UFC 117 predictions

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Main card
Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Junior dos Santos (Title shot)
JDS wins by TKO 2nd round
Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida
Hughes by unanimous decision
Lightweight bout: Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Guida by split decision
Catchweight bout (171.5 Ibs): Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves (Title shot)
Fitch by unanimous decision
Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen
Silva by KO 1st round

Why:
JDS is too good of a striker for Nelson to contend with. I think round 1 he might get JDS on the ground once and put him in a bit of trouble, but round 2 JDS catches him and finishes which sets up a great fight with the winner of Brock/Cain.

Hughes against another Gracie disciple... weee, have I mentioned my love for the WW division? No, that rant is upcoming...

Guida I think has something to prove here but RDA is going to be a tough opponent, I think Guida wins 2/3 on 2/3 and takes it.

I think the year off and the usual trouble making weight will cost Alves this fight. Fitch will grind him down as per usual. Either way the winner gets a rematch with GSP (after GSP crushes Koscheck in their rematch). Seriously, the WW division is getting really effing boring. GSP has owned everyone and most of the other top competition refuses to fight each other. /yawn Oh goodie, GSP can own Shields in a year or so. What then? Seriously. Watching GSP own the same guys over and over is really lame. They can avoid this by throwing him against far inferior fighters like Hardy but we all know how exciting THAT is... I say GSP abandons WW, goes on sabadical, trys out for the Canadian Olympic wrestling team in 2012, then comes back and fights at middleweight after having spent a year or two putting on the weight to do so successfully.

Everyone hates Silva for his poor performances lately, but we've all come to hate Sonnen more for his idiocy. I understand that you have to go in to a fight with the mentality that you can win, but come on. He's talking like Silva is some chump. I think it goes down like this: Chael "brings the fight to Silva" as he has said he will, and he ends up KTFO for it like everyone else who has brought the fight to Silva.
In my dream world: Chael crushes Silva's face for 4 rounds, but gets KTFO in the 5th round. I want them both to suffer, and while I am sick of Silva as the champion, I REALLY don't want to hear Sonnen talk any more than I have to, and him as champ would be painful.

Thoughts/predictions? (to the 1 or 2 other people on the board who care about MMA)

 

[Aldogg]

The only reason I want Sonnen to win tonight is because I have an extreme dislike for Silva after some of his recent performances. But my money sadly is on Silva, even though I would love to see Sonnen win the title tonight.

I agree with a lot of your picks. I think Fitch wins but we all lose since it will be 15 minutes of lay and pray from Fitch.

Guida vs dos Anjos I think will be fight of the night material. Guida always puts on a show and even though I think dos Anjos takes it by decision.

Almeida I think will tap out Hughes, and JDS gives Big Country a dirt nap in the first.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

All I have to say is wow. It was a good card with an insane finish. It was so close to my dream world scenario. Chael really proved a lot. I think it exposed Silva's game and it will either make Silva change it up, or he's not going to be the champ much longer!

 

[Aldogg]

I had a feeling that triangle was coming. Silva was looking for it for the last couple of rounds, Sonnen just was smart enough to stay out of it until the 5th. I was very angry when Sonnen tapped, I was loving seeing Silva get beat on.

And that Hughes choke out was sick. Didn't see that coming last night, and much respect to Big Country too, he took some nasty shots from JDS.

 

[STFarmy]

Love Sonnen, and I was rooting for him all the way. Silva is a dangerous guy for sure, but this fight proved he's not the unbeatable foe he was perceived to be. I think there should be a rematch as well, there were some times when Rosenthal could have stopped that fight in favor of Sonnen.

 

[MOSS]

Main card
Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Junior dos Santos (Title shot)
JDS wins by TKO 2nd round
Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida
Hughes by unanimous decision
Lightweight bout: Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Guida by split decision
Catchweight bout (171.5 Ibs): Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves (Title shot)
Fitch by unanimous decision
Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen
Silva by KO 1st round

Why:
JDS is too good of a striker for Nelson to contend with. I think round 1 he might get JDS on the ground once and put him in a bit of trouble, but round 2 JDS catches him and finishes which sets up a great fight with the winner of Brock/Cain.

