Will Moss become a very high-paid decoy?

[Fencer]

The argument for having your best WR turn into a decoy is:

• He's too good to single-cover, except in specialized scenarios (e.g., red zone, jailbreak blitz).
• He's not good enough to beat double coverage all that often, especially if you have a bunch of other skilled targets to throw to.
• You can refine your offensive schemes so that defenses can't get away with putting "one and a half" guys in coverage on him.

I can't think of very many cases where that's how things have played out with a team's best WR, but the Pats also have an unusual mix of supporting factors:

• Welker is outstanding at getting open.
• Brady's receiving targets beyond Moss/Welker could be pretty decent.
• Brady traditionally excels at finding and hitting the open guy.
• Brady traditionally does not excel in his accuracy on deep balls.

Even if I'm right in what I'm suggesting, there will be plays in which Moss runs away from double or triple coverage. And there will be plays in which he's single-covered, prudently or otherwise. But with Welker coming back from injury and the other receivers being young (or else quite aged), I'd expect defenses to frequently key on Moss and make everybody else prove it.

The exceptions, of course, would be when they go hard after Brady and make the blockers prove it instead ...

 

[Ring 6]

The argument for having your best WR turn into a decoy is:

• He's too good to single-cover, except in specialized scenarios (e.g., red zone, jailbreak blitz).
• He's not good enough to beat double coverage all that often, especially if you have a bunch of other skilled targets to throw to.
• You can refine your offensive schemes so that defenses can't get away with putting "one and a half" guys in coverage on him.

I can't think of very many cases where that's how things have played out with a team's best WR, but the Pats also have an unusual mix of supporting factors:

• Welker is outstanding at getting open.
• Brady's receiving targets beyond Moss/Welker could be pretty decent.
• Brady traditionally excels at finding and hitting the open guy.
• Brady traditionally does not excel in his accuracy on deep balls.

Even if I'm right in what I'm suggesting, there will be plays in which Moss runs away from double or triple coverage. And there will be plays in which he's single-covered, prudently or otherwise. But with Welker coming back from injury and the other receivers being young (or else quite aged), I'd expect defenses to frequently key on Moss and make everybody else prove it.

The exceptions, of course, would be when they go hard after Brady and make the blockers prove it instead ...

Doesnt that assume the other team will only play man? I don't think that will be the case.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I am having trouble parsing the logic here. Why use the best WR in the history of the game as a decoy instead of letting him score touchdowns?

 

[RayClay]

The argument for having your best WR turn into a decoy is:

• He's too good to single-cover, except in specialized scenarios (e.g., red zone, jailbreak blitz).
• He's not good enough to beat double coverage all that often, especially if you have a bunch of other skilled targets to throw to.
• You can refine your offensive schemes so that defenses can't get away with putting "one and a half" guys in coverage on him.

I can't think of very many cases where that's how things have played out with a team's best WR, but the Pats also have an unusual mix of supporting factors:

• Welker is outstanding at getting open.
• Brady's receiving targets beyond Moss/Welker could be pretty decent.
• Brady traditionally excels at finding and hitting the open guy.
• Brady traditionally does not excel in his accuracy on deep balls.

Even if I'm right in what I'm suggesting, there will be plays in which Moss runs away from double or triple coverage. And there will be plays in which he's single-covered, prudently or otherwise. But with Welker coming back from injury and the other receivers being young (or else quite aged), I'd expect defenses to frequently key on Moss and make everybody else prove it.

The exceptions, of course, would be when they go hard after Brady and make the blockers prove it instead ...

And this is a good thing. a big advantage over teams that don't have someone double, or even triple teamed.

We could either ignore it and keep trying to run up the score and get records like in 2007, or take advantage.

In 2007, when Moss was covered we threw to watson on the sideline and he stepped out of bounds, like it was tag football.

We need to predict the double, or triple team that will develop and run routes designed to rip through the middle of the field with Hernandez, Edelman, or Faulk leaving them in the open field and the defense out of position. Possible TD every time. Tate's bound to be covered. There's only 11 defenders, it's stupid to settle for safe plays with no YAC.

They must be forced to decide, with the threat of a TD if they fail.

It's also the only way Moss will get less than double coverage.

 

[emoney_33]

The argument for having your best WR turn into a decoy is:

• He's too good to single-cover, except in specialized scenarios (e.g., red zone, jailbreak blitz).
• He's not good enough to beat double coverage all that often, especially if you have a bunch of other skilled targets to throw to.
• You can refine your offensive schemes so that defenses can't get away with putting "one and a half" guys in coverage on him.

I can't think of very many cases where that's how things have played out with a team's best WR, but the Pats also have an unusual mix of supporting factors:

• Welker is outstanding at getting open.
• Brady's receiving targets beyond Moss/Welker could be pretty decent.
• Brady traditionally excels at finding and hitting the open guy.
• Brady traditionally does not excel in his accuracy on deep balls.

Even if I'm right in what I'm suggesting, there will be plays in which Moss runs away from double or triple coverage. And there will be plays in which he's single-covered, prudently or otherwise. But with Welker coming back from injury and the other receivers being young (or else quite aged), I'd expect defenses to frequently key on Moss and make everybody else prove it.

The exceptions, of course, would be when they go hard after Brady and make the blockers prove it instead ...

I don't even understand the premise of this post...

Last year teams had to cover ONLY Moss and Welker. Did you take a look at the year Moss had even with everything playing against the team offensively?

Anyway, I expect the Patriots to continue to do what's best for the team even when the Fans can't fully understand it. Despite what people want you to believe, Brady has and will continue to look for a trustworthy open receiver. Moss will get throws in double coverage from time to time to keep the defense honest and because well he's (still) a freak and can make plays. But in general I fully expect the offense to do what it has always done (even in 2007) which is come up with good game plans and let Brady make good decisions as he very frequently does.

 

[ausbacker]

No, he won't.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

I just want to say that Moss will retire as a Pat for several reasons. First, Tom will make sure of it and could have leverage if Tom makes it to FA. Second, I don't think Moss wants to end his career with another team, learn another offense and get on the same page with another QB.

 

[Patjew]

I just want to say that Moss will retire as a Pat for several reasons. First, Tom will make sure of it and could have leverage if Tom makes it to FA. Second, I don't think Moss wants to end his career with another team, learn another offense and get on the same page with another QB.

I hope you're right. We're lucky to have Moss on this team. I was thinking of starting a thread explaining why I think that Moss is the most underappreciated Patriot ever, but then I got too lazy. To summarize it, Moss is the most underappreciated Patriot ever.

 

[Deus Irae]

Moss beat a double team/over the top situation in the Atlanta game. Brady underthrew him. I'm not sure why you'd go the decoy route at that point.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Do decoys catch for 1200 yards and 10 TDs? If so then possibly

 

[emoney_33]

If a receiver is good enough to be a decoy, it doesn't make sense to use him as a decoy all season.

If a receiver is not good enough to be a decoy, you can't use him as a decoy.

 

[Schmo]

He could very well have 2007 numbers... thanks to (not despite of) our added WRs/TEs.

 

[deters]

Moss beat a double team/over the top situation in the Atlanta game. Brady underthrew him. I'm not sure why you'd go the decoy route at that point.

I wouldn't say he underthrew him much if at all. In Moss's earlier days he would have made that catch by leaping above the CB's. Now at this stage in his career esp in the preseason he doesn't want to risk injury and didn't try for the ball.

 

[Nikolai]

Yes, because Moss is a dog faker.

[/stupidity]

What Patjew and ausbacker said.

 

[Brady2Welker]

Moss won't be a decoy. Ideally we'll want to create some sort of mismatch of pulling the S down to account for one of our TE's allowing Brady to have the pick of the match ups he sees. Either way, I don't think Belichick will want us to have super quick drives (see 2007) unless its necessary. I think he prefers the time crunching, methodical drives.

 

[pherein]

Reggie Bush is at 8 mil a year. It works

 

[ahmed]

I wouldn't say he underthrew him much if at all. In Moss's earlier days he would have made that catch by leaping above the CB's. Now at this stage in his career esp in the preseason he doesn't want to risk injury and didn't try for the ball.

Brady definitely underthrew him. Moss had to slow down so the ball could reach him which gave the DBs the change to catch up to him as he way ahead of them. Even then, the ball was still behind him.

Regarding OP, hell no. Sure, there will be situations where opposite teams will worry so much about Moss that it will leave the rest of them free but at the end of the year, I still expect him to be our most productive WR.

 

[Brady2Welker]

Reggie Bush is at 8 mil a year. It works

Not a knock against Reggie Bush, but he's not the cog that makes the Saints offense run. Hes an extremely talented player, but they could survive without him.

 

[eagle eye]

Reggie Bush is at 8 mil a year. It works

Thats really funny Pherein.

In the case of Moss, he is just a fantastic player who played hurt last year and there were Patriots on here saying he was dogging it which was just so stupid. He played hurt last year, guys that take plays off will take weeks off when they are hurt. He is looking like he is back to his best again this year.

I suppose he is a decoy everytime Brady throws the ball to somebody else because everybody knows that when you hear Brady to Moss there is a big likleyhood you are going to hear TOUCHDOWN!!! very shortly after that.

 

[swheeler23]

When was the last time Brady connected with Moss on a deep ball?