Spike card
Middleweight bout:
Aaron Simpson vs. Mark Muñoz
This should be an interesting fight both on paper and in the Octagon.
Both fighters were not far removed from being considered blue chip prospects and on the cusp of breaking through into the top tier.
Both saw their upward growth come to a halt in their last fights (Munoz-- a lackluster outing loss to Yushin Okami; Simpson-- a disappointing TKO defeat at the hands of Chris Leben).
Both come from extensive wrestling backgrounds.
What this fight boils down to may be who has the better stand up and how much ground control can be used.
I'd give Munoz the slight advantage in wrestling, however in MMA wrestling/grappling, Simpson gets the nod.
Standup, I think Simpson has better standup. Munoz has more power behind his punches, but Simpson is more crisp and thorough with his.
I see it going the distance, and Simpson getting back in the win column.
Simpson by Decision
Welterweight bout:
Matt Brown vs. Brian Foster
This fight well could be a "loser-leaves-the-UFC" fight.
While it's hard to assume either fighter is on the hot seat due to the fact that neither have dull fights, realistically speaking both find themselves in just that spot.
Foster's UFC career has, if nothing else, been consistent. He either wins in spectacular fashion or loses in spectacular fashion. This seems to hold true to course of his MMA career, as in 19 professional fights, he's yet to have one go the distance. Furthermore, none of his fights have even gone to the THIRD ROUND in over three and a half years. That being said, exciting fighter or not, a loss bumps him to under .500 in the promotion. While the welterweight division is dominated by Georges St. Pierre, the division as a whole is stacked to the point where fighters with sub .500 records promotionally run the risks of being given the pink slip.
Brown is another who lives up to the "fail to disappoint" crowd, and win, lose or draw always puts his best fight forward. However Brown is coming off back-to-back losses. A third straight loss, which would bump his professional record to 11-10 (which is perhaps as misleading as any record out there, but I digress) might be sign for his walking papers.
This one is going to come down to whether Foster is able to control the pace of the fight with his wrestling. A striking battle with Brown is not in his best interests, and will lead to a loss and subsequent departure. On the ground, Brown is solid with submissions, but when being smothered and against superior grapplers, it's a different story. We saw both Ricardo Almeida and Chris Lytle in subsequent fights put Brown on his back and dominate. Foster's chances of winning are based off him doing just this.
While Foster isn't on the same level of grappler as these two, his wrestling should be enough to overwhelm Brown when he wants to take the fight to the ground and should be enough for him to score a stoppage in the second round due to ground strikes.
Foster by TKO, Round 2
Main Card
Lightweight bout:
George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon
Make no mistake about this.. I really like Lauzon (minus his awful nickname, but that's neither here nor there) and will be emphatically rooting for him.
I think he's a talented fighter who still has a ton of upside and has yet to come close to reaching his full potential, which speaks volumes because he's pretty darn good as is. He's also exciting as hell, having either KO or Fight Of The Night bonuses paid out to him in six of his eight UFC fights.
That said, I don't like this matchup for him. Sotiropolous is a very stout grappler. In his last two fights, he's outgrappled Joe Stevenson and Kurt Pellegrino, both of whom I feel are better than Lauzon in that category.
If Lauzon keeps it standing, I see him winning this fight.
Unfortunately, I don't see him being able to keep it standing.
Again, make no mistake-- the fight can hit the ground 100 times, I don't see Lauzon getting submitted, however I see him getting outworked en route to a decision defeat.
Sotiropolous by Unanimous Decision
Light Heavyweight bout:
Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch
While Jon Jones and Ryan Bader at this point seem to be the light heavyweight division's most heralded prospects, Phil Davis is right on par with them, but doesn't get nearly the hype. Between his extensive wrestling background (a high level of success on the Division I level), a quick start to his MMA career, and impressive performances thus far have him right on the cusp of being held in the same regard. A win over Boetsch will certainly open a lot of eyes and will take another step forward in put him on that level.
