statistically, they are a .500 team: in a fluke of symmetry, they have both gained and allowed exactly 3,604 yards this season. Their defense produces a lot of turnovers and goal-line stops, but their offensive line stumbles around like kindergartners performing “The Nutcracker.” Their résumé is filled with close wins against third-string quarterbacks, though their win against the Eagles was impressive, and many playoff runs start with a few lucky breaks against bad opponents.

The Bears can silence doubters by beating the Patriots, but they are more likely to receive a healthy dose of reality. They can take solace because the Jets survived — barely — with their playoff hopes intact. Pick: Patriots (-3)

NFL Staff Picks - New York Daily News
Against a spread of Pats -3, seven out of eight take the Pats; only Gary Myers picks the Bears.
NFL Week 14 Bettor's Guide: Dolphins, Giants, Browns, Packers and Patriots look like winners - NY Daily News

PATRIOTS at BEARS
4:15 p.m.; Patriots by 3, over/under 41
BRENNAN’S BEAUTIES: Remember last week when the Patriots were supposed to be intimidated by the league’s fourth-ranked scoring defense? Well we all know how that turned out. Now the Pats get a crack at the Bears’ third-ranked scoring defense. And we’re kind of expecting a pretty similar outcome. Tom Brady is coming off back-to-back games in which he’s thrown four TDs without an INT, and he has thrown 17 TD passes since his last pick. The Pats are first in the league in scoring (31.6 ppg.) and have reached the 30-point mark in their last four games — all wins. One more thing: New England has won 20 of its last 21 against NFC teams.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Pats and the over.

Gridiron Guide: NFL Picks for Week 14 - Newsday

PATRIOTS (10-2) at BEARS (9-3)
Line: Patriots by 3
Over/Under: 41, 4:15 p.m.
The Peyton Manning-Tom Brady debate is a great one, but lately, it's not even close. Brady might go down as the best QB to ever play the game, and he sure looked like that Monday night. The Patriots are an AFC-best 8-4 ATS. Plus, Bears LB Brian Urlacher gave the Pats some bulletin board material when he told the Chicago Tribune: "I feel like we're the best team [in the NFL], period." I don't think so. Exclamation point.
The pick: Patriots

 

[Betterthanmost]

ESPN's Patriots-Bears prediction roundup - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

only one iam worried about is schefter. when he has picked against the pats he has been right for some weird reason

BS. He got ******* lucky on the Browns game, he picked the Charges, Steelers, Dolphins.
Basically, he tries to be a contrarian among the experts, he has the worse losses record.

 

[PatsDeb]

Here's Bill Simmons from ESPN, Page 2, who's usually a Pats Homer:

Bill Simmons: NFL Week 14 picks - ESPN

BEARS (+3) over Patriots
The 9-3 Bears need to get to 12-4 and a 2-seed to qualify for "creeper" status. Don't sleep on them Sunday. Haven't we been here before? A contender looks unstoppable on Monday night at home, everyone spends the next few days fawning over them, and meanwhile, they have a scary road game looming six days later against an underrated contender that matches up with them pretty well.



Put it this way: If the Patriots win this one, we can officially say they're peaking better than the 2007 Pats did. The 2007 offense peaked from Week 1 to Week 11 (41 points a game), then faded a little down the stretch (29.7 points a game) when the weather turned, the pressure mounted and defenses realized that they couldn't really run the ball. The 2010 Pats just dropped 160 points in their past four games (two of them against the two best AFC teams) and are suddenly pushing the 2007 Pats as the best offense footballoutsiders.com has EVER measured. The big differences: They can run the ball better, they aren't as reliant on big plays from one receiver and their screens in the two-tight end offense (whether it's a running back or a receiver catching the ball) have been absolutely devastating. Teams are terrified to blitz them now because they can unleash one of those screens at any time. On the flip side, their defense isn't as good as the 2007 crew. Not even close. We'll know more after Sunday.

 

[Ron Sellers]

NFL Picks - Week 14: Pats, Falcons, Steelers Down the Stretch - BetUS - Charles Jay

New England -3
Chicago +3
Total 40.5

When you looked at the Patriots on Monday night, they looked like a team no one could ever beat. i don't know how many better MVP candidates there are than Tom Brady (27 TD's, four INT's), but I would venture to say not that many. This week, however, they face not a Jets offense that is prone to total collapse at times, but a Bear attack that has really developed some balance, with Matt Forte running juts well enough to allow Jay Cutler to find the receivers who are catching on to Mike Martz's system. Jay Cutler, who was under siege earlier in the season, is still getting sacked a bit (four times in each of the last two games), but he has also chalked up quarterback ratings of 146.2 and 117 in the last two weeks. And the Bears defense has allowed 90 less yards per game than has New England. Of course, Brady is a great equalizer of sorts, and if you look at his stats you'll see that he has 13 TD's and just two interceptions on the road. But we're looking at snow and high winds on Sunday, and that makes the Chicago stop unit even more important.

