idle thoughts....the late edition

[patfanken]

1. Actually this is my 3rd attempt at a post this week. The first one I did right after the SD game, and for some reason, it disappeared overnight. The second time was on Wednesday, but when I tried to submit it, it got lost and I was too discouraged to start again. I'm hoping the 3rd time is the charm.

2. Just a few parting thoughts on the SD game.

a. BJGE blew the 4th down play. If you look at the replay they did from behind the QB, you will see that if he had followed Connolly he'd have made the yardage. Instead he took it out too wide, where there was no blocking.....hence the result.

b. The only one I heard that agreed with this opinion was very surprisingly, Tony Mazzarotti, a guy with so LITTLE football credibility, he makes me ashamed I'm also a Tufts grad.

c. I think that one of the reason's BB went for the 4th down play, was the condition of our safety situation. Chung was out and Merriweather got dinged in the series just before that play. Thus with having to play Sanders (not generally a good pass defender) and a completely inexperienced Sergio Brown, BB didn't have much of a choice. With over 2 minutes and 3 TO's time wouldn't have been an issue for SD. With the talent he had out there, he'd HAVE to play safe, especially if the Pats had a long field to defend. If that Pats HAD punted, do you really think that it would have taken Rivers long to get from his 15 to the 50 against a soft Pats Defense? I don't, so what did he really have to lose, compared to what he had to gain?

d. I read a lot that the last SD FG attempt would have been good if they hadn't gotten the procedure penalty. I don't think so. In fact the extra 5 yds helped the kid. It was hooking right to left. It it had been shorter, it wouldn't have even hit the upright.

e You know that is a pretty good SD team. Their stats back that up, but all the mental errors aside, you can tell that they are good. The good news is that we got the win. The better news is that Jets still have to play them.

3.Any one who thinks that Pats offense is "better" without Randy Moss is delusional. What it is, is DIFFERENT. Whether it ends up being better, only time will tell.

4. Brian Baldinger opined that it was being changed specifically to beat the Jets. I disagree Its being designed to be more efficient in bad weather of the NE. Its designed to be more ball control and eat up time to protect a young defense. Its being designed to better fit their QB, who in my opinion has never been an accurate deep passer, while being VERY accurate up to 20-25 yds. Its being designed to fit a QB who thrived when he knew exactly where every receiver was supposed to be and had receivers who hit those spots.

Again, only time will tell if this change in both personnel and philosophy in mid-stream will end up being a good thing. Still I can't help notice that compared to the rest of the league, where 6'3+ WRs are now common place, our WRs "don't measure up".

5. Speaking of big receivers, I'm wondering just when will the Pats start to incorporate the Gronk in some deeper routes....and not just have him as a GL specialist. Between Hernandez and him, it would go a long way to mitigate our smurf WRs situation.

6.There was a great thread about the disturbing nature of some defensive stats, especially 3rd down conversions (32nd in the league). Since I'm usually one who sees the upside of things, allow me to put it in some kind of perspective.

I thought it was pretty much conventional wisdom that the defense would start slow, and we'd all hope that by the last third of the season, it would start to get better in time for the playoffs. And this was BEFORE Warren and Boddin were IRed, Butler slipped, and Wheatly "crabelled...again" I thought the general consensus was that we HOPED that the offense would carry us to a good enough record that when the defense started to gel, it would be in time for a real playoff run. The Jets showed last year, anything can happen, once the tournament commences.

What IS surprising is that our offense suddenly is now in kind of a similar situation. Its an offense in transition. Its an offense that is going to take a few weeks to find it self. AND what is the most surprising is that, despite the fact that the best is yet to come for this team for BOTH the offense and defense; NO ONE in the NFL has a better record than we do.

Think about that....and the poor stats won't bother you.....as much

7. ESPN's continual BJ of Bret Farve is really starting to annoy me. I mean several "experts have publicly stated that Farve's "broken" foot, while technically a fracture, it is nothing more than a sprain. Yet ESPN doesn't mention his name without mentioning the Fracture, as if ONLY Farve would be capable of playing with such an injury.

This kind of reminds me of all the adoration ESPN gave Steve McNair, because every time he got a bruise he announced it to the world. When you compare it to Brady's refusal to even mention injuries when he played through several, it just pisses me off.

8. That being said, I'm pretty sure Farve will play. And I'm also sure that he is still capable of torching the Pats. Think about his performance 2 years ago. Several TDs and NO TO's in that Thursday night game. Granted its now MORE likely that he'll turn it over a couple of times, but not a certainty

9. Plus you have to add the fact that he has Adrian Peterson, Randy Moss, Percy Harvin, and the TE whose name I won't even attempt to spell, let alone pronounce. If that set of skill players don't scare you, especially against our suspect D, they you aren't being realistic. Yet I keep hearing from local media that they expect this game to be double digit win. God I hope they are right.

10. The good news is, when I look at our schedule there isn't a game there they we are not capable of winning. The bad news is that if we don't play our A game; there isn't a game there that we aren't capable of losing as well.

BOTTOM LINE - So far, so good, in what looks to be a VERY interesting and entertaining season. Enjoy the game.

 

[Captain Cliche]

I'm suprised the offense appears so out of sinc. I didn't see the last game, but the one before there were bad throws, dropped passes, and a lot of missed opportunities. I expected them to carry the team in the early part of the season. Maybe because they were transitioning before they shipped Moss out.

BB realy is the master...5 and 1....not bad for a young team in transition. Who else has the nuts to trade a player like Moss during the season?

Nothing BB does is random. He habitually goes for it on 4th and short. I think it is more of a statistical thing and less of a "non-vote of confidence" for the defense. Maybe he sees it as 4 downs to make 10 yards and put the nail in the coffin. I recall a high school
coach that basically refuses to punt the ball during the game. I think he did a statistical analysis and it made more sense to treat every set of downs as 4 to get 10.
High School OT.com - High school team refuses to punt
I am sure there are other factors, like a tight field position type game, or position on the field, etc.

The other thing I bet BB does more than any other coach is call defensive time outs. Slow the game down and let your defense get their s*** together.

 

[Nikolai]

1. Actually this is my 3rd attempt at a post this week. The first one I did right after the SD game, and for some reason, it disappeared overnight. The second time was on Wednesday, but when I tried to submit it, it got lost and I was too discouraged to start again. I'm hoping the 3rd time is the charm.

Glad to see this at last. It's becoming one of my favorite weekly segments anywhere.

b. The only one I heard that agreed with this opinion was very surprisingly, Tony Mazzarotti, a guy with so LITTLE football credibility, he makes me ashamed I'm also a Tufts grad.

Tsk, tsk, tsk. I didn't go to Tufts, but I did some research with Tufts students and faculty; great school, to be sure. Maybe his GPA wasn't that high? :confused2:

d. I read a lot that the last SD FG attempt would have been good if they hadn't gotten the procedure penalty. I don't think so. In fact the extra 5 yds helped the kid. It was hooking right to left. It it had been shorter, it wouldn't have even hit the upright.

This is worth quoting again. That's exactly how I saw it. As it was happening, I thought, "d%#*!@t! Those five yards got them the FG!"

e You know that is a pretty good SD team. Their stats back that up, but all the mental errors aside, you can tell that they are good. The good news is that we got the win. The better news is that Jets still have to play them.

Yep, I think the Chargers will have yet another of their late-season surges. We can all just hope the Jest find themselves in the path of that tornado.

5. Speaking of big receivers, I'm wondering just when will the Pats start to incorporate the Gronk in some deeper routes....and not just have him as a GL specialist. Between Hernandez and him, it would go a long way to mitigate our smurf WRs situation.

I've wondered this too. I don't have game tape or the benefit of observing his practices, but I wonder if Gronk maybe isn't running his routes precisely enough to get involved in the intermediate passing game. Otherwise, I'm with you; just wondering what's the deal.

9. Plus you have to add the fact that he has Adrian Peterson, Randy Moss, Percy Harvin, and the TE whose name I won't even attempt to spell, let alone pronounce. If that set of skill players don't scare you, especially against our suspect D, they you aren't being realistic. Yet I keep hearing from local media that they expect this game to be double digit win. God I hope they are right.

Yes, Visanthe Shiancoe scares me. TEs in his mold have historically tore the Pats apart. Depending on Minny's QB situation, I expect either Shiancoe or Harvin to have a big day, but that doesn't necessarily equate to a Viking win. We'll have to see.

 

[Zeus]

Good post. I had the same thought on the FG attempt as well.

One minor correction - jets do not play San Diego. Pats and jets play same opponents (AFC East, AFC North, NFC Central) with two exceptions:

AFC South - NE plays Colts, jets play Houston.

AFC West - NE played at SD, jets played at Denver.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

. BJGE blew the 4th down play. If you look at the replay they did from behind the QB, you will see that if he had followed Connolly he'd have made the yardage. Instead he took it out too wide, where there was no blocking.....hence the result.

I agree BJGE could have done a better job of following the blocking and probably would have gotten the first down. However, that was blocked poorly. Hernandez got beat inside and Crumpler fell on his face trying to block Applewhite, who made the play in the backfield. It's a team game. When BB says you should be able to get a yard, this is what he means. You need multiple breakdowns to get stuffed on 3rd or 4th and one. U-g-l-y.

3.Any one who thinks that Pats offense is "better" without Randy Moss is delusional. What it is, is DIFFERENT. Whether it ends up being better, only time will tell.

Unless they find a way to run some effective deep routes, they're going to get crowded like they were by SD. Even if nobody can receive a fly or post like Moss whose size made him a huge threat on the over-the-top routes, Tate can run the medium-deep routes that Indy uses as their bread and butter. Tate's speed makes the threat of a post, fly, or corner real, so deep outs, deep ins, and short posts can open up once the defender turns his hips. Hernandez's speed makes seam and skinny post routes a threat, too. However, I'm not sure Branch and Welker have the speed to convincingly threaten the deep part of the field, and that's going to limit our 2 TE offense.

Maybe Tate gets more reps this week with Branch ailing, and he and Brady start to work something out. Still, deeper routes require better pass protection, and there are trade-offs to replacing Branch with Tate on the timing patterns the Pats prefer. Like you said, work in progress. I'll feel better when Taylor gets back.