Hughes against another Gracie disciple... weee, have I mentioned my love for the WW division? No, that rant is upcoming...

Guida I think has something to prove here but RDA is going to be a tough opponent, I think Guida wins 2/3 on 2/3 and takes it.

I think the year off and the usual trouble making weight will cost Alves this fight. Fitch will grind him down as per usual. Either way the winner gets a rematch with GSP (after GSP crushes Koscheck in their rematch). Seriously, the WW division is getting really effing boring. GSP has owned everyone and most of the other top competition refuses to fight each other. /yawn Oh goodie, GSP can own Shields in a year or so. What then? Seriously. Watching GSP own the same guys over and over is really lame. They can avoid this by throwing him against far inferior fighters like Hardy but we all know how exciting THAT is... I say GSP abandons WW, goes on sabadical, trys out for the Canadian Olympic wrestling team in 2012, then comes back and fights at middleweight after having spent a year or two putting on the weight to do so successfully.

Everyone hates Silva for his poor performances lately, but we've all come to hate Sonnen more for his idiocy. I understand that you have to go in to a fight with the mentality that you can win, but come on. He's talking like Silva is some chump. I think it goes down like this: Chael "brings the fight to Silva" as he has said he will, and he ends up KTFO for it like everyone else who has brought the fight to Silva.
In my dream world: Chael crushes Silva's face for 4 rounds, but gets KTFO in the 5th round. I want them both to suffer, and while I am sick of Silva as the champion, I REALLY don't want to hear Sonnen talk any more than I have to, and him as champ would be painful.

Thoughts/predictions? (to the 1 or 2 other people on the board who care about MMA)

Agree with everything been said here.

 

[Kontradiction]

Silva was SO lucky to win that fight. I've seen several fights with him and I keep hearing everything about how he's pound for pound the best fighter in the UFC, and I've yet to be impressed.

 

[STFarmy]

Silva was SO lucky to win that fight. I've seen several fights with him and I keep hearing everything about how he's pound for pound the best fighter in the UFC, and I've yet to be impressed.

I've been rooting against Silva for a while now, but there's no denying the guy's a beast. He makes striking look EFFORTLESS, while knocking out tough guys like Forrest Griffin. Griffin may not be the most technical fighter around, but his chin is no joke. And Silva made him look like an idiot in that fight. On top of his striking, Silva a BJJ black belt, I believe under the Gracies, so his ground game is dangerous too.

That being said, I think that wrestlers are his weakness. Henderson did pretty good against him by taking him down, Patrick Cote was doing well until he hurt his knee, and Sonnen MAULED him for 4.5+ rounds. I heard Vitor Belfort is next for Silva though - that will be tough too.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

I've been rooting against Silva for a while now, but there's no denying the guy's a beast. He makes striking look EFFORTLESS, while knocking out tough guys like Forrest Griffin. Griffin may not be the most technical fighter around, but his chin is no joke. And Silva made him look like an idiot in that fight. On top of his striking, Silva a BJJ black belt, I believe under the Gracies, so his ground game is dangerous too.

That being said, I think that wrestlers are his weakness. Henderson did pretty good against him by taking him down, Patrick Cote was doing well until he hurt his knee, and Sonnen MAULED him for 4.5+ rounds. I heard Vitor Belfort is next for Silva though - that will be tough too.

Silva is an insane striker, still probably the best counter puncher in the world. Wrestlers negate Silva's kicking and clinch game, so if they have a chin of mythical preportions, they can take Silva out. I mean, look at Sonnen's face compared to Silva's face after the fight. They both rocked each other on the feet, but 95% of the strikes were landed with Silva on the bottom and Sonnen on the top (AND they were landed at a 10-1ish ratio in favor of Sonnen!!) and if you had to judge the fight without seeing it, only seeing the fighters faces, you would assume the roles were reversed.
When Silva first came to the UFC and KTFO of the man with the Iron Chin (Chris Leben) it really showed how much power this guy had. He then did some SERIOUS knee to face reconstruction on one of the most dominant middleweights in UFC history (Rich Franklin) twice! After that he had a few spectacular knock outs at LHW but most of the rest of his middleweight fights were unspectacular or against non top tier fighters (in my opinion).
For whatever reason, NO ONE could figure out Silva's counter punch game, and if they did get him to the ground, his superior BJJ pulled out the win (I am almost positive he's NOT a Gracie puke. I believe he got his black belt under Nogueria).
When Machida got the LHW belt everyone thought he was going to dominate the LHWs like Silva dominated (since they had similar counterpunch styles and were bff homo training partners). I think Rua's two (in my opinion) wins against this style of fighting showed the first chink in the "elusive counter puncher" armor the champions relied on.
Previously almost everyone was slow and hesitent in coming at Silva, allowing him the first few minutes, or even the first whole round to get his distance and timing down. Sonnen came out (like he said he would!) and never at any time let Silva get comfortable. He comepletely took him out of his usual comfort zone. (If you rewatch the fight, you'll notice Silva trying his hands down, Neo-dodge-punch strategy that he uses so well once he has the aforementioned distance and timing down, but he was getting rocked for it because he never had a chance to catch up).

I think Vitor's strategy will be much closer to Shogun's rather than Sonnen's just because Vitor lacks the wrestling ability and strength to manhandle Silva in such a way.
I think if Vitor sets the correct game plan for the fight, he should be able to beat Silva (and he should get the fight, not a Sonnen-Silva rematch!).

 

[STFarmy]

Silva is an insane striker, still probably the best counter puncher in the world. Wrestlers negate Silva's kicking and clinch game, so if they have a chin of mythical preportions, they can take Silva out. I mean, look at Sonnen's face compared to Silva's face after the fight. They both rocked each other on the feet, but 95% of the strikes were landed with Silva on the bottom and Sonnen on the top (AND they were landed at a 10-1ish ratio in favor of Sonnen!!) and if you had to judge the fight without seeing it, only seeing the fighters faces, you would assume the roles were reversed.
When Silva first came to the UFC and KTFO of the man with the Iron Chin (Chris Leben) it really showed how much power this guy had. He then did some SERIOUS knee to face reconstruction on one of the most dominant middleweights in UFC history (Rich Franklin) twice! After that he had a few spectacular knock outs at LHW but most of the rest of his middleweight fights were unspectacular or against non top tier fighters (in my opinion).
For whatever reason, NO ONE could figure out Silva's counter punch game, and if they did get him to the ground, his superior BJJ pulled out the win (I am almost positive he's NOT a Gracie puke. I believe he got his black belt under Nogueria).
When Machida got the LHW belt everyone thought he was going to dominate the LHWs like Silva dominated (since they had similar counterpunch styles and were bff homo training partners). I think Rua's two (in my opinion) wins against this style of fighting showed the first chink in the "elusive counter puncher" armor the champions relied on.
Previously almost everyone was slow and hesitent in coming at Silva, allowing him the first few minutes, or even the first whole round to get his distance and timing down. Sonnen came out (like he said he would!) and never at any time let Silva get comfortable. He comepletely took him out of his usual comfort zone. (If you rewatch the fight, you'll notice Silva trying his hands down, Neo-dodge-punch strategy that he uses so well once he has the aforementioned distance and timing down, but he was getting rocked for it because he never had a chance to catch up).

I think Vitor's strategy will be much closer to Shogun's rather than Sonnen's just because Vitor lacks the wrestling ability and strength to manhandle Silva in such a way.
I think if Vitor sets the correct game plan for the fight, he should be able to beat Silva (and he should get the fight, not a Sonnen-Silva rematch!).

