GRONK and Hernandez: best TE duo so far

[ctpatsfan77]

Football Outsiders ranks offensive skill players based on their production compared to what an average player would do on a given down and distance. For example, if on 1st-and-10 from the 50, a TE would be expected to get 4 yards on a pass play, a TE who gets more than 4 yards produces positive value, but one who gets less than 4 yards produces negative value. They quantify this value as DYAR, or defense-adjusted yards above replacement.

Looking only at pass plays, here are their top 10 TEs so far:

1. Antonio Gates, SD, 113 DYAR
2. Jermichael Finley, GB, 92
3. Tony Gonzalez, ATL, 75
4. Aaron Hernandez, NE, 70
5. Dustin Keller, JEST, 56
6. Dallas Clark, IND, 49
7. Rob Gronkowski, NE, 43
8. Jeremy Shockey, NO, 41
9. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, 39
10. Marcedes Lewis, JAX, 35

They also break it down by another metric, DVOA, which adjusts for number of plays (so 10% means that TE does, on average, 10% better per play than would be expected for an average TE):

1. Rob Gronkowski, NE, 97.4% DVOA
2. Antonio Gates, SD, 63.5%
3. Jermichael Finley, GB, 60.5%
4. Aaron Hernandez, NE, 58.4%
5. Tony Gonzalez, ATL, 56.6%
6. Jim Kleinsasser, MIN, 35.6%
7. Evan Moore, CLE, 31.7%
8. Jeremy Shockey, NO, 30.2%
9. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, 27.0%
10. Dustin Keller, JEST, 26.5%

And, again, remember that this doesn't include such "intangibles" as, you know, GRONK's blocking ability.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Football Outsiders ranks offensive skill players based on their production compared to what an average player would do on a given down and distance. For example, if on 1st-and-10 from the 50, a TE would be expected to get 4 yards on a pass play, a TE who gets more than 4 yards produces positive value, but one who gets less than 4 yards produces negative value. They quantify this value as DYAR, or defense-adjusted yards above replacement.

Looking only at pass plays, here are their top 10 TEs so far:

1. Antonio Gates, SD, 113 DYAR
2. Jermichael Finley, GB, 92
3. Tony Gonzalez, ATL, 75
4. Aaron Hernandez, NE, 70
5. Dustin Keller, JEST, 56
6. Dallas Clark, IND, 49
7. Rob Gronkowski, NE, 43
8. Jeremy Shockey, NO, 41
9. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, 39
10. Marcedes Lewis, JAX, 35

They also break it down by another metric, DVOA, which adjusts for number of plays (so 10% means that TE does, on average, 10% better per play than would be expected for an average TE):

1. Rob Gronkowski, NE, 97.4% DVOA
2. Antonio Gates, SD, 63.5%
3. Jermichael Finley, GB, 60.5%
4. Aaron Hernandez, NE, 58.4%
5. Tony Gonzalez, ATL, 56.6%
6. Jim Kleinsasser, MIN, 35.6%
7. Evan Moore, CLE, 31.7%
8. Jeremy Shockey, NO, 30.2%
9. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, 27.0%
10. Dustin Keller, JEST, 26.5%

And, again, remember that this doesn't include such "intangibles" as, you know, GRONK's blocking ability.

They are both very impressive rookies, and I think having Crumpler around is helping them immensely. You have to be excited about their futures, both have potential to be Pro Bowl type TE's, though they are both different type of TE's. Though Gonzalez may have better stats, I may be more impressed with Gronkowksi so far, a beast of a blocker with great overall physical skills.

 

[Goal_Line_Stand]

Wow! Who needs a duo when you have Antonio Gates!? (as much as I hate SD)

But yeah.. Great production between both of them. God only know how much better they would be if they got more opportunities instead of feeding Moss some crappy low %, down field desperation plays. (No issue with Moss just the crappy decision making)

 

[Sivy]

I still cant Believe the patriots landed both these guys..I think these guys could make a differnce between a win and a loss. People seem to focous on the troubles with D..but remember the Red Zone trouble of last year? A couple of TDs instead of FGs and we win those games..these guys are nice. One of them will Get ROY.

 

[The Brandon Five]

One of them will Get ROY.

I just replaced Gronk with Hernandez on my fantasy team, so it will probably be Gronk.

 

[HowardRoark]

I really love these guys.

