Outside Linebacker

[eom]

Re: Olb

Burgess played 3-4 DE in about two games last year, where he got blown up on regular basis. The rest of 2009 he was a DE in a 4-man line or at OLB. Don't comment if you have no idea what you're talking about; to say that he didn't spend more than 10% of his snaps at OLB is flat out ridiculous. Belichick himself labeled Burgess as an OLB multiple times.

what % of his snaps did he play OLB?

 

[AzPatsFan]

My theory is different from many. I maintain the pass rush or lack of it came from unfamiliarity by newcomers, but more from weakness against the Run. It wasn't a glaring hole, but nonetheless Teams could run against the Pats and did. At third down, it was frequently a 3rd and short, like 3rd and 2. Nobodies pass rush works well in that situation.

Toughening up the Run Defense by playing Warren/Lewis/Wright at RDE, and starting a big SILB run stuffer at ILB, and a tough run stopper at SS like Chung should solidify the Run Defense.

Facing 3rd and 8s, the Pass Rush will appear, as if by magic.

 

[eom]

My theory is different from many. I maintain the pass rush or lack of it came from unfamiliarity by newcomers, but more from weakness against the Run. It wasn't a glaring hole, but nonetheless Teams could run against the Pats and did. At third down, it was frequently a 3rd and short, like 3rd and 2. Nobodies pass rush works well in that situation.

Toughening up the Run Defense by playing Warren/Lewis/Wright at RDE, and starting a big SILB run stuffer at ILB, and a tough run stopper at SS like Chung should solidify the Run Defense.

Facing 3rd and 8s, the Pass Rush will appear, as if by magic.

yeah, I agree that this is at least a contributing factor ---- it'd be interesting to compare their 'pass rush opportunities' in '09 with, say, '07.

if Iwas to go back and count them up game by game, what kind of yardage parameters do you think we should use?

 

[jmt57]

Pat Kirwan of nfl.com offers a sobering viewpoint on high expectations from rookie pass rushers. He points out that for every Clay Matthews of Brian Orakpo there is a Vernon Gholston or Jarvis Moss.

Want to predict which rookies will be busts? Look at pass rushers

The problem for many rookie pass rushers is that they have technique deficiencies, lack multiple pass rush moves and don't realize the level of desire necessary to succeed at the pro level. Another issue is that many come in undersized and with limited strength or power. They get so beat up playing the run, that they have nothing left when it's time to pressure the quarteback.

 

[jmt57]

Mike Reiss gives his outlook of the linebacker position in this piece for espn boston. He sees possible improvement due to the addition of the new players: Cunningham, Spikes, McKenzie - and possibly even Crable.

Camp Countdown: LBs & development - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Why it’s a top issue: One of the Patriots' main weaknesses in 2009 was a lack of a pass rush: The team blitzed more than 40 percent of the time, ranking them seventh in the NFL, which was a sign that there wasn't enough pressure out of the standard four-man rush. The fourth rusher most often comes from the outside linebacker spot. Furthermore, the heart of the defense is the inside linebacker spot and former undrafted free agent Gary Guyton played 84 percent of the snaps there in 2009, the second highest total of any defender.

 

[eom]

Pat Kirwan of nfl.com offers a sobering viewpoint on high expectations from rookie pass rushers. He points out that for every Clay Matthews of Brian Orakpo there is a Vernon Gholston or Jarvis Moss.

Want to predict which rookies will be busts? Look at pass rushers

The problem for many rookie pass rushers is that they have technique deficiencies, lack multiple pass rush moves and don't realize the level of desire necessary to succeed at the pro level. Another issue is that many come in undersized and with limited strength or power. They get so beat up playing the run, that they have nothing left when it's time to pressure the quarteback.

yeah, that's been posted here:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/339722-schefter-burgess-re-signed-one-year-deal-page10.html

and this was my response:

these are the half of kirwan's 38 from the last 2 years:
note: I just categorized by the position they're listed on profootballfocus
player - snaps/(sacks + hits + pressures)

2008 - average snaps = 398
long (stl 4-3 de) - 733/32
jackson (sea 4-3 de) - 657/17
harvey (jax 4-3 de) - 607/29
groves (jax 4-3 de) - 274/14
merling (mia 3-4 de) - 483/16
campbell (az 3-4 de) - 186/3
balmer (sf 3-4 de) - 76/0
gholston (lol 3-4 olb) - 169/7

