Expectations

[Ring 6]

Bingo. Barring a Brady injury, predicting less than 10 wins is a fools errand IMO.

Here is the data you requested.

Since 2005 there were 14 teams with a top 5 offense without a top 10 defense.

2009 - NO, SD, Philly
2008 - NO, SD, Ariz, GB
2007 - Dallas
2006 - Indy, Dallas, NO
2005 - NYG, Cincy, SD

of those teams 11 made it to the playoffs (79%) and the average win total is 10.4.

Obviously this group suffers from small-sample-size-itis, but it is interesting to note that 3 SB entrants are found in there, as well as two victors.

Frankly if my expectations of Brady with the weapons he has this year are correct, we win 12 games with the worst D in the NFL. (I would have said 32nd ranked but the dominating O will result in the D ranking higher than their talent)

 

[mgteich]

IMHO, a bottom five defense in points allowed will not get us to 12 wins and likely not the playoffs. A 31st rated defense won't get us to the playoffs.

Frankly if my expectations of Brady with the weapons he has this year are correct, we win 12 games with the worst D in the NFL. (I would have said 32nd ranked but the dominating O will result in the D ranking higher than their talent)

 

[kdels62]

Great breakdown and a lot of interesting information. You guys really shouldn't be so negative the Pats floor is about 10 wins since they have the talent where it counts in today's NFL which is modeled after the success's of your team anyway.

 

[Ring 6]

IMHO, a bottom five defense in points allowed will not get us to 12 wins and likely not the playoffs. A 31st rated defense won't get us to the playoffs.

Its kind of circular. Because if we are the best offense, we wont be a bottom 5 ranked defense, since the defense will benefit from the offenses success.
A better way to put it is that if Brady is what I expect 9similar to Brady of 07) and the weapons are near what they appear to be we would win 12 games with anyones defense.

 

[BradyToAmendola]

Really good thread, Oswelk.

I see this offense being at least top 5 this year, if not top 3.

 

[mosi]

Exactly. I posted, yesterday, virtually the same thing that you just said.... I am fed up with the "doom and gloom" attitude that is floating around. Damn, they havent even started the season yet If they open up at 0-6, then its doom and gloom, but they can go 6-0 just as easily, as of now.... so the doom and gloom must go.

It may not be 6-0. IMO, but I believe it will be a lot closer to 6-0 than 0-6.

Last year, there were only two games that the Pats had no business winning. The Saints game and the last Ravens game. All of the other games were in their hand.

What will this year bring? Let me think.

The offense last year was the problem. Has it gotten better? Think so.

The defense las year was a problem. Has it gotten better? Think so.

The Pats may not go 16-0 but they are going to be competitive in almost every game they play.