PatsCast Episode 20 (with Jay Shields, postgame analysis)

[BradyFTW!]

You can check it out here: PatsCast Episode 20 (with Jay Shields)

Basically, we explore the reasons why the Pats lost, what we can take away from it, and a little bit about how our expectations for the team have been influenced. Just be forewarned that this one might not go over well with the homers; we're both worried about the competence of the offensive coaching staff, and that's a tough problem to solve in-season. They had an offseason to fix last year's problems, and it's starting to look like all of the same problems are still there. Not time to push the panic button, but having real concerns is pretty reasonable.

Note: Jay is jays52 on this forum, for anyone who didn't already know that.

 

[JackBauer]

Nice job as usual, guys. Seems like you all are pretty down on O'Brien, between the zone-blocking on running plays and the crappy lack of adjustments.

After listening to that podcast, I am now 25-50% more sour on O'Brien. Pretty sobering stuff.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Nice job as usual, guys. Seems like you all are pretty down on O'Brien, between the zone-blocking on running plays and the crappy lack of adjustments.

After listening to that podcast, I am now 25-50% more sour on O'Brien. Pretty sobering stuff.

Thanks! That was pretty much my reaction too: I had a feeling that something must be systemically wrong for these traditionally uncharacteristic problems to keep resurfacing, but Jay's explanation was even more discouraging than I would have thought. I had no problem writing off the second half woes in week 1, since stepping off the gas with a 31-3 lead is pretty understandable.

This past week has no such explanation, though, and points to the Pats just being soundly outcoached. Over the past year-plus, that's happened far too often, to the point that I don't trust the Pats to be the best-prepared team on the field anymore. Considering that that was their M.O. when they went and won three Super Bowls, it's more than a little disappointing.

 

[JackBauer]

Thanks! That was pretty much my reaction too: I had a feeling that something must be systemically wrong for these traditionally uncharacteristic problems to keep resurfacing, but Jay's explanation was even more discouraging than I would have thought. I had no problem writing off the second half woes in week 1, since stepping off the gas with a 31-3 lead is pretty understandable.

This past week has no such explanation, though, and points to the Pats just being soundly outcoached. Over the past year-plus, that's happened far too often, to the point that I don't trust the Pats to be the best-prepared team on the field anymore. Considering that that was their M.O. when they went and won three Super Bowls, it's more than a little disappointing.

"Whatever they did, whatever they adjusted to, we made adjustments and counteracted them," said tight end Dustin Keller, walking out of the locker room after the game.

Soundly outcoached on both sides of the ball in the second half. Understandable to see that on offense, but it seems like this is becoming an endemic issue on the defensive side as well. I'd hate to peg it to something as circumstantial and speculative as BB being spread too thin (brain drain), but at this point I'm pretty stumped as to what else it could be.

I'm also baffled as to what's going on with Meriweather, but they need to get him back on the field. Now.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Soundly outcoached on both sides of the ball in the second half. Understandable to see that on offense, but it seems like this is becoming an endemic issue on the defensive side as well. I'd hate to peg it to something as circumstantial and speculative as BB being spread too thin (brain drain), but at this point I'm pretty stumped as to what else it could be.

I'm also baffled as to what's going on with Meriweather, but they need to get him back on the field. Now.

Yeah, as noted in the podcast. it's not so much excusing the defense's performance as noting that a) we have a lot of young guys making young mistakes over there, and b) Patricia's calling players for the first time. We expected these issues from the D, and there's still a lot of reason to expect major improvement, even between now and week 17.

On the offense, though, we've run out of reasons for this stuff. With the personnel that the Pats have, there is no excuse for getting shut out in the second half. Bill O'Brien is not only a second-year guy, but worse, he's given no indication at all that he's matured as a coach since last year.

Definitely agree re: Meriweather. His postgame comments worry me; on one hand he owned up to what got him in the doghouse, but otoh... what the hell? If he thought that ignoring the coaches in practice was anything other than a terrible idea, then either he's dumb, way more frustrated than anyone should be in week 2, he isn't taking his job seriously, or he doesn't respect his coaches. None of those is a good thing.

 

[Patspsycho]

Is there any way you can have a transcript of this podcast?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Is there any way you can have a transcript of this podcast?

