PatsCast Episode 20 (with Jay Shields, postgame analysis)

[emoney_33]

As I just pointed out in the Coordinator thread:

Here's a reality from the Jets game: If you are happy with a Moss v. Cromartie matchup, every drive in the second half had an execution/non-coordinator failure that came back to bite the team in the ass.

Drive 1: Int to Moss at 3 yard line
Drive 2: Missed pass to Gronkowski
Drive 3: Int to Moss #2
Drive 4: Missed pass to Crumpler
Drive 5: strip sack

I suppose if the coordinator is only responsible for the last play of a drive you can make this argument.

 

[Oswlek]

That's a really good point, and it makes a lot of sense. In an ideal world, I'd almost prefer someone who has proven to be an excellent coordinator and a terrible HC: the Gregg Williams types. But then you look at how Norv Turner got another head coaching offer in San Diego, after all of his repeated failures elsewhere, and maybe that just doesn't exist. No matter how bad someone's head coaching track record is, if he coordinates well enough maybe someone will always be willing to roll the dice on him somewhere.

OTOH, even if you promote from within, if your guy shows particular promise he'll get a head coaching job pretty quickly, especially if he comes up with the Patriots. Look at Mangini: we had him as DC for all of one year before the Jets grabbed him. Of course, he definitely left too early, but even if he hadn't, he probably would have left (under better terms) the following year. Following 2007, teams were seriously interested in McDaniels, after a mere 3 years of playcalling and 2 years of being the official coordinator. Ultimately, I think that anyone who succeeds greatly as a coordinator and wants to be a HC will get that offer. You're probably right, though, that that's more consistently the case with imported veteran coaches.

You are correct that promote from within can still have quick turnover, but you know for certain that you don't have to worry about terminology or major tendency issues arising.

 

[BradyFTW!]

As I just pointed out in the Coordinator thread:

Here's a reality from the Jets game: If you are happy with a Moss v. Cromartie matchup, every drive in the second half had an execution/non-coordinator failure that came back to bite the team in the ass.

Drive 1: Int to Moss at 3 yard line
Drive 2: Missed pass to Gronkowski
Drive 3: Int to Moss #2
Drive 4: Missed pass to Crumpler
Drive 5: strip sack

And if this was a one-game aberration, or even a slight trend, then I'd chalk it up to that and move on. That was what I did for most of last season, for example. But at a certain point you have to call the trend what it is, and either Brady's lost the ability to make consistently good decisions with the football or the Pats are getting solidly outcoached and not putting our personnel in a position to succeed. I'll grand that there's likely a bit of column A in the mix, but to pretend that there isn't a heaping dose of column B makes no sense at all to me.

 

[Deus Irae]

And if this was a one-game aberration, or even a slight trend, then I'd chalk it up to that and move on. That was what I did for most of last season, for example. But at a certain point you have to call the trend what it is, and either Brady's lost the ability to make consistently good decisions with the football or the Pats are getting solidly outcoached and not putting our personnel in a position to succeed. I'll grand that there's likely a bit of column A in the mix, but to pretend that there isn't a heaping dose of column B makes no sense at all to me.

1.) If every game is because of execution, there's a trend about execution.

2.) Last year was obvious to see, and many of us were calling it before and during the games.

3.) This is one game, and it's clearly on execution. Therefore, there's no trend with the coordinator to even look at.

People are using revisionist history because they've lost their minds. This loss was on execution, not playcalling, and that's easy to see when you look at the drives.

 

[Oswlek]

Because they still don't execute consistently enough. The OL is doing a pretty good job at pass blocking. What they still don't do consistently is run block well enough to front a backs by committee consisting of an aging war horse, a hard working UDFA and a high end JAG who is aging out and injury prone to boot. You make that work by run blocking consistently and consistently making teams pay through the air. I'm pretty confident Bill believed they would do that this season with the performance of the additions to the passing game (Crumpler, Gronk, Hernandez, Tate, a returning healthy Welker). Misses kill this team. And misses aren't on the coordinators, they are on the players. Everyone who defends Moss seems to agree with that except they want to blame the misses on the QB for the second season in a row. Did he have some issues last year...yeah, but not to the extent some here chose to paint them. Did Moss have the same issues last season? Yeah, but reportedly not for the same reason he is having them this season when he is healthy and motivated to get a new contract. Yet the disconnect that has plagued these two since the end of 2007 continues. I simply think it is what it is and it will remain thus until the opportunity no longer exists. I said that at the end of last season, too. Moss has now taken to talking about players dealing with adversity. That made me chuckle... Others are now claiming that the JETS players have nailed this to our failure to adjust. Funny how when players nail it elsewhere, as they have in the recent past, the tail doesn't stick...

I agree with you more often than not, but if this is the case why aren't NE's issues even displaced throughout their games? Something is causing these players to be amongst the most prepared and productive teams in the league for the first 30 minutes and then a bottom 10 team over the latter 30 minutes.

Pointing to individual breakdowns is all well and good, but you have to be aware of larger trends as well. As coaches teach young players, understand the whole first, then understand the parts. Some team issues present themselves more clearly viewed from a higher perspective.

I agree with you about NE's run blocking. It is something I've brought up many times in the past, especially regarding the lousy TE backside blocking. But I don't think that had much to do with this game. If anything, I think they should have pulled a page from past seasons, when they would realize something didn't work and so they moved on.

I used to snidely chuckle at "we do what we do" teams like Pitt, knowing NE would just carve them up using their weaknesses against them. Right now, teams are doing it to NE and they aren't responding.

 

[JackBauer]

So this Jekyl/Hyde performance that just happens to seamlessly dovetail with last year's trend... too soon to speculate?

 

[BradyFTW!]

1.) If every game is because of execution, there's a trend about execution.

If that's the case, then at a certain point it has to become clear that the coaches are demanding that the players do things that they simply can't do. Which means that either a) they don't have the talent to succeed, or b) they aren't being properly utilized. I can buy A being a major contributing factor on the defensive side, at this stage in its development, which is why I'm not at all worried about Patricia yet. But, with the offense, it can only be B.

2.) Last year was obvious to see, and many of us were calling it before and during the games.

3.) This is one game, and it's clearly on execution. Therefore, there's no trend with the coordinator to even look at.

People are using revisionist history because they've lost their minds. This loss was on execution, not playcalling, and that's easy to see when you look at the drives.

Well, in your previous breakdown, 4 of the 5 drives ended because Brady failed to execute. I don't necessarily agree with using this for the standard to judge execution, but I'm just continuing with what you started. That, coupled with your assertion that execution and execution alone lost this game, means that you're essentially placing this loss on Brady's decision-making. I assume that you hold the same to be true for the other games over the past 13 months where the Pats have lost a lead in the second half, in part at least because the offense was effectively shut down? Since Brady has demonstrated over the last decade that he's one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history at making the right decision, I'm not quite ready to subscribe to that notion.

All players need to be put in a position to succeed. Every player will look worse than he is if he's placed at a disadvantage from the get-go; Brady's been proving that for a solid year-plus.

 

[Oswlek]

1.) If every game is because of execution, there's a trend about execution.

2.) Last year was obvious to see, and many of us were calling it before and during the games.

3.) This is one game, and it's clearly on execution. Therefore, there's no trend with the coordinator to even look at.

People are using revisionist history because they've lost their minds. This loss was on execution, not playcalling, and that's easy to see when you look at the drives.

I can see some validity to this point, but taken to the extreme every loss is due to execution so you can never blame the coaching. Barring a complete idiot move like Marty Morhning-something or another choosing to kick in OT, all we see is the performance between the lines.

But we all know some coaches are better than others. We all know that Cowher was a "rah! rah!" guy who had no answer if his teams couldn't impose their will. Why is it so outlandish to consider the idea that BoB doesn't quite have it yet? How else do you explain the team being the best team in the league at first half scoring differential in 2009 and high teens for the 2nd half and that trend continuing into this season?

I'm sure we could break each and every game down and find reasonable explanations like you've done here, but something is causing it to happen. The team has outscored its opponent in the second half of exactly one road game since 2009 opened. How do you explain that?

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm sure we could break each and every game down and find reasonable explanations like you've done here, but something is causing it to happen. The team has outscored its opponent in the second half of exactly one road game since 2009 opened. How do you explain that?

People are overblowing the "second half" issue. Here are the 1st half/2nd half splits of the final seven games of last season (Games listed in reverse).

vs. Houston - 13/14
vs. Jacksonville - up 28-0 at the half, killing clock in second half of 35-7 win
vs. Buffalo - 14/3
vs. Carolina - 7/13
vs. Miami - 14/7
vs. N.O. 10/7
vs. Jets - up 24-7 at the half, killing clock in second half of 31-14 win

 

[BradyFTW!]

People are overblowing the "second half" issue. Here are the 1st half/2nd half splits of the final seven games of last season (Games listed in reverse).

vs. Houston - 13/14
vs. Jacksonville - up 28-0 at the half, killing clock in second half of 35-7 win
vs. Buffalo - 14/3
vs. Carolina - 7/13
vs. Miami - 14/7
vs. N.O. 10/7
vs. Jets - up 24-7 at the half, killing clock in second half of 31-14 win

I assume that you went with "final seven games" rather than "last half of the season" because the 27/10 split that they put up against Indy doesn't help your case.

Bottom line: in 2009, the Pats were 3-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and in all 8 of those games they were outscored in the second half. If they get outscored in the second half of a blowout win, then I don't care, but that's not what was happening. If you think that the issue is overblown, then I'll just have to respectfully disagree.

 

[Oswlek]

People are overblowing the "second half" issue. Here are the 1st half/2nd half splits of the final seven games of last season (Games listed in reverse).

vs. Houston - 13/14
vs. Jacksonville - up 28-0 at the half, killing clock in second half of 35-7 win
vs. Buffalo - 14/3
vs. Carolina - 7/13
vs. Miami - 14/7
vs. N.O. 10/7
vs. Jets - up 24-7 at the half, killing clock in second half of 31-14 win

Fair enough, but here are the 2nd half scores on road games (NE first - opponent second).

0-13
0-13
14-0 (in London)
10-21
7-14
7-12
3-7
14-21
7-14

Or, how about total offensive plays on the road, first half/second half (no Tampa)

43/27
42/29
34/40 - Indy
41/30
30/23
26/33 - Buffalo
35/25

Pretty obvious trend towards longer drives in the 2nd half. Admittedly, the defense might have been allowing more plays themselves, eating up clock, so how about your first/second split on the road (again no Tampa)

9/0
17/0
24/10
10/7
14/7
14/3
13/14

Only one game did they score more in the 2nd half than the first, and since they went 1-6 in these games, it wasn't as if they were just running out the game clock.

Clearly something is amiss.

 

[Deus Irae]

I assume that you went with "final seven games" rather than "last half of the season" because the 27/10 split that they put up against Indy doesn't help your case.

No, I stopped because it was clear that there was no pattern. However, since you decided to get a bit snarky:

vs. Indy - 24/10 (Brady INT, Maroney Fum, Damned 3rd/4th down calls/decision)
vs. Miami - 16/11
vs. Tampa - 21/14 coasting to a 35-7 win
vs. Tenn - 45/14 coasting to a 59-0 win
vs. Denver - 17/0 (Missed FG, lost fumble)
vs. Ravens - 17/10
vs. Falcons - 13/13
vs. Jets - 9/0 (Welker missing, Galloway/Aiken implosion)
vs. Bills - 10/15

The notion that the second half was showing all kinds of scoring collapses is simply not the case.

In 2009, the Pats were 3-5 in games decided by one score or less, and in all 8 of those games they were outscored in the second half. If you think that the issue is overblown, then I'll just have to respectfully disagree.

If they were routinely putting up 30 points in the first half of close games and then nothing in the second half of those games, or something like that, you'd have a point. That's not what was happening.

 

[Deus Irae]

Fair enough, but here are the 2nd half scores on road games (NE first - opponent second).

0-13
0-13
14-0 (in London)
10-21
7-14
7-12
3-7
14-21
7-14

Or, how about total offensive plays on the road, first half/second half (no Tampa)

43/27
42/29
34/40 - Indy
41/30
30/23
26/33 - Buffalo
35/25

Pretty obvious trend towards longer drives in the 2nd half. Admittedly, the defense might have been allowing more plays themselves, eating up clock, so how about your first/second split on the road (again no Tampa)

9/0
17/0
24/10
10/7
14/7
14/3
13/14

Only one game did they score more in the 2nd half than the first, and since they went 1-6 in these games, it wasn't as if they were just running out the game clock.

Clearly something is amiss.

Yes.... a weak defense, and an offense that had Aiken as the WR3 and Baker as the TE2.

 

[BradyFTW!]

If they were routinely putting up 30 points in the first half of close games and then nothing in the second half of those games, or something like that, you'd have a point. That's not what was happening.

Are you joking?

 

[Oswlek]

Yes.... a weak defense, and an offense that had Aiken as the WR3 and Baker as the TE2.

As I said ealier

I spent much of last year pointing to 2002 as an example of how a BB/RAC/Charlie coached team could get outcoached repeatedly, then the team improves the DL and secondary and suddenly the coaches are geniuses against in 2003. The obvious issues with TE and WR personnel last year were also easy whipping boys.

But this year's offense suffers from no such problems. The receivers are better and deeper, the TEs are dramatically improved and the OL pass blocked wonderfully. Yet NE still couldn't mount anything in the 2nd half after moving at will in the first.

I'm ever the optimist, so I'm willing to give BoB a couple more weeks to get acclimated to his new toys. But the trend isn't exactly promising.

 

[Deus Irae]

Are you joking?

Obviously not. Where is that analysis incorrect?

 

[Deus Irae]

As I said ealier

This year's offense has a huge problem at left guard, a problem at running back, Welker coming back from ACL/MCL surgery and being backup up by a seemingly fragile Edelman, inexperience at TE and, still, a question mark at receiver outside of Moss/Welker/Edelman. People are acting as if this is 2007 redux, when it's nowhere near that.

I'm not claiming that playcalling is perfect. Nothing is perfect. I'm noting that playcalling isn't the problem.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Obviously not. Where is that analysis incorrect?

Everything about your analysis is incorrect. The idea that the points scored differential has to be -30 from the first half to the second half is just ridiculous. They don't average 30 PPG total. You're setting an impossible standard then holding it up as proof; might as well say that Brady isn't great because he's never thrown more than 50 TD passes in a season; that's an equally valid assertion.

All that matters is that in *every* close game that the Pats have played, spanning the entire past year, they've faded down the stretch in the game. 8 times out of 8. That's not a small sample size: it's an obvious trend that every objective viewer has clearly seen.

 

[Deus Irae]

Everything about your analysis is incorrect. The idea that the points scored differential has to be -30 from the first half to the second half is just ridiculous. They don't average 30 PPG total. You're setting an impossible standard then holding it up as proof; might as well say that Brady isn't great because he's never thrown more than 50 TD passes in a season; that's an equally valid assertion.

Not at all. I said "something like that" as a means of noting a large disparity. The reality is that it was generally a matter of one score difference in either direction, when you take away the blowouts.

All that matters is that in *every* close game that the Pats have played, spanning the entire past year, they've faded down the stretch in the game. 8 times out of 8. That's not a small sample size: it's an obvious trend that every objective viewer has clearly seen.

Let's pretend this is true, even though it's not (first Bills game, Carolina game). That 'trend' would prove only that the team struggled in close games. It wouldn't prove anything about the coordinators, and there are clearly more important factors in play.

 

[BradyFTW!]

This year's offense has a huge problem at left guard, a problem at running back, Welker coming back from ACL/MCL surgery and being backup up by a seemingly fragile Edelman, inexperience at TE and, still, a question mark at receiver outside of Moss/Welker/Edelman. People are acting as if this is 2007 redux, when it's nowhere near that.

I'm not claiming that playcalling is perfect. Nothing is perfect. I'm noting that playcalling isn't the problem.

Has anyone tried to compare this offense to the 2007 one? Of course not; that's a straw man, plain and simple. The only person trying to make that comparison is you. In fact, let's throw the 2007 team out altogether, if it makes you feel better.

Look at the 2008 team; in the five close games that the team played, it scored more in the second half four times (close = 1 possession game). Or, if you prefer, go back to 2006; in the seven close games that that team played, it scored more in the second half five times. The 2005 team played 7 close games, and scored more in the second half in six of them. Are you going to try to claim that the 2005 offense had fewer question marks than the 2010 one?

It used to be a hallmark of the Patriots that they played better in the second half than in the first, especially in close games. It was one of my favorite characteristics of the team, and one of the major reasons why I always defended McDaniels against his detractors. Once both teams had seen what the other was throwing at them, he simply outcoached the opposition.

Since O'Brien arrived, the team has played 8 close games, and scored more in the second half in two of them. Those two games were week 1 and week 17 of last season. You can pretend that there isn't a stark difference if you want, but the numbers don't lie. The sample size is plenty large enough.

And FWIW, for anyone who cares to throw 2007 into the mix, the Pats played four close games that season, and scored more in the second half in three of them.