Brady, in the MVP race?

[TriplecHamp]

There is NO WAY Rivers is the MVP right now. His team is 4-5.

They need to win their division for him to win.

Brady has the best combination of stats and wins.

Rivers is more important to his team than any other player in the NFL. The Chargers have for 4 because of Philip Rivers, the Patriots have played better football overall. The MVP is really an individual award comprised of alot of smaller pieces. IE Brady won it because he had Welker, Moss, and a great O-line, Manning won with arguably the best receiving core over the last decade, Rivers is winning with off the street receivers and an average o-line.

 

[jcdavey]

Rivers is more important to his team than any other player in the NFL. The Chargers have for 4 because of Philip Rivers, the Patriots have played better football overall. The MVP is really an individual award comprised of alot of smaller pieces. IE Brady won it because he had Welker, Moss, and a great O-line, Manning won with arguably the best receiving core over the last decade, Rivers is winning with off the street receivers and an average o-line.

this ^............


peyton will probably win it again though, he stole it from favre last season, people just like peyton more, he doesn't have hardly any bad cred at all

 

[L Bizzle]

Right now Mike Vick has to be ahead of Peyton/Tom and Rivers in the MVP race

 

[emoney_33]

this ^............


peyton will probably win it again though, he stole it from favre last season, people just like peyton more, he doesn't have hardly any bad cred at all

He stole it from Chris Johnson.

 

[L Bizzle]

He stole it from Chris Johnson.

how valuable were all those yards Johnson got last year? How far did it carry his team towards good playoff position??

 

[emoney_33]

how valuable were all those yards Johnson got last year? How far did it carry his team towards good playoff position??

They were the most valuable. Individual value is NOT whether the team makes it to the playoffs. It's the most nonsensical argument there exists in sports today. "Oh they lost and they could have lost without him so he's not valuable". Where are the "well they could have won with an average QB too so he can't be MVP" arguments. This team-based individual-award nonsense is ridiculous. That's like a company firing all of their employees because since they lost money that means none of the employees had any value.

Chris Johnson helped his team more than any other player last year. The end team result is TEAM dependent and does not change Chris Johnson's value.

 

[Nikolai]

The basic point is that last year, you could have put Brees, Favre, or Johnson ahead of Peyton, but he still won because Painter is one of the most inept backup QBs we've seen in many years.

 

[swheeler23]

If the Patriots have any chance to win in the playoffs Brady is going to have to be MVP or they will lose.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

IN playoffs right now (AKA, you can get MVP)

Brady (6-2)
14 TDs
4 INTs
1,826 yards
95.7 Rating

Brees (6-3)
18 TDs
12 INTs
2,587 yards
91.7 Rating

Rodgers (6-3)
15 TDs
9 INTs
2,250 yards
90.6 Rating

NOT in playoffs right now (AKA, you're not getting MVP)

Vick (4-0)
7 TDs
0 INTs
1,017 yards / 262 rushing (2 TD)
105.3 Rating

Rivers (4-5)
19 TDs
8 INTs
2,944 yards
102.9 Rating

Manning (5-3)
16 TDs
4 INTs
2,478 yards
96.1 Rating

Brady has the best record, QB rating and TD/INT ratio out of the top 3 QB candidates.

Also, even if Eagles make playoffs, not starting a quarter of your games will hurt Vick.

 

[D-Money]

Manning will be the MVP or Rivers.Brady wont be in the mold unfortunatly.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

Manning will be the MVP or Rivers.Brady wont be in the mold unfortunatly.

Rivers's ONLY CHANCE of winning MVP is if the Chargers win the AFC West (a WC team is not coming out of the west)

They're currently 4-5 and 0-2 against the two teams ahead of them (Chiefs, Raiders)

 

[captain stone]

Brady, in the MVP race? That's a good one.
He's on my list in the Most Disappointing Players thread.

 

[Lansdowne]

People aren't going to like to read this -- I sure as hell don't -- but the truth hurts.

"Tom Brady's completion percentage has dropped 11.4 points and his passer rating 24.9 points since the Patriots traded Randy Moss a month ago.

Brady is passing for almost a yard less per attempt, and he's even getting sacked more with defenses creeping up closer to the line of scrimmage. Brady isn't alone, though. Pats tight ends have seen their catch percentage drop from 86 percent to 58, and Wes Welker's catch rate, yards per target, and yards after the catch are all down significantly. The Pats may be 3-1 since the trade, but there are major offensive problems on the horizon.
Source: ESPN Boston"

Snippet via Rotoworld, source ESPN Boston

 

[sbpatfan]

People aren't going to like to read this -- I sure as hell don't -- but the truth hurts.

"Tom Brady's completion percentage has dropped 11.4 points and his passer rating 24.9 points since the Patriots traded Randy Moss a month ago.

Brady is passing for almost a yard less per attempt, and he's even getting sacked more with defenses creeping up closer to the line of scrimmage. Brady isn't alone, though. Pats tight ends have seen their catch percentage drop from 86 percent to 58, and Wes Welker's catch rate, yards per target, and yards after the catch are all down significantly. The Pats may be 3-1 since the trade, but there are major offensive problems on the horizon.
Source: ESPN Boston"

Snippet via Rotoworld, source ESPN Boston

Opposing Pass Defenses

Brady
Bengals - 17th
Jets - 18th
Bills - 6th
Dolphins - 13th
Ravens - 9th
San Diego - 4th
Vikings - 10th
Browns - 25th
Average - 12.75

Manning
Texans - 32nd
Giants - 2nd
Broncos - 8th
Jaguars - 28th
Chiefs - 21st
Redskins - 31st
Houston - 32nd
Eagles - 15th
Average - 21.125

