Jets vs. Patriots: Breakdown/Analysis

[Patspsycho]

In analyzing this game, I wanted to ask the question of how we were able to blow out the Jets in the marquee matchup. Was it a one time freak thing? Or is it a sign of just how good the team is?

Also I wanted to isolate the key factors in the blowout. Was it a result of coaching? A result of game-planning? How much of it was psychological? How much of it was talent?

I think that what separates BB from Ryan is mostly the wide gap in their experiences. In 36 years of coaching, it is fair to assume that BB has taken a look at every philosophy, every strategy that is out there, along with picking up a big bag of tricks. So who he is, the way he is, and how he coaches has been distilled from those many long years he spent climbing up the NFL hierarchy (very slowly, I might add), and along the way he has coached many many players, so he knows what works and what doesn't work.

So the one thing that I believe is most manifest about BB's brilliance is his simplicity. He keeps things simple. He will throw many fronts and looks, but in essence, if you look at it long enough, you will realize that his principles are simple- he has a distilled system. For example, when we got whacked two years ago by the Wildcat in Miami, the panic was widespread. How do we stop such a thing? The answers were complex, the strategy was complicated. Yet when the 2nd game came around, when we played them again in Foxboro, the answer in essence boiled down to something simple: gap discipline. His answer to complex issues are simple, and therein lies his brilliance, in my belief.

If you take a look at this game, I think the fatal flaw in Ryan's gameplan was that he outsmarted himself. He thought too much, and he schemed too much. With Moss gone, there is no obvious 'star' receiver, and yet that is what Revis is there for. With no 'star,' where do you put Revis? Ryan's answer was to put him all over the field on different assignments, which was tomfoolery (and something he won't repeat). I think when he watches this game again, he will have realized that he should have left Revis on Welker and Cromartie on Branch. You won't shut them down and you won't shut the offense down, but at least you take the top two options away or at least force a checkdown. Putting Revis all over the field is tantamount to outguessing a slot machine, because there are so many combinations.

 

[SVN]

both bruschi today and greg bedard of the globe felt that the jets really made a mistake coming out in the no huddle on the road and putting the game in sanchez's hands early on instead of running the ball and slowing the game down.
Also, i wish someone talked about this in the media - For all the bravado ryan shows, he was scared to go for it on 4th down in the first drive. We saw schottenheimer pleading to for it but ryan shied away initially to try and win it via challenge then eventually gave in to go for it. Lots of people have questioned why he challenged when he went for it but no one has really offered an opinion. It really went downhill from there.
On defense, they tried to play coverage like in the 2nd half of game 1 and pats were ready. The brought the DB's pressures a little late which still gave pats trouble but they were in a rhythm by then and once they got the 3rd and 22 for 19yards it really snowballed from there.

Another thing which peter king pointed out on ESPN radio-sanchez didnt look like a northeast QB. he said he saw him in the tunnel and he felt he looked cold and uncomfortable. Something worth watching as the season winds down.

 

[Patspsycho]

pats 1st and 10, 2 x 2, Welker flex out to stack under Branch, Woodhead to slot, Revis in press on Tate. Cromartie reacts to stack by going zone, and Pool takes the under man.

Result: Welker runs the low drag, 8 yard completion.

Pats 2nd and 2: 2 x 2, Ace (2 WR 2 TE 1 RB) off I formation, Welker/Branch split wide, Revis in press on Welker, Cromartie in press on Branch. Jets are not aligned in run-stop; they are thinking pass or right side bounce out. Welker motions inside. Mankins motions to trap, but stones blitz, Crumpler is the kick out block and "finishes the trapping" and clears B gap for BJGE. Light and Connolly pull strongside 2nd level blocks.

Result: 13 yard run by BJGE.

Pats 1st and 10: only Branch is split out wide. Cromartie is in press on him. This is a rare instance where all 3 TEs are on the field aligned strongside on the line and they come inside for the block. Revis is forced to play zone because nobody is split out wide.