2009 - average snaps = 515
orakpo (was 4-3 olb) - 922/39
brown (car 4-3 de) - 401/23
barwin (hou 4-3 de) - 369/16
maybin (buf 4-3 de) - 231/5
kruger (bal 4-3 de) - 176/5
jackson (kc 3-4 de) - 700/8
matthews (gb 3-4 olb) - 860/49
english (sd 3-4 olb) - 547/25
ayers (den 3-4 olb) - 426/22
(excluded)
veikune (cle - ilb) - 16/0
brown (az) - IR

edit:


I don't think small sample stats are ever sobering, but it looks like the 400 snaps I mentioned in an earlier post is a pretty realistic target, if you want to just lump all these guys together and judge cunningham on the pats by them.
I don't have any source on '06 + '07, so I left them out.

and for perspective, tbc's (sack + hit + pressure) proportionate total on 400 snaps (he played 725 snaps) would've been 24 last year, which is similar to ayers and matthews, and a little bit better than english.

bottom line, of 4 players at his position, I'd consider 3 a success, with gholston being the bust --- hopefully he's better than gholston....
if you want to add in orakpo and the 4-3 ends, you end up at around 7/13 that look pretty successful.
if he has to be droy pro-bowler with 10+ sacks, then I think you might be setting the bar a little high.

 

[jmt57]

Bruce Allen looks at each of the eight outside linebackers in this piece for Patriots Daily.

Positional Previews – Outside Linebackers | Patriots Daily

At this point, this is one of the weakest areas on the team, and without much depth to speak of. Beyond Banta-Cain and Burgess, the Patriots are going to need a big rookie year from Cunningham, and hope that Crable can get on the field and live up to the promise he had coming out of Michigan two years ago. That might be a tall order. The Patriots have done a good job building up depth and experience at all other defensive positions, but this remains an area in desperate need of upgrade. Hopefully Cunningham can step in, but that’s a tall order for a rookie. Don’t be surprised to see the Patriots bringing guys in that have been cut by other teams over the course of training camp, hoping to find treasure in another team’s trash.

 

[jmt57]

Jeff Howe gives his assessment of both linebacker positions for NESN.

Patriots' Young Linebacking Corps Gives Bill Belichick Room for Creativity in 2010 - New England Patriots - NESN.com

After releasing controversial outside linebacker Adalius Thomas, the Patriots have a hole to fill in their lineup. Tully Banta-Cain is a candidate to take a chunk of snaps on one side, but New England is looking at rookie Jermaine Cunningham, Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, Marques Murrell and Ninkovich to fill in on the other side.

Clearly, the Pats would like to get instant production out of Cunningham, who was selected nine spots ahead of Spikes in the second round, but Cunningham is looking at a development process while transitioning from defensive end to outside linebacker. He might be an asset on the pass rush, but his coverage skills will naturally take time.

With that, Guyton's experience might actually be more of an asset at outside linebacker than on the inside. Then, it would become a competition between McKenzie and Spikes to pair up with Mayo.

Either way, the Patriots have effectively gotten younger and more versatile at linebacker. There might be some trial and error involved in finding the right combinations, but their list of options is definitely intriguing.


I have previously thought about Guyton as an OLB, where he could use his speed without being eaten up by big guards. However, I don't know if he has the right frame to be effective there in a 3-4.

 

[dhamz]

My theory is different from many. I maintain the pass rush or lack of it came from unfamiliarity by newcomers, but more from weakness against the Run. It wasn't a glaring hole, but nonetheless Teams could run against the Pats and did. At third down, it was frequently a 3rd and short, like 3rd and 2. Nobodies pass rush works well in that situation.

Toughening up the Run Defense by playing Warren/Lewis/Wright at RDE, and starting a big SILB run stuffer at ILB, and a tough run stopper at SS like Chung should solidify the Run Defense.

Facing 3rd and 8s, the Pass Rush will appear, as if by magic.

The stat I recall seeing had the Pats as the 2nd or 3rd worst defense in the league on 3rd and 8 or greater. That would make it seem that the magic pass rush seemed to not appear as much as it did everywhere else in the NFL.

In this case I would say lack of magic equaled lack of talent.

 

[jmt57]

Tom Curran looks at both the OLB and ILB units for Comcast Sports.

Linebackers must carry Pats forward

Outside linebacker is a different situation. The lack of pass rush generated by this group last season made it hard on everyone. That goes for the secondary, the defensive line and the coaching staff. For instance, if the Patriots could have made Peyton Manning at least a little uncomfortable in the pocket, maybe that fourth-and-2 in Indy could have been a punt. But they couldn’t and they took their chances (which, you may remember, didn’t work out).

The rotten presence of minimal-effort Adalius Thomas didn’t help the outside crew on the left side of the Pats defense. And Derrick Burgess didn’t make a marked impact either, even though Bill Belichick said often that Burgess was playing the spot well. The only Patriot who provided consistent pocket pressure was Tully Banta-Cain. He wound up with 10 sacks after being cast aside by the 49ers and earned himself a fat new deal. So the right side of the defense should be set. After that, we’ll see.

Hard luck Shawn Crable absolutely looks the part of an NFL outside linebacker: Tall with long arms, fast, and jacked. But his string of injuries has kept him from making any mentionable contribution since being drafted in the third round in 2008. The Patriots are anticipating his football demise, it appears, having drafted a facsimile of Crable from the University of Florida named Jermaine Cunningham. It will be interesting to see if Crable can outplay Cunningham over the course of 2010 and remain healthy while doing so. That battle is not one to be observed solely in camp because there’s too much for Cunningham to master at this point for it to be a fair fight.

The other guys in the mix at OLB are Rob Ninkovich – whose effort made AD look like a slug whenever he got on the field – Marques Murrell and Pierre Woods.



Well, I certainly hope the start of Cunningham's career is not a facsimile of Crable's.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Olb

We generally agree. I would just make a couple of comments.

1) Guyton is NOT playing OLB anytime soon. Guyton was lucky to make the team, and has a fine role as an ILB who can coverand a special teamer. There is no reason to believe tha Guyton is the answer at OLB. I don't think it is relevant that he was a passrusher in college. So was Bruschi. The bottom line for me on Guyton is that he is backup who stepped up and played reasonably well as a starter. Hopefully, we have upgraded the position with either Spikes or McKenzie.

And yes, it is just possible that both Spikes and McKenzie look great and the only place Guyton can get reps is at OLB, but I don't that will be the case. I see Guyton as a solid backup and sometime starter at ILB at least though 2011.

2) In any case, I agree on Cunningham. He MAY contribute a lot in his rookie year. I think the odds are against rookie DE conversions contributing much in their first year. But, perhaps Belichick will find a role for him.

3) Burgess will do better because he has a year in the system. He will also do better because he will have improvement at ILB and CB. He can better focus on HIS job.

The OLB position could be better than 2009 for a number of reasons:

- Derrick Burgess was pretty good in December of last year. It seemed his biggest problem was picking up the system and he finally got it down by the end of the season. If he can be the Burgess of December right off the bat, that is a huge upgrade from Burgess from September, October, and November.
- With the addition of Spikes and the return of McKenzie, Gary Guyton may move outside that might be his more natural position. He was the fastest LB in the 2008 draft and was a blitzing specialist in college.
- Cunningham might be a pass rush specialist and be very good at it.

There are no guarantees. But if those three things happen, the OLBs could be a significant improvement from last year. I still think it is the biggest question mark on the team though.

 

[Sciz]

The problem for many rookie pass rushers is that they have technique deficiencies, lack multiple pass rush moves and don't realize the level of desire necessary to succeed at the pro level. Another issue is that many come in undersized and with limited strength or power. They get so beat up playing the run, that they have nothing left when it's time to pressure the quarteback.

Which is why I think at the very least, Cunningham will be decent. He has good technique, has multiple pass-rush moves from what I've heard, and is not undersized. He's not an athletic freak who made plays on that alone (Dunlap?), but an actual football player.

 

[mgteich]

Cunningham may be the best OLB we've drafted since Banta-Cain; or not. In any case, there is no particular reason that he will buck the odds and be a top contributer in his first year as DE/OLB tweener.

Which is why I think at the very least, Cunningham will be decent. He has good technique, has multiple pass-rush moves from what I've heard, and is not undersized. He's not an athletic freak who made plays on that alone (Dunlap?), but an actual football player.

 

[jmt57]

Richard Hill from Pats Pulpit takes a look at Rob Ninkovich.

Patriots Roster Prediction #44: OLB Rob Ninkovich - Pats Pulpit

Hill projects Ninkovich to make the roster, but dropping down the depth chart as the #3 ROLB.



Predicted Role: Ninkovich should be more of the same this upcoming season. He could excel in the pre-season and become a top back-up for Banta-Cain, but don't be surprised if a player like Shawn Crable emerges and moves Ninkovich down the depth chart. He'll continue to play special teams and his value as an emergency long snapper should give him a roster spot.

Summary: Ninkovich will provide great depth on the defense and should be an adequate player if called upon. He won't be making any Pro Bowls, but he'll definitely contribute to the team.

 

[jmt57]

Hill also believes Shawn Crable finds a way to make the roster, as TBC's backup.

Patriots Roster Prediction #51: OLB Shawn Crable - Pats Pulpit


Predicted Role: Crable will back-up Tully Banta-Cain with the primary job of reaching the quarterback at the ROLB spot. He'll be used to give Banta-Cain breaks on defense. I believe that Crable will beat out Pierre Woods for a roster spot due to Crable's sheer athleticism and the potential that he shows during the pre-season- like he does every year. However, I believe that Crable will be able to stay healthy this pre-season and should end up as a reliable substitute for our linebacker core.

While I wouldn't expect Crable to push for starting time unless Banta-Cain gets injured over the course of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if Crable is given the starting nod for a couple games over the course of the season, just because his size matches up well against opposing offenses.
Look for Crable on special teams, as well, as he knocks the helmets off of return men.

Summary: Crable will finally emerge as a contributing member of the Patriots defense, and should add additional depth on special teams. He'll have a solid "rookie" year, despite having to answer the question, "How happy are you to be finally playing?" after every game.



Not that he couldn't do it, but I thought I recalled reading somewhere that Crable has never played special teams. He may need to show something there if he is to make this year's roster.

 

[TheComeback]

Re: Olb

He didn't.
He is considered an OLB because that is where he would play in the base D.
Those players also align as DE in the sub packages.
95% of the snaps Burgess played were at DE in the sub packages.

Since McGinest, Vrabel, Colvin, etc did the same thing in sub packages, there is no need to label him a DE.
He is an OLB. However he is not a capable 34 OLB so he does not get on the field in the base D.

Burgess did play in the base defense \a few times as an OLB, but more towards the end of the year. He started 6 games, though I'm not sure that can be interpreted as playing OLB in the 3-4. Prior to that he was almost exclusively a DE in the 4-man line as you have pointed out.

He appeared to be pretty weak against the run as an OLB but I'm not sure if anyone else on the team was really much better than him in that area. I'd give him the edge as a starter in the base 3-4 D at this point simply based on experience, but I think Ninkovich and Cunningham could give him a serious challenge, especially as Cunningham adapts to the NFL.

what % of his snaps did he play OLB?

The only stat I could find was that he played 57.3% of all snaps on defense. That comes from Reiss. 57.3% places him slightly above Adalius Thomas; the only other OLB with more snaps was TBC. Reiss has him listed as a DE, presumably because of his role in sub packages with 4-man lines, not because he played significant snaps at 3-4 DE. Reiss has lately been labeling him as an OLB or hybrid DE/OLB.

I don't have the percentages, but I'd guess that it's around 20% at LB, with 75% of his snaps at DE in a 4-man line and the rest at 3-4 DE, mostly when Ty Warren was injured at the end of the year and he wasn't a starter there. And they didn't keep him in for very long at all because he played pretty horribly, considerably worse than he did as an OLB where he at least offered a halfway decent pass rush. He is way too light to be a 3-4 DE on the regular at only 260 lbs.

I am basing all of this on memory alone right now, as I specifically kept an eye on him in many games, hoping he would develop into a solid LB as he gained more knowledge of the system. If I have the time and can find some more games online, I'll take a look and see if I can get a better impression of where he was playing throughout the year.

 

[Sciz]

Re: Olb

I'd be a pain to go through it play by play, but PFF does have where each player lined up for each play.

 

[patsfan-1982]

if they get 15 sacks from burgess, and TBC the same they got last year. and if they get something out of Jermaine Cunningham, and Shawn Crable, they should be ok


im hopeing the secondary and run defense will be better that should help the pass rush out a lot

 

[cstjohn17]

Re: Olb

I believe that OLB is our weakest position. That being said, everyone but Thomas is returning from 2009.

One presumes that Ninkovich (after a year of learning the system) and Cunningham will take the 2009 reps of Thomas. I would also note that Burgess has had a year to learn the system and was looking better toward the end of the year. And yes, Crable could win a roster spot and be in mix.

