Article documentation of Patriots 2nd half adjustment problems

[DropKickFlutie]

Here is a round-up of articles, local and national, highlighting the clear 2nd half problems of this team over the last 18 games. Cliff Notes version: the 2009 Patriots offense was actually the best in the league in the 1st half, but its 2nd half performance was dramatically different.

First article is actually from November 2009 and chronicles the entire season up to that point. The bolded text are some eye popping facts.

For some reason the team starts out strong in the 1st half, and falters in the 2nd half. It is bizarre that the exact same talent can play so well to start games, and then sputter games away.

Going back 18 games now, 2/3 of total points scored occur in the 1st half, only 1/3 of total Patriot points are scored in the 2nd half of games. Meaning, the offense scores twice as many points in the 1st half as it does in the 2nd half. Tom Brady is now 1-8 in his last 8 road games.

In the games they let slip away, their only three road games, the Patriots’ offense stalled. They scored zero points in the second half against the Jets and Broncos and 10 against the Colts. They scored no points in the third quarter in all of their losses. The disparity is most stark in their losses, but the first half/second half difference has shown itself all year.

The Patriots have scored 196 points in first halves and 94 in second halves. Five times this season, the Patriots have not scored a single point in the third quarter – half of their games.

Time for a second-half adjustment
Time for a second-half adjustment - Extra Points - Boston.com

Patriots’ Offense Stalls in All-Too-Familiar Spot
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/20/sports/football/20patriots.html?_r=1

Second half trouble for Patriots
New England Patriots again have problems in second half - ESPN Boston

Patriot Strategy Makes Winners Of Jets
Patriot Strategy Makes Winners Of Jets

PATRIOTS CAN'T ADJUST IN 2ND HALF
Patriots can't adjust in 2nd Half - Real Postgame Show on WEEI

Road woes, second-half struggles seal Patriots’ fate in loss to Jets
Road woes, second-half struggles seal Patriots? fate in loss to Jets - Brockton, MA - The Enterprise

BB & 2nd Half Adjustments: What is going on?
BB & 2nd Half Adjustments: What is going on? - Sons of Sam Horn

Bruschi on Tap: Six observations
Six observations from New England Patriots' loss to New York Jets - Tedy Bruschi - ESPN Boston

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Re: [Article Round-Up] Patriots' 2nd Half Adjustment Problems

Some more statistics. Quoted section is from a July 2010 article.

Congratulations to the New England Patriots! They led the league in first half scoring differential. And not just barely. They had a different +63 points greater than the 2nd place New Orleans Saints. It seemed so frequent last season that the team would come into the game guns blazing and try and bury their opponents early- and it usually worked. The Patriots usually had their opponents so far behind that no matter how they tried to claw back into the game, the Patriots' bend-don't-break defense would hold them off.

Unfortunately, after the Patriots had built up large leads at the half, they usually gave it away. The team ranked 24th in Third Quarter differential and 17th in Second Half differential. That's huge for a team that was the best in the league in the first half. This means that opposing teams would come out after the half and score, usually at will, against the Patriots. They would claw back into the game and make the games nerve wracking for fans everywhere.

After briefly scanning the box scores, it looks like the Patriots let opposing teams claw their way into in the game 8 or so times after the half. That's far too many times for a team trying to crush the spirits of opposing teams. Clearly, opposing teams are figuring out how to beat the Patriots defense and stop the Patriots offense.

So what happened in most of these games? It's pretty simple.

Both Halves of the Issue: Patriots Need Half Time Adjustments - Pats Pulpit

Pats’ second effort again no good
Pats’ second effort again no good - BostonHerald.com

Patriots second-half problems persist
Patriots second-half problems persist | NFL - The News Tribune

 

[skinnydog]

That's a nice round up.

 

[condon84]

Re: [Article Round-Up] Patriots' 2nd Half Adjustment Problems

Wait for it.


Andy will be in here to explain everything.

 

[JMarr]

Re: [Article Round-Up] Patriots' 2nd Half Adjustment Problems

Wait for it.


Andy will be in here to explain everything.

Apparently he's busy at the moment in other threads--trying to educate the masses. Andy's work is never done.

 

[mgteich]

Re: [Article Round-Up] Patriots' 2nd Half Adjustment Problems

In 2007 the strategy worked. In 2009 it did not. Well, I suppose it worked well enough for us to win the division.

Some more statistics. Quoted section is from a July 2010 article.


Both Halves of the Issue: Patriots Need Half Time Adjustments - Pats Pulpit

Pats’ second effort again no good
Pats’ second effort again no good - BostonHerald.com

Patriots second-half problems persist
Patriots second-half problems persist | NFL - The News Tribune

 

[MoLewisrocks]

How could Andy explain away the rational of such genius NFL analysts as those cited by the OP? LOL

And Shame on Tedy for piling on sans coaches tape. It's an issue I have with former player analysts, particularly when they played here in this system. I bet there were plenty of Monday mornings when Tedy thought the coaches screwed up, until Bill started screening the damn film... Film doesn't lie. Players sometimes misinterpret what happened because in the heat of the moment they thought they saw something or they didn't see something, and the alternative is admitting they failed to execute. Players, including ex players, have egos - even if they hung them at the door when they played here. It annoys players to see scheme and system get the credit when they execute, which they insist belongs at least in equal measure to talent. Only problem is if that's the case then the same holds true when they don't, and blaming it on scheme is the lazy way out.

 

[Brady2Welker]

That Pulpit article had some scary stats.

I understand the greatest weapon on this team is Brady's arm, figuratively speaking, but we need to keep the defense honest with running more than on first down.

 

[jmt57]

I don't think anybody would dispute that for whatever reason, the Pats need to perform better at the start of the second half. Whether that is half-time adjustments, game planning, play calling, being too predictable, obtaining some high quality H2O from the water boy or whatever other reason, I don't think you'll find much debate on that topic.


The one thing I would say is that some of those stats are a bit skewed due to a few games in which the Pats have built big leads in the first half. For example I don't think it would be reasonable to expect the Pats to have outscored the Titans in the second half of last year's game by the same amount that they outscored them by in the first half. Similarly I don't believe it would have been reasonable to have expected the Pats to outscore the Bengals by three touchdowns in the second half a week ago; however not doing so results in stats that make it appear the team is slacking off in the second half.

The Pats outscored the Titans, Bucs and Jaguars by 87 points in the first half of those three games last year, and outscored the Bengals by 21 in the first half a week ago. Those games are going to alter the first-half versus second-half point differential stats quite a bit. Again, I'm not saying that second half productivity is not a concern; I just think those stats are deceiving and may not portray an accurate picture. It's not realistic to expect a team to be first in points differential in the second half simply because they were first in point differential in the first half.

 

[Ring 6]

That Pulpit article had some scary stats.

I understand the greatest weapon on this team is Brady's arm, figuratively speaking, but we need to keep the defense honest with running more than on first down.

The stats in that article are wrong, there was a thread on it here.
Guys I dont know what you want me to explain.
Do yourselves a favor and look at the tape. Thats what I did. Instead of repeating my first impression for 24 hours until I believed it must be fact, I went back and watched.
I found that my initial impression that Brady made bad decisions (before I watched the tape, I felt he was most responsible for the loss) was changed. My first impression that we did nothing different on defense all day was wrong.
Its a wonderful thing, the facts.
Go back and watch where Moss is where his defender is and where the safety is when Brady threw the first Int, and tell me that was a bad decision, because you cant. Tell me that if Moss ran that route as hard as he ran the TD route its not a TD and an entirely different game.
Take a look at the second Int and tell me you dont think an AllPro WR should make that catch. Tell me you dont see intentional underthrows like that cauight all the time.
Tell me Gronkowski wasnt open and underthrown. That is Light blocks Taylor we arent going in for another score.
Explaom to me why when 80-90% of the passes in the first half were to receivers covered by LBs and almost as many in the second half were to receivers covered b corners that this is not an adjustment. And tell me any offense that wouldn't think its an advantage to use a short passing game to get your outside receivers into man to man coverage so you can throw the ball to them.
The strategy was sound, they execution was bad.
Do you think the offensive players played well in the second half?

 

[RayClay]

They haven't made real good second half adjustments since Weis. McDaniels got them to score 800 points in the first halves, making adjustments moot until the most important game where we needed only to score an average amount of points to win.

Part of that might have been due to Maroney, if he really was the problem, because a good run dominated series or two in the second half would have been just the ticket to slow down and beat up that giants rush.

 

[borg]

Can't run the ball...can't defend the pass. Both are necessary to preserve leads. Seems pretty simple

 

[NYCPatsFan]

I remember last season Rob or Mo pointing out to some interviews with existing players who mentioned that these "2nd half adjustments" were never really as big or as important as made out to be by the media (and fans).

 

[NYCPatsFan]

...

And Shame on Tedy for piling on sans coaches tape. It's an issue I have with former player analysts, particularly when they played here in this system. I bet there were plenty of Monday mornings when Tedy thought the coaches screwed up, until Bill started screening the damn film... Film doesn't lie. Players sometimes misinterpret what happened because in the heat of the moment they thought they saw something or they didn't see something, and the alternative is admitting they failed to execute. Players, including ex players, have egos - even if they hung them at the door when they played here. It annoys players to see scheme and system get the credit when they execute, which they insist belongs at least in equal measure to talent. Only problem is if that's the case then the same holds true when they don't, and blaming it on scheme is the lazy way out.

and yet this awful Tedy, who was key defensive player with the Pats for so many years, continues to commit the same mistake without thinking about what happened when he was playing here, right?

 

[TedyB54]

Going back 18 games now, 2/3 of total points scored occur in the 1st half, only 1/3 of total Patriot points are scored in the 2nd half of games. Meaning, the offense scores twice as many points in the 1st half as it does in the 2nd half.

I wonder if this is actually part of the problem. What I mean is, if the offense is clicking well in the first half, then what adjustments to it would the Patriots want to make going into the second half? Isn't it really their opponents that are making the adjustments to counter what the Pats did in the first half?

Granted, they should still be trying to make some changes on the fly once they see what the other team is doing differently in the second half, but as far as going into the half and revising a game plan that's been working well up to that point may not be as much of an issue for the Patriots.

 

[mosi]

Just watching the game now but the pats look fantastic in the first 20 minutes. Dominating on offense and pretty solid on defense.

I don't get it.

 

[reflexblue]

Just watching the game now but the pats look fantastic in the first 20 minutes. Dominating on offense and pretty solid on defense.

I don't get it.

I don't either its inexplicable, especially Bradys play in the second half.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Just watching the game now but the pats look fantastic in the first 20 minutes. Dominating on offense and pretty solid on defense.

I don't get it.

Of course, one of the problems was despite looking fantastic it was still a game because they weren't scoring...

As for adjustments, there is no such thing as "halftime adjustments" because halftime lasts for 12 minutes less travel time to and from the locker room. Adjustments are made from the first snap of any game. Scripted plays are run in part to test an opponents thought process vs. game plan expectations, and the adjustments are made accordingly as indicated. It is a game long process. Had our offense executed better in scoring situations in the first half, the outcome of the game may have been altered. That seemed to be the case last week. You get up enough it changes everything. You blow scoring opportunities and let teams hang around and it changes everything. We went into the locker room 14-10. We left several points on the field, and allowed the JETS to hang and even build momentum with that long FG in the waning seconds of the half. We held them on the first drive of the second half, but then we turned the ball over repeatedly. You don't win those games on the road no matter who the coordinator is... Whereas if one of those turnovers is a reception leading to a TD and another is even an INC, you quite possibly do - and the coordinator is a non issue if not a genius.

 

[D-Money]

I never thought that Sanchez would outplay Brady but thats wat happened in that second half.

 

[letekro]

There is nothing mystical about the second half. As someone said, adjustments are made throughout the game.

The thing with the second half is-- it's WINNING TIME. This is when the crunch time plays are made or not made. The Patriots are not making those plays in recent times. We used to have a veteran defense that made plays in these moments. We used to have a QB that hung in there the extra half-second to deliver the ball on target to open receivers. We don't have that right now. Shame on all these "experts" for piling on the coaches.