NFL PICKS - WEEK 14: CHICAGO +3

NFL Week 14 Picks - The Daily Fix - Wall Street Journal

New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears
David Roth: New England
Nando DiFino: Bears
AccuScore: New England

Is it silly to suggest that the Patriots, who have been steamrolling opponents in their last two games, would hit an unexpected roadblock against a lightly-regarded Bears team? I don’t think so. It happens all the time in the NFL—just when you think a team is gaining momentum and is unstoppable, they stutter-step. Picking the Bears here is essentially saying they’re going to win, and that’s not such a stretch, considering that the Patriots lost to Cleveland this season, and only beat the Colts, Ravens and Chargers by three points each. They have vulnerabilities. It’s just a matter of which team might expose them. It could be the Bears this week. – NDF

Against the Spread: 2010 NFL Picks: Week 14 - TheStreet

Secondly, weather becomes a bigger factor in games starting this week. The Sunday matchup between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots is expected to be played in snowy conditions with severe winds. Similarly, weekend games in New Jersey, Carolina, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh will be played in tough weather conditions.

"The wind is of much great significance," says Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site PredictionMachine.com. His Prediction Machine is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread.

"It's about how the wind impacts the passing game. It's a much bigger impact than precipitation. I wouldn't say that the lines that we're looking at greatly account for weather. But once people wake up Sunday morning and they see the stadium video with snow, it all changes. You need to get in ahead of time and take advantage of it now."

When it comes to those tough weather conditions, the margin of victory typically shrinks. Bessire notes that bad weather typically leads to lower scoring games, "and you can expect it will be a closer game as well."

Against the Spread: 2010 NFL Picks: Week 14 - TheStreet - Robert Holmes

Take your pick with this game: Classic letdown after a Monday night, classic letdown after a blowout victory over a hated rival, classic letdown on the road after a big home win, or classic letdown against an opponent no one believes in.

At 9-3, it seems like no one believes in the potential of the Bears. But some of those victories have come against tough opponents, like the Packers and Eagles. The offense has been more consistent in running the ball and the turnovers have been few over the last five weeks.

Then there is the Patriots, coming off a huge 45-3 victory against the Jets Monday night. But I've already laid out the arguments against a Pats win against the spread. It was a huge win against New York at home, and now New England has one less day to prepare and travel to Chicago to play a team that people are underestimating. Snow is in the forecast, but that won't stop Tom Brady and the Patriots, who destroyed the Titans last season in a blizzard.

Bessire's Take: "Weather could be a serious concern here. We're watching this game closely. While both teams prefer to pass, they are also fairly well suited to play in cold, wind and/or snowstorm. That being said, the weather event alone could/should keep this game close throughout -- it already looked like a pretty close game by the numbers. As an aside, don't believe anyone who tells you that the Patriots have the worst pass defense in the NFL. That person is likely looking at the Patriots aggregate passing yards allowed, which is an inefficient way to measure team's success. The Patriots get ahead. Teams pass. Boom. That being said, the Bears still have the advantage in both matchups of the passing game. According to our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, New England ranks third in the NFL in passing, but Chicago ranks first against the pass. The Bears rank ninth in passing. New England is still not great, ranking 21st against the pass. We expect the Patriots to win, but just slightly more often than not (55.4% of the time) and that's enough to give us a mild lean towards Chicago against a 3-point line. With a high likelihood of a push in this close game, a push as a safety net on that pick is acceptable."

Bookmaker.com Take: "The Pats have one less day to prepare after the whipping they gave to the Jets and the smart money doesn't seem to mind. The Pat opened a 2.5-point favorite and that was quickly pushed to 3 by the wise guys and the public. Shoppers and arbitrage players will see 3.5 however it should close 3 with a big lean to New England."

The Pick: Bears +3. The public is going to love New England after that big Monday Night win against the Jets. Don't get me wrong. I love the Patriots. They're my rooting interest. But the Chicago defense is great at stopping running backs. With high winds and snow in the forecast, it's going to come down to the running games. Chicago may not win, but it feels like a 23-21 game.

LI Press Picks NFL Week 14 | Long Island Press | John Otano

Don’t look now but the equipment managers in Foxborough are still picking up pieces of the Jets after the Patriots reduced the trash-talking Jets to just trash. The 45-3 drubbing was the worst loss of the Rex Ryan regime, and the fifth largest blowout victory in New England Patriots history.

The Jets talked a big game but the Patriots came out on Monday Night Football and showed the world how much talk is worth in the NFL: nothing. Bill Belichick and the Patriots exemplified their supreme ability to manage and author a strategy that was fully prepared for whatever Ryan and the Jets threw at them.