With apologies to Brian Stann, Alexander Gustaffson and Rodney Wallace, this fight will be the toughest of his career to date. While Davis is an absolute stud wrestler, Boetsch himself wrestled collegiately on the Division I level at Lock Haven University. Also, by previous fights, he's proven he's by no means a slouch when it comes to wrestling and has quality striking to boot. For the first time, Davis will face someone where he won't have a major advantage in the grappling department.
This one comes down to how much top control Davis will be able to get. I DO think, while there's not a huge gap, he IS a better wrestler than Boetsch and I forsee him scoring enough takedowns and keeping Boetsch at bay enough to score a decision victory.
Davis by Unanimous Decision
Middleweight bout:
Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falcão
Here's what you need to know about Falcão.. He hits.. HARD. He also has good kicks and fast hands that connect with bad intentions. In 28 professional fights, he has yet to go to a decision. Furthermore, he has yet to see one of his fights make it out of the first round since 2008, and hasn't been past the second since 2007 (the only time in his career). He has defeated 84 percent of his opponents by KO/TKO.
The biggest question marks surrounding the Chute Boxe product are two fold: what's his takedown defense like and what's his stamina like? Can he withstand the strikers' nightmare (being put on his back and kept there) and how's he going to be chugging as the fight reaches the second and third round?
Of course, Falcão-- appropriately nicknamed Big Rig, all it takes is one or two punches for him to turn Harris' lights out.
While Harris can take abuse, there aren't many in the sport with strong enough chins to even THINK of standing up with Falcão. However, Harris isn't in the middle of a 10 fight win-streak (minus his loss to Amir Sadollah on The Ultimate Fighter 7, which isn't recognized as a loss being it was an exhibition) by mistake. He also knows that with a 3-0 record in the UFC, and the middleweight division wide open, one win will put him right up there into the mix of possible contenders.
Whereas the striking advantage will go to Falcão, every other advantage seemingly is Harris'. I see him putting this fight to the ground often and grinding out a decision win.
Harris by Unanimous Decision
Welterweight bout:
Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn
This officially is being dubbed the rubber match between the two, with each holding a victory in the first two fights. However, wins and losses don't tell the full story in their duo of fights.. Penn manhandled Hughes with ease in their first fight and was well on his way to doing so in the second fight before he broke his rib cage and was ultimately defeated.
Listen, ignore the cynics who say Penn is done. He's not. Remember, it was just a handful of fights ago ago that he absolutely embarrassed Diego Sanchez and thrashed Kenny Florian. In fact, outside of Frankie Edgar and Georges St. Pierre, the last fight where Penn was emphatically defeated in (yes, he lost to Hughes but again, he was dominating the fight before getting hurt) was in 2005 against Lyoto Machida.
I have no reason to believe Penn is done and I won't buy those who say he is. Frankie Edgar had the answer (no pun intended) as did GSP.. Their quickness and shifty striking made Penn go outside of his comfort level. Matt Hughes isn't that kind of fighter.
Penn finishes this one in the second with a submission. To me, he's the better fighter and Hughes doesn't have the style to beat him.
Penn by submission, Round 2
Light Heavyweight bout:
Quinton Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida
The commercial preview for this fight says everything: styles make fights.
As this is indeed the case, this fight is a stylistic nightmare for Jackson.
Jackson's offense, while hard to stop is pretty simple to figure out. He throws at full force, he tries to take you down and he charges straight ahead with a goal of knocking you out.
Against someone like Machida, a style like that gets you chopped down and beaten.
Keep this in mind.. Forrest Griffin was able to frustrate Rampage with kicks and body shots, and won the fight by keeping Rampage at bay. Rashad Evans was able to beat Rampage by keeping him limited with his attacks and by utilizing kicks and shifting. Needless to say, neither Griffin nor Evans are on Machida's PLANET when it comes to those skills, and Machida has made a CAREER by keeping opponents limited with their attacks. when it comes to striking and kicks, both Evans and Griffin were able to win by utilizing this offensive attack.
Machida points his way to another decisive decision win.
Machida by Unanimous Decision
While I don't expect it to happen the exact same way, I am taking Simpson by TKO.