 

[BradyManny]

I just replaced Gronk with Hernandez on my fantasy team, so it will probably be Gronk.

I have Hernandez as well, so you're probably right. Hernandez is a good fantasy player for me in a 2TE league. Gronk may have more TDs and points by year's end, but Hernandez's ability to consistently churn out yards makes him more reliable on a week to week basis.

 

[stinkypete]

I still cant Believe the patriots landed both these guys..I think these guys could make a differnce between a win and a loss. People seem to focous on the troubles with D..but remember the Red Zone trouble of last year? A couple of TDs instead of FGs and we win those games..these guys are nice. One of them will Get ROY.

Both players should have been borderline 1st round picks. Hernandez in particular was a phenomenal steal.

ROY? I'm not so sure. If Jhavid Best continues racking up yards and TDs like he is, he'll be the clear winner.

 

[GoWhalers]

How good of a blocker is Gronk actually? I haven't been paying enough attention to him specifically, but I'm curious to hear from others who have.

Is he up there with Daniel Graham as a run-blocker? How about picking up DEs on pass-blocking?

 

[Uncle Rico]

I've mentioned this before but, before the draft National Football Post actually had Hernandez ahead of both Gresham and Gronk as the top TE. I think they had Gronk second. (Link doesn't work anymore since they switched things around).

So young too -- to think that when Hernandez is the same age as a lot of rookies (22) he'll be entering his third NFL season.

 

[Axeshun]

I love what Hernandez brings to our offensive attack. He's been fantastic thus far.

 

[JackBauer]

If things pan out, it'll kind of be like having Todd Heap and Dallas Clark on the same team, from the same draft.

Not bad.

 

[WhiteWesWelker88]

most impressive.


I had no doubts on either of these guys.

 

[Calciumee]

One of them will Get ROY.

I know Pro Football Weekly has Hernz as #9 on the ROY watch after week 2

 

[Calciumee]

I know Pro Football Weekly has Hernz as #9 on the ROY watch after week 2

And this week he is #6!

6. Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez (4, 113)
Last week's ranking: 9

Hernandez leads all rookies with 211 yards receiving through three games. He had six grabs for 65 yards on seven targets in the Patriots' 38-30 victory over the Bills on Sunday. The biggest thing going against Hernandez is that Tom Brady tends to give the touchdowns to fellow rookie TE Rob Gronkowski. Two of Gronkowski's five receptions this season have been TDs. But even with Wes Welker and Randy Moss, Brady is finding ways to get Hernandez the ball.

ProFootballWeekly.com - Rookie Meter: Best rookie receivers not WRs

 

[WhiteWesWelker88]

If Hernandez keeps up his amazing productivity....


There is no way in hell He should/would lose the ROY award.


none.

 

[Kontradiction]

I suspect that, as the season goes on, the coaching staff will continue to take the leash off of Gronk and allow him to run routes. Coming into the season, I thought Hernandez would be our best rookie on offense and he's proving me right. But he's going above and beyond what even I had imagined for him (600 receiving yards). The future is very bright for us at the TE position.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I suspect that, as the season goes on, the coaching staff will continue to take the leash off of Gronk and allow him to run routes. Coming into the season, I thought Hernandez would be our best rookie on offense and he's proving me right. But he's going above and beyond what even I had imagined for him (600 receiving yards). The future is very bright for us at the TE position.

Might have to start wearing shades when watching the game.

I'm very interested to see how our offense shifts as it's been awhile since we've had this level of quality for TEs. I wonder if BB has a decade's worth of offensive plays up his sleeve, just waiting for thr talent to pull it off

 

[Calciumee]

Might have to start wearing shades when watching the game.

I'm very interested to see how our offense shifts as it's been awhile since we've had this level of quality for TEs. I wonder if BB has a decade's worth of offensive plays up his sleeve, just waiting for thr talent to pull it off

Now I am imaging Mrs. BB asking every year 'when are you going to use them TE plays that have been in the kitchen for years?'


'soon enough...'

 

[BlueThunder]

How good of a blocker is Gronk actually? I haven't been paying enough attention to him specifically, but I'm curious to hear from others who have.

Is he up there with Daniel Graham as a run-blocker? How about picking up DEs on pass-blocking?

BJGE picked up almost 100yds on the ground last week....Gronk's blocking had a bit to do with that stat I'm sure....

A couple guys here can probably break down the game film and tell us exactly how much was because of his blocking. :rocker: