New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer rating

[JustEndTheSeason]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

Awesome analysis, but I have one question:

Manning is basically tied with Brady in career passer rating. If that is so, why does Brady have a better passer rating in all the other aspects you mentioned? How can they have equal passer ratings if Manning is worse in all those conditions you mentioned?

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

With Brady having better numbers both indoors and outdoors compared to Manning, shouldn't Brady have the higher overall passer rating?

Example numbers, and doing a straight average (which is not how it would actually be done and is only being used for the example): 200/50

If Manning's played 200 games indoors and 50 outdoors, he'd have:
200 * 98.6
50 * 90.7

If Brady's played 50 games indoors and 200 outdoors, he would have:
50 * 103.1
200 * 93.8


So, even though Brady's numbers are higher for both when separate, an averaging of the numbers would give Manning a higher result:

Manning: (200 * 98.6 + 50 * 90.7) /250 = 97.02
Brady: 50 * 103.1 (5155) + 200 * 93.8 (18760)/250 = 95.66

 

[Prefect]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

Not trying to nitpick ( I agree with your premise) but how can Manning have a higher overall passer rating if Brady has a higher rating indoors and a higher rating outside?

Say Manning played 999 games indoors and 1 game outdoors. Then his average QB rating would essentially be his indoor rating of 98.6

Then say Brady played 999 games outdoors and 1 game indoors. His average QB rating would then essentially be 93.8.

It isn't that extreme obviously, but Manning's average is closer to the his indoor rating and Brady's average is closer to his outdoor rating.

 

[Patsfan_22]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

Because Manning plays more games indoors than Brady. Therefore his rating, whilst not higher than Brady's is better than Brady's outdoor rating.

 

[Yehoodi]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

I have always said this, that is the one reason why manning has better overall numbers is because he plays more games in a venue in which they both excell. . . . i have tried to convince colts fans of this, but they just tell me domes don't matter

Glad to see TB is closing in on PM career passer rating . . .

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

Example numbers, and doing a straight average (which is not how it would actually be done and is only being used for the example): 200/50

Got it, thanks.... Sometimes what should be obvious, isn't...especially after a long day at work...
I wonder if someone would flip the numbers and calculate what Brady's rating would be if he played the proportion of games indoors that Peyton has played....

 

[patsfan13]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

hmm, i would, but i cant

Brady has 3 sb's, Montana has 4, montana has never lost in a SB

if Brady ties Montana w/ 4 sb's, they will be equal, when Brady gets #5, THEN he will be an unquestionable G.O.A.T. and only idiots would say otherwise

tharefore Brady needs two more sb's before his the GOAT

If Brady wins SB # 4 he will have surpassed Montana, Brady will have 5 conference championships to Montana's 4.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

........and to think Tom Brady has played outdoors in the Northeast while Paaaayton has played arena ball
Let's not even mention turnover in OC's and receivers.

 

[PromisedLand]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

If Brady wins SB # 4 he will have surpassed Montana, Brady will have 5 conference championships to Montana's 4.

I agree with that logic. I always found it curious that somehow losing a Super Bowl is considered worse than never getting there at all.

Example: there used to be a Super Bowl standings list on superbowl.com, the nfl's official Super Bowl site. It would list New Orleans, at 1-0, as in first place, compared to New England, at 3-3, much further back. Isn't it better to have made it to 6 Super Bowls, winning 3, than only to have made it to 1 in your history?

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

I agree with that logic. I always found it curious that somehow losing a Super Bowl is considered worse than never getting there at all.

Example: there used to be a Super Bowl standings list on superbowl.com, the nfl's official Super Bowl site. It would list New Orleans, at 1-0, as in first place, compared to New England, at 3-3, much further back. Isn't it better to have made it to 6 Super Bowls, winning 3, than only to have made it to 1 in your history?

Depends if you've ever won one. Would you rather be New Orleans and Tampa who each are 1-0 or Minnesota or Buffalo who are 0-8 combined???
If you've got a couple of Lombardi trophies, it doesn't sting as bad to lose one...(I'm lying, XLII still hurts but...)

 

[RodThePat]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

Now Colts fans will say passer rating is flawed statistic and you just have to watch Manning "getting it done" with adequate pass protection and below average targets to know he is better than Brady.

Now, where have I seen that argument before...

The only flaw with that is, without all world weapons and 7 seconds to throw he is struggling and his team isn't winning, which is why 01-06 Brady still is superior to 2010 Manning.

Bottom line: Brady has won more and now is at least statistically Manning's equal. The debate is over.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

I don't even buy the "woe is me" routine with his current targets being people that nobody in the NFL would want and that they are somehow cast-offs:

WR#1: Wayne-1st round pick in 2001
WR#2: Garcon-6th round pick
WR#3: White-Undrafted free agent
TE #1: Tamme-4th round pick
TE#2: Eldridge- 5th round pick
RB#1: Javarris James- Undrafted free agent
RB#2: Donald Brown-1st round pick

compare to:
WR#1: Welker-Undrafted free agent
WR#2: Deion Branch-2nd round pick in 2002
WR#3: Brandon Tate- 3rd round pick
TE#1: Rob Gronkowski- 2nd round pick
TE#2: Aaron Hernandez- 4th round pick
RB#1: BJGE-Undrafted free agent
RB#2: Danny Woodhead-Undrafted free agent


To make the analysis quantifiable, I'll call an undrafted free agent an 8th round pick.

Colts current skill position players average draft round: (1+6+8+4+5+8+1)/7 = 4.7
Patriots current skill position players average draft round: (8+2+3+2+4+8+8)/7 = 5

Now when you consider the players out but expected to return: Collie- 4th round pick would replace White, Joseph Addai- 1st round pick would replace James,

Colts skill position players average draft round: (1+6+4+4+5+1+1)/7 = 3.1

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

Let's see how gushing the NFL Network people are tonight over Peyton if he struggles at all against a very bad Titans team.

opcorn: