Reiss: Interesting that Pats used NO shotgun formation during winning drive

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Shotgun not part of winning drive - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

I spoke about this a month ago and with Moss gone now it appears this offense now more than ever would be more productive and keep defenses honest with Brady under center more and less shotgun.

The fact that the Patriots drove down the field in overtime without using the shotgun really confused the Ravens who had kept the Pats offense in check much of the game.

Maybe without Moss stretching the field, Brady should be under center more?

I wish I remembered what formations the Pats used more often in the SB years and especially when Branch was here.

Of course the shotgun needs to be used as we have been effective with it over the years,but how much change if any?

 

[Synovia]

Did they use the shotgun any in the 4 previous drives where they went 3-and-out?

 

[borg]

Thank Woodhead. His success forced Balt. to bite on play action.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Did they use the shotgun any in the 4 previous drives where they went 3-and-out?

I don't know..would be interesting for those who DVRed it to answer that question.

 

[Fencer]

I wish I remembered what formations the Pats used more often in the SB years and especially when Branch was here.

From memory, shotgun use was concentrated on 2-minute drill, third-and-long, etc. Brady loved it, and it appeared to be part of the reason for his success at the 2-minute drill.

One complication was that Damien Woody couldn't reliably shotgun snap, to the point that Mike Compton switched spots on the line with him when a shotgun snap was need.

 

[The Dynasty]

From memory, shotgun use was concentrated on 2-minute drill, third-and-long, etc. Brady loved it, and it appeared to be part of the reason for his success at the 2-minute drill.

One complication was that Damien Woody couldn't reliably shotgun snap, to the point that Mike Compton switched spots on the line with him when a shotgun snap was need.

Yeah definitely, I would say Brady was in the shotgun probably 60-70% of the time. He loves the gun especially in the 2 minute drill and on critical 3rd down. I would like to see Brady under center more on 1st and 2nd down so the run can be more of a factor and can set up play action

 

[TheComeback]

Thank Woodhead. His success forced Balt. to bite on play action.

This. Good gameplan from the Patriots in the 2nd half. Nice to know we've got a great outside runner when we need him. He can break some tackles too.

 

[captain stone]

All the more reason that Fractured Fred Taylor (or somebody else, if he doesn't want to do it any longer) return to the backfield to further legitimize the threat of the running game.

It's kinda hard to effectively use play-action if your #1 RB (by default) averaged only 2 ypc last week.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Thank Woodhead. His success forced Balt. to bite on play action.

He's pretty shifty isn't he...

 

[lamafist]

All the more reason that Fractured Fred Taylor (or somebody else, if he doesn't want to do it any longer) return to the backfield to further legitimize the threat of the running game.

It's kinda hard to effectively use play-action if your #1 RB (by default) averaged only 2 ypc last week.

"Fractured" over "Fragile"?

Bold choice.

 

[aluminum seats]

I would hope that Brady "loving" the shotgun wouldn't lead to using it more than they should.

 

[lamafist]

Curious, maybe... interesting? Not quite.

Instead of cherry-picking one drive of one game, and trying to extrapolate about the Pats' use of the shotgun from that, why not, I dunno, consider every drive of every game? Every snap even?

At FootballOutsiders, they actually keep split stats of shotgun vs. under center. (I'd link, but it's pay-wallled.) The Pats average 7.1 yards per play out of the shotgun, and 4.9 yards per play under center. The former number puts them in a virtual dead heat with Dallas and New Orleans for best in the league out of the gun; the latter earns them a sub-par 21st in the league from under center. The 2.1 yard improvement from under center to shotgun is the third biggest improvement in YPC under shotgun.

The differential is even more glaring when you look at DVOA, but I'll assume that anyone who understands what DVOA is doesn't need to be convinced that the Pats don't need to use the shotgun less.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Shotgun not part of winning drive - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

I wish I remembered what formations the Pats used more often in the SB years and especially when Branch was here.

I think that was the "win" formation on three....

 

[lamafist]

Also... knowing/guessing how much the Patriots used shotgun in seasons past isn't going to tell you anything useful about whether the shotgun formation "caused" championship seasons or not, it'll tell you more about how the vicissitudes of our various seasons, championship and otherwise, "caused" us to use shotgun more or less frequently.

