This Nut's view of playoff seedings

[Patsrock]

Playoff Scenarios

From what I have figured myself.

A win and your a least a wild card

Can still get in with a loss and

Oakland loss
Miami loss
Indy loss

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

From what I have figured myself.

A win and your a least a wild card

Can still get in with a loss and

Oakland loss
Miami loss
Indy loss
and a Miami loss

Nope....

All we need is a win; OR a Mia loss & a Raiders loss.

Worst record we could have is 10-6.

Best record Colts could have is 10-6. But we beat them on tiebreakers.
With Miami having one more loss their best record becomes 9-5.

 

[amazinPats]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

Why work on such negative hypotheticals? If we lost that many games to finish the season, I wouldn't want to be in the playoffs. Talk about looking at the bottom.....

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

Why work on such negative hypotheticals? If we lost that many games to finish the season, I wouldn't want to be in the playoffs. Talk about looking at the bottom.....

Obviously we want them to finish the season 14-2. But it is also nice to know what it will take to clinch a playoff spot for the 8th time in 10 years.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

Does 13-3 lock up a bye yet? Or could the Jets still kick us to the wild card if the loss is to a division team?

Seems to me that the most important results going forward are the 4 division games left by the Pats and Jets.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

Does 13-3 lock up a bye yet? Or could the Jets still kick us to the wild card if the loss is to a division team?

Seems to me that the most important results going forward are the 4 division games left by the Pats and Jets.

13-3 gets us the wildcard if the Jets win out and our loss is either to the Bills or Fish cause of division record.

13-3 probably gets us the Division title if our loss is to Packers or Bears on Strength of Victory but that is not certain.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

13-3 probably gets us the Division title if our loss is to Packers or Bears on Strength of Victory but that is not certain.

So, it looks to me as though our strength of victory and the Jets strength of victory, if both teams end up 13-3 would be nearly identical given that we have 14 common opponents. The noncommon opponents are Houston and Denver for the Jets and Indy and SD for the Patriots. Right now, Houston and Denver are 8-16 combined, but are effectively 9-17 combined since they have to play each other. So, the most wins the Jets' noncommon opponents can get to is 15. Indy and SD are 12-12 combined and don't play each other. So, it looks to me as thought he magic number for the Patriots, in terms of clinching Strength of Victory is 3. Any combinations of 3 losses by either the Broncos or Texans (not counting in the game against each other) plus wins by SD and Indy will lock up SOV for the Patriots.

So, it really seems as if victories by the Patriots against the Fish and the Bills, plus at least one more win, will lock up HFA.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

So, it looks to me as though our strength of victory and the Jets strength of victory, if both teams end up 13-3 would be nearly identical given that we have 14 common opponents. The noncommon opponents are Houston and Denver for the Jets and Indy and SD for the Patriots. Right now, Houston and Denver are 8-16 combined, but are effectively 9-17 combined since they have to play each other. So, the most wins the Jets' noncommon opponents can get to is 15. Indy and SD are 12-12 combined and don't play each other. So, it looks to me as thought he magic number for the Patriots, in terms of clinching Strength of Victory is 3. Any combinations of 3 losses by either the Broncos or Texans (not counting in the game against each other) plus wins by SD and Indy will lock up SOV for the Patriots.

So, it really seems as if victories by the Patriots against the Fish and the Bills, plus at least one more win, will lock up HFA.

Agreed on the conclusion, but note that you're looking at strength of schedule, not SOV, which is based on the records of the teams you beat. The Pats are even further ahead on SOV, because of wins over Balt, SD, and Indy vs. Houston, Denver, and Cleveland (20 wins to 13 now). If both teams finish 13-3 with the Pats losing to GB, that will stand as the SOV tie-breaker. Given the Hou-Den head-to-head, any combination of five other wins by Balt, SD, and Indy or losses by Hou, Den, and Cleveland would give the SOV tiebreaker to the Pats (with Balt at Hou next week to get things started). If the Pats lose to Chi (only) and the Jets win-out, the Chi-GB win differential would reduce the Pats' SOV advantage by a game or two, but they'd still be likely to get HFA.

As others have said, the key requirement is beating both Miami and Buffalo.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

Or could the Jets still kick us to the wild card if the loss is to a division team?

