Pats-Jets tiebreakers for those who can't help but think too far ahead

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION (source: nfl.com)

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.

etc.

If the Pats beat the Jets on Monday Night (November 8th), it would certainly put them in the driver's seat. In order to prevent a massive 8 gagillion page report on possibilities, let's just take a pretty likely scenario: The Pats and Jets both go 5-1 vs. the AFC East.

Contrary to popular belief, the next tiebreaker does NOT go to the conference record.

The tiebreaker would then move to their record in common games. We've already covered the division in this scenario, and the Pats would stand at 10-2, while the Jets would be 9-3. The reason we assume the Pats win is because, if the Jets win, the Pats would have an extremely brutal time winning the division at that point, even moreso than the Jets.

Taking out the AFC East opponents, the Pats and Jets have the following common opponents: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, and Minnesota. You can eliminate Cincinnati, Detroit, and Minnesota because those were wins from both teams.

Jets losses to common opponents (2): Baltimore, Green Bay
Jets upcoming games vs. common opponents: @ Pittsburgh, @ Chicago

Pats losses to common opponents (1): Cleveland
Pats upcoming games vs. common opponents: @ Chicago, Green Bay

By this standard, a loss by the Jets would put the Patriots in the driver's seat more than most people think. The Jets would absolutely need to beat both Chicago and Pittsburgh on the road and hope the Patriots lose another game and even then they might not win a tiebreaker. The Patriots would have to lose to either Miami or Buffalo to give the Jets any real shot.

If the Patriots beat the Jets and then lose to Chicago OR Green Bay, and the Jets beat the Pittsburgh and Green Bay, this race would come down to whichever team is able to run up the score on a bad team late in the season, as their strength of victory is pretty even right now.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION (source: nfl.com)

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.

etc.

If the Pats beat the Jets on Monday Night (November 8th), it would certainly put them in the driver's seat. In order to prevent a massive 8 gagillion page report on possibilities, let's just take a pretty likely scenario: The Pats and Jets both go 5-1 vs. the AFC East.

Contrary to popular belief, the next tiebreaker does NOT go to the conference record.

The tiebreaker would then move to their record in common games. We've already covered the division in this scenario, and the Pats would stand at 10-2, while the Jets would be 9-3. The reason we assume the Pats win is because, if the Jets win, the Pats would have an extremely brutal time winning the division at that point, even moreso than the Jets.

Taking out the AFC East opponents, the Pats and Jets have the following common opponents: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, and Minnesota. You can eliminate Cincinnati, Detroit, and Minnesota because those were wins from both teams.

Jets losses to common opponents (2): Baltimore, Green Bay
Jets upcoming games vs. common opponents: @ Pittsburgh, @ Chicago

Pats losses to common opponents (1): Cleveland
Pats upcoming games vs. common opponents: @ Chicago, Green Bay

By this standard, a loss by the Jets would put the Patriots in the driver's seat more than most people think. The Jets would absolutely need to beat both Chicago and Pittsburgh on the road and hope the Patriots lose another game and even then they might not win a tiebreaker. The Patriots would have to lose to either Miami or Buffalo to give the Jets any real shot.

If the Patriots beat the Jets and then lose to Chicago OR Green Bay, and the Jets beat the Pittsburgh and Green Bay, this race would come down to whichever team is able to run up the score on a bad team late in the season, as their strength of victory is pretty even right now.

yeah it's too confusing to think about tie breakers now. if the pats win against the jets and both teams win out the remaining division games, then it will come down to common games. right now, no team has the edge in common games as we have beaten baltimore (jets lost to them) and they lost to green bay but beat cleveland. they have yet to play pittsburgh and chicago and we have yet to play green bay and chicago. me thinks we will find out week 15 who will have the edge in common opponents.

 

[aluminum seats]

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION (source: nfl.com)

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.

etc.

