IF Pats win vs. Jets - 1 game up + tie breaking advantage

[brdmaverick]

Regarding your above scenarios: the harder scenario 1 is moot due to th easier scenario 2 achieving everything the Patriots want.....which is the #1 seed. By virtue of the 3 loss record the Patriots would have under scenario 2, only the Jets, Pitt or Balt could match 3 losses (none of them could be better than 3 losses). Since we hold the tie break against all three teams (at least I believe we do), it is the #1 seed for the Pats.

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Of course one of the scenarios is easier, but I don't know why it would be considered 'moot'. Just stating the facts.

 

[brdmaverick]

Um well, maybe. That is assuming that the Jets win every game except for the Patriots game. Other than the Patriots in the second week of the season, the Jets haven't beaten a good + 500 team.

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no, not MAYBE, DEFINITELY. You are right that under the scenario the JETS win out, but IF they don't, the Pats win the division based on a record straight up (no tie breaker) so both scenarios are STILL true.

 

[Triumph]

Patriots - Jets winner likely wins AFC East, first round bye - Boston Sports | Examiner.com

 

[Fencer]

How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Every regular season game counts one game in the standings.

Every regular season game counts two games in the standings against the team you play. (If you win, they also lose, and vice versa.)

If a game changes the outcome of a tiebreak against somebody, that's like it counts for an extra game against them. (I'm assuming there are no ties, which is very close to being true.)

It seems pretty clear that the Jets game will affect the tiebreak. (I'm going off of what I saw in other threads here. If the Jets win, they DEFINITELY have the tiebreak. If the Pats win, it seems they do.)

So the Pat-Jets game counts three times as much as, say, a game against an NFC team when affecting Pats vs. Jets standings.

Pats vs. Jets standings seem to be the overwhelmingly most important ones, as the base case is they'll determine 1st vs. 5th seed.

Numerous other games have had somewhat more than 1x importance too, as they also affect the tiebreak.

Bottom line: The Pats-Jets game is about 1 1/2 - 2X important as the average regular-season game. Going further and calling it 3X as important is a stretch, but not a crazy wild exaggeration.

 

[aluminum seats]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

I would say it's 2.753/1.2111-.0065 as important.

Come on, man. Christ.

 

[SVN]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Patriots-Jets: What's on the line - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[Haley]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Hmm... I would say is must be close to the limit as h approaches 0, f(x + h) - f(x)/h.

 

[patsfan13]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

The Pats control their own destiny, the need to win this game to get the #1 seed in the AFC. With a young team like this a bye week and Home Field Advantage could mean a trip to the SB.

 

[Dufflebagz]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Hmm... I would say is must be close to the limit as h approaches 0, f(x + h) - f(x)/h.

Uhhhh.....please don't go into f(x). I hate that ish :ugh:

This games important, simple.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

I'm not at liberty to divulge details, but suffice to say if the Patriots lose next Monday the Chinese economy will crash sparking a global depression...

So yeah, there's a lot riding on this

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Barely has tonight's "MNF" concluded than ESPN is running ticker on next Monday's game and they are already talking about it. Just about no mention of what happened tonight.

 

[Dufflebagz]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Just about no mention of what happened tonight.

Good, watching the game was bad enough.

 

[Triumph]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

I'm not at liberty to divulge details, but suffice to say if the Patriots lose next Monday the Chinese economy will crash sparking a global depression...

So yeah, there's a lot riding on this

Needless to say, everybody over there has a lot of Yen riding on this game.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Perhaps using Pi as a multiplier would be helpful?

 

[Triumph]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Every regular season game counts one game in the standings.

Every regular season game counts two games in the standings against the team you play. (If you win, they also lose, and vice versa.)

If a game changes the outcome of a tiebreak against somebody, that's like it counts for an extra game against them. (I'm assuming there are no ties, which is very close to being true.)

It seems pretty clear that the Jets game will affect the tiebreak. (I'm going off of what I saw in other threads here. If the Jets win, they DEFINITELY have the tiebreak. If the Pats win, it seems they do.)

So the Pat-Jets game counts three times as much as, say, a game against an NFC team when affecting Pats vs. Jets standings.

Pats vs. Jets standings seem to be the overwhelmingly most important ones, as the base case is they'll determine 1st vs. 5th seed.

Numerous other games have had somewhat more than 1x importance too, as they also affect the tiebreak.

Bottom line: The Pats-Jets game is about 1 1/2 - 2X important as the average regular-season game. Going further and calling it 3X as important is a stretch, but not a crazy wild exaggeration.

This is the biggest regular season game that I can remember in quite a while.

Im going to raise your 1.5X - 2X to 4X.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

This coming Sunday and Monday night games......

Could very well determine the #1 and #2 seeds with the winners of these 2 games gaining the edge not only in the division but into the playoffs.

If the Jets and Ravens both win I cannot see either team not getting a bye barring a complete collapse in December.

These 2 games are more important for the Steelers and Pats to win if they want any chance at a bye,lose and it's wild card weekend in all likelyhood.

The Steelers are in the exact same boat as New England,both teams face their top division rival who beat them once already

Like I said,the 2 teams who win this weekends big night clashes could still miss out on the bye, but I would not bet on a complete shutdown of concentration to secure home field to the 2 teams that win these games.

 

[ivanvamp]

Tie-breakers make my head hurt, but I do think that the Conference Record comes into play somewhere before you get to schedule strength. In that case, on your scenario, we'd have two Conference losses (Jets and Browns) vs. one for the Jets.

No. The Jets have lost to the Ravens (one AFC loss) and the Packers. If the Pats beat the Jets (which is what the O.P. suggested), the Jets will then have *two* AFC losses (NE and Bal). The Pats, if they beat the Jets, Miami, Buffalo, and one of GB/Chi, will also have two AFC losses (NYJ, Cle).

So if NE beats the Jets, it indeed does go all the way down to that strength of victory tiebreaker, which the Pats would win.

Man, that Cleveland game....it would give the Pats a very nice cushion. Oh well....

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If we win Monday we basically just have to:

-Match what the Jets do against Chicago
-Match what the Jets do against Buffalo/Miami

And we beat out the Jets, even if we lose to GB and there happens to be a loss or 2 in the above scenario.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Re: How much extra importance does the Jets game have?

Needless to say, everybody over there has a lot of Yen riding on this game.

Since the Chinese practically invented the concept of a currency that could be exchanged for goods or services and since they hold a ton of US IOU's, we should at least give them their due: the Chinese currency is the Renminbi, sometimes referred to as the Yuan, its largest unit. The Yen is the currency of Japan.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

No. The Jets have lost to the Ravens (one AFC loss) and the Packers. If the Pats beat the Jets (which is what the O.P. suggested), the Jets will then have *two* AFC losses (NE and Bal). The Pats, if they beat the Jets, Miami, Buffalo, and one of GB/Chi, will also have two AFC losses (NYJ, Cle).

So if NE beats the Jets, it indeed does go all the way down to that strength of victory tiebreaker, which the Pats would win.

Man, that Cleveland game....it would give the Pats a very nice cushion. Oh well....

To be honest, I'm not sure what point I was trying to make when I posted what I did last week. I do recall observing that the Conference Record was one of the tie-breakers and that it had been omitted by the OP.

I think I was suggesting that it's too early to get down to wondering about strength of schedule since the Jets still have to travel to Pittsburgh and we both have tough (as Pittsburgh learned on Sunday) division games against both the Fins and Bills ahead. But it does go without saying that Monday's game is huge.