Jets won't beat the Steelers on the road and will be lucky to score a point.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

So, it looks to me as though our strength of victory and the Jets strength of victory, if both teams end up 13-3 would be nearly identical given that we have 14 common opponents. The noncommon opponents are Houston and Denver for the Jets and Indy and SD for the Patriots. Right now, Houston and Denver are 8-16 combined, but are effectively 9-17 combined since they have to play each other. So, the most wins the Jets' noncommon opponents can get to is 15. Indy and SD are 12-12 combined and don't play each other. So, it looks to me as thought he magic number for the Patriots, in terms of clinching Strength of Victory is 3. Any combinations of 3 losses by either the Broncos or Texans (not counting in the game against each other) plus wins by SD and Indy will lock up SOV for the Patriots.

So, it really seems as if victories by the Patriots against the Fish and the Bills, plus at least one more win, will lock up HFA.

Actually it is a bit more complex than that....

If the Pats lose to Packer the relevant teams will be

Pats: Ravens 8-4; Colts 6-6; Chargers 6-6
Jets: Browns 5-7; Bengals 2-10; Texans 5-7

So to win the tiebreaker Pats would need a magic number of 3 wins from Ravens, Colts or Chargers/loses from Browns, Bengals, Texans.

If the Pats lose to the Bears it becomes....

Pats: Ravens 8-4; Colts 6-6; Chargers 6-6; Packers 8-4
Jets: Browns 5-7; Bengals 2-10; Texans 5-7; Bears 9-3

requiring a magic number of 10 wins from Ravens cols, chargers, packers wins/browns, bengals, texans bears losses.

Where it this tie breaker could get really start to favor the Jets would be if the Pats lost to Dolphins and Bears and the Jets lost to the Bills.

So I stand by the idea we probably would win the tiebreaker, but it is not certain.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

Actually it is a bit more complex than that....

If the Pats lose to Packer the relevant teams will be

Pats: Ravens 8-4; Colts 6-6; Chargers 6-6
Jets: Browns 5-7; Bengals 2-10; Texans 5-7

Actually, it's the Broncos at 3-9, for the Jets. The Pats beat the Bengals in Game 1. Otherwise, that covers it.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

Actually, it's the Broncos at 3-9, for the Jets. The Pats beat the Bengals in Game 1. Otherwise, that covers it.

You're right. I don't know how I screwed that up.

 

[SVN]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

one adv the jets do have is that they have both remaining div games @home.

 

[elandadem]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

one adv the jets do have is that they have both remaining div games @home.

However, two of their three losses are at home. And Miami can only seem to win on the road.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

But all bets are off in Buffalo in January. Thankfully, they may have checked out by week 17.

 

[BTTA]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

But all bets are off in Buffalo in January. Thankfully, they may have checked out by week 17.

Hopefully, it is wrapped up by then and Hoyer plays the game.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Re: Playoff Scenarios

Jets won't beat the Steelers on the road and will be lucky to score a point.

This. I've been saying this for weeks, I cant see Jets going to Pitt and pulling off that upset, I just don't see it happening, could be wrong but I have a strong feeling thats an automatic loss for them.

As for us, I don't see any for sure losses. It is hard to play a very emotional Monday night game then go on the road to play a good team with a shortened week. I see this Bears game as our last hardest game on the shift. We have packers at home so that game is more favored for us, Bills and Fish.

But hey, we all thought we would lose to a game or 2 on our Pittsburgh, Indy, Detroit 3-game spree but we pulled them all out in a very short period of time. I have faith....

 

[SVN]

Playoff clinching scenarios Week 13

WhoSay - Rich Eisen

 

[PATSNUTme]

With the win on Monday, the #1 seed in the playoff's is closer. Here is how I think things will go. Our competitors for the #1 seed are the Steelers and Jest.

Now I"m not taking anything for granted adn don't normally look forward to this with 4 game to play, but this is how it should play out.

Jest: remaining games:Fins, Steelers, Bears, Bills. I think that they lose atleast 1 and probably 2 of those games. 12-4 or 11-5

Steelers: remaining games: Cincy, Jets, Panthers, Browns.They stand a good chance of winning all 4 so they may go 13-3 - 12-4 if they slip up once.

Patriots: remaining games: Bears, Packers, Bills, Fins. It think that Patriots have a good chance of winning all4. But either a loss to the Bears or Packers won't really mean much. 14-2 or 13-3 and #1 seed because of the win over the Steelers.

Tell me where I'm wrong.

 

[shmessy]

I just want three things:

1) Bye

2) Homefield throughout the AFC playoffs

3) No Ravens