If the Pats beat the Jets on Monday Night (November 8th), it would certainly put them in the driver's seat. In order to prevent a massive 8 gagillion page report on possibilities, let's just take a pretty likely scenario: The Pats and Jets both go 5-1 vs. the AFC East.

Contrary to popular belief, the next tiebreaker does NOT go to the conference record.

The tiebreaker would then move to their record in common games. We've already covered the division in this scenario, and the Pats would stand at 10-2, while the Jets would be 9-3. The reason we assume the Pats win is because, if the Jets win, the Pats would have an extremely brutal time winning the division at that point, even moreso than the Jets.

Taking out the AFC East opponents, the Pats and Jets have the following common opponents: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, and Minnesota. You can eliminate Cincinnati, Detroit, and Minnesota because those were wins from both teams.

Jets losses to common opponents (2): Baltimore, Green Bay
Jets upcoming games vs. common opponents: @ Pittsburgh, @ Chicago

Pats losses to common opponents (1): Cleveland
Pats upcoming games vs. common opponents: @ Chicago, Green Bay

By this standard, a loss by the Jets would put the Patriots in the driver's seat more than most people think. The Jets would absolutely need to beat both Chicago and Pittsburgh on the road and hope the Patriots lose another game and even then they might not win a tiebreaker. The Patriots would have to lose to either Miami or Buffalo to give the Jets any real shot.

If the Patriots beat the Jets and then lose to Chicago OR Green Bay, and the Jets beat the Pittsburgh and Green Bay, this race would come down to whichever team is able to run up the score on a bad team late in the season, as their strength of victory is pretty even right now.

I don't think strength of victory means what you think it means. I believe that refers to opponents' winning % in that team's victories, which the Pats are comfortably ahead in. Meaning, if the Pats beat the Jets, they'll be able to stumble in the remaining 4 games and still win the division/top seed.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I don't think strength of victory means what you think it means. I believe that refers to opponents' winning % in that team's victories, which the Pats are comfortably ahead in. Meaning, if the Pats beat the Jets, they'll be able to stumble in the remaining 4 games and still win the division/top seed.

exactly. About Football Glossary - Strength of Victory

 

[hallfamebrady]

@IceIceBrady - I like the positive thinking but we have a long way to go in this season although we have five games left. The NFL schedule maker gave the Pats and the Jets all common opponents the rest of the way except we have the Packers and the Jets have the Steelers. Both are tough opponents.

Here is my thoughts on who is going to win the AFC East:

1. Winner of Jets / Pats - the Jets will be the likely winner of the AFC East if they win next Monday night. I am unable to see any scenerio where we can make up a two game deficit with four games left. The Pats will have the inside track if they win this game with less of a guarantee.

2. Division games - both teams should be able to beat the Fins and the Bills on paper. However, anything can happen in a division showdown. The Jets get the Fins 12/12 and they could be 7 - 5 with an outside chance at the playoffs. The Bills have gotten close to beating the Pats a couple of times recently. Both the Fins and the Bills will not lie down in these games.

3. The week of 12/19 - the Jets plays @ Pittsburgh and the Pats play the Packers at home. Recent history favors the Pats. The Steelers traditionally beat up on the Jets at Heinz and the Pats rarely lose at home.

Something to think about. the winner of this game will have a great chance at being the number one seed in the AFC playoffs. As for the loser, the likely outcome is the number five seed with a road trip for the first round of the playoffs. Likely opponents include @San Diego or @Indy. If each team is able to survive the first round, the next likely opponent would be each other in round two playing on the road.

Without question, this game is the most important regular season game the Patriots have played in about ten years.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Thanks, guys. I always like to learn more about the league.

On that note, the Pats would have a huge advantage with a win. The strength of victory means that beating the Ravens and losing the Browns > Beating the Browns and losing to the Ravens.

 

[hallfamebrady]

exactly. About Football Glossary - Strength of Victory

Is this based on the record at the end of the season or the record at the time of the victory? Future wins by SD, Indy, and Baltimore would be extremely helpful.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

To date, the strength of victory standings:

New England (Cin, Buff, Mia, Bal, SD, Min, Pitt, Ind, Det)
39

New York Jets (NE, Mia, Cle, Min, Det, Hou, Den, Buf, Cin)
33

A win over the Jets would put the Patriots at 48 and give them a nearly insurmountable lead. So if they beat the Jets, they could conceivably lose one more non-divisional game (Packers or Bears) and still win the division if the Jets win out.

Wow, the Jets have really played a cake schedule so far. I'd almost rather see the Pats win the division through a tiebreaker, just to have this incredibly tough schedule pay dividends in the end.

 

[D-Money]

Win the game and thats it!We lose this game then we are looking at the wildcard.We gotta bring our best effort on monday.Cant afford a slow start like the one in detroit.I dont wanna play catch up with this jets defense.

 

[PatsDeb]

Win the game and thats it!We lose this game then we are looking at the wildcard.We gotta bring our best effort on monday.Cant afford a slow start like the one in detroit.I dont wanna play catch up with this jets defense.

It's incredible that every "must win" game we play leads to the next "must win" game. We REALLY need to win this one.

 

[D-Money]

True but even if the jets lose they are still in it.We need the game more because they are 3-0 in the division and i dont see them losing to the bills or the dolphins.

 

[SuperPatsFan]

To compare the current SOV, just add the losses of the teams only one of the two teams (Pats and Jets) has beaten:

Jets: Broncos (7), Texans(6), Browns (7) = 20 SOV losses
Pats: Ravens (3) , Colts (4), Chargers (5), Steelers (3) = 15 SOV losses

The Pats are currently 5 games ahead in the SOV race, in the loss column, and you may elect to take this analysis into consideration when choosing whether to root for/against the above teams.

ETA: Also note that if the Jets beat the Steelers, the Steelers drop out of the SOV analysis. In SOV the teams that matter are the teams that one team beats but the other doesn't.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Is this based on the record at the end of the season or the record at the time of the victory? Future wins by SD, Indy, and Baltimore would be extremely helpful.

that's a great question. im pretty sure it's the end of the season. i mean it wouldn't be fair for purposes of calculation, for example, if the pats beat green bay in week 15 while the jets beat them in week 6.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Pretty simple....win the next 8. Then we host a Thursday night game.

 

[Canes53]

Given the remaining schedule it is impossible for the common games tie breaker to come into effect.

If the Jets and Pats have the same record, and Jets win Monday (they win divsion).
If Pats win Monday but lose another game in standings to Jets, the Jets win if the loss is an AFC east team - If it is to one of the NFC teams then the common games will be equal and it will move to SOV (edge Pats)

Bottom line is most likely - the winner Monday night is the #1 seed.

 

[pblmax99]

Most important tiebreaker is Mondays game bottom line....if Jets win...they are in good shape even with a game @ Pitt..if Pats win they are in good shape...for 1st rd bye and division.

 

[moosekill]

I can easily see the Jets losing both to the Bears and the Steelers. If that happens and the Pats win all their games, except for the Jets game, they get the division.

It is still so early, the wins and loses almost never occur how you expect them to at this point in the season.

 

[neuronet]

Without question, this game is the most important regular season game the Patriots have played in about ten years.

To the folks lucky enough to be going to this game: if you are physically able of speaking the next day, you did not do your job.

They need us. Yes, they are great without us, but Sanchize can be rattled by a boisterous and unsympathetic crowd. Patriots fans must deliver.

 

[neuronet]

It is still so early, the wins and loses almost never occur how you expect them to at this point in the season.

Yep, we have too much time on our hands...

 

[ATippett56]

It's incredible that every "must win" game we play leads to the next "must win" game. We REALLY need to win this one.

Every AFC East Divisional Game for the New England Patriots is must win from now on.