NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Plain and simple, the Patriots shouldn't have problems scoring. The Dolphins are eighth versus the pass, but that figure is skewed because of Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 and a Percy Harvin-less Brett Favre in Week 2. Mark Sanchez sliced and diced Miami's secondary on Sunday night. Tom Brady shouldn't have any issues moving the chains all evening.
I will say this though - I don't think Randy Moss is nearly the same guy we saw dominate back in 2007. He has just nine receptions in three games. Yes, he caught two touchdowns last week to make his fantasy owners happy (including my opponent in my touchdown league - ARGH), but those were his only two catches.
Credit Brady though for moving away from Moss and concentrating more on feeding his new targets. This includes rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez, who has already established himself as a dynamic threat. The Dolphins had major problems stopping Dustin Keller last week, and will have similar issues with Hernandez.
MIAMI OFFENSE: New England's defense is terrible. The Patriots are getting run over (26th) and torched through the air (23th). Ryan Fitzpatrick made Bills fans forget about Jim Kelly last week. OK, maybe not.
Like New England, Miami won't have any trouble scoring. Ronnie Brown will finally be able to put together a dominant performance, setting up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Chad Henne.
Henne had a great game last week, going 26-of-44 for 363 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Darrelle Revis was out of the lineup and that helped, but it's not like the Patriots have anyone to contain Henne, Brandon Marshall and the rest of the Dolphin receivers.
RECAP: Most of the public is betting New England, thinking that the Patriots are a lock since all Brady has to do is win.
I feel this is a mistake. Miami is Brady's house of horrors. Brady is just 3-5 against the spread at the Dolphins. Let's dissect those three spread victories:
1. 2003: Patriots 19, Dolphins 13. Miami dominated this contest, but botched two field goals off the dirt (one at the end of regulation, one in overtime). Brady hit Troy Brown on an 82-yard game-winning touchdown on the next play after the missed kick by Olindo Mare. This was a special New England team that went on to win the Super Bowl and didn't even lose until Halloween 2004.
2. 2005: Patriots 23, Dolphins 16. This Miami team lost at Cleveland the following week, 22-0. They were 3-7 after 11 weeks.
3. 2007: Patriots 49, Dolphins 28. The Patriots were undefeated this season. The Dolphins went 1-15.
So, the only times New England has covered at Miami is when the Dolphins were terrible and/or the Patriots were special. This Dolphins squad obviously doesn't stink, and this version of the Patriots clearly isn't special.
