Patriots have #1 offense (PPG) in the NFL

[upstater1]

You guys are absolutely beating this issue about long balls to death.

None of you would have counseled that Brady go long to Moss for a 40 yard TD on Sunday.

It used to be this board was full of complainers that the Patriots never tried to stretch the field.

How quickly 2006 has been forgotten!!

 

[A.C Vegas]

Brady's stats:
vs. Cin - 25-35 (71.4%), 258 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 7.4 ypa
vs. NYJ - 20-36 (55.6%), 248 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 6.9 ypa
vs. Buf - 21-27 (77.8%), 252 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 9.3 ypa
TOT - 66-98 (67.3%), 758 yds, 8 td, 2 int, 7.7 ypa

Welker/Moss/Receivers:
vs. Cin - 7 different receivers, Moss (5), Welker (8)
vs. NYJ - 8 different receivers, Moss (2), Welker (6)
vs. Buf - 7 different receivers, Moss (2), Welker (4)

In three games so far, here's the reception distribution:

Welker - 18 rec, 147 yds, 3 td
Hernandez - 13 rec, 211 yds, 0 td
Moss - 9 rec, 139 yds, 3 td
Tate - 7 rec, 96 yds, 0 td
Faulk - 6 rec, 62 yds, 0 td
Gronkowski - 5 rec, 52 yds, 2 td
Edelman - 4 rec, 14 yds, 0 td
Taylor - 2 rec, 6 yds, 0 td
Morris - 1 rec, 19 yds, 0 td
Green-Ellis - 1 rec, 6 yds, 0 td

So 10 guys have caught passes for them in 3 games. Welker is accounting for 27% of the catches and 19% of the yards. Moss has nearly 14% of the catches for 18% of the yards. That means that their top 2 WR are accounting for 41% of the catches and 38% (I'm rounding off) of the yards.

Compare that with the Colts. Manning has 87 completions (to 9 different receivers) for 1013 yards. Their top 3 receivers:

Collie: 27 rec, 359 yds (31% of rec, 35% of yds)
Clark: 21 rec, 207 yds (24% of rec, 20% of yds)
Wayne: 18 rec, 260 yds (21% of rec, 26% of yds)

Their top 3 guys account for 76% of their receptions and 81% of their yards, compared with the Patriots top 3 (Moss, Welker, Hernandez) of 45% of their receptions and 66% of their yards.

It's pretty clear that Brady is spreading it around. And the results are what they are: a very high-octane offense that can put up a ton of points.

In terms of targets, which may be a better indicator of what you're talking about, here are the target numbers of each team's top 3:

Indianapolis (Manning, 126 attempts):
Collie - 32 targets (25.3% of att), 27 rec
Clark - 27 targets (21.4% of att), 21 rec
Wayne - 26 targets (20.6% of att), 18 rec
TOT - 85 targets (67.4% of att)

New England (Brady, 98 attempts):
Welker - 24 targets (24.4% of att), 18 rec
Hernandez - 15 targets (15.3% of att), 13 rec
Moss - 21 targets (21.4% of att), 9 rec
TOT - 60 targets (61.2% of att)

Brady does a better job than Peyton Manning at spreading it around, both in design (measured by targets) and by results (measured by receptions). The Pats don't have a problem with Brady being too fixated on one or two receivers.

Shhhhh you can't tell the "locked in" group these facts they'll find something else to chicken little about jsut let it go

 

[Synovia]

Defense wins championships.

Except in the years when it doesnt? LIke half the time.

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

It didn't last year. The Saints defense was average at best, but good enough to support their dominant offense.

They had a defense complementary to their offense. It might not have been statistically great, but the sum of the two was greater than the parts.

EDIT: on topic, the Pats offense is 58% on third downs so far this season... the next on the list is 51%

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

A top ranked offense + a defense that ranks barely above the last place Lions and Bills?... = fail

You need to have at least a mid-pack ranked defense to go anywhere in the playoffs...this defense has a LOOOONNNNGGG way to go to get there.

 

[Teenuh]

On the brighter side of things, after 3 weeks of football the Patriots have the highest scoring offense in the NFL.

Packers were #1 coming into to tonight but fell to fourth. Do you see the Patriots still having the best offense by the end of the season? Do you think the Colts, Packers, Chargers or Texans are better?

As I've said in other threads my biggest problems with the offense are the low-% long shots that often end up incomplete and end up putting you in 3rd and long situations. Taylor looks good to start games, then disappears.

Of course we do! We probably have the most feared group of recievers in the league with Moss, Welker, Herdandez, Gronk and Tate.

 

[Sicilian]

The ranking of the offense doesn't really impress me. I want to see that they can play a variety of different opponents and still move the ball effectively. They started out fine against the Jets but couldn't sustain it. If we play well against Miami it's a good start.

I think this offense has all the tools and weapons it needs to be a multi-faceted and consistent machine. Whether they live up to that potential week to week is why football is fun to watch.

 

[condon84]

A top ranked offense + a defense that ranks barely above the last place Lions and Bills?... = fail

You need to have at least a mid-pack ranked defense to go anywhere in the playoffs...this defense has a LOOOONNNNGGG way to go to get there.

Our defense has played awful, but the league has evolved to cater to high powered passing offenses. If our offense can shake off the second half bug and be as productive as they are in the first half, I don't see why we can't make a run in the playoffs.

Even against the Ravens playoff game last year, if our offense had put up a fight, we still could have been in that game and put ourselves in a position to win. Also against the Jets, if our offense stayed productive in the second half, we had a good chance to win that game as well.

The Saints won last year with a defense ranked 23(?) in the league.

 

[SVN]

in my opinion colts are the #1 offense in the league. no offense scares you more with the threat of a TD on every drive. other teams may have talent e.g dallas,houston but they are prone to inconsistency and indiscipline .
just my 2 cents

 

[JMarr]

Defense wins championships.

+1. Three words can say a lot. Every year the Pats won the SB it was mainly because of the defense. The 2007 defense was very solid as well. Brady, Welker, Moss and Co. will again be an offensive juggarnaut, but nothing they can do will be able to overcome a struggling defense.

 

[Teenuh]

Defense doesn't win championships in today's nfl. Those days are gone because of all the new rules that kind of limits the defense. Now the teams with the amazing defenses (such as the jets and ravens) can't compete with the passing games of the Saints, Colts, etc....

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

A top ranked offense + a defense that ranks barely above the last place Lions and Bills?... = fail

You need to have at least a mid-pack ranked defense to go anywhere in the playoffs...this defense has a LOOOONNNNGGG way to go to get there.

Peyton Manning's Colts say Hi!

23rd ranked D in 2006 when winning his lone SB

 

[51Hits]

Brady's stats:
vs. Cin - 25-35 (71.4%), 258 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 7.4 ypa
vs. NYJ - 20-36 (55.6%), 248 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 6.9 ypa
vs. Buf - 21-27 (77.8%), 252 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 9.3 ypa
TOT - 66-98 (67.3%), 758 yds, 8 td, 2 int, 7.7 ypa

Welker/Moss/Receivers:
vs. Cin - 7 different receivers, Moss (5), Welker (8)
vs. NYJ - 8 different receivers, Moss (2), Welker (6)
vs. Buf - 7 different receivers, Moss (2), Welker (4)

In three games so far, here's the reception distribution:

Welker - 18 rec, 147 yds, 3 td
Hernandez - 13 rec, 211 yds, 0 td
Moss - 9 rec, 139 yds, 3 td
Tate - 7 rec, 96 yds, 0 td
Faulk - 6 rec, 62 yds, 0 td
Gronkowski - 5 rec, 52 yds, 2 td
Edelman - 4 rec, 14 yds, 0 td
Taylor - 2 rec, 6 yds, 0 td
Morris - 1 rec, 19 yds, 0 td
Green-Ellis - 1 rec, 6 yds, 0 td

So 10 guys have caught passes for them in 3 games. Welker is accounting for 27% of the catches and 19% of the yards. Moss has nearly 14% of the catches for 18% of the yards. That means that their top 2 WR are accounting for 41% of the catches and 38% (I'm rounding off) of the yards.

Compare that with the Colts. Manning has 87 completions (to 9 different receivers) for 1013 yards. Their top 3 receivers:

Collie: 27 rec, 359 yds (31% of rec, 35% of yds)
Clark: 21 rec, 207 yds (24% of rec, 20% of yds)
Wayne: 18 rec, 260 yds (21% of rec, 26% of yds)

Their top 3 guys account for 76% of their receptions and 81% of their yards, compared with the Patriots top 3 (Moss, Welker, Hernandez) of 45% of their receptions and 66% of their yards.

It's pretty clear that Brady is spreading it around. And the results are what they are: a very high-octane offense that can put up a ton of points.

