Why Overreaction Is Usually Wrong

[Ring 6]

Any Given Sunday is a cliche that is based in fact.
There is such a small margin between success and failure on any given play, and the key plays that decide a game.
The best players are most likely to succeed over the course of a season, less likely over the course of a game, less likely over the course of a single drive andless likley over the course of a play.
There is so much debate over the second half yesterday, but consider this:
-If there was a penalty on an incomplete 3rd down pass, or Brady was off by about an inch on the passes to Hernandez or Moss, the Patriots may have been shut out in the first half. If Moss catches either of the Ints, which I believe after reviewing the tape he should have, and/or the 3rd and 7 he was one step short on, we may have scored 21 2nd half points. Those 2-3 plays per half going one way or the other completely reverse the success or failure. You can take a couple of defensive plays here or there and see the same thing.

Overall, the Patriots did not play nearly well enuogh to win the game, but even in a 14 point loss the margin is slim.
I suppose we could go back to last week and isolate a couple of plays that may have changed that game as well.
The point I am trying to make is the quality of a team is determined over the course of a season, and both overating the team based on week 1 or underrating based on week 2 is premature.

The consensus of the board seemed to have the team at 10-11 wins this year. Winning at home vs a playoff team and losing on the road vs a playoff team are both pretty consistent with that.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Any Given Sunday is a cliche that is based in fact.
There is such a small margin between success and failure on any given play, and the key plays that decide a game.
The best players are most likely to succeed over the course of a season, less likely over the course of a game, less likely over the course of a single drive andless likley over the course of a play.
There is so much debate over the second half yesterday, but consider this:
-If there was a penalty on an incomplete 3rd down pass, or Brady was off by about an inch on the passes to Hernandez or Moss, the Patriots may have been shut out in the first half. If Moss catches either of the Ints, which I believe after reviewing the tape he should have, and/or the 3rd and 7 he was one step short on, we may have scored 21 2nd half points. Those 2-3 plays per half going one way or the other completely reverse the success or failure. You can take a couple of defensive plays here or there and see the same thing.

Overall, the Patriots did not play nearly well enuogh to win the game, but even in a 14 point loss the margin is slim.
I suppose we could go back to last week and isolate a couple of plays that may have changed that game as well.
The point I am trying to make is the quality of a team is determined over the course of a season, and both overating the team based on week 1 or underrating based on week 2 is premature.

The consensus of the board seemed to have the team at 10-11 wins this year. Winning at home vs a playoff team and losing on the road vs a playoff team are both pretty consistent with that.

The problem isn't yesterday's game so much as the team's DNA. They don't make plays in the second half on the road. It's gotten to the point where a statistical aberration is less and less likely.

The Patriots won three Super Bowls by beating teams by a field goal week after week. They were by far the better team, as everyone knew they would win. Now they find themselves "a few plays away" from winning all of these losses. I don't buy it, and I think it comes down to deeper problems. The team isn't mentally or physically good enough to overcome mistakes. Every team makes mistakes- INTs, penalties, dropped balls- and you could make the argument that if the Jets had done this and that they would have won by 28. This is a 14 point loss. Not good.

That said, by any objective standard this is a very talented team that I don't think any team really wants to play. They have a lot more pieces to the puzzle than most teams, but they aren't good enough right now to grind out victories against tough teams on the road. Now, how can they improve? That's a tough one, as every team in the NFL is trying to improve. The Pats can hope that these younger guys will grow up fast and that they're not as far away as it appears. I think this team still has one good draft before they're really good again, but who knows, in this era if you can make the playoffs, you can win a Super Bowl.

 

[Sicilian]

I agree. Though unfortunately, the people who realize this don't need to hear it, and the people who don't realize this are likely NOT to hear it.

 

[Ring 6]

The problem isn't yesterday's game so much as the team's DNA. They don't make plays in the second half on the road. It's gotten to the point where a statistical aberration is less and less likely.

The Patriots won three Super Bowls by beating teams by a field goal week after week. They were by far the better team, as everyone knew they would win. Now they find themselves "a few plays away" from winning all of these losses. I don't buy it, and I think it comes down to deeper problems. The team isn't mentally or physically good enough to overcome mistakes. Every team makes mistakes- INTs, penalties, dropped balls- and you could make the argument that if the Jets had done this and that they would have won by 28. This is a 14 point loss. Not good.

That said, by any objective standard this is a very talented team that I don't think any team really wants to play. They have a lot more pieces to the puzzle than most teams, but they aren't good enough right now to grind out victories against tough teams on the road. Now, how can they improve? That's a tough one, as every team in the NFL is trying to improve. The Pats can hope that these younger guys will grow up fast and that they're not as far away as it appears. I think this team still has one good draft before they're really good again, but who knows, in this era if you can make the playoffs, you can win a Super Bowl.

Last years team and this years teams are as different as 2002 and 2003 or 2004 and 2005 or 2007 and 2008 (well maybe not that example).
Last years melt downs were not by this years team.
Every Patriot team has had games where 'a few plays' were the difference between winning and losing with varying results.
Yesterdays game may be the rule or may be the exception, we simply do not know. We could be better, or we could be worse than we looked yesterday.
Its an incorrect overeaction to project this game (or last game) on to the rest of the schedule.
It would have been wrong 2 weeks in to 2002. It would have been wrong 4 weeks into 2003. It would have been wrong early in 2005 and 2008 as well, and probably every year in reality.