Result: 5 yard run by BJGE.

(penalty)

2nd and 6 on Pats 45. Brady in shotgun, Woodhead off. 2 x 2 Posse (3 WR) Tate and Branch split wide, Welker in slot. Box is stacked and Eric Smith rolled up to spy on Woodhead. It is interesting to watch what Welker does in this series- he shades Revis to the outside and renders him completely useless, while Woodhead completes a 11 yard draw through the B gap, just squeezing through a hole the size of a donut.

Result: 11 yard draw by Woodhead

1st and 10 on Jets 45, 2 x 2 in Ace again. Jets in cover 1 over and under (single high safety/MLB in robber) Welker motions into wheel route and Revis loses press on him. Strongside blitz is stoned. Brady playactions, throws a fake look at Branch, fakes MOFO, and comes back to Branch who does a hook route. What this does is freezes Poole who jumps up at the last minute and is not able to bat down the pass.

Result: 22 yard completion to Branch

1st and 10 on Jets 23: 2 x 2 Ace. What looks like a Brady/BJGE miscommunication (Brady tries to hand off strongside, and BJGE comes up weakside, forcing Brady to throw the ball away) is in fact a mistake by Brady because if you look at the line, they are pulling weakside, and Crumpler is coming inside for the block, and ignoring the linebacker (Thomas) lined up on top of him. If this were a strongside run/bounceout, Crumpler would have blocked Thomas to the outside.

This is where the drive sputters out, but it is worth noticing that the tone of the game is pretty much set. The Jets are just being outmaneuvered and out-strategized by the dizzying combination of personnel the Pats are putting on the field, and where they are aligned. If you note the description of the above downs, you realize that Revis is completely useless in half of them, and Cromartie is in a mismatch with Branch who is a smaller, shifty receiver. This is a new offense to them- it is continually changing combinations in both alignment, motion, and position. In other words, this is like trying to outguess 3 slot machines side to side.

 

[SVN]

pats 1st and 10, 2 x 2, Welker flex out to stack under Branch, Woodhead to slot, Revis in press on Tate. Cromartie reacts to stack by going zone, and Pool takes the under man.

Result: Welker runs the low drag, 8 yard completion.

Pats 2nd and 2: 2 x 2, Ace (2 WR 2 TE 1 RB) off I formation, Welker/Branch split wide, Revis in press on Welker, Cromartie in press on Branch. Jets are not aligned in run-stop; they are thinking pass or right side bounce out. Welker motions inside. Mankins motions to trap, but stones blitz, Crumpler is the kick out block and "finishes the trapping" and clears B gap for BJGE. Light and Connolly pull strongside 2nd level blocks.

Result: 13 yard run by BJGE.

Pats 1st and 10: only Branch is split out wide. Cromartie is in press on him. This is a rare instance where all 3 TEs are on the field aligned strongside on the line and they come inside for the block. Revis is forced to play zone because nobody is split out wide.

Result: 5 yard run by BJGE.

(penalty)

2nd and 6 on Pats 45. Brady in shotgun, Woodhead off. 2 x 2 Posse (3 WR) Tate and Branch split wide, Welker in slot. Box is stacked and Eric Smith rolled up to spy on Woodhead. It is interesting to watch what Welker does in this series- he shades Revis to the outside and renders him completely useless, while Woodhead completes a 11 yard draw through the B gap, just squeezing through a hole the size of a donut.

Result: 11 yard draw by Woodhead

1st and 10 on Jets 45, 2 x 2 in Ace again. Welker motions into wheel route and Revis loses press on him. Strongside blitz is stoned. Brady playactions, throws a fake look at Branch, fakes MOFO, and comes back to Branch who does a hook route. What this does is freezes Poole who jumps up at the last minute and is not able to bat down the pass.

Result: 22 yard completion to Branch

1st and 10 on Jets 23: 2 x 2 Ace. What looks like a Brady/BJGE miscommunication (Brady tries to hand off strongside, and BJGE comes up weakside, forcing Brady to throw the ball away) is in fact a mistake by Brady because if you look at the line, they are pulling weakside, and Crumpler is coming inside for the block, and ignoring the linebacker (Thomas) lined up on top of him. If this were a strongside run/bounceout, Crumpler would have blocked Thomas to the outside.

This is where the drive sputters out, but it is worth noticing that the tone of the game is pretty much set. The Jets are just being outmaneuvered and out-strategized by the dizzying combination of personnel the Pats are putting on the field, and where they are aligned. If you note the description of the above downs, you realize that Revis is completely useless in half of them, and Cromartie is in a mismatch with Branch who is a smaller, shifty receiver. This is a new offense to them- it is continually changing combinations in both alignment, motion, and position. In other words, this is like trying to outguess 3 slot machines side to side.

great stuff! i guess gruden wasnt doing his usual hyperbole when he said even he couldnt keep up with the pats substitutions

 

[Joker]

you really ARE a Pats psycho...you just explained to me what I SAW in person...great job, brother...just outstanding

 

[Patspsycho]

It is worth noting that on the 3rd and 10, Jets were in their dime, and if Connolly hadn't been overpowered so easily, it is reasonable to assume that Branch would have had the first down because Coleman had bad leverage on him. If you take a look at the play, you see that despite the dime, a few of our receivers were open. That to me is an embarrassment of riches.

 

[Patspsycho]

And if that wasn't bad enough, guess what is coming up on defense. More on this coming tomorrow, I have to cut out for an 8:30 a.m. meeting.

All input, comments, and observations welcomed. Criticism too, as long as they are intelligent and stick to football. I hope we will get input from posters who have considerable football knowledge- Jays52, BOR, Unoriginal, AndyJohnson, and hopefully Pats1 although I have not seen him post in a long time.

 

[SVN]

It is worth noting that on the 3rd and 10, Jets were in their dime, and if Connolly hadn't been overpowered so easily, it is reasonable to assume that Branch would have had the first down because Coleman had bad leverage on him. If you take a look at the play, you see that despite the dime, a few of our receivers were open. That to me is an embarrassment of riches.

i think the return of welker to close to full strength and now playing without a brace is an underrated story which hasnt been talked about a lot

 

[sbpatfan]

Defensive snaps: Butler back on radar - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

CB Kyle Arrington -- 65 of 65
S Brandon Meriweather -- 64 of 65
CB Devin McCourty -- 62 of 65
CB Darius Butler -- 42 of 65
S James Sanders -- 36 of 65
S Jarrad Page -- 28 of 65
S Patrick Chung -- 26 of 65

I thought the defensive snaps for the secondary was pretty interesting. In the past it seemed like they preferred running the nickel with three safeties / two corners. But this game seemed to be the opposite. And does anyone know when Page was substituting in? Was it all game or just near the end there?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

And if that wasn't bad enough, guess what is coming up on defense. More on this coming tomorrow, I have to cut out for an 8:30 a.m. meeting.

All input, comments, and observations welcomed. Criticism too, as long as they are intelligent and stick to football. I hope we will get input from posters who have considerable football knowledge- Jays52, BOR, Unoriginal, AndyJohnson, and hopefully Pats1 although I have not seen him post in a long time.

Pats1 took a job as an exotic dancer and is busy, busy, busy (Who knew Victoria, Victor [as opposed to Victor, Victoria] would be so popular on the Chippendale circuit? :confused2: ). I'll see what I can do today with some free time.

Just to irritate those posters who can't abide media members who actually make an effort to report on football (as opposed to gossip and scandal) here's Mike Rodak's observations:
Picked-up pieces from 1st quarter review
Picked-up pieces from 2nd quarter review
Picked-up pieces from 2nd half review

And from Reiss, some details:
Offensive snaps: Gronk leads way
Positional groupings: Diversity & versatility
Defensive snaps: Butler back on radar

 

[BradyManny]

Really great stuff patspyscho.