I'll definitely look into it

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Nice job as usual, guys. Seems like you all are pretty down on O'Brien, between the zone-blocking on running plays and the crappy lack of adjustments.

After listening to that podcast, I am now 25-50% more sour on O'Brien. Pretty sobering stuff.

Yeah, makes you wonder why Bill can't get a guy like Jay on his staff...

That's the problem with this kind of amatuer, snap analysis. Jay doesn't know a lot of the variables. Moss practices like a warrior and beats our secondary like a rented mule. Sadly he doesn't face them on game day. The observation was made that the adjustment was correct but the player they went to isn't 27 anymore and he doesn't warrant the level of trust that the OC and QB place in him. Sadly, in the real world OC's have to deal with a lot more than theory, they have to live with it's practical application. Execution on both sides of the ball was spotty in the first half or we'd have been up substantially at the half. After the half it morphed into abyssmal. Not an unfathomable phenomenon league wide when you let another team hang around. We used to have the capacity to weather those games enough to prevail more often than not. We haven't had that capacity for a long time. We didn't have it in 2000 or 2002 when Charlie was here. He had it in 2005 at ND but it was pretty short lived... Ditto RAC whose defenses wore down down the stretch here but the offense found a way. Had they remained here in 2005-06 that wouldn't have been the case for either of them. Scheme and system matter in football, and will trump talent PROVIDED everyone on the field consistently executes. It's just tough to predict if or when they will. And it only takes a couple of guys no matter how talented to fail to execute and it impacts everyone from the elite on field talent to the grinders to the geniuses on the sidelines. Just ask Rex what happened last week... When this team was moving the ball almost at will in the first quarter and the JETS couldn't make a play and we missed even the FG and the score was 0-0 as the quarter ran out...the team had the same sinking feeling it's fanbase had and the broadcast team articulated. That was actually a win for the JETS. Then we score, but so do they. Then we score again, but so do they. 14-10 at the half when they hadn't played well was an emotional/momentum win for the JETS. We stop them on their first possession of the half. Then we turn the ball over and they drive the length of the field to score. Momentum and emotion were all on their side. They were executing consistently now, we were incapable of executing at all. All the strategy in the world won't win you those games. Guys were in position to make plays, they simply didn't make 'em.

 

[JackBauer]

Yeah, makes you wonder why Bill can't get a guy like Jay on his staff...

That's the problem with this kind of amatuer, snap analysis. Jay doesn't know a lot of the variables. Moss practices like a warrior and beats our secondary like a rented mule. Sadly he doesn't face them on game day. The observation was made that the adjustment was correct but the player they went to isn't 27 anymore and he doesn't warrant the level of trust that the OC and QB place in him. Sadly, in the real world OC's have to deal with a lot more than theory, they have to live with it's practical application. Execution on both sides of the ball was spotty in the first half or we'd have been up substantially at the half. After the half it morphed into abyssmal. Not an unfathomable phenomenon league wide when you let another team hang around. We used to have the capacity to weather those games enough to prevail more often than not. We haven't had that capacity for a long time. We didn't have it in 2000 or 2002 when Charlie was here. He had it in 2005 at ND but it was pretty short lived... Ditto RAC whose defenses wore down down the stretch here but the offense found a way. Had they remained here in 2005-06 that wouldn't have been the case for either of them. Scheme and system matter in football, and will trump talent PROVIDED everyone on the field consistently executes. It's just tough to predict if or when they will. And it only takes a couple of guys no matter how talented to fail to execute and it impacts everyone from the elite on field talent to the grinders to the geniuses on the sidelines. Just ask Rex what happened last week... When this team was moving the ball almost at will in the first quarter and the JETS couldn't make a play and we missed even the FG and the score was 0-0 as the quarter ran out...the team had the same sinking feeling it's fanbase had and the broadcast team articulated. That was actually a win for the JETS. Then we score, but so do they. Then we score again, but so do they. 14-10 at the half when they hadn't played well was an emotional/momentum win for the JETS. We stop them on their first possession of the half. Then we turn the ball over and they drive the length of the field to score. Momentum and emotion were all on their side. They were executing consistently now, we were incapable of executing at all. All the strategy in the world won't win you those games. Guys were in position to make plays, they simply didn't make 'em.

Uh huh. And when the same thing keeps happening -- over, and over, and over -- that's a coincidence. Nevermind the Jets players coming out and saying we got outcoached. Nevermind the same formulaic outcomes for more than a year now. So why is it that, all of a sudden, in the second half of games this squad has developed a chronic inability to execute? At what point does this cease becoming a coincidence and start becoming a trend?

I mean, how many good offensive coordinators are there in the league? It's hardly beyond the realm of speculation that we may have ourselves a lemon here in B.O.B.

 

[Oswlek]

Re: Coaching

A big reason not to hire well known coordinators is that most of the guys available want to get into head coaching as soon as possible. Most likely they are failed head coaches because who is dumping successful coordinators?

For better or for worse, BB values consistency and bringing in a guy on a resurgency tour isn't exactly the best way to cultivate that. I do wonder about RAC and Charlie. They seemed to be guys who would be content just to fill their old shoes but perhaps they wanted to rebuild somewhere else. We don't know for certain that NE didn't try to nab either of them. And lifers like Monte Kiffin and Scarnechia aren't looking for work all that often.

I agree and disagree with MoLewis. I spent much of last year pointing to 2002 as an example of how a BB/RAC/Charlie coached team could get outcoached repeatedly, then the team improves the DL and secondary and suddenly the coaches are geniuses against in 2003. The obvious issues with TE and WR personnel last year were also easy whipping boys.

But this year's offense suffers from no such problems. The receivers are better and deeper, the TEs are dramatically improved and the OL pass blocked wonderfully. Yet NE still couldn't mount anything in the 2nd half after moving at will in the first.

I'm ever the optimist, so I'm willing to give BoB a couple more weeks to get acclimated to his new toys. But the trend isn't exactly promising.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Yeah, makes you wonder why Bill can't get a guy like Jay on his staff...

That's the problem with this kind of amatuer, snap analysis. Jay doesn't know a lot of the variables.

I think somebody's a little pissed they're not invited on the show.

Anyways, Jay52 said that the "defensive coordinator is a work in progress". Who is the DC? I thought BB was running the defense.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Uh huh. And when the same thing keeps happening -- over, and over, and over -- that's a coincidence. Nevermind the Jets players coming out and saying we got outcoached. Nevermind the same formulaic outcomes for more than a year now. So why is it that, all of a sudden, in the second half of games this squad has developed a chronic inability to execute? At what point does this cease becoming a coincidence and start becoming a trend?

Lack of mental toughness and determination and focus and discipline and in some cases lack of physical toughness while in others lack of confidence in themselves or in the system, while in others abundance of ego. Sometimes you get rid of the bad apples only to find they have left a little mold behind and it's rotting one or two of the remaining apples. Been the case here forever. Pioli used to say all the time this is a tough system to populate because they need a whole lot more than do what I do talent in order to be a solid system fit, and it doesn't matter how talented they are if they can't play within the system. Players all to some extent believe they got where they are based on their inherent talent. On some level they all resent the credit coaching and scheme get. Some of them can let that go without losing confidence in the effort to go farther, others can't wrap their heads around that concept, ever, and end up believing not to mention claiming the system screwed them. When talent wins in undisciplined system it validates what they believe. When it loses, it's the coordinator or the HC's fault...

 

[emoney_33]

Yeah, makes you wonder why Bill can't get a guy like Jay on his staff...

That's the problem with this kind of amatuer, snap analysis. Jay doesn't know a lot of the variables.

Nor do you...

 

[Oswlek]

Lack of mental toughness and determination and focus and discipline and in some cases lack of physical toughness while in others lack of confidence in themselves or in the system, while in others abundance of ego. Sometimes you get rid of the bad apples only to find they have left a little mold behind and it's rotting one or two of the remaining apples. Been the case here forever. Pioli used to say all the time this is a tough system to populate because they need a whole lot more than do what I do talent in order to be a solid system fit, and it doesn't matter how talented they are if they can't play within the system. Players all to some extent believe they got where they are based on their inherent talent. On some level they all resent the credit coaching and scheme get. Some of them can let that go without losing confidence in the effort to go farther, others can't wrap their heads around that concept, ever, and end up believing not to mention claiming the system screwed them. When talent wins in undisciplined system it validates what they believe. When it loses, it's the coordinator or the HC's fault...

I can see some of this, which is why the team decided to drop all the dead weight and move on with a younger roster this year. It is perfectly reasonable to expect the defense to continue their road struggles, only for an entirely different reason.

But that doesn't explain why the offense, for the 2nd straight year, could score nary a 2nd half point down in NY.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think somebody's a little pissed they're not invited on the show.

Anyways, Jay52 said that the "defensive coordinator is a work in progress". Who is the DC? I thought BB was running the defense.

Au contraire, I've been asked to write about the team and when I stopped laughing politely declined. I'm just a fan. I get that. I also know that the pros on Bill's staff have already forgotten more than any amatuer analyst whether they played the game or coached at a different level or believe they could have coached it at this level will ever know. We and the media simply don't have access to enough information to make blanket statements of fact about what did or didn't happen, or who did or didn't screw up, let alone why.

The defensive coordinator position is a work in progress because there are two home grown candidates vying for it and apparently sharing responsibility for differing portions of it this season. At the end of the day all of our coordinators have been home grown, because we run a system and scheme here you only gain familiarity with under BB or one of his progotes, unless you choose to believe Charlie got his shot based on his HS coaching prowess and RAC got his based on his playing time and a short stint as a college assistant... They came up via Belichick off the Parcell's tree (although Parcell's himself didn't seem to have a lot of use for either of them or his son in law or that copy boy Bill brought in after Cleveland...since he willingly let them all go when BB left NY.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I can see some of this, which is why the team decided to drop all the dead weight and move on with a younger roster this year. It is perfectly reasonable to expect the defense to continue their road struggles, only for an entirely different reason.

But that doesn't explain why the offense, for the 2nd straight year, could score nary a 2nd half point down in NY.

Because they still don't execute consistently enough. The OL is doing a pretty good job at pass blocking. What they still don't do consistently is run block well enough to front a backs by committee consisting of an aging war horse, a hard working UDFA and a high end JAG who is aging out and injury prone to boot. You make that work by run blocking consistently and consistently making teams pay through the air. I'm pretty confident Bill believed they would do that this season with the performance of the additions to the passing game (Crumpler, Gronk, Hernandez, Tate, a returning healthy Welker). Misses kill this team. And misses aren't on the coordinators, they are on the players. Everyone who defends Moss seems to agree with that except they want to blame the misses on the QB for the second season in a row. Did he have some issues last year...yeah, but not to the extent some here chose to paint them. Did Moss have the same issues last season? Yeah, but reportedly not for the same reason he is having them this season when he is healthy and motivated to get a new contract. Yet the disconnect that has plagued these two since the end of 2007 continues. I simply think it is what it is and it will remain thus until the opportunity no longer exists. I said that at the end of last season, too. Moss has now taken to talking about players dealing with adversity. That made me chuckle... Others are now claiming that the JETS players have nailed this to our failure to adjust. Funny how when players nail it elsewhere, as they have in the recent past, the tail doesn't stick...

 

[BradyFTW!]

Yeah, makes you wonder why Bill can't get a guy like Jay on his staff...

That's the problem with this kind of amatuer, snap analysis. Jay doesn't know a lot of the variables. Moss practices like a warrior and beats our secondary like a rented mule. Sadly he doesn't face them on game day. The observation was made that the adjustment was correct but the player they went to isn't 27 anymore and he doesn't warrant the level of trust that the OC and QB place in him. Sadly, in the real world OC's have to deal with a lot more than theory, they have to live with it's practical application. Execution on both sides of the ball was spotty in the first half or we'd have been up substantially at the half. After the half it morphed into abyssmal. Not an unfathomable phenomenon league wide when you let another team hang around. We used to have the capacity to weather those games enough to prevail more often than not. We haven't had that capacity for a long time. We didn't have it in 2000 or 2002 when Charlie was here. He had it in 2005 at ND but it was pretty short lived... Ditto RAC whose defenses wore down down the stretch here but the offense found a way. Had they remained here in 2005-06 that wouldn't have been the case for either of them. Scheme and system matter in football, and will trump talent PROVIDED everyone on the field consistently executes. It's just tough to predict if or when they will. And it only takes a couple of guys no matter how talented to fail to execute and it impacts everyone from the elite on field talent to the grinders to the geniuses on the sidelines. Just ask Rex what happened last week... When this team was moving the ball almost at will in the first quarter and the JETS couldn't make a play and we missed even the FG and the score was 0-0 as the quarter ran out...the team had the same sinking feeling it's fanbase had and the broadcast team articulated. That was actually a win for the JETS. Then we score, but so do they. Then we score again, but so do they. 14-10 at the half when they hadn't played well was an emotional/momentum win for the JETS. We stop them on their first possession of the half. Then we turn the ball over and they drive the length of the field to score. Momentum and emotion were all on their side. They were executing consistently now, we were incapable of executing at all. All the strategy in the world won't win you those games. Guys were in position to make plays, they simply didn't make 'em.

If the second-half performance was an aberration, rather than a distinct trend spanning over a year-plus, then I'd put a lot more stock in that explanation. The players executed just fine in the first half, and they didn't forget how to when the clock hit 0:00 in the second quarter. It happens too often for that to be the case; the cause and effect has to be a much straighter line than that. There are very few things that can consistently cause such a stark split between the first and second halves, and the only one that makes sense, as I see it, is to lay this one largely at the feet of the coaches. There is simply too much talent on this offense to consistently stagnate in the second half.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Coaching

A big reason not to hire well known coordinators is that most of the guys available want to get into head coaching as soon as possible. Most likely they are failed head coaches because who is dumping successful coordinators?

For better or for worse, BB values consistency and bringing in a guy on a resurgency tour isn't exactly the best way to cultivate that. I do wonder about RAC and Charlie. They seemed to be guys who would be content just to fill their old shoes but perhaps they wanted to rebuild somewhere else. We don't know for certain that NE didn't try to nab either of them. And lifers like Monte Kiffin and Scarnechia aren't looking for work all that often.

That's a really good point, and it makes a lot of sense. In an ideal world, I'd almost prefer someone who has proven to be an excellent coordinator and a terrible HC: the Gregg Williams types. But then you look at how Norv Turner got another head coaching offer in San Diego, after all of his repeated failures elsewhere, and maybe that just doesn't exist. No matter how bad someone's head coaching track record is, if he coordinates well enough maybe someone will always be willing to roll the dice on him somewhere.

OTOH, even if you promote from within, if your guy shows particular promise he'll get a head coaching job pretty quickly, especially if he comes up with the Patriots. Look at Mangini: we had him as DC for all of one year before the Jets grabbed him. Of course, he definitely left too early, but even if he hadn't, he probably would have left (under better terms) the following year. Following 2007, teams were seriously interested in McDaniels, after a mere 3 years of playcalling and 2 years of being the official coordinator. Ultimately, I think that anyone who succeeds greatly as a coordinator and wants to be a HC will get that offer. You're probably right, though, that that's more consistently the case with imported veteran coaches.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Au contraire, I've been asked to write about the team and when I stopped laughing politely declined. I'm just a fan. I get that. I also know that the pros on Bill's staff have already forgotten more than any amatuer analyst whether they played the game or coached at a different level or believe they could have coached it at this level will ever know. We and the media simply don't have access to enough information to make blanket statements of fact about what did or didn't happen, or who did or didn't screw up, let alone why.

I assume that the irony of that is lost on you, so I'll spell it out: you presume to know more about the inner working of the organization than anyone else on this forum. If anyone's consistently guilty of what you're accusing Jay of, it's you.

 

[Deus Irae]

As I just pointed out in the Coordinator thread:

Here's a reality from the Jets game: If you are happy with a Moss v. Cromartie matchup, every drive in the second half had an execution/non-coordinator failure that came back to bite the team in the ass.

Drive 1: Int to Moss at 3 yard line
Drive 2: Missed pass to Gronkowski
Drive 3: Int to Moss #2
Drive 4: Missed pass to Crumpler
Drive 5: strip sack