IF Pats win vs. Jets - 1 game up + tie breaking advantage

[brdmaverick]

Monday Night's Game REALLY is for the AFC East Title (well, most likely)

Here's the thing, I was originally thinking that the Pats could win vs. the Jets but still conceivably lose one of their other remaining games. Assuming the Jets win out (after the Pats game) I was thinking that the Jets would hold the tie breaker. I figured their loss to Green Bay (NFC team) would be the tie breaker.


After further review, that is currently not true.
IF Pat win vs. Jets but lose to CHI or GB, they would still hold the tie breaker if the Jets win out.

Here are the tie breakers.....

1.) head to head - season series would be split, move to step 2
2.) division record - both teams would be 5-1, move to step 3
3.) record vs. common opponents - all losses would be to common opponents, so records would be identical (uncommon opponents Pats = Chargers, Colts; Jets = Broncos, Texans)
4.) strength of victory - if Pats lose to GB or CHI, they would have an 8 game advantage for this tie breaker currently; Pats have beaten stronger teams (or to look at it the other way, Pats would have lost to weaker teams than the Jets) Pat would have lost to Jets/Browns/Bears ; while the Jets would have lost to the Ravens/Packers/Patriots


EDIT: I did forget CONFERNCE RECORD which comes after common opponents, BUT if we lost to the BEARS or the PACKERS we would have the same conference record as the JETS (we would be 3-1 vs. NFC and Jets would be 3-1 NFC, so it would still go to strenght of victory)

 

[BlueThunder]

Patriots are winning the rest of their games...so this point is moot

 

[brdmaverick]

Patriots are winning the rest of their games...so this point is moot

I would like to think so, too. But if they beat the Jets, it's good to know they have a mulligan if needed.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Monday Night's Game REALLY is for the AFC East Title (well, most likely)

Here's the thing, I was originally thinking that the Pats could win vs. the Jets but still conceivably lose one of their other remaining games. Assuming the Jets win out (after the Pats game) I was thinking that the Jets would hold the tie breaker. I figured their loss to Green Bay (NFC team) would be the tie breaker.


After further review, that is currently not true.
IF Pat win vs. Jets but lose to CHI or GB, they would still hold the tie breaker if the Jets win out.

Here are the tie breakers.....

1.) head to head - season series would be split, move to step 2
2.) division record - both teams would be 5-1, move to step 3
3.) record vs. common opponents - all losses would be to common opponents, so records would be identical (uncommon opponents Pats = Chargers, Colts; Jets = Broncos, Texans)
4.) strength of victory - if Pats lose to GB or CHI, they would have an 8 game advantage for this tie breaker currently; Pats have beaten stronger teams (or to look at it the other way, Pats would have lost to weaker teams than the Jets) Pat would have lost to Jets/Browns/Bears ; while the Jets would have lost to the Ravens/Packers/Patriots

Between #3 and #4 is best conference record.....
NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Monday Night's Game REALLY is for the AFC East Title (well, most likely)

Here's the thing, I was originally thinking that the Pats could win vs. the Jets but still conceivably lose one of their other remaining games. Assuming the Jets win out (after the Pats game) I was thinking that the Jets would hold the tie breaker. I figured their loss to Green Bay (NFC team) would be the tie breaker.


After further review, that is currently not true.
IF Pat win vs. Jets but lose to CHI or GB, they would still hold the tie breaker if the Jets win out.

Here are the tie breakers.....

1.) head to head - season series would be split, move to step 2
2.) division record - both teams would be 5-1, move to step 3
3.) record vs. common opponents - all losses would be to common opponents, so records would be identical (uncommon opponents Pats = Chargers, Colts; Jets = Broncos, Texans)
4.) strength of victory - if Pats lose to GB or CHI, they would have an 8 game advantage for this tie breaker currently; Pats have beaten stronger teams (or to look at it the other way, Pats would have lost to weaker teams than the Jets) Pat would have lost to Jets/Browns/Bears ; while the Jets would have lost to the Ravens/Packers/Patriots

Tie-breakers make my head hurt, but I do think that the Conference Record comes into play somewhere before you get to schedule strength. In that case, on your scenario, we'd have two Conference losses (Jets and Browns) vs. one for the Jets. [Edit: not trying to pile on...just saw the post right above.]

But, your analysis assumes that the Jets go to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers. I'm not ready to assume that.