We have played worse games than yesterday and gone on to win Championships, and we have played better games than yesterday and failed to total 11 wins.
The same team that lost 31-0 to the Bills, won the SB. The same team that killed the Steelers on opening day went 9-7.
The same team that were a bad call from beating the undefeated Colts were blown out at home by Baltimore in the playoffs.

 

[satz]

What we are seeing is years of using older veterans and now replacing every one is a short time.

Instead of seeing young players develop among veterans we just have alot of youth with no veteran presence around.

 

[LuthierJr]

If we to go back to the years we won the SB's I bet after these losses people were going nuts too with the gloom and doom. Not saying we are superbowl bound (who knows), but come on it's one loss. We will lose more. Hopefully we learn and get better from the losses. Yes it's starting to become a trend blowing leads, but I have no doubt the coaching staff and players are all well aware and doing everything they can to make sure they improve in these areas.

 

[condon84]

Why Overreaction Is Usually Wrong

 

[WhiZa]

I already feel bad for Buffalo next week. Getting the Patriots at home after a bad loss... ouch.

 

[Ring 6]

Why Overreaction Is Usually Wrong

I agree overreacting that the Jets offense is any good after 1 game contrary to all of the previous evidence is shaky

 

[boston22407]

Yes.i want to make a decision till week 9 or 10

 

[Rob0729]

I said after last week that the defense would be a rollercoaster ride at least for the first half. Yesterday proved that. Unfortunately, since Brady became a starter, he has at least one turd game a year. Hopefully yesterday is it and the only one.

I don't think the Jets are as good as they looked yesterday (they were a Jeckyl and Hyde team yesterday too although they became Jeckyl when it counted) and I don't think the Pats are as bad as they looked in the second half. You need five to eight games before you can make a definitive estimate. I still think the Pats have a good chance to win the division.

I am guilty as anyone to make quick reactions especially if something backs my beliefs, but I am not panicking today and I wasn't predicting Super Bowl after last week.

 

[condon84]

I agree overreacting that the Jets offense is any good after 1 game contrary to all of the previous evidence is shaky

What previous evidence are you referring to? That they led the league in rushing last year?

 

[TruthSeeker]

What we are seeing is years of using older veterans and now replacing every one is a short time.

Instead of seeing young players develop among veterans we just have alot of youth with no veteran presence around.

Bingo, we have bingo. No veteran leadership on defense is killing this team. When Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel & Randal Gay broke into the NFL, they had Rodney Harrison and Ty Law to lean on and learn from. Vince Wilfork had Ted Washington to teach him. Our defense will suffer becuase of this.

 

[SoonerPatriot]

The "theory" that trends can't possibly continue from season to season is patently absurd. There are a number of players on this year's team who played on last year's team. A significant number. In fact, it's the majority. The majority couldn't close games last year and so far they've shown difficulty closing games this year albeit in a very small sample.

It's laughable to theorize everyone's own individual personality is simply erased by BB after each season and a new one is uploaded the following year.

By their logic, the championship teams of 2001, 2003 and 2004 would share NONE of the same hallmarks (mental toughness, smarts, etc.) which again is pretty laughable and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of human nature which in this particular case is not at all surprising.

 

[Rob0729]

What previous evidence are you referring to? That they led the league in rushing last year?

Last year was last year. Currently, their leading RB wasn't even on the team last year. How is last year relevant since Shonn Greene has been inconsistent and LT has been their consistent runner.

 

[condon84]

Last year was last year. Currently, their leading RB wasn't even on the team last year. How is last year relevant since Shonn Greene has been inconsistent and LT has been their consistent runner.

So Andy was reacting after week one's result then? Isn't that an overreaction to claim a team's offense is the worst in the NFL after one week?

 

[Rob0729]

So Andy was reacting after week one's result then? Isn't that an overreaction to claim a team's offense is the worst in the NFL after one week?

He might be overracting based on the offseason, preseason, and first game, but he did base his opinion based on all of those things not just the first game. But after a week or two all we have is opinions. We haven't seen enough from any teams to make definitive answers.

 

[Ring 6]

What previous evidence are you referring to? That they led the league in rushing last year?

They are not the same team that led the league in rushing. 1400 yards and the best blocker are gone.

 

[Ring 6]

The "theory" that trends can't possibly continue from season to season is patently absurd. There are a number of players on this year's team who played on last year's team. A significant number. In fact, it's the majority. The majority couldn't close games last year and so far they've shown difficulty closing games this year albeit in a very small sample.

It's laughable to theorize everyone's own individual personality is simply erased by BB after each season and a new one is uploaded the following year.

By their logic, the championship teams of 2001, 2003 and 2004 would share NONE of the same hallmarks (mental toughness, smarts, etc.) which again is pretty laughable and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of human nature which in this particular case is not at all surprising.

It is equally absurd to say a team with 7 new starters on defense is the same team as last year.

 

[Ring 6]

So Andy was reacting after week one's result then? Isn't that an overreaction to claim a team's offense is the worst in the NFL after one week?

Why bother arguing based on the real comments?
I said that for a month I have been saying the Jet offense MAY BE the worst in the NFL.
That was based on what they did last year, the key losses they had and their preseason dysfunction.
In other words, I said it before ANYONE played any games, and noted that game 1 appeared to reinforce it.
Clearly it was not a safe comment in fear of being wrong. Bold statements are sometimes right and sometimes wrong. This one is no more certainly wrong today than it was right a week ago.


And by the way to say overreacting to 1 game is wrong is consistent with me saying the Jets MAY BE the worst offense, instead of saying they ARE, which would be an overreaction.