I was curious whose fault it was on the Brady/BJGE play. Your breakdown makes sense, though I will say I had originally pegged BJGE for the blame since it looks like he's thinking pass-protect all the way, and Crump appears to wave at him to do something mid-play. Now, that would just seem an improvisation on Crump to salvage the broken play.

As for the drive breaking down there - on the next play Brady & Branch just barely miss a connection which would've put them on the 4 yard line with 1st and goal, so they almost managed to salvage it. Nonetheless, mental errors/penalties have been the thing that have really stopped us this year.

On defense, I continue to be impressed by Cunningham. I'm only two drives in on D re-watching, but I don't know how profootballfocus.com could give him such a negative grade unless he really has some epic fails the rest of the game. (Actually, I do know, and it's that the site is pretty weak, but it is the only site breaking down to that level, at least.) He is strong against the run. I think he's our best all-around OLB already at this point.

 

[rojo8401]

both bruschi today and greg bedard of the globe felt that the jets really made a mistake coming out in the no huddle on the road and putting the game in sanchez's hands early on instead of running the ball and slowing the game down.
Also, i wish someone talked about this in the media - For all the bravado ryan shows, he was scared to go for it on 4th down in the first drive. We saw schottenheimer pleading to for it but ryan shied away initially to try and win it via challenge then eventually gave in to go for it. Lots of people have questioned why he challenged when he went for it but no one has really offered an opinion. It really went downhill from there.
On defense, they tried to play coverage like in the 2nd half of game 1 and pats were ready. The brought the DB's pressures a little late which still gave pats trouble but they were in a rhythm by then and once they got the 3rd and 22 for 19yards it really snowballed from there.

Another thing which peter king pointed out on ESPN radio-sanchez didnt look like a northeast QB. he said he saw him in the tunnel and he felt he looked cold and uncomfortable. Something worth watching as the season winds down.

Don't discount the cold factor. I grew up in Mass and then moved to So Cal 13 years ago. Whenever I come back for Christmas I literally freak out when I step off the plane. I need like 5 sweaters and a parka. It seems colder than when I was a kid but I know it's not.

Hell, I survived the blizzard of '78 and even had fun digging out our front door. Sanchez is just going to have to grow a northeastern layer of winter fat and get used to it.

It will be 85 degrees here this weekend. I kid you not.

 

[Patspsycho]

On defense, we come out in the 24 nickel pass D (Guyton is the off-mike). Butler in the slot as the nickelback. This is an interesting approach- it essentially means we came out daring them to run, and that is the opposite of what one would think, because it was generally assumed that we would come out to stop the run and thereby place all the pressure on Sanchez.

But is it?

If you think about it carefully, and one poster pointed it out (either DaBruinz or AndyJohnson) that the Jets run game has in fact been declining in the 2nd half of the season. So in that regard, it was a clever move.

A few post-game observations had the blame placed on the fact that the Jets went no-huddle, or tried to pass too much. The Jets called a good mix on this drive, so the pass theory doesn't hold muster.. however a good argument could be made that going no-huddle only added to the stress for Sanchez.. instead of trying to match our tempo, the Jets should have slowed down the game. That would have made it easier for Sanchez to get settled in and get a rhythm going, but he never gets in a rhythm on either this or the next drive, and by then, they are in a 17-0 hole.

However, their flaw was in both the inexperience of Sanchez, the playcalling, and on the part of Rex Ryan- first let's break this down.