I like your analysis. I actually train in mma, so I notice a lot of the nuances of Silva's game, like the things you have pointed out. You're on point with your comments, and especially about why Sonnen did so well against Silva.

And I'm with you, I think Belfort could beat Silva. You never know, but it makes sense that he would take a Rua-esque strategy to beat Anderson. I don't care if it's a Belfort/Silva fight or a Sonnen rematch - either sounds great to me!

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

I like your analysis. I actually train in mma, so I notice a lot of the nuances of Silva's game, like the things you have pointed out. You're on point with your comments, and especially about why Sonnen did so well against Silva.

And I'm with you, I think Belfort could beat Silva. You never know, but it makes sense that he would take a Rua-esque strategy to beat Anderson. I don't care if it's a Belfort/Silva fight or a Sonnen rematch - either sounds great to me!

You sir got your wish. Ugh. Controversial decisions for a title ala: Rua/Machida or Edgar/Penn I can see a want/need for an immediate rematch, but when someone gets CHOKED OUT, they shouldn't get an immediate rematch just because they dominated the first 4 and a half rounds. I mean, wtf.
Grrr. This aggrivates me. Don't get me wrong, I want to see them fight again! Just not immediately.
I mean, the casual fan hates MMA when it's not spectacular KOs or submissions. So when a KO or submission happens, make sure that it COUNTS and the guy who lost doesn't get an immediate title shot.
What do you do if he does the same thing? 4 and a half rounds of domination and then he gets caught again? Do you just keep letting him fight the champion over and over until he finally gets it?
How about those 07 Pats? They DOMINATED forever, but then got super unlucky right at the end. They should get a redo right? I mean, the Giants shouldn't have even been in the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl, let alone WINNING! They should get an immediate rematch for the SB ring! Or how about the 04 Yankees? They were up what, 3 games to 0 on the Sox before the Sox came back? How about since the Yankees did so good those first 3 games, they get another 7 round playoff against the Sox before the Sox get to go to the World Series? [Enter examples of other sports here that continue to make my point]
I think giving Sonnen an immediate rematch takes away the integrity of the sport and makes finishing a fight meaningless, even though that is the ultimate goal of the fight.

 

[STFarmy]

You sir got your wish. Ugh. Controversial decisions for a title ala: Rua/Machida or Edgar/Penn I can see a want/need for an immediate rematch, but when someone gets CHOKED OUT, they shouldn't get an immediate rematch just because they dominated the first 4 and a half rounds. I mean, wtf.
Grrr. This aggrivates me. Don't get me wrong, I want to see them fight again! Just not immediately.
I mean, the casual fan hates MMA when it's not spectacular KOs or submissions. So when a KO or submission happens, make sure that it COUNTS and the guy who lost doesn't get an immediate title shot.
What do you do if he does the same thing? 4 and a half rounds of domination and then he gets caught again? Do you just keep letting him fight the champion over and over until he finally gets it?
How about those 07 Pats? They DOMINATED forever, but then got super unlucky right at the end. They should get a redo right? I mean, the Giants shouldn't have even been in the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl, let alone WINNING! They should get an immediate rematch for the SB ring! Or how about the 04 Yankees? They were up what, 3 games to 0 on the Sox before the Sox came back? How about since the Yankees did so good those first 3 games, they get another 7 round playoff against the Sox before the Sox get to go to the World Series? [Enter examples of other sports here that continue to make my point]
I think giving Sonnen an immediate rematch takes away the integrity of the sport and makes finishing a fight meaningless, even though that is the ultimate goal of the fight.

I see your point about rematches, but I think this is a unique case. Silva had been dominant in his last 7 fights (I think), which is 2 or 3 years. That's pretty unheard of, especially in today's era. And Sonnen beat the crap out of him. Bad. So considering that, I can see why Dana wants a rematch. It's still fresh in people's minds, and so they would probably be more likely buy a ppv headlined with that fight.

I honestly wouldn't have minded seeing Belfort get the shot though. He's a very dangerous striker that I think could give Silva a good run as well.