Rivers
Chiefs - 21st
Jaguars - 28th
Seahawks - 30th
Cardinals - 27th
Raiders - 3rd
Rams - 16th
Patriots - 29th
Titans - 23rd
Texans - 32nd
Average - 23.222 (Forgot the Chargers played 9)

 

[Lansdowne]

Opposing Pass Defenses

Brady
Bengals - 17th
Jets - 18th
Bills - 6th
Dolphins - 13th
Ravens - 9th
San Diego - 4th
Vikings - 10th
Browns - 25th
Average - 12.75

Manning
Texans - 32nd
Giants - 2nd
Broncos - 8th
Jaguars - 28th
Chiefs - 21st
Redskins - 31st
Houston - 32nd
Eagles - 15th
Average - 21.125

Rivers
Chiefs - 21st
Jaguars - 28th
Seahawks - 30th
Cardinals - 27th
Raiders - 3rd
Rams - 16th
Patriots - 29th
Titans - 23rd
Texans - 32nd
Average - 26.125

I see this as similar to the Strength of Schedule argument. How much of those rankings are cause and effect?

Are the pass defenses low/high in ranking as a result of the performances of those quarterbacks or are they independent of them?

For example, the Browns pass defense was ranked 31st in the league prior to Sunday's game. Now it's up to 25th. How much of that is a product of Brady throwing for below Cleveland's average passing yards allowed per game?

 

[sbpatfan]

I see this as similar to the Strength of Schedule argument. How much of those rankings are cause and effect?

Are the pass defenses low/high in ranking as a result of the performances of those quarterbacks or are they independent of them?

For example, the Browns pass defense was ranked 31st in the league prior to Sunday's game. Now it's up to 25th. How much of that is a product of Brady throwing for below Cleveland's average passing yards allowed per game?

And how much of River's / Manning's stats are from playing "catch up" in losing games? There are so many variables to why stat X is the way it is. What I see is that Brady has played considerably better pass defense teams. Are Manning and Rivers playing well? Yes, but so is Brady who has a better team record than either of them. And last time I checked that's more important than any other numerical stat at this point. But I forgot, MVP goes to the best fantasy football quarterback.

 

[Lansdowne]

And how much of River's / Manning's stats are from playing "catch up" in losing games? There are so many variables to why stat X is the way it is.

Exactly, which is why I don't see how just citing pass ranks is supposed to be any kind of retort to the post I made earlier about Brady's post-Moss numbers dipping.

Yes, but so is Brady who has a better team record than either of them. And last time I checked that's more important than any other numerical stat at this point. But I forgot, MVP goes to the best fantasy football quarterback.

No one will disagree with you about the wins being more important than the individual stats. But I don't think that's the end all beat all or else Ben Roethlisberger would have been MVP in 2004.

Your argument is that Brady's numbers have declined as a result of the opposing defenses being tougher. Mine is that the absence of Moss has had more to do with it. But I'm actually citing statistical analysis that proves that Brady's numbers (as well as Welker and the tight ends) have fallen since the trade. All you've given me is pass defense rankings, which we've both confirmed doesn't tell the whole story.

Do you believe opposing defenses are scheming against the Pats offense the exact same way now as they did with Moss? Do you believe the Pats offense is operating the same without Moss as it was with him?

The link I posted says defenses are playing the Pats closer to the line of scrimmage due to the short passing game being emphasized (which can be attributed to a lack of a deep threat). What would your explanation be to counter that observation?

 

[jmt57]

Just for fun I went back and looked at the previous MVPs, and looked at their teams. The last MVP by either the Associated Press or the Pro Football Writer's Association that was not on a playoff team was in 1973, when only four teams per conference made the playoffs. OJ Simpson won it that year on a 9-5 Buffalo team when he became the first player in NFL history to run for over 2,000 yards in a season, a milestone that most thought would never be reached.

So it's not unprecedented for a player to be the league MVP playing on a team that misses the playoffs. But anything less than some absolutely extraordinary achievement, then forget it.

 

[jmt57]

Your argument is that Brady's numbers have declined as a result of the opposing defenses being tougher. Mine is that the absence of Moss has had more to do with it. But I'm actually citing statistical analysis that proves that Brady's numbers (as well as Welker and the tight ends) have fallen since the trade. All you've given me is pass defense rankings, which we've both confirmed doesn't tell the whole story.

Actually you have both cited statistical evidence to back up your claims. One could say the same thing about your numbers as well, that the before and after stats don't tell the whole story.

So for right now it's a stalemate. You have your beliefs, and he has is. There is no right or wrong, it's far too early to make that determination with absolute certainty - just like it is not possible to determine how a team will perform for the next eight games based solely on the outcome of the most recent game.



But this thread is not about the Pats offense without Randy Moss. It's about possible MVP candidates. There's another thread elsewhere if you want to talk about the effects of Moss being traded on the New England offense. If that is what you want to discuss do so there, not here.

 

[Lansdowne]

Actually you have both cited statistical evidence to back up your claims. One could say the same thing about your numbers as well, that the before and after stats don't tell the whole story.

So for right now it's a stalemate. You have your beliefs, and he has is. There is no right or wrong, it's far too early to make that determination with absolute certainty - just like it is not possible to determine how a team will perform for the next eight games based solely on the outcome of the most recent game.



But this thread is not about the Pats offense without Randy Moss. It's about possible MVP candidates. There's another thread elsewhere if you want to talk about the effects of Moss being traded on the New England offense. If that is what you want to discuss do so there, not here.

Yeah. Sorry for throwing the thread off-track.

FWIW, I believe Brady is still the team MVP, but isn't in the NFL MVP discussion as of right now, or if he is, not a front-runner in the conversation.