5. Speaking of big receivers, I'm wondering just when will the Pats start to incorporate the Gronk in some deeper routes....and not just have him as a GL specialist. Between Hernandez and him, it would go a long way to mitigate our smurf WRs situation.

I havent seen anything to suggest that he's a great receiver with his back to the LOS, so I'm not sure he's gong to be a deep threat. He hangs around on pass protection more than Hernandez, but I think they could use him more as a receiver. He could be the Coates-type receiver who is, by virtue of his size, open every play. This could be a big weapon against a crowded short field, even when he doesn't leave that short field himself. Hernandez running a deep seam to clear out space for Gronk on an underneath route would be something I'd expect to see be more effective.

6.There was a great thread about the disturbing nature of some defensive stats, especially 3rd down conversions (32nd in the league). Since I'm usually one who sees the upside of things, allow me to put it in some kind of perspective.

...

what is the most surprising is that, despite the fact that the best is yet to come for this team for BOTH the offense and defense; NO ONE in the NFL has a better record than we do.

Think about that....and the poor stats won't bother you.....as much

I'm happy to see the good record. It shows a tough team that can win tough games. However, there's no getting around last on third down. It speaks to a fundamental weakness in our rush/coverage combination that can get exploited. There's little I see to suggest that the rush is going to improve soon (although I'd like to see Wilfork get a chance when we're in the sub package for quarters at a time). However, the coverage is improving and maybe as the coverage gets better, BB can mix up their blitz packages more. This remains a point of concern. I expect the Steelers to Crush the Pats in two weeks time, and unless Fred Taylor gets back to take advantage of Indy's defense, I'm not hopeful for that game either. Still, the Pats are likely to be in the playoffs, and mental toughness, good coaching, and young talent that the can win or lose any game will make this a fun run.

 

[harrylime70]

As usual a great post Ken, from someone who is perceptive but can also step back and make some constructive (that being the key word) criticism when he needs to. I particularly like points 3 and 4 and think you are spot on!!

 

[Patspsycho]

a. BJGE blew the 4th down play. If you look at the replay they did from behind the QB, you will see that if he had followed Connolly he'd have made the yardage. Instead he took it out too wide, where there was no blocking.....hence the result.

Your dislike of BJGE is evident. If you look at it from the goal-line camera then it does look like that, but from the sideline view, you will see Crumpler fail to block at all, and his man is the one who easily shed him and shaded outside to stop BJGE. We've been over this countless times. The major reason this play failed was because it was the third time we had used it in that game, (the crucial first down and the BJGE TD) so the Chargers were more than ready for it.

 

[CrazedChariot]

Great Read.

One thing I am suprised no one has brought up in the decision to go for it on fourth down, is our long snapping.

It was absolutley horrendous in the start of the game. Considering the pressure of the moment, I'm not surprised that Bill didn't want the game in the hands of Ingram.

 

[patfanken]

Great Read.

One thing I am suprised no one has brought up in the decision to go for it on fourth down, is our long snapping.

It was absolutley horrendous in the start of the game. Considering the pressure of the moment, I'm not surprised that Bill didn't want the game in the hands of Ingram.

That's a good point. I had forgotten that. No question that the punt snap was an adventure all day. Lets hope that it was just a "bad day", and doesn't turn into a Chuck Knoblock thing.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Glad you finally got a chance to post these, always look forward to reading them. Third time's the charm.

Regarding the offense, the early returns aren't very good. But this offense is still growing in many ways, and would be even with Moss here. We were transitioning to more 2 TE sets, less spread/shotgun, while trying to emphasize the run, all without our Pro Bowl left guard. There were bumps in the road before we traded Moss, and I'd expect a few more bumps after. But the real test will be how this offense looks at the end of the season and into the play-offs.

And a lot of people seem to be taking the Vikings for granted. This is a team with 10 Pro Bowlers from last season, one of the best DLs in the game, and some explosive options on offense. Yes, they're 2-4. 3 of those losses were on the road to play-off teams last season (at defending-champion NO in week 1, at Jets, at Green Bay). We're still finding our way on offense and defense. There's no way this game should be taken so lightly.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, the offense is in transition. I also expect us to use Gronk more as an intermediate and deep pass threat.

I think that Brady will find it increasingly difficult if there is no credible deep threat. Yes, it made a big difference when Moss took one or two defenders deep with him. Stretching the filed is important even in a dink and dunk offense.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Yes, the offense is in transition. I also expect us to use Gronk more as an intermediate and deep pass threat.

I think that Brady will find it increasingly difficult if there is no credible deep threat. Yes, it made a big difference when Moss took one or two defenders deep with him. Stretching the filed is important even in a dink and dunk offense.

It's a wonder Tom won 3 Lombardis and made it to 4 out of 6 conference championships before Moss ever set foot here...

 

[patfanken]

I think what we have to see is Brady using Tate and take a couple of shots downfield. He has the speed. We just have to make a commitment to do it. Thus far we haven't. Until we do, teams are going to squeeze the offense week by week. Mgtech isn't wrong, but neither is Mo