Following the victory, Tom Brady filed one of the more memorable quotes of the NFL season that your LIPressPicks guru is taking heart for Week 14.

“We don’t listen to the hype,” Brady said. “I don’t think we ever have. We really take after our coach [Bill Belichick], and he says, “When you win, say little. When you lose, say less.”

In the spirit of saying less and knowing more, here are my picks for Week 14 in the NFL.

Percentages taken from fan voting on LI Press Picks Football Pool. Picks indicated in bold.

New England (10-2) 76% picked @ Chicago (9-3) 24% picked

After the Patriots’ dominant win against the Jets last week, I’m hard pressed to go against a red-hot Patriots team even on the road against an equally hot Bears team. In the last seven games, Tom Brady has thrown for 260.9 yards per game with 17 touchdowns and no interceptions. All hail the MVP.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Five Questions With The New England Sports Network's Jeff Howe - Windy City Gridiron

Jeff Howe, NESN: I think it's going to be an ugly game, but I can see the Patriots pulling it out. Even though it sounds like Jay Cutler is playing well,I just can't imagine him beating Tom Brady in an important December game. Plus, Brady has been absolutely on fire lately, and I can see the Patriots pulling off a hard-fought, 21-17 win.

Brian Urlacher, Julius Peppers Could Cause Nightmares for Tom Brady's Offense - Across Enemy Lines - NESN.com

Kevin Hand, Windy City Gridiron: The prediction is tough, in that I'm not 100 percent sure what the weather is going to do. Snow and wind are in the forecast, which will largely work to take the dynamic play away from both teams. Overall, I see a pretty hotly contested game, and I'm thinking it ends up somewhere along the realm of 24-21 Bears. It's an important home game for the Bears, and I think they're going to come out swinging.

Chicago Tough Weekend Picks (12/11-12/12) - Chicago Tough

New England at Chicago (+3)
Everybody knows, I never pick the Bears in big games. But the stats are odd here...The Patriots are 31st in defense giving up yards per game and yards passing. They've only recorded 21 sacks all season. Everybody keeps talking about Tom Brady this, Tom Brady

Trust me...the man will come through. Why do you think I'm smiling?
that...the fact of the matter is that the Jay Cutler should be the one with the field day on Sunday. Chicago 23, New England 20 (OT) (Which of course means a Bears loss.)

NFL Picks, Week 14 by Foss Forward | Sara Foss | Schenectady Daily Gazette

NEW ENGLAND at Chicago — Watching the Patriots eviscerate Team Blowhard was one of the highlights of the week. I watched the game with my landlord, who informed me that she would be cheering for the Jets. But aside from a couple Tom Brady sacks, Team Blowhard didn’t give her much to cheer for. For me, though, the game was an embarrassment of riches. Can the Pats do the same thing to Chicago? Who knows. But I see no reason to pick against them.

timestranscript.com - Patriots will handle Bears - Breaking News, New Brunswick, Canada

New England at Chicago: Take New England. The Bears' defence has thwarted some of the best offences in the league this year, including the Packers and Cowboys. But they haven't faced anything yet like the high-powered New England offence (just ask the Jets).

 

[jah]

Heh, it's funny that an analyst would have the Bears winning 30-27 on a last-second FG. A few days ago, I watched the CPU play itself on Madden 08 for the PC with updated rosters (Pats@Chicago with the weather minus snow) and that's exactly what happened.

It was actually a pretty entertaining finish: I was playing with 12 minute quarters, and with 5 minutes left, the Pats were down 20-17. They drove down to score a TD and make it 24-20. Then Olsen fumbled, and Pats got stopped extremely deep in the red zone. They still got a FG, so it was 27-20 Pats. Cutler somehow drives the Bears down and gets the game-tying TD with 1 minute left. 27-27. Brady starts throwing hail marys and OF COURSE one of them is picked off and run back to the Patriots' 15. Last second FG wins it for the Bears: 30-27.

Let's hope that doesn't happen in real life. It was a pretty ugly game, especially since the Pats lost. Brady had 3 or 4 picks :bricks:

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

I was playing with 12 minute quarters,
Let's hope that doesn't happen in real life.

Yup. But who knows maybe Godell would do that 12 min quarters and an extra 3 mins of commercials.

 

[jah]

Yup. But who knows maybe Godell would do that 12 min quarters and an extra 3 mins of commercials.

As long as they're Shake Weight commercials...

I watched the CPU play itself again except with snow and a more accurate Bears roster. Pats won 16-13, but Brady only goes 21-41 with 1 TD and 2 INTs. BJGE gets shut down, and Forte goes absolutely insane on our defense.