I want to point out the one wrinkle we put in that was the game-changer, the massive line motion. After Mangold assigns protection and right when Sanchez gets into the count, the whole DL motions and shifts, and the backers change their alignments. This isn't really a problem for the Jets OL because it's not too hard to reassign protection (strongside/weakside), but you can see that this gets into Sanchez's head. He's lost any ability to identify potential blitzers (LT isn't told what to do,doesn't help chip, and only releases to the middle where he is easily picked up by Mayo who is in cover 1 under), can only identify the mike, and doesn't know what is coming (four man rush) and does a 3 step drop.

See the difference between the two stills: Wilfork and Warren change tech (towards strongside). Mayo in 2 point on the line drops back and TBC motions to two point 5 tech on the line, and when Sanchez restarts his count, Guyton walks in as the new 5 tech, and TBC drops to 3 point outside shade 5 tech.

You can tell the wheels are turning in Sanchez's head as he throws off his back heels (the ball sails).

 

[Patspsycho]

What this does is burn off valuable seconds off the clock.

On the rest of the downs, an experienced QB would have gone to a shorter snap count to stop or disrupt this motioning, but Sanchez doesn't.

One thing I want to do is point out that what I love about the wrinkles we put in the game- we don't just pull it on every snap (that would give them plenty of chances to adapt), we just pull it off a minimum number of times- just enough to throw doubt in Sanchez's mind.

On the big run by LT in this first series- we can see that it hurts when we don't use Chung as the nickelback since he is a great run tackler. I am wondering if his low number of reps has something to do with his recovery from that knee injury?

 

[Patspsycho]

Next down, we are in the dime with Chung as the dimeback. Sanchez's first read is denied (Holmes). Sanchez takes too long to checkdown (LT releases underneath) and by that time Wilfork is in his face, and he throws the ball away.

This drive, every one of Sanchez's first read was taken away.

 

[BradyManny]

On the big run by LT in this first series- we can see that it hurts when we don't use Chung as the nickelback since he is a great run tackler. I am wondering if his low number of reps has something to do with his recovery from that knee injury?

More great stuff, thanks for taking the time.

Re: Chung - Reiss and others speculated its the injury, but if you follow along the thinking of your post above, and the Pats were really aiming to stop the pass and dare them to run, then Butler makes sense as the nickel.

I imagine - regardless of the reason, since Chung's injury isn't likely to get better by Sunday anyway, and b/c Hester demands a quicker play - we see Butler in the slot again this week. Just my .02.

 

[IllegalContact]

I think chung has been banged up for awhile, so when the lead was safe, they wanted to get page a bunch of time. the pats now have 4 safeties they aren't scared to put out there: chung, meriweather, sanders, page....page was no slouch in KC......I think he could be quite valuable down the stretch if gets the PT now......he has the size we've been missing back there for awhile

 

[Patspsycho]

More great stuff, thanks for taking the time.

Re: Chung - Reiss and others speculated its the injury, but if you follow along the thinking of your post above, and the Pats were really aiming to stop the pass and dare them to run, then Butler makes sense as the nickel.

I imagine - regardless of the reason, since Chung's injury isn't likely to get better by Sunday anyway, and b/c Hester demands a quicker play - we see Butler in the slot again this week. Just my .02.

That is a good point- you are correct.

 

[Patspsycho]

3rd and 7 on the 2nd Pats drive, their 46. Again we see Ryan being too clever and outthinking himself. In the still below you see Jets in their nickel and Coleman is on soft coverage of Welker in the slot, but Revis is in a cover 2 scheme (top of still on the yellow line) to pick up Hernandez off the line and tag him on the underneath route. Jets fake blitz, rush only 3, drop the rest in man coverage with a single high safety and Harris in robber.

Guess who has the completion for the crucial down? Welker

Every time Welker has Coleman on him, it is a mismatch.

 

[Patspsycho]

Jets were caught by surprise by the 9 route Gronk ran. Even though they knew it was a pass play and didn't bite on the PA, the FS, Poole, doesn't even roll over to Gronk's side until much too late and the nearest help is Lowery, the LCB. Smith is badly overmatched and commits the DPI.