I think you've got this just about 180 degrees out of turn, so we'll have to agree to disagree.
Really? But you don't want to explain what it is you think I've got backwards, eh? LOL
Most former players who talk to the cap or contracts or the CBA do so with about as much credibility as our local media. Most don't know roster rules and the like, either...
There is a fine explanation about Dumervil's situation from Andrew Brandt over on NFP. And a similar explanation of Andre Johnson's extension from LaCanfora over on NFL.com. His deal is predicated on achieving performance escalators over the next 5 seasons...a couple of down years or injuries to himself or his QB and his status as the highest paid WR in the league evaporates...and he can't really do anything about it because he further agreed to millions being tied to 90% attendance at off season workouts and full attendance at OTA's and camp...
Because of the reallocation rule they pretty much can't fully guarantee anything to these veteran QB's in an extension. That makes it hard to construct a contract with anything actually guaranteed beyond signing bonus. That bonus is limited to 5 year amortization under an expiring CBA. Once money is amortized it can never be moved short of accelerating in the event a player is cut, traded or retires. Brady's last deal divided his bonus money between signing bonus that was spread over 6 years and a guaranteed option bonus that was spread over the remaining 5. He also had portions of later salaries guaranteed. All of which facilitates the cap covering some of the guaranteed expense of these mega deals.
Manning's deal spread the signing bonus over 6 years and then his 3 roster bonuses in years 3-4-5 were converted and spread over the remaining years in his 9 year deal including even into his voidable years (2010 and 2012) which technically remain until he officially voids them after 2010. That amortized money will remain on the cap in those years in addition to any amortization from his new deal. Polian has always been down with the revolving credit contract plan, probably preferring to eat some dead cap AFTER Manning is gone rather than deal with it while he's still here...because Irsay was never in a position to compete otherwise. He had to sell personal assets to fund a substantial chunk of Manning's last signing bonus.
Even Bradfords deal, which could contain fully guaranteed salaries because it is a new deal and not an extension, only averages $12.5M per if he sees the whole 6 years. And we have yet to see any details on the level of guarantee of that $50M and what hurdles he has to clear playing time wise in order to achieve it. He isn't getting that up front. Manning and Brady as they have in the past will get deals without hurdles, and they will average in excess of $16M per.
Kraft has already handed Wilfork $18M in bonus money and Bodden is estimated to have gotten $6M. The rookies and other signings and what they likely set aside earmarked for Mankins probably totals another $20M+. $45M or so in bonus money. Kraft doesn't have the net operating income to pay out $95-100M in cash over cap in one season. About the only owner who does is Snyder. The most recent 2009 Forbes guesstimates had our 2008 operating income at $70M. Indy was at $56M. That is where bonus money (as well as all other operating expenses like coaching salaries and franchise and stadium operations) comes from.
Unless you are suggesting Kraft borrow from his other businesses or a bank... or Brady agree to accept rolling guarantees that aren't guarantees at all...things that good business wouldn't do, they aren't on the cusp of a deal. I'm sure they have parameters in place. The rub remains how to construct a deal so that one or the other or both sides aren't screwed to some extent. Brady is one player I'm sure understands all the nuances of cap and contracts. And if Manning isn't, Condon certainly does. Some players and agents have chosen to accept the best deal they can get at this juncture. Most of them had yet to bank a fraction of what these two have, and facing 2011 banking a few million more in 2010 may have appeared to them to be their best option. Most will be singing a different song in a couple of years when faced with the insecurity earning their so called guarantees or the expense of insuring them out of pocket (not to mention the daunting task of convincing an Insurance Company that your career is over due to career ending injury as opposed to mere wear and tear or injury induced decline).
Guaranteeing these two $50M isn't going to pose a problem. How to pay it to them without severely hamstringing yourself going forward or undercutting the league's position that player expenses are rising faster than revenue can increase remains an issue. The only way these deals get done this season is if the players opt to roll the dice on the deals that should take them to retirement...and I can't envision either of them doing that. Tom rolled the dice back in 2005 when he signed a cap friendly frontloaded deal he was never intended to play the final two seasons of. Unfortunately for him the unthinkable happened and in the 4th year of that deal the owners opted out of the CBA... I think Tom is done rolling the dice in the short term and coming up short in the long run.
