I went with 10-6 for now. The defense will be better than expected and the offense will be slightly worse than expected. I think our running game is going to be weak if we lose Fred Taylor and Morris, which we likely will at some point.
The passing game should be much better than 2009. I expect Brady to throw for 4000+ yards and between 30 and 40 touchdowns. I have not seen Tate do a whole lot as a receiver yet, but that may not mean anything. I certainly see Edelman as the better #3 option at this point.
My overall feelings about the 2010 season:
- Fans are overconfident about our offense. I think Brady will be the best QB in the league this year as far as ability goes, but he is counting on a ton of young players and a fairly new oline that seems to really struggle with run blocking against big defensive lines.
I see a lot of spread offense coming back as the RBs struggle to find holes at times throughout the year. It would help a lot if we could count on Fred Taylor being healthy for 16 games. But at the moment, it seems to me that the spread plays much more to this team's strength than the running game. Other than the TEs, who will make a big contribution in 2010, I think BB's goal to become a physical offense is still a pipe dream at this point.
- We are way too pessimistic about the defense. I never liked Butler as much as so many people did last year, but I think he can still be a solid #2 corner. McCourty and Spikes are the real deal. I see this defense picking up steam as the younger guys adapt to the NFL.
I am slightly worried about Mayo's continued difficulty with reading plays. If this is a real problem, and doesn't have something to do with the preseason, I expect the team to switch to a simpler scheme again and let these young guys be aggressive. Still, they should be a top 10 unit by the end of the year.
There is no one left to impress on this side of the ball, except for Wilfork, so young guys like Chung, Mayo, and Spikes should feel more comfortable stepping into a vocal role as they make more and more plays throughout the season.
- The special teams is going to be one of the best units in the NFL. They looked very, very good this preseason. It's clear that BB made a commitment to improving the field position game, and so far he has succeeded with flying colors. Kyle Arrington looks like a "special" special teams guy to my untrained eye.