For example, teams that face third and long more often will use shotgun a lot more. Teams that trail games will use shotgun more. Teams with stronger running games use shotgun less. Teams with RBs who can't catch or pass protect use shotgun less. Teams with young QBs often use shotgun more, to give their signal-caller a better view of the defense.

My guess is that if you had the splits for the seasons, you'd see that the 2004 Pats probably used a lot less shotgun than the 2003 Pats. Both teams finished 14-2 and won the SB. But the '04 Pats had a much higher average margin of victory, and spent a lot more time running out the clock at the end of games. Also, the '03 Pats had a pretty horrible rushing attack. This put them in 3rd and long more often, and also made keeping the play-action threat open less necessary.

One thing that does tell you something, however, is that the overall league average % of plays from shotgun is steadily rising, and so far has yet to be met with much in the way of diminished returns.

 

[skinnydog]

I would hope that Brady "loving" the shotgun wouldn't lead to using it more than they should.

I think there's no question this happened.

 

[Kontradiction]

Why would they have used it? They were running the ball particularly well in the second half and that opened up the play action. Going into shotgun would have allowed Baltimore to pin their ears back and come after Brady. Not doing so kept them honest and, along with the short and precise passes and routes, helped slow down the Ravens' pass rush.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

we also used no shotgun formation during what would have been the game winning drive in SB 42. too bad mcdaniels couldn't figure out that keeping brady in shotgun for basically most of that game helped the giants.

 

[Joker]

Curious, maybe... interesting? Not quite.

Instead of cherry-picking one drive of one game, and trying to extrapolate about the Pats' use of the shotgun from that, why not, I dunno, consider every drive of every game? Every snap even?

At FootballOutsiders, they actually keep split stats of shotgun vs. under center. (I'd link, but it's pay-wallled.) The Pats average 7.1 yards per play out of the shotgun, and 4.9 yards per play under center. The former number puts them in a virtual dead heat with Dallas and New Orleans for best in the league out of the gun; the latter earns them a sub-par 21st in the league from under center. The 2.1 yard improvement from under center to shotgun is the third biggest improvement in YPC under shotgun.

The differential is even more glaring when you look at DVOA, but I'll assume that anyone who understands what DVOA is doesn't need to be convinced that the Pats don't need to use the shotgun less.

Thanx fore the reply...saved me the time to make a post wondering why every day there's always five to ten new threads from the same poster wondering why all these things he sees seem real bad or are real important proofs that prove one of his ongoing agendas ,in this case his pathological hating on Moss.

This constant dancing in the mud, reliving past straw men and scarecrows, makes me wonder if he is really a fan of the Patriots at all.

 

[BlueThunder]

Also... knowing/guessing how much the Patriots used shotgun in seasons past isn't going to tell you anything useful about whether the shotgun formation "caused" championship seasons or not, it'll tell you more about how the vicissitudes of our various seasons, championship and otherwise, "caused" us to use shotgun more or less frequently..

Anyone who uses the word "vicissitudes" on a football forum should be banned.

 

[captain stone]

"Fractured" over "Fragile"?

Bold choice.

Actually, wrong choice. You're right, his nickname while in Jax was "Fragile"; I just mis-remembered, knowing that it began with fra...

And I appreciate - and am not surprised by - the stats you showed of the shotgun vs. under-center ypa. However, one needs to take into account, as you have already done, that such disparities can occur because sometimes when the offense is in the shotgun, it is trailing in the game and the opposition defense is using some version of a Prevent lineup that allows for larger chunks of yardage. Conversely, sometimes when the offense is under center, just a couple of yards are needed to move the chains, and just those yards are gained.

Statistics, like other facts of life, need context to reveal their true significance. And so as in life, one needs to enjoy everything in moderation, and moderation in everything. The shotgun formation has its role in both passing- and non-passing situations, because the best way to defeat an NFL-calibre defense, when talent is so evenly distributed, is to keep the defense off-balance & guessing. And that's why even if a shotgun is called, I would never, ever, use it without a RB to serve as extra protection, as a check-down, and as a running threat.