In terms of targets, which may be a better indicator of what you're talking about, here are the target numbers of each team's top 3:

Indianapolis (Manning, 126 attempts):
Collie - 32 targets (25.3% of att), 27 rec
Clark - 27 targets (21.4% of att), 21 rec
Wayne - 26 targets (20.6% of att), 18 rec
TOT - 85 targets (67.4% of att)

New England (Brady, 98 attempts):
Welker - 24 targets (24.4% of att), 18 rec
Hernandez - 15 targets (15.3% of att), 13 rec
Moss - 21 targets (21.4% of att), 9 rec
TOT - 60 targets (61.2% of att)

Brady does a better job than Peyton Manning at spreading it around, both in design (measured by targets) and by results (measured by receptions). The Pats don't have a problem with Brady being too fixated on one or two receivers.

Post all the stats you want, its been 3 games and only one game has Brady did what I said is an issue. He was doing it for like 2-3 drives sunday, but snapped out of it. I didn't say it's an issue I said it's one of the issues that could stop us.

Last year, yes, we had issues. Nobody could make a play in our receiver core outside of Moss and Welker. So he had to lock down, but it was pointed out a few times he missed an open guy due to locking onto Moss or Welker. What killed us against the Jets? Brady going away from the TEs and trying to prove something for Moss all day.

I'm not trying to start a fight, just saying. And yes, Brady has always spread the ball around, just not last year and sometimes this season I've seen caution signs. I bet if you look at the last few years, Manning has spread it around more though. I'm just guessing, but I'd be interested to actually see it. Not calling you out to post it, I'm more curious than anything. No big deal if you dont want to or anything.

 

[51Hits]

Peyton Manning's Colts say Hi!

23rd ranked D in 2006 when winning his lone SB

If chung turns into Bob Sanders (the HEALTHY Bob Sanders) we'll be OK like them too. I'm not holding my breath though..

 

[51Hits]

Defense doesn't win championships in today's nfl. Those days are gone because of all the new rules that kind of limits the defense. Now the teams with the amazing defenses (such as the jets and ravens) can't compete with the passing games of the Saints, Colts, etc....

This is too true. The only thing that used to stop Manning were the Patriot defenses because they were smart enough to do it. There's no defense with the talent to shut them down. The Ravens never did, the Jets failed, and every other D fails to do so. The only thing stopping the Colts recently is Manning's choking.

I do agree, if Brady uses all his targets, no defense can stop this offense (if the OL can hold. Ours has questions) that's just the way the NFL has become. Rules support the offense, nowadays it's all about getting ahead and pinning your ears back on D attacking the offense, making it one dimensional. This is why the Colts constantly win 12+ games with an average D, they build it around their offense.

Thinking about this, it makes me wonder why BB doesn't adjust and do the same. Instead of forcing his defense that hasn't worked every since the elagues adjustments and damn sure doesn't look to be working anytime soon.

 

[ivanvamp]

+1. Three words can say a lot. Every year the Pats won the SB it was mainly because of the defense.

Team Rankings Since 2001 (by SB winning season):
2001 - New England - Off (#6 pts, #19 yds); Def (#6 pts, #24 yds)
2002 - Tampa Bay - Off (#18 pts, #24 yds); Def (#1 pts, #1 yds)
2003 - New England - Off (#12 pts, #17 yds); Def (#1 pts, #7 yds)
2004 - New England - Off (#4 pts, #7 yds); Def (#2 pts, #9 yds)
2005 - Pittsburgh - Off (#9 pts, #15 yds); Def (#3 pts, #4 yds)
2006 - Indianapolis - Off (#2 pts, #3 yds); Def (#23 pts, #21 yds)
2007 - NY Giants - Off (#14 pts, #16 yds); Def (#17 pts, #7 yds)
2008 - Pittsburgh - Off (#20 pts, #22 yds); Def (#1 pts, #1 yds)
2009 - New Orleans Saints - Off (#1 pts, #1 yds); Def (#16 pts, #22 yds)

Average Rank:
Offense
- pts: 9.4
- yds: 13.8
Defense
- pts: 6.0
- yds: 10.0

Skews a little towards defense, but it's pretty close. You can win it all by being either phenomenal at one thing and so-so in the other (2006 Colts, 2009 Saints - great at offense, so-so/bad at defense; 2008 Steelers, 2002 Bucs, 2003 Pats - great at defense, so-so at offense), *or* by being pretty well-balanced (2001 Pats, 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants). The 2004 Pats were great at both.

The 2007 defense was very solid as well.

And yet didn't win the SB.

 

[51Hits]

No, the 2007 defense had 2 very good pass rushers in Vrabel and Colvin that had great years and pinned their ears back once we were ahead. We were #2 in sacks that year. It was all about the offense setting the game up for the defense that year. If that 07 squad had the 03 or 04's front 7 level of dominance they would have massacred every team that season.

 

[Rob0729]

Peyton Manning's Colts say Hi!

23rd ranked D in 2006 when winning his lone SB

Yeah, two of the last four Super Bowl winners have been great offenses and not so great defenses. The league has definitely changed and "defense wins championships" is no longer a guarantee. Otherwise, the Jets would be Super Bowl winners last year.

 

[emoney_33]

Post all the stats you want, its been 3 games and only one game has Brady did what I said is an issue. He was doing it for like 2-3 drives sunday, but snapped out of it. I didn't say it's an issue I said it's one of the issues that could stop us.

There is not an -issue- aside from the fans desire to scapegoat someone for every single drive that doesn't end in 7.

Last year, yes, we had issues. Nobody could make a play in our receiver core outside of Moss and Welker. So he had to lock down, but it was pointed out a few times he missed an open guy due to locking onto Moss or Welker. What killed us against the Jets? Brady going away from the TEs and trying to prove something for Moss all day.

Wrong.

I'm not trying to start a fight, just saying. And yes, Brady has always spread the ball around, just not last year and sometimes this season I've seen caution signs. I bet if you look at the last few years, Manning has spread it around more though. I'm just guessing, but I'd be interested to actually see it. Not calling you out to post it, I'm more curious than anything. No big deal if you dont want to or anything.

Last year Moss/Welker had 50.7% of all targets. They had 52% in 2007. Harrison/Wayne had 51% on the colts in 06. In 2010 so far Moss/Welker have 46% of all targets. Wayne/Clark have 46.8%.

Let's pretend he didn't miss all of 2008, ignore any potential coaching problems in the 2nd half of 8 games last year, ignore the ENORMOUS drop off in talent with other receiving options and ignore still being 3rd in yards and 6th in points on offense so that we can accuse Brady of having some sort of binky isssue. Hey we can also pretend Brady was merely a system QB and is not in fact a HOF QB.

 

[ivanvamp]

I bet if you look at the last few years, Manning has spread it around more though. I'm just guessing, but I'd be interested to actually see it. Not calling you out to post it, I'm more curious than anything. No big deal if you dont want to or anything.

We'll skip 2008 b/c Brady was hurt, and we'll look at 2006, 2007, 2009, and this year.

2006
Brady: 319 comp
- 15 different receivers
- top 3 receivers (Caldwell 61, Watson 49, Brown 43) - 153 rec (47.9%)
Manning: 362 comp
- 11 different receivers
- top 3 receivers (Harrison 95, Wayne 86, Addai 40) - 221 rec (61.0%)

2007
Brady: 398 comp
- 14 different receivers
- top 3 receivers (Welker 112, Moss 98, Faulk 47) - 257 (64.6%)
Manning: 337 comp
- 13 different receivers
- top 3 receivers (Wayne 104, Clark 58, Addai 41) - 203 (60.2%)

2009
Brady: 371 comp
- 13 different receivers
- top 3 receivers (Welker 123, Moss 83, Faulk 37) - 243 (65.5%)
Manning: 393 comp
- 13 different receivers
- top 3 receivers (Wayne 100, Clark 100, Collie 60) - 260 (66.2%)

2010
Brady: 66 comp
- 10 different receivers
- top 3 receivers (Welker 18, Hernandez 13, Moss 9) - 40 (60.6%)
Manning: 87 comp
- 9 different receivers
- top 3 receivers (Collie 27, Clark 21, Wayne 18) - 66 (75.9%)


TOTALS (from this 3+ year sample):
Brady: 1154 comp
- top 3 receivers: 693 (60.0%)
Manning: 1179 comp
- top 3 receivers: 750 (63.6%)

So it's pretty close, but Brady does spread it around more than Manning does, on the whole.

Ironically, Brady's best passing year ever was the year he was most "locked" onto his top receivers (2007, when 53% of his completions were to either Welker or Moss). Manning's best passing year (2004, when he threw 49 td) was one of his best "spread it around" years, as he had 4 guys catch over 50 balls (Harrison 86, Wayne 77, Stokley 68, James 51) and 6 guys catch 25+ balls (add in Pollard's 29 and Clark's 25).

Different ways to accomplish big-time stats.