It is time to start wondering about these things, though. I'm just not clear yet on how this is going to play out.

 

[LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks]

Tie-breakers make my head hurt, but I do think that the Conference Record comes into play somewhere before you get to schedule strength. In that case, on your scenario, we'd have two Conference losses (Jets and Browns) vs. one for the Jets. [Edit: not trying to pile on...just saw the post right above.]

But, your analysis assumes that the Jets go to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers. I'm not ready to assume that.

It is time to start wondering about these things, though. I'm just not clear yet on how this is going to play out.

Well, if we beat the Jets and don't trip up vs Miami or Buffalo, worst case scenario (Jets beating the Steelers) is we'd be tied in conference record too. We'd each have losses in the conference to each other, they'd have one vs Baltimore and we'd have one vs Cleveland. Right now the Jets have 1 conference loss and we have 2, but you are forgetting they'd have another 1 vs us next week if we win.

So looks like the OP was right, despite leaving out 1 tie breaker. We'd win it on strength of victory.

 

[moosekill]

Jets have Patriots away, Steelers away, and Bears away. Three very tough games, add to that the dolphins and the bills.

The Pats have the Jets at home, Green Bay, at home, Chicago away, and the Dolphins and Bills.

So both teams have three very good teams left to play along with two division teams. Both teams play Chicago at Chicago. The Patriots have two of the three tough teams at home, while the Jets have all three away. They both have the Dolphins at home, and the Pats are away at Buffalo, while the Jets have them at home.
Which schedule would you rather have.

 

[moosekill]

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

[moosekill]

So, if the Pats beat the Jets, then we have the Pats with a 1 game lead, both having lost 1 division game, and 2 conference games, with the jets having lost against Green Bay. If we assume, for argument purposes, that both the Pats and Jets beat Miami, and the Bills, a big assumption but that is the odds, then if the Jets win out and the Pats lose one more game, all of those tie breakers will be even.

Then it goes to strength of victory.

Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
Examples:
If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.

This should go to the Patriots.

 

[LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks]

So, if the Pats beat the Jets, then we have the Pats with a 1 game lead, both having lost 1 division game, and 2 conference games, with the jets having lost against Green Bay. If we assume, for argument purposes, that both the Pats and Jets beat Miami, and the Bills, a big assumption but that is the odds, then if the Jets win out and the Pats lose one more game, all of those tie breakers will be even.

Then it goes to strength of victory.

Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
Examples:
If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.

This should go to the Patriots.

Correct. If we beat the Jets, we can afford a loss to GB or Chicago but can't afford to trip up against the Dolphins or Bills.

It's also worth noting, that winning this week would give us a VERY good chance at home field throughout. Since we beat the Steelers and Ravens head to head, we lead them by 1 game and we have the tie breaker. We'd basically have a 2 game lead (or 1.5) in the home field race. Of course, if we lose, we are basically a lock to be the 5th seed, opening up wild card weekend on the road. HUGE game.

 

[moosekill]

All this aside, and looking at the Jets this season, I would not be at all surprised to see them lose 3 more games this year.

 

[Patspsycho]

Between #3 and #4 is best conference record.....
NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

I never liked that. I think conference record should come before common opponents.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Bottom line, the Pats have to beat the Jets to secure the #1 overall seed. If they lose then not only will they have the worse record but they would lose the head to head tiebreaker. It's going to be a tough, hard fought game but the Patriots are really, really strong at home. I think we hang on for the win and take that #1 seed going into the playoffs.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Well, if we beat the Jets and don't trip up vs Miami or Buffalo, worst case scenario (Jets beating the Steelers) is we'd be tied in conference record too. We'd each have losses in the conference to each other, they'd have one vs Baltimore and we'd have one vs Cleveland. Right now the Jets have 1 conference loss and we have 2, but you are forgetting they'd have another 1 vs us next week if we win.

So looks like the OP was right, despite leaving out 1 tie breaker. We'd win it on strength of victory.

Yeah. But a lot of assumptions in there. We'd be going into Chicago after a Monday night game and tough, emotional wins in three of four prior games against PIT, IND and NYJ. We've also got the Packers in a prime time game; they definitely don't think they're getting enough respect in the NFC, what with the Favre circus and Vick and all the props that have been thrown the Falcons' way...makes for a dangerous game for us. I see us winning both of those games, but if the team that took the field in Cleveland shows up for either one, it's gonna be interesting. The Jets have a tough series @NEP and @PIT.

Too many pieces still up in the air. There are scenarios in which we could be 13--3 and get the Wildcard (beat the Jets but lose to the Fins or Bills while the Jets win out after losing to us--we're tied head-to-head but have two division losses to the Jets' one) and also scenarios in which we are 12--4 and win the Division and get the bye week (beat the Jets but lose to Chicago and the Pack, while winning the rest, while the Jets lose also to the Fins or Bills, while winning the rest--again tied head to head but we have one division loss while the Jets have two).

However, what is clear is that it's very tough sledding to win the division and get a bye if we lose to the Jets. We'd have to win out and hope that the Jets lose two of their final four games.

I do agree though that it's appropriate to start thinking about these things now that our next game is in early December and we've gotten through PIT and Indy and the classic trap game in DET. It's just that there are too many scenarios to make too much speculation useful.

One week at a time and let the other teams worry about themselves.

 

[Nikolai]

Jets have Patriots away, Steelers away, and Bears away. Three very tough games, add to that the dolphins and the bills.

The Pats have the Jets at home, Green Bay, at home, Chicago away, and the Dolphins and Bills.

So both teams have three very good teams left to play along with two division teams. Both teams play Chicago at Chicago. The Patriots have two of the three tough teams at home, while the Jets have all three away. They both have the Dolphins at home, and the Pats are away at Buffalo, while the Jets have them at home.
Which schedule would you rather have.

The bigger point is that the Pats have already had their major away games and won them all. Soon, the Jets will have their chance to match that performance. So far, the Jets have had their tougher opponents (NE, GB, Baltimore) at home. Now they will have to win on the road. In my mind, this really puts the Pats in the driver's seat.

 

[brdmaverick]

Here is what it comes down to......

1.) Pats win the division if they win out (including Monday vs. Jets)

2.) Pats win the division if they win vs. Jets, and lose 1 and only 1 of the following games (vs. GB, at CHI)

 

[moosekill]

Here is what it comes down to......

1.) Pats win the division if they win out (including Monday vs. Jets)

2.) Pats win the division if they win vs. Jets, and lose 1 and only 1 of the following games (vs. GB, at CHI)

Um well, maybe. That is assuming that the Jets win every game except for the Patriots game. Other than the Patriots in the second week of the season, the Jets haven't beaten a good + 500 team.

They have played three +500 teams, the Pats, Ravens, and Packers, and lost to two of the three.

The Pats have played the Jets, Ravens, Chargers, Steelers, and Colts, and beaten 4 of them. Including the Jets, Chargers and Steelers on the road.

The Jets beat the Pats fair and square, however, they have really struggled with a number of the teams they have beaten, including the Broncos, Lions, Browns, and Texans.

I think there is a pretty good chance the Jets will lose at least one of their remaining games, which invalidates your conclusions.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I never liked that. I think conference record should come before common opponents.

Now, get yourself appointed NFL Commissioner or buy an NFL team and maybe your voice will be heard...

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The bigger point is that the Pats have already had their major away games and won them all. Soon, the Jets will have their chance to match that performance. So far, the Jets have had their tougher opponents (NE, GB, Baltimore) at home. Now they will have to win on the road. In my mind, this really puts the Pats in the driver's seat.

Agree re Jets on the road, but I think the Bears and any division rival on the road are tough games.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Here is what it comes down to......

1.) Pats win the division if they win out (including Monday vs. Jets)

2.) Pats win the division if they win vs. Jets, and lose 1 and only 1 of the following games (vs. GB, at CHI)

Regarding your above scenarios: the harder scenario 1 is moot due to th easier scenario 2 achieving everything the Patriots want.....which is the #1 seed. By virtue of the 3 loss record the Patriots would have under scenario 2, only the Jets, Pitt or Balt could match 3 losses (none of them could be better than 3 losses). Since we hold the tie break against all three teams (at least I believe we do), it is the #1 seed for the Pats.

Obviously next Monday's game will have a massive effect on both teams. The road to the SB (with all due respect to those who believe the Jets will lose other remaining games) will likely play out like this: the loser of next Monday's game will play 3 playoff games with 2 very likely on the road. The winner of the game plays 2 games at home. Imho any other scenario is very unlikely.