BOTTOM LINE
The OLB's will likely look very similar to 2009.
The overall defense should be better given improvements at ILB and CB.
Improving on a record of 5th in points scored against may be a difficult task.

I am pretty down on the OLB unit. Pretty much the worst unit in the league.

The good news is that they have a lot of depth, the bad news is that the talent is about the same from the top spot to the 6th.

The highlighted point above in bold actually makes me a little bit optimistic. The unit had its ups and downs last year but still only gave up 18 PPG, if they can stay in the same range the Pats should win a lot of games. The offense is going to be better, I don't see Brady having back to back sub par seasons.

 

[TheComeback]

Re: Olb

I'd be a pain to go through it play by play, but PFF does have where each player lined up for each play.

Thanks for the tip.

I went through the last 6 games of the regular season to take a look at where Burgess was lining up. I decided to do the last 6 games in order to save time and also because I think that will give us a better picture of where he would project to play this year.

I'm assuming that since Ty Warren is listed as a "LE" and Mike Wright is listed as a "RE" that "DLE" translates to 4-3/sub package defensive end. If not, then it doesn't appear that they're making distinction between the positions and we'll have to watch the games.

It should also be noted that PFF doesn't seem to break down when players switch positions in sub packages; for instance, they never list Banta-Cain as a DRE even though he lined up at that position frequently in sub packages. In fact, no one is listed as a DRE in any of these games.

Still, we should be able to determine Burgess role on the team by looking at the number of times he plays the run, rushes the passer, and drops into coverage.

Week 11 (Jest)
Did not start, but played 17 snaps at DLE:

6 against the run, 10 pass rushes, dropped into coverage once. He did not record any stats.

Week 12 (@ Saints)
Started at LOLB and played 26 snaps.

12 against the run, 14 rushes, 0 drops into coverage. Recorded 1 assist and 1 missed tackle.

He appears to have shared half the snaps at LOLB with Thomas in this game.

Week 13 (@ Doofins)
Did not start. Played 37 snaps at DLE:

6 against the run, 31 rushes, zero drops. Recorded a QB pressure, a tackle, and an assist.

His playing time is similar to AD, which might suggest that he again shared some time at OLB despite this not being recorded. However, since he only played the run 6 times, it seems pretty clear that the majority of his snaps came in sub packages.

Week 14 (Panthers)
Did not start. I believe this the game that AD was benched. Pierre Woods actually started over Burgess, who only played 17 snaps at DLE.

3 against the run, 13 rushes, zero drops. Recorded 1 sack, 2 QB pressures, 2 tackles, and 3 "stops," which PFF says is a play that caused an offensive failure.

Week 15 (@ Bills)
Did not start. Played 31 snaps at DLE.

7 against the run, 23 rushes, 1 drop. Had 1 sack, 4 QB pressures, 4 tackles, 4 stops.

Week 16 (Jaguars)
Did not start. 37 snaps at DLE.

6 plays against the run, 20 rushes, 0 drops. 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 1 missed tackle, 1 stop.

Week 17 (@ Texans)
It appears the Pats opened this game in some kind of sub package with Guyton and Mayo at ILB, Banta-Cain at ROLB, no LOLB, Green at RE, Wright at NT, 3 corners, 2 safeties, and Burgess again at "DLE." This sounds like a 3 man front where Burgess' role is to pass rush, not control gaps.

He played 62 snaps. 24 against the run, 36 pass rushes, and 2 drops into coverage. He had a sack, 2 QB hits, 7 tackles, an assist, and 6 stops.
-------------------------------

Again, this doesn't answer the question of how many snaps Burgess played at LB vs. 3-4 DE. Still, the team's clear lack of confidence in Burgess to play the run would suggest that they don't view him as a 3-4 DE at all, since the primary role of a 3-4 DE is to control gaps and stop the run.

That BB is obviously aware of Burgess' weakness against run blockers probably suggests that Burgess isn't going to be an every down linebacker in 2010, but should contribute as a nickel pass rusher--whether he's standing up or in the 3-point stance.

At the same time, if he really is seen as such a one-dimensional player by the Pats, then I could imagine a scenario where a younger player shows that he can play Burgess' role in training camp, and such a situation could threaten Burgess' job.

i.e., two of Cunningham, Crable, and Ninko impresses, while Murrell or Alexander makes the Pats for special teams, pushing Burgess off the roster. (I see Woods making it--he's better than Burgess against the run, knows the system, is cheap, and has ST value)